NBA DFS Lineup Picks & Advice: Monday (11/11)

We’ve got an exciting five-game slate ahead of us this Monday night in the NBA. Usually, this is where I preach to monitor injury news as injuries could open up significant value plays across all positions. However, no one exactly jumps off the page with only a few questionable tags tonight. Some injuries are already baked into current projections, so be aware of those at least.

Still, anything can change with back-to-backs and load management, so stay sharp. The Cavaliers-Bulls game has the highest total around 238 and is projected to be the highest rostered game on the slate. Value hunters should pay particular attention to Oklahoma City, where everyone in the rotation will get a bump from the absence of Chet Holmgren.

Let’s break down the top plays at each position and identify where we can find leverage against the field.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

Let’s break down the top plays at each position and identify where we can find leverage against the field.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer

NBA DFS Core Plays

Domantas Sabonis (C/PF – SAC)

DraftKings: $9,500
FanDuel: $9,800

Honestly, flip a coin here on the centers in this game (on DraftKings at least). Between Domantas Sabonis and Victor Wembanyama ($10,500 on DraftKings; 11,400 on FanDuel), both offer similar ceilings, similar floors and face off against each other. I’d lean toward more exposure for Sabonis in cash lineups and Wembanyama in GPPs but they’re each viable in both contest types.

In the end, Sabonis is the choice. The Kings’ big man has been a model of consistency, averaging over 50 fantasy points a game without going under 40 points once all season. He’s shown up in tough matchups and offers a ceiling over 60. You can expect him to play around 35 minutes. His usage is at a solid 20% on the season. Sabonis is going to be a solid option on almost any slate, so it shouldn’t take much to convince you to find him on rosters.

Brandon Ingram (PG/SF/PF – NOP)

DraftKings: $8,600
FanDuel: $8,500

I know he’s coming off a pretty tough performance against Orlando on Friday but Brandon Ingram is averaging just shy of 40 fantasy points per game. That number should only increase given the injuries plaguing this team. With Zion Williamson, Dejounte Murray and a host of role players out, Ingram’s usage has jumped. He’s averaged a 30% usage rate this year but his last four games are 37%, 41%, 24% and 32%.

The 24% usage rate was with Williamson in. Considering he’s out again, this offense should run through Ingram. I project him for around 45 fantasy points and he should see the floor for 35+ minutes in what should be a tightly-contested matchup. He might take on ownership but I plan on finding a way to slot Ingram into most of my lineups tonight and go overweight to the field.

If you want a different Pelican, Jose Alvarado ($6,200 on DraftKings; $6,700 on FanDuel) is going to be high-owned tonight as well. He’s playing 35 minutes in the current rotation, so it makes sense. The opportunity will be there.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG – OKC)

DraftKings: $10,000
FanDuel: $10,200

Oklahoma City has quickly become a priority in ownership with Chet Holmgren out and Isaiah Hartenstein continuing to miss time. Even before that, I loved Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and now usage should skyrocket. Maybe not skyrocket but it should comfortably be over 30% and he should see a slight uptick in minutes.

He’s been consistently averaging over 45 fantasy points and has only dipped below 35 once all season. He has shown ceiling performances of over 60 points. Gilgeous-Alexander will probably see more ownership on FanDuel but he’s a great staple to your lineup on either site. As one of my favorite players in the league, I’m happy with it.

NBA DFS Cash Game Targets

Fred VanVleet (PG – HOU)

DraftKings: $6,800
FanDuel: $7,100

Am I missing something here? I feel like there’s a prank I’m not in on or something. This is the first time Fred VanVleet is below $7,000 on DraftKings. Sure, he struggled on Friday at Oklahoma City with only 11 points and 20 fantasy points but the Thunder are the best defense in the country and allow the fourth-fewest points to opposing point guards.

Sure, he also didn’t do much against Detroit but their defense has taken a step up this year and they play slow. If there is a team that is closest to the exact opposite of Oklahoma City and Detroit, it’s the Washington Wizards. The Wizards have allowed the most points to opposing point guards, have the third-worst defense and the second-fastest pace in the league. And Fred VanVleet is priced down. Need I say more?

Early rostership projections show VanVleet at a little over 15%. I expect that number to rise as the day progresses in this small slate. He provides a floor of around 30 points and is capable of much more in this swish-cheese matchup.

Evan Mobley (PF/C – CLE)

DraftKings: $7,600
FanDuel: $8,200

For any team facing the Chicago Bulls, you’re going to find some high ownership for those players across the board. Evan Mobley is no exception. The Cavaliers and Bulls face off in Chicago in a game with a 238 total. There will be plenty of options here. Chicago plays at the fastest pace in the league, allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards.

Mobley and Co. have been dominant through this young NBA season with an impressive 11-0 start. Mobley is coming off back-to-back 20+ point efforts and we’ve seen a slight uptick in his minutes and usage over the last week of play. Going against the Bulls, those numbers should only continue to increase. You can expect around a 40-point effort but he’s capable of going for 50+ points. His rostership should settle around 25% on this five-game slate where he projects as the highest-scoring power forward among the 10 teams in action tonight.

Donovan Mitchell (PG/SG – CLE)

DraftKings: $8,100
FanDuel: $8,100

As the potential highest-rostered player on the slate, we have the other great Cleveland option here in Donovan Mitchell. Yes, feel free to fill up your lineup with Cavs, I’m not done writing about them yet. For Mitchell, his dual guard eligibility helps a bit with roster construction and you should find ways to slot him in.

Mitchell is priced reasonably after two of his worst outings over his last couple of games which means he’s due for a bounce-back game. Chicago offers that, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing guards. Mitchell diced up Washington back in October, showing his 50+ point ceiling against sub-par opponents. Expect him to be chalky tonight but there’s good reason for it.

NBA DFS GPP Targets

Jonas Valanciunas (C – WAS)

DraftKings: $5,600
FanDuel: $5,900

I never personally like rostering players coming off the bench and I’d expect the same tonight with Washington coming off the back-to-back and Jonas Valanciunas only starting one game this season. But given his production when he gets on the floor, his price is simply too low for the roughly 22 minutes he’s expected to see tonight.

Houston has struggled against opposing big men, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to centers in their 10 games played this season. Averaging over double-digit points a game is already promising. Scoring 16 in two of his last three games is why he’s on this list. Roster percentage will be down on the Washington big man but he has a solid chance to return 6X value to your lineups, as he’s already gone over 40 fantasy points in multiple games this year.

Tari Eason (SF/PF – HOU)

DraftKings: $4,800
FanDuel: $5,600

This might be one of the more higher-rostered GPP options but Tari Eason’s chance of being optimal is still much higher than where his projected rostership is at. Eason won’t be in the starting lineup, which will hopefully cap his ownership, but he will still see the floor for over 25 minutes.

Eason has been an efficient per-minute guy, scoring 18 points yesterday in 27 minutes against Detroit. He’s scored double-digit points in five of his last six games. Pricing him at sub-$5,000 on DraftKings is insanity. You should find ways to play him. He’s projected for around 30 fantasy points — not exactly a ceiling performance as he passed it yesterday. He has reached 50 points already this season and this a prime matchup.

Ivica Zubac (C – LAC)

DraftKings: $8,000
FanDuel: $7,800

With higher ownership going to Sabonis and Mobley — rightfully so — Ivica Zubac has fallen through the cracks here, as he is projected for a sub-10% rostership. Even Alperen Sengun ($7,900 on DraftKings; $7,900 on FanDuel) and Nic Claxton ($5,700 on DraftKings and FanDuel) are being shown some love, as they should. All five centers mentioned are great plays tonight but the lowest rostership should be on Zubac, so he’s my lean for GPPs.

Zubac is a near-lock to post a double-double tonight. He barely leaves the floor, playing over 36 minutes a game in the last week of play. He’s a rebound machine and he’s already going against a Thunder team that’s third-lowest in rebound rate. Without Holmgren, Zubac might get every rebound tonight and the Thunder might have trouble defending him with their smaller lineup. This is a smash matchup for Zubac, but with Oklahoma City’s reputation, the ownership hasn’t followed, making him a great GPP option.

NBA DFS Value Plays

Jabari Smith Jr. (PF/C – HOU)

DraftKings: $5,200
FanDuel: $5,100

I honestly think I could put any Houston player in this section and argue my point facing off against Washington but Jabari Smith is a premium selection among already gold-standard options. After a trifecta of disappointing efforts and an OK season, the Auburn product has had his salary drop from $6,800 to start the year on DraftKings down to just over $5,000. But you can’t spell get right game without Washington. Maybe you can but you get my point.

The Wizards are allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards. Smith projects for around 30 points, which would send him well over the 5X mark for a clean return on your investment.

Caris LeVert (PG/SG/SF – CLE)

DraftKings: $5,100
FanDuel: $5,500

Oh, what’s this, another Cleveland player? Well, I’ll be. Caris Levert projects for around 30 points after three straight such fantasy outputs. That feels more on the safer side with such a plus-matchup against the Chicago Bulls. Levert has been consistent in his three games back from injury and seems to be earning more playing time, seeing the floor for 31 minutes last time out against Brooklyn.

The Michigan product is higher priced on FanDuel but might be a bit higher rostered as well with his SF/SG eligibility. The Cavs are a 7.5-point favorite. If this ends up being a blowout tonight, Levert could be a catalyst for that happening. We haven’t seen a ceiling game from him yet this year, but tonight could be the night. Early rostership trends don’t seem to be breaking the bank on Levert, making him a solid GPP and cash game play.

Cason Wallace (PG/SG – OKC)

DraftKings: $3,700
FanDuel: $4,300

With Holmgren out, Oklahoma City went smaller against Golden State with a bump in minutes to Luguentz Dort. Ousmane Dieng is the backup big man but he only saw the court for 11 minutes last night and didn’t capitalize much on that. The real boost goes to Cason Wallace. I expect him to start tonight after coming off the bench last night against Golden State.

Wallace still saw the floor for over 30 minutes and I expect the same tonight, which makes him a phenomenal value play. He is quite capable of scoring double digits and I project him for around 23 points and to clear 6X value. The rotation might be a bit weird and unexpected for the Thunder, so don’t go crazy on ownership. However, I see Wallace as the best value among the other Thunder players who will receive a boost here.