Analyzing air yards for fantasy football is valuable for prognosticating what might be coming for certain receivers. If a wide receiver saw a tremendous number of air yards but fell entirely short on receiving yards and receptions, we could assume that will regress in his favor in future games. Conversely, if a player saw a huge spike in receiving yards but did not see the corresponding air yards, that could mean a tremendous number of yards after the catch, which could vary weekly.
Looking at a player’s intended usage and not just the surface-level outcomes is a way to more accurately value players in fantasy football and help with fantasy start-sit decisions. I hope you join me every Wednesday during the regular season for our breakdown of the week that was in Fantasy Football air yards.
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Week 11 Air Yards Analysis & Fantasy Football Takeaways
Below is a chart representing air yards and receiving data courtesy of the 4for4 Air Yards App. Air yards are a tool that is freely accessible everywhere, and you can find the site or format that works best for you.
This list represents the top 50 players from most to fewest air yards. From Quentin Johnston‘s 179 air yards down to DeMario Douglas‘ 58. Also included in this list are each player’s targets, receptions, average depth of target (aDOT), target share and share of the team’s air yards.
Showcasing all of these pieces of data together with a heat map provides opportunities for a quick eye test from this chart and gives us many takeaways from Week 11. In this weekly piece, we will dig into the four biggest things that jump out to me from this dataset, which might help with fantasy start sit decisions, fantasy football trade values and more.
Top Takeaways From Week 11 Air Yards Data
Chargers Firing on All Cylinders
During the season, the LA Chargers ranked 25th in the NFL, with a 51% passing rate, over 11 weeks. However, in the last three games, that number has exploded to 60.3% as LA faces teams forcing them into shootouts, and Justin Herbert has been playing out of his mind. During that time, Herbert's target tree was pruned a few branches, and he focused only on three players: Quentin Johnson, Ladd McConkey, and Will Dissly. In Week 11, both Johnston and McConkey ended the week top seven in total air yards, and both had at least a 26% target share.
I wouldn't worry at all when I look and see Johnston had only 48 receiving yards on eight targets. He led the NFL in air yards last week and saw a full 40% of the Chargers' air yards in the game against Cincinnati. Johnston had problems with drops early last year, but that was mostly corrected in his sophomore season. When I look at those numbers, I see two receivers attached to the most accurate quarterback in the league right now. The Chargers have one of the most efficient offenses in the league right now, and both of their primary wide receivers have clear "Buy" plays.
Don't Panic Over Calvin Ridley
Like Quentin Johnston, Calvin Ridley had a massive air yards number and share of the Titans' air yards but could only come away with 58 yards on six targets. This was more of a product of the strong Minnesota Vikings secondary and pass rush than a problem with Will Levis getting Ridley the ball or Ridley catching his targets. With DeAndre Hopkins gone, Ridley remains a wide receiver who should have one of the highest target shares for the rest of the season.
Ridley has a 26.5% target share over the last three weeks and only has one game in his last six with fewer than eight targets. Since Week 8, Calvin Ridley is the WR12 in half-PPR fantasy points per game as the running backs on his team keep getting hurt and there are very few other legitimate receiving options outside of Nick Westbrook-Ikhine.
What are the Ravens Doing with Diontae Johnson?
When the Baltimore Ravens traded for wide receiver Diontae Johnson, there were so many other areas of need for the team (namely secondary help) that many NFL analysts wondered aloud exactly what they were doing. Those concerns have turned out to be true, as Johnson has played 30%, 8%, and 18% of snaps in his three games with Baltimore. He is essentially a backup wide receiver. I guess that makes sense if you lose Zay Flowers or Rashod Bateman, but right now, Johnson has been reduced to nothing.
Then, there are the situations in which they use him. On Sunday, Johnson had two targets and 68 total air yards. That's 34 air yards per attempt, a number that doesn't at all make sense for what type of receiver Diontae Johnson is. According to Pro Football Reference, Johnson has never had an average depth of target (aDOT) over 12.7 yards and that year (2023), was the only time in his career he had a number over 10 yards. If the Ravens just wanted Johnson so they could outscore teams, I guess I can understand that. But for now, his lack of usage and type of usage just looks silly.
Brock Bowers is a Wizard
Brock Bowers set several rookie tight end records on Sunday, including 16 targets, 13 receptions, and 126 receiving yards. He scored a touchdown and remained the one consistent, reliable part of the Las Vegas Raiders offense. But what he achieved compared to what he was given to work with on Sunday is nothing less than some kind of football voodoo magic that only Brock Bowers can control.
His average depth of target (aDOT) on his 16 targets was just 4.0 yards. No other player in the top 50 for the week had an aDOT lower than 6.5 yards. He turned 64 air yards (43rd among receivers in Week 11) into 126 receiving yards (fifth-most among all pass-catchers last week). Bowers had a 42% target share and 43% air yards share, but his most impressive number of the week was his 78 yards after the catch. On the season, he now has 120 more yards after the catch than any other tight end in football.
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