Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate. I hope you had a profitable weekend as we continue on this season. Be sure to monitor injury news as injury tags are scattered across tonight’s slate with some big names like Ja Morant, Karl-Anthony Towns and C.J. McCollum.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money.
We have a seven-game slate on DraftKings and a nine-gamer on FanDuel — both great slates for finding value and getting in the money. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $12,000
- FanDuel: $12,500
It feels almost like cheating when Nikola Jokic is on the slate because who else could you put beside him with anything close to his ceiling? The Nuggets center is averaging over 70 DraftKings fantasy points a game with a peak of 92.
That is a unique ceiling that calls for exposure especially considering his floor on DraftKings this year is 60 points. That’s insane.
Yes, it will be a pace-down spot against New York but with Karl-Anthony Towns potentially limited or out with the left calf contusion, Jokic is still an easy click, with enough expected value on the slate where you should be able to afford him.
Tyrese Haliburton (PG, SG – IND)
- DraftKings: $8,100
- FanDuel: $8,400
It has been an up-and-down season for Tyrese Haliburton, who opened the season priced at $9,300 on DraftKings. He is now down to $8,100 with a floor at $8,000 on the season. In terms of performance, he’s bottomed out with just north of 10 fantasy points but he is capable of over 50.
Tonight, the stars should align for the Pacers guard. The Pelicans have been the walking wounded of late. While C.J. McCollum may make his return tonight, this game still sits with a 228 total and the Pelicans have been a struggle bus of late.
On the season, New Orleans ranks second-worst in defensive efficiency. Despite the pace-down spot and his volatile play, I still love Haliburton here.
Scottie Barnes (PG, SF, PF – TOR)
- DraftKings: $8,500
- FanDuel: $8,100
Since returning from injury, Scottie Barnes has picked up where he left off, putting up an 18-point effort, recording 48 FanDuel and 45 DraftKings points. Considering at one point he was priced over $9,000 and scored 60+ fantasy points a month ago, this feels like buying low on the Toronto star.
Of course, it is important to note Toronto is on the second half of a back-to-back. With an injury as unique as an orbital fracture, I’d keep an eye out for any potential news if Barnes will be limited at all, but I wouldn’t expect that to be the case.
Barnes’ usage has stayed steady at 25% all season. Given his different positional eligibilities, it will be easy to work him into your lineups tonight.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG – OKC)
- FanDuel: $11,000
For a quick FanDuel-only option, we have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. If you told me someone outscored Jokic tonight, Gilgeous-Alexander would be the clear choice for doing so.
The Thunder guard consistently produces 50+ fantasy points and he recently tallied 82 against the Clippers a few weeks ago. It’s not the best schematic matchup but you have to trust pure talent sometimes, and he is someone to trust.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $10,200
- FanDuel: $10,400
On DraftKings, it’s been nearly a month since Jayson Tatum has failed to reach 40 fantasy points. It was the only time he’s done so all season. On FanDuel, it’s only happened twice. He’s consistently on the court for 37-38 minutes, has a usage rate above 30% and Boston has a fine matchup at home as a double-digit favorite.
The Clippers have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards. Tatum is projected for around 50. He’s been averaging more than that on the year. He may be one of the higher-rostered players on the slate. He’s a great cash game option.
- DraftKings: $8,700
- FanDuel: $8,500
With the Pelicans’ lineup the way it currently is, all of the usage should funnel through Brandom Ingram. C.J. McCollum is questionable but even if he plays he’d likely be on a pitch count.
Indiana is a top-10 paced team, which will increase the possessions and opportunities for Ingram. His price has actually seen a slight dip. The Pacers own a bottom-10 defensive unit and the floor is high for what should be a high-rostered Ingram.
- DraftKings: $6,000
- FanDuel: $6,400
With Luka Doncic out, a lot is being moved around within the Dallas Mavericks lineup. I know Dallas is playing in a back-to-back but if we can use the small sample size of yesterday, P.J. Washington is an absolute smash play.
The Mavericks forward has started each of the last four games and tallied 40 minutes yesterday in an overtime game and 36 the game before. Expecting similar output tonight, he’s projected over 35 fantasy points in a money matchup.
Atlanta owns a bottom-10 defense with the second-fastest pace in the league. It is a back-to-back, but Washington is looking like one of the best plays on the slate for someone who could easily go past 40 points tonight on both sites.
If you’re looking for a FanDuel-only option, I’d go with De’Aaron Fox ($8,900). It’s a tough matchup but Fox has been a minutes monster and offers late swap options if he’s heavily rostered across your lineups.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $9,100
- FanDuel: $9,400
This is not exactly a sneaky play as the Clippers run through James Harden with a usage rate north of 30%. Early rostership projections appear that Harden is falling through the cracks, with under 10% of the field slotting him into lineups.
I know Boston isn’t exactly a prime matchup but if there’s any league where I buy into the “get up for a big game” narrative, it would be the NBA. Harden projects for around 1.35 points per minute. Given he sees the floor for roughly 35 minutes, he already projects well in this game. With his lower ownership, high usage and high ceiling, he slots as solid GPP play.
- DraftKings: $6,700
- FanDuel: $6,700
For another player who projects well but is only seeing 7-9% expected ownership, we have Myles Turner. As discussed before with Haliburton, the Pelicans are easy targets right now for opponents in DFS. They allow the fifth-most points to opposing centers on DraftKings and Yves Missi is questionable tonight.
Turner has averaged over 33 fantasy points a night and has gone past the 50-point benchmark twice already this season. I support chasing that kind of ceiling at home against New Orleans when he is seeing minimal ownership.
- DraftKings: $8,300
- FanDuel: $8,900
Early projections show Jalen Johnson just shy of 40 points with about an 18% chance of finding himself in the optimal lineup. Considering he also is only projected around 5% ownership, he makes an awesome leverage play for some deep field GPPs.
With a total of around 238, there are points to be had. He’s playing 36 minutes a night, will continue a high floor of usage and has been consistent, only dropping below 35 fantasy points once this season. Johnson’s ceiling potential leaves a bit to be desired but I’d much rather be early than late and he’s still shown he’s capable of reaching that 60 fantasy point threshold.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $4,900
- FanDuel: $5,300
If there is ever a starter who is priced at sub-$5,000 (or $5,300 on FanDuel), there’s usually a good chance they will return 5X or better value. Moussa Diabte has started each of the last two games and has tallied 28 and 22 fantasy points, respectively, with even better outputs on FanDuel.
He’s averaged over 30 minutes and has been a rebound machine. Yes, he doesn’t score but that’s the crazy thing — he’s put up respectable fantasy numbers in his two starts with zero scoring to go with it. Seriously, one point across the two games.
Orlando is still expected to start Goga Bitadze down low. With the cheap price, Diabte should get see over a 5x return again and might be the best value option on both sites.
- DraftKings: $3,500
- FanDuel: $4,100
With Cade Cunningham doubtful with a left sacroiliac joint sprain, Marcus Sasser is expected to see another increased role tonight as Detroit hosts Toronto. When Cunningham missed Saturday’s game, Sasser saw a boost in playing time from his average of around 11 minutes to 21 minutes.
Sasser scored 13 points with a pair of assists and rebounds to round out a 20 DraftKings points fantasy night. His price hasn’t changed much and he should still see a similar role. Plus, the matchup is a lot friendlier.
Not only is Toronto playing in a back-to-back but they are a bottom-10 league defense and pace-up a slow Pistons team. If you need a punt option, Sasser is your guy, assuming Cunningham remains out. If you’re looking to heavily roster Pistons, Tim Hardaway Jr. ($4,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel) is the other big value option.
- DraftKings: $4,800
- FanDuel: $5,600
There are a lot of question marks for Portland with Jerami Grant and Scoot Henderson both questionable but the total still sits around 232 with Robert Williams expected to start as he is off the injury report. He should offer a smash value option, at least on DraftKings.
Williams should average over 1.00 points per possession and projects for at least 25 minutes against a Memphis team that ranks third in pace of play. The efficiency might not be crazy but the opportunity and minutes will be there for the Portland frontcourt piece who has shown ceiling ability to manage 45+ fantasy points.
Of note, if Karl-Anthony Towns misses tonight for the Knicks, Jericho Sims ($3,500 on DraftKings; $3,800 on FanDuel) expects to be mega-chalk.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
