Welcome to Week 11! The DFS slate isn’t necessarily the most appealing of the year, but amongst the games that don’t stand out, there are some stronger matchups with tasty values for cash games (double-ups and multipliers).
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Brock Purdy (QB – SF) vs. SEA | DraftKings: $6600 / FanDuel: $8400
Over the last four games, Brock Purdy has scored 23 or more points in three of them, including the Week 6 matchup with the Seahawks where he scored 24.1 points, throwing for 255 passing yards and three touchdowns. The Seahawks have allowed over 280 passing yards and two touchdowns in each of their last two games, ranking top-12 in fantasy points allowed to every skill position, including quarterbacks.
Brock Purdy’s career numbers against the Seahawks:
• 12 total touchdowns
• 2 interceptions
• 1,381 passing yards
• 118.0 passer rating
• 5 wins, 0 losses pic.twitter.com/Lh7A8Vk9vh— Coach Yac ???? (@Coach_Yac) November 14, 2024
Bo Nix (QB – DEN) vs. ATL | DraftKings: $6200 / FanDuel: $7400
Week 10 brought Bo Nix‘s lowest rushing output of the season with minus five, yet Nix still managed to finish a respectable QB12 against the Chiefs, and he’s back in play this week against a weaker Falcons defense. The Falcons rank 26th against the pass in FTN’s DVOA metric (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), and they’ve allowed the seventh-most QB fantasy points this year, including a QB6 performance to Derek Carr in Week 10. Four different QBs have also rushed for between 30 and 85 yards against the Falcons and Nix has the fifth-most rushing yards among QBs.
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO) vs. CLE | DraftKings: $8200 / FanDuel: $3100
Currently, Alvin Kamara leads all running backs in total touches with 218, 17 more than Kyren Williams in second. Kamara also ranks third in total yardage (1136) and has seven touchdowns. Against stronger teams, there have been weeks when Kamara has been prone to average performances, but his volume is so strong that it’s hard ever to fade Kamara in DFS contests and over the last three weeks, Kamara averages a 29% target share. The Browns run defense ranks 15th in DVOA and gave up a season-high 24.5 points to JK Dobbins last time they were in action. In both that game and the other instance of Jameis Winston starting at quarterback, the Browns have allowed the lead-backs to average over 6.0 yards per carry. Kamara’s ceiling might be lower than it was, but for cash games, he’s still a strong play.
Kyren Williams (RB – LAR) vs. NE| DraftKings: $7900 / FanDuel: $9200
Speaking of Kyren Williams and his 2018 all-purpose touches, Williams is falling in price slightly after not scoring touchdowns in consecutive games, but there are reasons for optimism. The Patriots allow the tenth-most rushing yards per game and the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing running backs and have struggled against zone concepts, which Williams has scored five of his seven touchdowns from. Blake Corum has 26 touches on the year while Williams averages nearly that per game, he’s a solid cash game play until we see otherwise.
De’Von Achane (RB – MIA) vs. LV | DraftKings: $7200 / FanDuel: $8700
Monday night saw De’Von Achane put up his worst fantasy performance this year in a game that Tua Tagovailoa started and finished, yet he’s still worth considering for Week 11. Before Achane’s RB24 finish against the Rams, he had scored 23 or more points in every game with Tagovailoa, and that can continue with a bounce-back game against the Raiders, who rank 29th in run defense DVOA and allow the sixth-most fantasy points to RBs. The Raiders have allowed three top-four weekly finishes to RBs, including 26.7 points to Chase Brown in their last game before the bye week. That’s just what Achane needs to right the ship.
Khalil Shakir (WR – BUF) vs. KC | DraftKings: $6300 / FanDuel: $6500
Keon Coleman has already been ruled out for this game, and Amari Cooper is wearing a cast on his wrist, setting up another week with plenty of Khalil Shakir after he had a season-high 72% snap rate in Week 10. Further to the Bills woes, it seems possible that Dalton Kincaid could miss this game, as well as further concentrate on the passing game against one of the best teams in the league. Shakir has scored double-digit PPR points in all but one game and takes on a Chiefs defense, allowing the second most fantasy points to the slot, according to FantasyPoints.com – where Shakir has averaged 82% of his snaps in the last two games.
Khalil Shakir WILL GET PEPPERED THIS WEEK
KC has the third-highest rate of two high (61.3%)
per @FantasyPtsDataSince Week 7 vs. two high Khalil Shakir:
30% target share
40.5% 1st read shareADD ON TOP OF THIS THAT…
KC vs. slot WRs
2nd-highest fppg allowed
4th-highest… pic.twitter.com/zBVOUsz3Ga— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) November 13, 2024
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET) vs. JAX | DraftKings: $8000 / FanDuel: $6500
Entering Week 11, Amon-Ra St. Brown is looking to continue his streak of seven weeks with a touchdown in each game, and St. Brown has also scored 18 or more PPR points in six of his nine games. The Jacksonville Jaguars allow the sixth-most WR fantasy points, rank dead-last in pass defense DVOA and allow a league-high passer rating of 106.2 to opponents. This is simply a bad defense that meets a wide receiver in excellent form, which is the focus of his team’s passing offense.
Cedric Tillman (WR – CLE) vs. NO | DraftKings: $5300 / FanDuel: $6500
Since the Browns elevated Cedric Tillman into a featured role in Week 7, he hasn’t scored fewer than 18 PPR points, averaging 85 receiving yards per game, including 6/75/1 against a tough Chargers pass defense the last time the Browns played. The Saints are not a tough pass defense, allowing the tenth-most WR fantasy points and tied for allowing the eighth-most completions of 20 yards or more. Tillman is a little less safe than those above him, but on a week where there isn’t much running back value, we’ll have to pay down somewhere.
Cedric Tillman pic.twitter.com/k9J9gkXLlA
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 7, 2024
Dawson Knox (TE – BUF) vs. KC | DraftKings: $3500 / FanDuel: $5100
As mentioned already, Dalton Kincaid will potentially miss this game due to a knee injury suffered when diving for an overthrown ball from Josh Allen in Week 10. Dawson Knox was a good enough calibre starting tight end, and some people were surprised when the Bills elected to use a premium pick on a tight end when they selected Kincaid. The Chiefs have allowed the second-most tight end fantasy points this year, with six different tight ends seeing 50 or more receiving yards against them. With no Kincaid, as well as the other Bills losses, Knox could be a very worthwhile play, even if he lacks true ceiling outcomes.
Brock Bowers (TE – LV) vs. MIA | DraftKings: $5800 / FanDuel: $7200
Despite the misery at QB in Las Vegas, Brock Bowers is on track to beat Puca Nacua’s rookie receptions record and he’s scored over 15 points in four of his last five games. Bowers is simply everything he was billed to be. Bowers is averaging 9.8 targets per game over his last five games, and despite the situation in Vegas being bleak, we simply can’t find that kind of volume elsewhere in the tight end position.
FanDuel Only
Over on FanDuel Sunday Night Football is included in the main slate, so don’t forget these additions for your lineups.
Chase Brown (RB – CIN) vs. LAC | FanDuel: $6800
The biggest barrier Chase Brown has had to his ceiling was the lack of involvement in the passing game, with the Bengals having had concerns about his pass protection in the earlier parts of his career, and this has kept him from being a committee back, now though, that’s no longer the case. Brown saw a 20% target share in Week 10 and was trusted in pass protection situations, which led to him playing a season-high 86% snaps. Brown has averaged 24.6 PPR points over his last two games and looks set to be a league-winner down the stretch. The Chargers are a tough opposition, but when we have high-volume and good abilities, we can look past that.
Chase Brown saw a season high pass pro snaps in Week 10 pic.twitter.com/bxPFJBBpUt
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) November 12, 2024
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC) vs. CIN | FanDuel: $7300
The Bengals rank 25th in pass defense DVOA and allow the fifth-most QB fantasy points this year, including four top-4 weekly finishes. Justin Herbert has been a top-12 quarterback in each of his last three games, with poor returns from the early season a thing of the past. Herbert might lack passing options, but he remains one of the better QBs in the league, and this is an excellent matchup.
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