Analyzing air yards for fantasy football is valuable for prognosticating what might be coming for certain receivers. If a wide receiver saw a tremendous number of air yards but fell entirely short on receiving yards and receptions, we could assume that will regress in his favor in future games. Conversely, if a player saw a huge spike in receiving yards but did not see the corresponding air yards, that could mean a tremendous number of yards after the catch, which could vary weekly.

Looking at a player’s intended usage and not just the surface-level outcomes is a way to more accurately value players in fantasy football and help with fantasy start-sit decisions. I hope you join me every Wednesday during the regular season for our breakdown of the week that was in Fantasy Football air yards.

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Week 12 Air Yards Analysis & Fantasy Football Takeaways

Below is a chart representing air yards and receiving data courtesy of the 4for4 Air Yards App. Air yards are a tool that is freely accessible everywhere, and you can find the site or format that works best for you.

This list represents the top 50 players from most to fewest air yards. From Joshua Palmer‘s 202 air yards down to George Kittle’s 51. Also included in this list are each player’s targets, receptions, average depth of target (aDOT), target share and share of the team’s air yards.

Showcasing all of these pieces of data together with a heat map provides opportunities for a quick eye test from this chart and gives us many takeaways from Week 12. In this weekly piece, we will dig into the four biggest things that jump out to me from this dataset, which might help with fantasy start sit decisions, fantasy football trade values and more.

Top Takeaways From Week 12 Air Yards Data

Air Yards Fallacy Emerges in Week 12

While air yards can be a strong predictor of success long-term, there is one downside to tracking it week-to-week and trying to draw short-term conclusions. Often, high air yards for a player are tied to a very high average depth of target (aDOT) on the balls thrown their way. As you might expect, a higher aDOT means a lower likelihood that the ball will be caught. Quarterbacks become less accurate the farther they throw (traditionally), so a wide receiver or tight end who racks up air yards but relies on long bombs only to get them might not see the future production we want. This was never more evident than in Week 12.

Sorting the table above by aDOT, the receiving yard totals for the nine highest aDOTs are: 39, 0, 38, 43, 48, 54, 31, 41, and 48. None of those are what we might even describe as strong numbers for fantasy football. Conversely, the receiving yard totals for the nine lowest aDOTs are: 60, 133, 117, 82, 86, 27, 64, 82, and 121. All but one of those totals is higher than every total in the high-aDOT list. What should we learn from this? Do we avoid high aDOT guys altogether? No, but we should compare what they get in air yards compared to their volume of targets. Low targets and high aDOT is a bad combination for consistent success. High air yards are nice, but as is always the case in fantasy football, volume is king.

The Best Version of Trey McBride

Despite still not having a touchdown in 2024, one of the best PPR plays of the week in all positions was Trey McBride. His 15 targets, 12 receptions, and 133 yards produced one of his best games of the season, and it was all because the Cardinals and Kyler Murry used him in the perfect way. McBride had the second-lowest aDOT of any player on this list for Week 12 (6.0 air yards). But he was peppered with targets all over the short and intermediate parts of the field, and the Cardinals let him gain tons of yards after the catch.

As Arizona figures out how to get Marvin Harrison Jr. going and get him targets down the field, this is what they need to do with McBride. Don't clog up the long passing lanes, but rather get the sure-fire receptions from one of the game's most reliable, young, athletic tight ends. The touchdowns will come, that much we can be pretty sure. With 35 targets in his last four games, it's clear McBride is back to being the elite tight end he was drafted to be last summer.

Los Angeles Chargers Role Reversal

In Week 11, Quentin Johnston led all receivers in air yards. In Week 12, that accolade switched to Joshua Palmer, who led all receivers with 202 air yards on eight targets. Perhaps because he literally couldn't hang onto a single ball, Johnston was near the very bottom of this list with just 59 air yards. It was quite a shocking performance from Johnston as the Chargers tried to get him going with crossers where he could use his speed and sideline passes where he could easily gain 10 yards. When that didn't work, and because they were trailing, the Chargers reverted to Palmer and his 25-yard aDOT.

Based on the results, this does not look like a pattern that should continue. Palmer was one of the players who had loads of air yards and a high aDOT, but could only muster a meager 38 yards. Palmer's eight targets were three more than he had in any game all season, so unless the Chargers decided on an offensive philosophical change, they are likely to go back to the (usually) reliable trio of Johnston, Ladd McConkey, and Will Dissly. If Palmer gets another 7-10 targets again in Week 13, then we will need to reevaluate that thinking.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is Not Going Away

Calvin Ridley has to be wondering what a guy has to do to get a touchdown pass from Will Levis. Ridley has a touchdown in just two of Tennessee's games despite having more than double the number of targets of any receiver or tight end on the roster. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (NWI), on the other hand, now has a touchdown in six of the Titans' last seven games despite having more than three catches just once in that span. Five targets and 116 air yards represent a tiny uptick in usage for NWI, so it might be worth monitoring if the balance of opportunity between Ridley and Westbrook-Ikhine is starting to even out.

The most striking number of NWI's week was the fact that he finished Week 12 with the third-highest air yards share of any player (55%). For comparison, the league leader among wide receivers for 2024 is A.J. Brown at 49.6%, so NWI's week was truly elite. The touchdowns are probably fluky and could regress at any moment, but if the usage keeps ticking up and the air yards remain high, Westbrook-Ikhine could continue to serve as a borderline WR2/WR3 all season.

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