With another week where there are minimal bye weeks and no international games, we have another large slate with plenty of fun matchups to target. As the season goes on and the better offenses become clearer, it can be easier to narrow down the pool we want for cash games (Double Ups/Multipliers), we can lean into the projectable volume and favorability of those matchups.
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NFL DFS Cash Game Lineup Advice & Picks (Week 9)
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO) vs. CAR | DraftKings: $7800 / FanDuel: $8800
The efficiency has started to wane for Alvin Kamara with the loss of Erick McCoy, along with changes at quarterback, making his life more difficult. Kamara has been held under 67 rushing yards in every game since Week 4 and has been kept alive by his receiving production, with 10.8 targets per game over the last five games. To put that into context, no other RB has over 5.6 targets per game in that spell, and only two others have over 5.0. This week should be more straightforward for Kamara, though, with the Saints playing the woefully inept Panthers defense that has allowed the most RB fantasy points and ranks 31st in run defense DVOA (defense value over adjusted) according to FTN. Carolina has allowed six different RBs to finish as a top-12 option, including Alvin Kamara in Week 1.
Alvin Kamara has had 30 carries reaching 15+ MPH, which is 5th across the NFL & 3rd among all RB's
I thought he was washed???? pic.twitter.com/feANuKUVTa
— Trizzy Trace (@tracegirouard48) October 31, 2024
Kyren Williams (RB – LAR) vs. SEA | DraftKings: $8000 / FanDuel: $8900
At the moment there are few running backs as safe of a bet as Kyren Williams is. Williams is one of only two players to have double-digit touchdowns this far into the season, and Williams has scored at least one touchdown in every game this season while leading all RBs in red zone rush attempts (37). Earlier on in the season, Williams was inefficient, but since Week 4, he averages a respectable 4.3 yards per carry and 4.0 missed tackles forced per game. Williams plays a Seattle defense that allows the seventh-most RB fantasy points, ranks 21st in DVOA and surrenders 4.9 YPC. Any concerns that the return of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua could harm Williams’s outlook should have been eased with him seeing a season-high seven targets in Week 8.
Kyren Williams walking in each week for his weekly tuddy: pic.twitter.com/c4JowHSM4Q
— Sean Mitchell (@smitchell17) October 25, 2024
Geno Smith (QB – SEA) vs. LAR | DraftKings: $5800 / FanDuel: $7400
The Seahawks have been one of the pass-heaviest teams this year and rank third in pass rate over expected over the last four weeks, even as they’ve dealt with the loss of DK Metcalf. Geno Smith is coming off a season-low QB31 performance against the Bills, but there’s plenty of reason to believe he can bounce back here. The Rams allow the third-highest passing touchdown rate (6.1%), the second-highest yards per attempt (8.1) and rank 27th against the pass in DVOA. With reports suggesting Metcalf could play again this week, Smith looks as safe of a floor play as any QB in cash games this week.
Jakobi Meyers (WR – LV) vs. CIN | DraftKings: $5300 / FanDuel: $6300
The Bengals pass defense continues to be a fruitful one to target as they suffer the pain of their cheap owners poor decisions over the last few years. In the last two weeks, Cedric Tillman and DeVonta Smith have both scored over 18 points against this defense, and while Jakobi Meyers has questionable quarterback play from Gardner Minshew, he should still be good value here. Meyers has averaged 8.75 targets over the last four games he’s played in and scored over 17 PPR points in two of those games.
Puka Nacua (WR – LAR) vs. SEA | DraftKings: $7200 / FanDuel: $8100
The Rams haven’t looked like themselves all year, or at least they hadn’t until Puka Nacua returned in Week 8. Nacua was targetted on 41% of his routes, catching seven of nine targets and adding to rush attempts for 111 total yards, despite only playing 56% of snaps. The Rams played on Thursday night which has given Nacua a further couple of days recovery time to be ready for this game. The Seahawks have allowed at least 18.0 PPR points to a receiver each week since Week 4, and with Nacua further recovered from his knee injury, there is no reason he can’t see plenty of volume again.
If that's what Puka Nacua produces on a snap count, my god!! ???????????????????? pic.twitter.com/3CQzGSbuXG
— The Dynasty Grill (@FFDynastyGrill) October 25, 2024
De’Von Achane (RB – MIA) vs. BUF | DraftKings: $6700 / FanDuel: $7800
The Dolphins endured a miserable few weeks without Tua Tagovailoa, and while his return might be too little too late for their playoff hopes, it’s not too late for our fantasy hopes for several players. De’Von Achane‘s efficiency has plummeted in his second season, seeing regression in yards per carry, yards after contact, yards before contact and more, but where Achane has actually progressed is the receiving game. In 2023 Achane averaged 7.3 yards per reception and had 27 receptions on the year, this year Achane is at 8.4 YPR and has 29 total receptions through seven games. Achane has 23 or more points in every game that Tagovailoa has started this year and should be a strong play against a Bills defense that has seen six different RBs have six or more targets.
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC) vs. CLE | DraftKings: $5300 / FanDuel: $7100
On DraftKings, Justin Herbert stands out more on Fanduel as he’s the 17th highest priced QB on Fanduel, compared to the 19th on DraftKings, but it’s a marginal difference. Over the last four weeks, the Chargers rank second in pass rate over expected and it seems likely that the reason they leaned so run heavy to start the year was Herbert recovering from training camp injuries. In Week 8 Herbert had a season-high 24 fantasy points, a dramatic uptick from his previous season-high of 15. The Browns defense ranks 21st against the pass in DVOA, middle of the pack or worse in most metrics they excelled in when their defense was elite in 2023 and in the last three weeks, they’ve allowed two top-eight fantasy finishes to opposing QBs.
Cedric Tillman (WR – CLE) vs. LAC | DraftKings: $4300 / FanDuel: $6100
Speaking of the Browns, Cedric Tillman has quickly escalated from zero relevancy to extreme levels of interest, and while his price is still low, we can keep returning to him. Over the last two games, Tillman has 15 catches for 180 yards and two touchdowns, finishing no worse than PPR WR10 in either game. It’s fair to consider that Tillman plays the Chargers, who rank seventh-best in Pass DVOA and allow the third-fewest fantasy points to the receiver position, but at this cost, with Jameis Winston throwing the ball, Tillman doesn’t need to go nuclear to pay off his cost.
Parker Washington (WR – JAX) vs. PHI | DraftKings: $3600 / FanDuel: $5400
With Christian Kirk now out for the year due to a season-ending shoulder injury Park Washington is likely the biggest benefactor. Washington had catches of 15 yards and 21 yards as he finished Week 8 with three catches for 46 yards against the Packers. Helping Parker’s case is that Trevor Lawrence has looked much better in recent weeks ranking fifth in EPA over the last four games and completing 71% of his passes in that period. The Eagles have allowed the 10th most WR fpts and this should be a fruitful enough game for Washington to pay off his low cost.
All of Parker Washington's targets vs. the Packers.
He will have a big opportunity in Christian Kirk's role. pic.twitter.com/7T1CODQyza
— John Shipley (@_John_Shipley) October 29, 2024
Brock Bowers (TE – LV) vs. CIN | DraftKings: $6000 / FanDuel: $7700
Through eight games, Brock Bowers has had 58 or more receiving yards in six of them, and his 66.9 average per game trails only George Kittle. To put Bowers’s rookie season into further context, Puka Nacua broke the rookie receptions record in 2023 with 6.2 per game, while Bowers is currently averaging 6.5 per game and has very little standing in his way. The Bengals have allowed top-12 performances to tight ends in 50% of their games this year, and while they’re not the worst team against the position, it’s hard to build a case for them stopping the most impressive rookie tight end we’ve possibly ever seen.
Will Dissly (TE – LAC) vs. CLE | DraftKings: $3100 / FanDuel: $4800
With the uptick in passing for the Chargers, it’s benefited not only Justin Herbert but also Will Dissly, who has seen target shares of 29% and 23% over the last two games. Dissly isn’t the most prolific fantasy option, but at this price, we hardly need him to be. With 17 catches for 148 yards over the last three games, Dissly can capitalize against a Browns defense that allowed Grant Calcaterra four catches for 67 yards. Be careful of playing too many punt plays with Dissly in your cash lineup, but if helps you open up higher ceilings elsewhere, it can pay off.
FanDuel Specific
Aaron Jones (RB – MIN) vs. IND | FanDuel: $7500
FanDuel includes the Sunday night game of Minnesota against Indianapolis, which brings into play Aaron Jones who has 95 or more total yards in six of eight games this year. Jones has only three touchdowns on the year, which has held him back from true top-tier outcomes, but he’s consistently put up solid floors, which are what we want in cash games. Since Week 5 the Colts have allowed big days to Tony Pollard, Joe Mixon and Tank Bigsby with Mixon and Bigsby both finishing top-five on the week.
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