Welcome to Week 11. This DFS slate isn’t necessarily the most appealing of the year, but amongst the games that don’t stand out, some excellent high-ceiling games could provide tournament-winning upside.
Week 11 GPP DFS Advice & Picks
The players below are the ones I’m looking at for GPP considerations for Week 11.
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson (QB – PIT) vs. Ravens | DraftKings: $5,900/FanDuel: $7,800
Strap in and get used to players who play the Ravens appearing in this column because their pass defense has given us no reason to respect it thus far. The Ravens have allowed 310 more passing yards than any other team. They are the only team averaging over 300 passing yards allowed per game and have given up a league-leading 22 touchdowns.
The Ravens allow the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, which is good news for Russell Wilson, who has averaged 245 passing yards per game since becoming the starter with six passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown in that spell. The Steelers are 31st in pass rate over expected (PROE) over the last four games but with the Ravens good against the run they may have no choice but to focus on passing instead.
Correlation Suggestions: Getting carried away with stacks in an AFC North grudge match doesn’t sound like the best idea but skinny stacks of Wilson and George Pickens with a potential Derrick Henry bring back feels like a fun recipe.
Russell Wilson on 20+ yard throws this season:
53.3% completion percentage
1st among QBs with 15+ such throws ???? pic.twitter.com/tCXyeKo2Yi
— PFF PIT Steelers (@PFF_Steelers) November 14, 2024
Jameis Winston (QB – NO) @ Saints | DraftKings: $5,500/FanDuel: $7,200
The Jameis Winston experience is often a little more bit-equity than it is actual fantasy football worthy, with him completing 59% of his passes this year, which ranks 35th among quarterbacks with 50+ dropbacks, and his yards per attempt (6.59) ranks 27th. The idea of Winston can be better than the actual experience, but there are few people in the NFL that a revenge game narrative hangs over than Winston.
The Saints have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards and have struggled against wide receivers in fantasy, setting Winston up for a potentially fun day in the dome. At this price, we don’t need a massive day.
Correlation Suggestions: Winston and Cedric Tillman stacks catch a lot of upside. If you dare lean heavily into this game, Alvin Kamara has plenty of projectable volume and the Browns defense isn’t as scary as it used to be.
Anthony Richardson (QB – IND) vs NYJ | DraftKings: $5,300/FanDuel: $6,400
There’s plenty of risk involved in playing Anthony Richardson again. After all, this is a player who has one performance of more than 12 points in six games this year. We couldn’t consider this play for cash games, but in tournaments, we’re chasing upside and Richardson still has that.
Since Week 8. the Jets have allowed two different quarterbacks to rush for 46+ yards against them, which bodes well for Richardson, who has had rushing lines of 45 and 56 in his last two games. The Jets rank 27th in run defense this year and 15th against the pass, they are by no means the formidable unit they were under Robert Saleh in 2023.
Correlation Suggestions: We can keep this one pretty skinny, as stacking Richardson heavily isn’t a great idea, but Josh Downs did flash at times with Richardson and Jonathan Taylor averaged 6.7 more points in games with Richardson. Those two should be our only considerations.
Colts fans who fought the good fight after hearing that Anthony Richardson was reinstated as QB1 pic.twitter.com/gHZzOLkdZC
— Noah Compton (@nerlens_) November 13, 2024
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF) vs. Seahawks | DraftKings: $8,300 DK/FanDuel: $9,800
The return of Christian McCaffrey didn’t quite yield the massive returns we were used to in 2023 but he put up a respectable 16.7 PPR points all the same. In tournaments, we’ll need McCaffrey to cross at least the 20-point line to come close to paying off his price tag. That will start with McCaffrey being more efficient on the ground where he managed a disappointing 3.0 yards per carry in his return.
McCaffrey did however have 19 touches for 107 all-purpose yards. If he can improve his efficiency as he dusts off the rust, along with finding the end zone, he’ll be back in business. The Seahawks allow the seventh-most rushing yards per game and lead the league in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.19), as well as giving up the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs. Don’t be surprised when McCaffrey’s price is even more expensive in Week 12.
Correlation Suggestions: McCaffrey is perfectly stackable with Brock Purdy or used as a bring-back with the returning DK Metcalf.
De’Von Achane (RB – MIA) vs. Raiders | DraftKings: $7,200/FanDuel: $8,700
Monday night saw De’Von Achane put up his worst fantasy performance this year in a game Tua Tagovailoa started and finished, yet he’s still worth considering for Week 11. Before Achane’s RB24 finish against the Rams, he had scored 23+ points in every game with Tagovailoa.
That can continue with a bounce-back game against the Raiders, who rank 29th in run defense DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) and allow the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs. The Raiders have allowed three top-four weekly finishes to backs, including 26.7 points to Chase Brown in their last game before the bye week. That’s just what Achane needs to right the ship.
Correlation Suggestions: Both Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers make sense as bringbacks here as both players have been in strong form.
Jaylen Warren (RB – PIT) vs. Ravens | DraftKings: $5,300/FanDuel: $5,500
There’s not much value opening up on this slate at the running back position so far. Hopefully, that changes before the slate locks, but for now, if you’re looking for a tournament-type play, let’s talk Jaylen Warren. Over the last three games, Warren has seen 41 touches, including a season-high 16 in Week 10 while Najee Harris was banged up.
Warren totaled 95 yards and almost squeaked in a touchdown at the goal line. The Ravens have struggled against pass-catching running backs this year, allowing six different running backs over 41 receiving yards, including to both Javonte Williams and Chase Brown in their last two games. Warren was the second-most explosive running back in 2023. If the Steelers are serious about winning this year, getting Warren more involved as the games get tougher could prove pivotal.
Correlation Suggestions: Warren could be stacked with Russell Wilson and brought along with Derrick Henry with the idea the Ravens control the game and the Steelers chase it using Warren more than Harris.
Wide Receivers
Jakobi Meyers (WR – LV) @ Dolphins | DraftKings: $5,600/FanDuel: $6,200
Since Week 3, Jakobi Meyers is averaging 16.0 points per game and has stepped up in the wake of Davante Adams‘s departure, leading the team in snaps (92%) and target share (22.6%). The Dolphins’ defense hasn’t been good this year, ranking 16th against the pass in DVOA but 31st against No. 1 WRs.
Meyers might still have to deal with Gardner Minshew at quarterback but he’s got enough volume on his side and enough upside at this price to pay off.
Correlation Suggestions: Most people will lean towards playing Brock Bowers with De’Von Achane but I like pivoting to the less chalky Meyers in this spot.
Jakobi Meyers pic.twitter.com/RnAbrS9a01
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 14, 2024
Puka Nacua (WR – LAR) @ Patriots | DraftKings: $7,300/FanDuel: $8,300
With the Patriots expected to put up a mediocre fight, most people will lean towards Kyren Williams being the play in this matchup, and he’s likely the easier click in cash formats. For tournaments, where we chase upside, Puka Nacua still warrants attention.
Nacua had a 46% first-read target share in Week 10, resulting in a 31% actual target share of 14 targets, nine receptions and 98 receiving yards. The biggest hindrance Nacua has had to his value this year has been the lack of touchdowns with zero scored in his four games. However, the Patriots have allowed eight different wide receivers to score touchdowns in 10 games. This feels like a good spot for Nacua to break his barren spell. The Patriots rank 30th in DVOA against the pass, worse than they rank against the run.
Correlation Suggestions: Pairing Nacua with Hunter Henry leans into a pass-heavier script than some would expect.
Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ) vs. Colts | DraftKings: $7,100/FanDuel: $8,100
Despite all the turmoil in New York, Garrett Wilson is the WR3 in total PPR points and leads all wide receivers in total targets with 99, in part thanks to the Jets ranking fourth in PROE. The addition of Davante Adams has done little to hurt Wilson’s output, as he is averaging a 26% target share over the last four games.
The Colts’ pass defense has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards and the 12th-most fantasy points with seven different receivers scoring at least 16 points against them. The Jets might be finished, but Wilson is far from it.
Correlation Suggestions: Dare I suggest Wilson paired with Anthony Richardson? Either that or Jonathan Taylor, who won’t be popular but averages 18 points per game when Richardson plays.
Garrett Wilson this season:
???? 60 receptions (1st in NFL)
???? 663 receiving yards (3rd in NFL)
???? 35 receiving first downs (1st in NFL)G5 is HIM
Garrett Wilson should be a Jet for Life ✈#Jets pic.twitter.com/Yifr71cirN
— Harrison Glaser (@NYJetsTFMedia) November 4, 2024
George Pickens (WR – PIT) vs. Ravens | DraftKings: $7,000/FanDuel: $7,500
Over the past four weeks, George Pickens has finished as the PPR WR44, WR2, WR44 and WR4, laying out perfectly the Pickens experience. What’s undeniable, though, is that Pickens is a better receiver with Russell Wilson at quarterback, averaging 93 receiving yards over the last three games compared to 58.8 with Justin Fields throwing the ball.
Pickens also has two touchdowns in three games after recording zero in the opening six games. He should be ready to feast against a Ravens secondary that has allowed league-highs in fantasy points to wide receivers, total passing yards and touchdowns.
Correlation Suggestions: Stacking Pickens with Russell Wilson is the down-the-line play, but don’t be afraid to consider a more unusual stack with Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers or Mark Andrews and Pickens, which would generate greater leverage if it hits.
Cedric Tillman (WR – CLE) @ Saints | DraftKings: $5,300/FanDuel: $6,500
Since the Browns elevated Cedric Tillman into a featured role in Week 7, he hasn’t scored fewer than 18 PPR points, averaging 85 receiving yards per game, including 6/75/1 against a tough Chargers pass defense the last time the Browns played.
The Saints are not a tough pass defense, allowing the 10th-most wide receiver fantasy points and are tied for allowing the eighth-most completions of 20+ yards.
Correlation Suggestions: The Jameis Winston experience can be bumpy, but as mentioned earlier, he’s a fine play for tournaments. Stacking Winston, Tillman and Kamara could work out.
Curtis Samuel (WR – BUF) vs. Chiefs | DraftKings: $3,300/FanDuel: $5,000
If we’re looking to get ugly to save some money this week, can I introduce you to the Bills wide receiver who led the team in target share in Week 10? Curtis Samuel hasn’t impressed this year despite his long-standing connection with offensive coordinator Joe Brady, but there are reasons to believe he can return value against the Chiefs.
Keon Coleman is again ruled out and Dalton Kincaid could also miss this game, limiting the passing options. The Chiefs like to keep the passing game in front of them and give up shorter yardage passes, which would help Samuel, who has an average depth of target (aDOT) of 6.8. It’s thin, but if you’re looking for salary relief, it’s hard to find many cheaper options that will play as extensively.
Correlation Suggestions: If we’re punting a position and accepting a low-ceiling play we have to pair it with a high-ceiling outcome somewhere, whether that’s stacking with Josh Allen or running it back with Travis Kelce. Either will help compensate for the Samuel play.
Kayshon Boutte (WR – NE) vs. Rams | DraftKings: $3,500/FanDuel: $4,900
Another awfully thin play but one worth considering is Kayshon Boutte, who hauled in four of his six targets in Week 10, resulting in 47 yards after leading the team in snaps (98%). Boutte has three games over 46 yards in his last five games and could capitalize against a Rams defense that allows the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
Correlation Suggestions: We can use the low price on Boutte to access either Kyren Williams or Puka Nacua. Both plays are fine.
Week 11 deep sleeper: Kayshon Boutte
✅6 targets in 3 straight
✅28th among WRs in expected PPR PPG over that span (ahead of Pickens, McLaurin)
✅15.9-yard aDOT
✅Rams 20th in adjusted points allowed to WRs
✅19th in completion rate over expected allowed on deep balls
— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) November 14, 2024
Tight Ends
Mark Andrews (TE – BAL) @ Steelers | DraftKings: $4,600/FanDuel: $6,100
Over the last five weeks, Mark Andrews has averaged 46 yards per game and 1.0 receiving touchdowns. Yet, nobody wants to play him in this must-win game for the Ravens. The only tight end with more receiving touchdowns than Andrews is George Kittle, who has two more than Andrews’ five.
The Steelers have allowed two different tight ends to go over 70 receiving yards this year and have given up three receiving touchdowns to three different players. Lamar Jackson is in scintillating form. Ignoring one of his favorite pass-catchers seems like a bad idea.
Correlation Suggestions: Andrews makes too much sense in Russell Wilson and George Pickens stacks.
Dawson Knox (TE – BUF) vs. Chiefs | DraftKings: $3,500/FanDuel: $5,100
As mentioned already, Dalton Kincaid is potentially going to miss this game due to a knee injury suffered when diving for an overthrown ball from Josh Allen in Week 10. Dawson Knox was a good enough caliber starting tight end that some people were surprised when the Bills elected to use a premium pick on a tight end when they selected Kincaid.
The Chiefs have allowed the second-most tight end fantasy points this year with six different tight ends seeing 50+ receiving yards against them. With no Kincaid, as well as the other Bills’ injuries, Knox could be a very worthwhile play, even if he lacks true ceiling outcomes.
Correlation Suggestions: There’s something about this game that feels like a letdown spot, but if you feel differently, double-stacking Josh Allen with Khalil Shakir and Knox should catch a large amount of the Bills’ passing game and can be brought back with Travis Kelce, who is in strong form.
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