NFL DFS GPP Lineup Advice & Picks (Week 12)

Welcome to Week 12. This DFS slate is smaller with the bye weeks running rampant, but there are still plenty of fun-looking games we can attack. These are the standout players for GPP (tournaments) on DraftKings and FanDuel this weekend, complete with stacking and correlation suggestions.

Week 12 GPP DFS Advice & Picks

The players below are the ones I’m looking at for GPP considerations for Week 12.

Quarterbacks

Anthony Richardson (QB – ARI) vs. Lions | DraftKings: $5,600/FanDuel: $7,500

After a tumultuous few weeks, Anthony Richardson returned to the starting quarterback job and put up a career-high 80.3 passing grade, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). Richardson completed a season-high 20 passes on 30 attempts against the Jets and had 10 designed runs, the most by a quarterback in any game this year.

The Lions are a strong defense but they’ve allowed five different quarterbacks to rush for 29+ yards, including Sam Darnold, Geno Smith and Mason Rudolph, which bodes well for Richardson, who is a better athlete than all of them. It might still be bumpy with Richardson, but he has two top-five finishes already this year and can be a week-winner for us when he hits.

Correlation Suggestions: The Lions lead the league in yards allowed to slot receivers, making this an easy week to stack Richardson and Josh Downs, as Downs plays 85% of his snaps from the slot.

Geno Smith (QB – SEA) vs. Cardinals | DraftKings: $5,700/FanDuel: $7,400

It hasn’t all been smooth sailing for Geno Smith this year with his 11 interceptions tied for the most in the league along with Patrick Mahomes and Jordan Love. Smith has struggled to hit his ceiling due to a lack of passing touchdowns with only two multi-touchdown games, but it hasn’t stopped Smith from being a top-10 quarterback in six different games.

The Seahawks look like they’re finally trusting Jaxon Smith-Njigba downfield, which can allow them to be more multiple than in previous matchups, moving DK Metcalf around more and having a more creative offense in general. With the NFC West on the line, this game has sneaky shootout potential.

Correlation Suggestions: Smith-Njigba will be a popular pick, but don’t ignore Metcalf, who has gone for over 70 yards in five of his last seven games. Marvin Harrison Jr. looks to be a good bring-back as the Cardinals come out of their bye week. They should be finding better ways to use him.

Baker Mayfield (QB – TB) @ Giants | DraftKings: $6,100/FanDuel: $7,900

The Giants are spiraling and are exactly the type of matchup the Buccaneers need to get their season back on track after losing four straight. The Giants rank 24th against the pass in FTN’s DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), a formula that measures a team’s performance in the NFL by comparing each play to the league average.

They are also allowing the 12th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks with five different signal-callers finishing in the top 12 against them. Baker Mayfield has thrown for multiple touchdowns in six of the last seven and gets Mike Evans back this week. This recommendation is as simple as it needs to be.

Correlation Suggestions: Mayfield-Evans stacks are the clear way to go, but the brave might be rewarded by adding Malik Nabers.

Running Backs

Kareem Hunt (RB – KC) @ Panthers | DraftKings: $5,700/FanDuel: $7,500

It seems possible we get Isiah Pacheco back in time for this game and the Chiefs could do with his explosivity after Kareem Hunt has failed to have a single run over 10 yards in his seven games with the team. Hunt has seen his touches decline in the last two games with only 14 attempts in each compared to an average of 22.2 in his other games.

Yet, there is still reason to want to play him against the Panthers. Pacheco is returning from a broken fibula, the same injury we saw impact Tony Pollard and Mark Andrews for a while after their returns. It wouldn’t be shocking if Pacheco takes a while to get up to speed. The Panthers allow the most running back fantasy points, rank 32nd in run defense DVOA and have allowed six top-six weekly finishes to running backs.

Correlation Suggestions: Xavier Legette has seen a 19% target share over the last four games and Ja’Tavion Sanders has been a top-15 tight end in four of his last five games. We might not want to go overboard on this game, but there are options for small-field contest correlations.

James Conner (RB – ARI) @ Seahawks | DraftKings: $6,500/FanDuel: $7,700

Over his last seven games, James Conner has 100 total yards in five of them. He has averaged 17.3 PPR points in his last four games. The Seahawks allow the 11th-most running back fantasy points and have struggled against pass-catching backs like Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson and James Cook in recent weeks.

Over the last five games, Conner has averaged 3.2 receptions and has a 15% target share. Fresh off the bye week, Conner looks like a strong play here.

Correlation Suggestions: Pairing Conner with a Geno Smith stack is fun, but with prices what they are, it might be easier to play Conner solo.

Javonte Williams (RB – DEN) @ Raiders | DraftKings: $5,200/FanDuel: $6,200

Coming off a week where everyone expected Audric Estime to be the starter, Javonte Williams bounced back with his best fantasy performance since Week 7, finishing as the RB11 with 18.7 points.

Williams rushed for over 4.0 yards per carry for the first time since that Week 7 game. He now gets a cupcake matchup against a Raiders run defense ranked 25th in DVOA and that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to backs. When the teams met in Week 5, Williams had 16.1 PPR points and finished as the RB12, one of six top-12 finishes the Raiders have allowed this year.

Correlation Suggestions: Brock Bowers is the only Raiders player we can have any confidence in.

Wide Receivers

Malik Nabers (WR – NYG) vs. Buccaneers | DraftKings: $7,400/FanDuel: $8,200

Things started so brightly for Malik Nabers over the first four weeks with three top-six weekly finishes, but then a concussion and painful quarterback play from Daniel Jones led to bad times galore for Nabers. Tommy DeVito is by no means an upgrade, but he completed a respectful 67% of his passes in 2023 with an average depth of target (aDOT) of 7.4. His biggest barrier to success was sacks, averaging six taken per game.

Those sacks keep an offense in pass-heavy scripts, which is good news for Nabers, who should feature prominently coming out of the bye week. The Buccaneers have allowed the sixth-most wide receiver fantasy points, rank 23rd in DVOA against the pass and have allowed six different wideouts to finish with 16+ PPR points since Week 7.

Correlation Suggestions: It’ll feel more comfortable to stack Nabers with Mike Evans and Baker Mayfield, but try building a lineup with Devito, Nabers and a Bucs running back. You might not hate it.

CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL) @ Commanders | DraftKings: $7,300/FanDuel: $8,400

Nobody is going to want to play CeeDee Lamb with him being banged up and dealing with a Cooper Rush-sized problem at quarterback, but that’s what makes it intriguing for GPP contests.

Lamb saw 12 targets in Week 11 — a 22% target share, as Rush dropped back 61 times. The Commanders’ defense has taken a step forward this year but they still rank 21st against the pass and have allowed six top-eight finishes, including George Pickens in Week 10.

Correlation Suggestions: We probably want to avoid stacking Lamb with Rush, but pairing Lamb with one of the Washington running backs makes sense as it targets Dallas’ weakness.

Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA) vs. Patriots | DraftKings: $7,200/FanDuel: $8,300

The Dolphins look to be slowly righting the ship, even if it’s maybe too late to save their season. Tyreek Hill now has back-to-back games with touchdowns for the first time this year and looks to be a fun play against a Patriots defense allowing the 11th-most fantasy points to wide receivers. They just gave up 25+ points to both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in Week 11.

Correlation Suggestions: This doesn’t feel like a game environment to chase heavily but Hunter Henry has been a top-10 tight end since Drake Maye started and is a solid value this week.

Rome Odunze (WR – CHI) vs. Vikings | DraftKings: $4,800/FanDuel: $5,400

In the Bears’ first game under Thomas Brown as offensive coordinator, Caleb Williams got the ball out much quicker with the eighth-fastest time to throw among Week 11 starters. Rome Odunze also benefited with a team-leading 32% target share, resulting in 10 targets, six catches and 65 yards.

The Vikings have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. If you’re looking for a cheap receiver, Odunze looks like the strongest bet.

Correlation Suggestions: There’s not a whole lot that stands out here, but the way to beat the Bears is typically through the ground game. Aaron Jones could be worth using but his results haven’t been great lately.

Noah Brown (WR – HOU) vs. Cowboys | DraftKings: $4,200/FanDuel: $5,400

Another budget receiver worth a mention is Noah Brown who has four games over 55 receiving yards this year. He has established himself as the No. 2 WR on the Commanders, behind Terry McLaurin. The Cowboys have struggled against the pass this year and rank 27th in DVOA against No.2 WRs, as well as 29th against the pass in general. It’s speculative, but it’s something.

Correlation Suggestions: Brown is the budget option to consider if you’d rather not pair CeeDee Lamb with a Commanders running back.

A.J. Brown (WR – PHI) @ Rams | FanDuel: $8,500 (FanDuel-Only Play)

It’s been a quiet few weeks for A.J. Brown with only one top-30 finish in his last four games, but DeVonta Smith sounds unlikely to play this week. When that happens, Brown has a habit of putting up dominant performances. The Rams rank 22nd against the pass and have allowed the 10th-most wide receiver fantasy points.

Tight Ends

Brock Bowers (TE – LV) vs. Broncos | DraftKings: $6,300/FanDuel: $7,500

What more needs to be said about Brock Bowers? He’s currently on pace to break Puka Nacua’s rookie receptions record and just saw 16 targets in the Raiders’ first game with their new offensive coordinator in charge. This offense is going to flow through Bowers for the rest of the season. When these teams met in Week 5, Bowers finished as the TE2 with 23.7 PPR points.

Correlation Suggestions: Javonte Williams or Courtland Sutton make sense here, but it’s not one to target aggressively.

Hunter Henry (TE – NE) @ Dolphins | DraftKings: $4,000/FanDuel: $5,200

Ever since Drake Maye entered the starting lineup in New England, Hunter Henry has been a fantasy prospect, ranking as the TE10 in that period and finishing as a top-10 tight end in four of the six weeks he’s played.

Impressively, Henry is doing this despite only scoring a single touchdown this year. If positive regression can find its way to Henry he can be a really valuable fantasy player. Miami just allowed 123 yards to Brock Bowers a couple of weeks after allowing 124 to Trey McBride. Henry might not be as good of a player as those two, but he can accumulate enough yardage here to show out well.

Correlation Suggestions: Tyreek Hill or playing Henry solo feel like the best ways to approach this.

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