Saquon Barkley may have just won the 2024 fantasy football regular season MVP.
After scoring 77 half-PPR fantasy points over the last two weeks, which is the most by any non-quarterback over two weeks since the start of 2021, Barkley is up to 1.88 Fantasy Games Won (FGW) in 2024. That means the average Barkley manager will have won 1.88 more fantasy matchups than they would have with a typical fantasy football starting running back in his place. He’s 0.37 FGW ahead of Derrick Henry in second place, which means Henry would most likely need a similarly explosive week to catch up.
- Waiver Wire Advice
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- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
The only sign Barkley may not end up the fantasy regular season MVP is that his scoring has been more erratic than Henry’s. Barkley has had four below-average outings for a fantasy running back this season (Week 4, Week 6, Week 8, Week 10). Two of those performances saw him score fewer than 10 points. Henry has only two below-average weeks (Week 1 and Week 10) and has yet to fail to crack 10 fantasy points.
Either Barkley managers are going to cruise into the playoffs or they’re getting set up for a letdown ala Andrew Luck’s 2014 Week 15 dud.
Fantasy Games Won (FGW)
Fantasy Games Won (FGW) is a statistic that converts fantasy points into fantasy wins. Players get positive FGW points for outscoring average fantasy starters and negative points for below-average scores.
A player can score up to +0.5 FGW for increasing your chances of winning from 50% to 100% or down to -0.5 for dropping your chances from 50% to 0%. Percent started matters — 0% started throttles your FGW down to zero.
For a longer explanation, check out the 2023 FGW launch on my blog. The stat hasn’t changed since its inception.
Who Won Week 12?
| # | Player | Pos | Pts | %St | FGW |
| 1 | Saquon Barkley | RB | 44.2 | 100% | 0.46 |
| 2 | Josh Jacobs | RB | 28.6 | 92% | 0.28 |
| 3 | Houston D/ST | DEF | 19.0 | 100% | 0.24 |
| 4 | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 23.4 | 99% | 0.22 |
| 5 | Jayden Daniels | QB | 32.4 | 90% | 0.21 |
| 6 | Trey McBride | TE | 19.3 | 88% | 0.20 |
| 7 | Courtland Sutton | WR | 25.7 | 69% | 0.19 |
| 8 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | 31.8 | 84% | 0.19 |
| 9 | A.J. Brown | WR | 19.9 | 100% | 0.17 |
| 10 | George Kittle | TE | 17.2 | 86% | 0.16 |
| 11 | DJ Moore | WR | 23.4 | 64% | 0.15 |
| 12 | Cameron Dicker | K | 16.0 | 79% | 0.13 |
| 13 | Terry McLaurin | WR | 18.7 | 87% | 0.13 |
| 14 | De’Von Achane | RB | 19.1 | 98% | 0.13 |
| 15 | Jaylen Waddle | WR | 24.4 | 49% | 0.13 |
- My favorite Barkley stat this week is how he had his second-best scrimmage yards game in NFL history. His 279-yard game from 2019, now his second-best mark, is better than any other player’s second-best game.
- Trivia for anyone who did not click the above link: Which active player has the most scrimmage yards in a single game? Barkley’s 302 yards from Week 12 is one yard short of Josh Jacobs‘ 303-yard game against the Seahawks in Week 12 of 2022. Interestingly, his percentage started that week was lower (90%) than it was this time around (92%). Maybe Jacobs should always be started in Week 12.
- Patrick Mahomes just ended a streak of 19 straight regular-season games where he failed to hit 30 fantasy points, despite his percentage never dropping below 63%. He had 10 30+ point games from 2021-2022. He has only two from 2023 to today.
- Don’t look now, but George Kittle is quietly having a stellar fantasy season for a tight end. He’s at 1.06 FGW for the season. For reference, Travis Kelce led all tight ends with 0.77 last season.
Who Lost Week 12?
| # | Player | Pos | Pts | %St | FGW |
| 15 | Jayden Reed | WR | 4.1 | 64% | -0.11 |
| 14 | Josh Downs | WR | 4.2 | 65% | -0.11 |
| 13 | Jalen Hurts | QB | 16.1 | 100% | -0.11 |
| 12 | San Francisco D/ST | DEF | -2.0 | 58% | -0.12 |
| 11 | James Conner | RB | 7.4 | 93% | -0.12 |
| 10 | Jared Goff | QB | 10.8 | 56% | -0.12 |
| 9 | Javonte Williams | RB | 1.4 | 52% | -0.13 |
| 8 | Joe Mixon | RB | 7.0 | 97% | -0.14 |
| 7 | Christian McCaffrey | RB | 6.3 | 99% | -0.15 |
| 6 | Kyler Murray | QB | 10.3 | 67% | -0.15 |
| 5 | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 3.3 | 75% | -0.16 |
| 4 | Brian Robinson | RB | 2.9 | 77% | -0.17 |
| 3 | Deebo Samuel | WR | 2.6 | 85% | -0.17 |
| 2 | Justin Jefferson | WR | 3.7 | 98% | -0.18 |
| 1 | Jonathan Taylor | RB | 3.5 | 94% | -0.20 |
- It’s fair to question whether Christian McCaffrey would have been more helpful to fantasy managers if he stayed on injured reserve (IR) the last few weeks. He had a decent Week 10 and Week 11 (13.7 and 12.6 half-PPR points, respectively), but 6.3 points this past week makes alternative running backs look strangely appealing.
- Speaking of first-overall picks not living up to the bill, Kyler Murray has a bad habit of falling short. He recorded his sixth week with negative FGW this season. He’s averaging 11.66 points in those six bad weeks and 26.4 points in the other five (ignoring his Week 11 bye). Maybe it’s not a coincidence he plays for the team colored like a Roulette wheel.
- Only three times this season has a wide receiver been started in 98% of leagues and scored fewer than four half-PPR points: Amon-Ra St. Brown in Week 1, Rashee Rice in Week 4 (recall he got hurt in that one) and Justin Jefferson in Week 12.
- We’re officially at one full season since Jonathan Taylor‘s last 20-point half-PPR regular-season fantasy game (Week 12 in 2023). Before that, it was Week 10 of 2022. Maybe it’s not a coincidence that a running back that inspires fist-shaped holes in drywall specializes in home improvement.
Week 12 Junior Varsity All-Stars
| # | Player | Pos | Pts | %St | bFGW |
| 1 | Noah Gray | TE | 20.6 | 2% | 0.24 |
| 2 | Jordan Addison | WR | 26.2 | 26% | 0.22 |
| 3 | Caleb Williams | QB | 28.9 | 17% | 0.14 |
| 4 | Tua Tagovailoa | QB | 32.5 | 44% | 0.13 |
| 5 | Jaylen Waddle | WR | 24.4 | 49% | 0.13 |
| 6 | Bucky Irving | RB | 24.1 | 45% | 0.13 |
| 7 | Keenan Allen | WR | 19.1 | 23% | 0.12 |
| 8 | David Moore | WR | 17.1 | 0% | 0.11 |
| 9 | Austin Hooper | TE | 13.9 | 0% | 0.11 |
| 10 | Jonnu Smith | TE | 19.2 | 51% | 0.11 |
| 11 | Chig Okonkwo | TE | 13.5 | 0% | 0.10 |
| 12 | Courtland Sutton | WR | 25.7 | 69% | 0.09 |
| 13 | DJ Moore | WR | 23.4 | 64% | 0.09 |
| 14 | Luke Schoonmaker | TE | 13.0 | 10% | 0.08 |
| 15 | Calvin Austin | WR | 15.3 | 0% | 0.07 |
- If you were one of the 2% of fantasy managers who started Noah Gray, please reach out to me. I could use some stock tips.
- A stack I didn’t expect to see: Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle. Can you believe Waddle hasn’t even been the best penguin-evoking player in the NFL this season? That has been Rico Dowdle. Waddle needs to spend less time dawdling and more time waddling.
- The Panthers should have known to just switch from DJ Moore to David Moore. The D. Moore stats on the Carolina bottom line weren’t confusing at all, no. Fans certainly didn’t question their reality.
Let No One Question the True Quadzilla
We all remember where we were when we first heard about that Saquon Barkley kid. Some of us were at Penn State practice. Some of us were unsuspecting employees at Men’s Wearhouse tasked with finding him pants that fit. Others were just curious if J-Kwon ever collaborated with Gnarls Barkley.
Whether you’ve been on the Barkley train from day one or if you drafted him this year for the first time or if you’re about to get bulldozed by your league mate who did draft him, remember we’re all going down in the fantasy football ship together. Good luck in Week 13 and have fun making Tommy DeVito Goodfellas jokes on Thanksgiving.
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