It’s a Thursday night in the sports world but we only have one NBA game. Still, playing as many slates as possible of DFS is good for your return on investment (ROI) on the season as long as you’re a plus-EV player, which you should be as you clicked on this article.
Usually, this is where I preach to monitor injury news as injuries could open up significant value plays across all positions. However, with only one game, there’s only so much to monitor. Still, keep an eye out.
Let’s break down the top plays for this showdown slate and identify where we can find leverage against the field.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $13,000
- FanDuel: $17,000
For the potential free space option of the night, we have Luka Doncic. Early ownership has him at 90% — for good reason. He has the clear best chance of breaking the slate and it only helps that he’s in one of the best matchups you can ask for. Utah paces up Dallas, is the fourth-worst defense in the league and allows the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards.
Doncic is officially listed as questionable with a right knee contusion, which might keep ownership off him, but that shouldn’t limit him much, if at all. Doncic can post 60-70 points tonight. His 50-point floor makes him someone you need to find a roster spot for. He doesn’t have to be rostered as a Captain or MVP necessarily but get him in there. Kyrie Irving ($10,400 on DraftKings; $14,500 on FanDuel) will also garner ownership but I’ll be generally underweight on him as I’d rather get to Doncic.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $8,000
- FanDuel: $13,000
It’s tough to compare pricing on a showdown slate to previous slates. Even after John Collins has taken over the starting role with a hurt Walker Kessler, his scoring has shot up. I don’t expect him to score 20+ points with 50+ fantasy points like he did Tuesday against Phoenix, but he is seeing a usage bump with additional minutes.
Dallas is better than the average defense but with both teams expected to push the pace and Collins seeing the floor around 35 minutes, his production should easily match his pricing. He’ll have a safe floor and makes for a great choice in cash games. Lauri Markkanen ($8,800 on DraftKings; $13,500 on FanDuel) is another solid floor option with the high usage expected out of both Utah frontcourt pieces tonight.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $6,600
- FanDuel: $9,000
Klay Thompson hasn’t been the most consistent player in the league, averaging around 25 fantasy points per game, but he’s failed to reach that mark in six games this season. He’ll attempt his threes but his rebounds and assists don’t exactly bolster his fantasy output. The thing is, he has the chance for a ceiling game against Utah with his shooting alone. He attempted 12 shots from deep against Golden State. That number probably won’t be replicated tonight, the Jazz do allow the fourth-most three-point attempts in the league.
As Thompson has settled into his new role on the Mavericks, he’s slowly seen more minutes and higher usage. He’s a solid cash option but early projections show relatively low ownership in GPPs, so he makes a solid option in the bigger field contests. The other option here is Keyonte George ($7,600 on DraftKings; $12,000 on FanDuel), who’s averaging the fourth-most fantasy points per game over his last five contests but is projected for around single-digit ownership.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $4,600
- FanDuel: $8,000
Pick your option for a starting Maverick and throw him in this section and I’ll probably agree with it. Naji Marshall has averaged 29 minutes a game after starting his last four contests. He’s posted a 20-point and 18-point outing over his last five contests. Expecting to start against a Jazz team full of holes is an option that makes his pricing quite lovely.
I project Marshall for over 20 fantasy points tonight and he’s shown his ceiling is pushing 40. Again, as a reminder, Utah has the least efficient defense in the league and has allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing frontcourts. Marshall is in an awesome spot for a ceiling game. Someone who won’t be as highly owned but is a lot more risky is Quentin Grimes ($1,600 on DraftKings; $7,000 on FanDuel). He saw the floor for almost 30 minutes against Golden State but his fantasy production is spotty, so I’d stick to him in GPP lineups.
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