Analyzing air yards for fantasy football is a valuable exercise for prognosticating what might be coming for certain receivers. If a wide receiver saw a tremendous number of air yards but fell entirely short on receiving yards and receptions, we could make an assumption that will regress in his favor in future games. Conversely, if a player saw a huge spike in receiving yards but did not see the corresponding air yards, that could mean a tremendous number of yards after the catch, which could always vary from week to week.
Looking at a player’s intended usage and not just the surface-level outcomes is a way to more accurately value players in fantasy football and help with fantasy start-sit decisions. I hope you join me every Wednesday during the regular season for our breakdown of the week that was in Fantasy Football air yards.
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Week 10 Air Yards Analysis & Fantasy Football Takeaways
Below is a chart representing air yards and receiving data courtesy of the 4for4 Air Yards App. Air yards are a tool freely accessible everywhere, and you can find the site or format that works best for you.
This list represents the top 50 players from most to fewest air yards. From Ja’Marr Chase‘s 243 air yards down to Evan Engram‘s 53. Also included in this list are each player’s targets, receptions, average depth of target (aDOT), target share and share of the team’s air yards.
Showcasing all of these pieces of data together with a heat map provides opportunities for a quick eye test from this chart and gives us many takeaways from Week 8. In this weekly piece, we will dig into the four biggest things that jump out to me from this dataset, which might help with fantasy start sit decisions, fantasy football trade values and more.
Top Takeaways From Week 10 Air Yards Data
Darnell to the Mooney
At the beginning of the season if I asked you to tell me who the top five players in overall air yards would be after 10 weeks, how many guesses would it have taken for you to say Darnell Mooney's name? 200? 400? After 167 more in Week 10, Mooney is now fifth in the entire NFL with 954 air yards. With a 24% target share and a 38% air yards share on the season, it's clear that Mooney might be the best late-round wide receiver taken in 2024 fantasy football drafts.
After Drake London has been banged up the last two weeks (and still played), Mooney has stepped right into the WR1 role. His 40% air yards share number this past week is an absolute elite rate. Combine that with his 10 targets and Mooney has a path to a starting wide receiver role in our lineups every week for the rest of the year. He and Drake London are now both in the top six in overall targets this year and Atlanta's pass-friendly offense is putting them in position to smash each and every week.
A Tale of Two Long aDOTs
Both Jameson Williams (140 air yards) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (86 air yards) sit in the top 20 overall for Week 10. Interestingly, both also saw an average depth of target (aDOT) of just over 28 yards - two of the three highest numbers in the league this week. However, massive air yards and targets thrown way downfield can sometimes result in huge games, and sometimes they can't.
MVS was able to turn his targets into 109 receiving yards and two touchdowns on just three targets. Williams, on the other hand, had an inefficient Jared Goff throwing to him and could only muster 53 yards on five targets. Air Yards are a cause, not an effect, so it's important to judge what kind of air yards a player is getting. Williams may need to go back to earlier in the year when he had a lower aDOT to break out of this funk he is in.
A CeeDee Lamb Problem
There are 50 players on this list that have been imported into the table above, and there are many more who make up a much longer list You would have to go all the way down to player 78 on that list until you found another wide receiver or tight end who had a lower aDOT than CeeDee Lamb's 5.5 yards from Week 10. This is a huge problem. Lamb's aDOT on the season is 8.4 yards and he is top five in the league with 288 yards after the catch. With Cooper Rush or Trey Lance now under center, Lamb may have a hard time maintaining those numbers.
Normally, a player catching passes with a 5.5-yard aDOT is a running back. Christian McCaffrey's aDOT in his first game back last week was 5.3 yards. Lambs is not going to be able to continue putting up big numbers for fantasy managers if he can't get more than bubble screens and short crossing patterns. The 10 targets he saw on Sunday are encouraging, but his downfield presence is minimized, he could legitimately drop out of the top 10 wide receivers in fantasy football.
Don't Panic Over Your (non-Chase) Bengals
If you saw Ja'Marr Chase's box score from Thursday night (243 air yards, 264 receiving yards, 50% air yards share, 32% target share), you might think there was nothing left for anyone else on the team. Then you would see the 11 yards for Jermaine Burton and the 30 yards for Mike Gesicki and you would be convinced you were right. However, there is no need to worry if you are in deep leagues and are starting Jermaine Burton and Mike Gesicki. Both finished in the top 20 in overall air yards for Week 10.
The Bengals have evolved into such a pass-friendly team that there is plenty to go around to the other non-Chase pieces. Cincinnati is sixth in the NFL with a 63% pass rate and pass attempts per game 35.8. They are top ten in completion percentage, passing first downs per game, and passing yards percentage. The Bengals are the number one team in the NFL in pass rate over expectation this season. The two Chases (Ja'Marr and Brown) are going to get their share, but there is still plenty left over for the other pieces, they just need to do a better job about catching their targets.
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