Fantasy Games Won (FGW) is not going on bye in Week 12. We’re here to grind it out until the end of the season, which is certainly more than you can say for many drafters of C.J. Stroud.
Stroud is having a historically bad fantasy season. Not because he hasn’t scored any points, but because he’s scored just enough that fantasy managers keep starting him. He’s averaged 14.8 fantasy points per game this season at a 79% started rate. For the six weeks he’s scored fewer than 15 points, he’s still at 72% started.
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The stalwarts of 2024 aren’t many, but within their ranks are kickers that call Texas home, emotional damage for Jets fans, Lamar Jackson weeks best described as solid (seven weeks over 0.10 FGW) and C.J. Stroud weeks best described as meh.
Fantasy Games Won (FGW)
Fantasy Games Won (FGW) is a statistic that converts fantasy points into fantasy wins. Players get positive FGW points for outscoring average fantasy starters and negative points for below-average scores.
A player can score up to +0.5 FGW for increasing your chances of winning from 50% to 100% or down to -0.5 for dropping your chances from 50% to 0%. Percent started matters — 0% started throttles your FGW down to zero.
For a longer explanation, check out the 2023 FGW launch on my blog. The stat hasn’t changed since its inception.
Who Won Week 11?
| # | Player | Pos | Pts | %St | FGW |
| 1 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 33.2 | 99% | 0.38 |
| 2 | Joe Mixon | RB | 34.3 | 99% | 0.38 |
| 3 | Saquon Barkley | RB | 32.8 | 99% | 0.36 |
| 4 | Brock Bowers | TE | 24.8 | 94% | 0.30 |
| 5 | Breece Hall | RB | 27.6 | 98% | 0.29 |
| 6 | Cooper Kupp | WR | 25.6 | 92% | 0.26 |
| 7 | Ja’Marr Chase | WR | 23.0 | 100% | 0.23 |
| 8 | Puka Nacua | WR | 21.8 | 95% | 0.20 |
| 9 | Chris Boswell | K | 24.0 | 62% | 0.20 |
| 10 | Joe Burrow | QB | 32.0 | 84% | 0.20 |
| 11 | Houston D/ST | DEF | 19.0 | 80% | 0.19 |
| 12 | David Montgomery | RB | 23.0 | 89% | 0.19 |
| 13 | Jared Goff | QB | 38.6 | 46% | 0.16 |
| 14 | Josh Jacobs | RB | 21.4 | 85% | 0.15 |
| 15 | Tee Higgins | WR | 25.3 | 54% | 0.15 |
- Amon-Ra St. Brown nudges Joe Mixon out of the top slot. Mixon scored more, but wide receivers have a slightly lower baseline expectation from the last few seasons. Week 11 was the first week all season where we had four players above 0.30 FGW.
- Brock Bowers decided not to trick fantasy managers this time. His previous high score of the season (19.7 points in Week 5) came on the heels of Week 3 and Week 4 duds. His percent started rate was only 77%. Thanks to Week 11, he’s hanging out with George Kittle at the top of the tight end position in 2024.
- Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are officially back. We can finally stop entertaining the idea of starting Demarcus Robinson, and your niece will have no excuse to start her favorite receiver named Tutu [Atwell].
- Tee Higgins returns with a big week. Oddly enough, Week 12 is ‘Tee-Ball’ season, as he’s scored a touchdown in all three Week 12 games where he’s been active in his career (2020, 2021, 2022).
Who Lost Week 11?
| # | Player | Pos | Pts | %St | FGW |
| 15 | Russell Wilson | QB | 6.3 | 34% | -0.10 |
| 14 | Kyren Williams | RB | 8.6 | 98% | -0.10 |
| 13 | Mark Andrews | TE | 3.2 | 80% | -0.10 |
| 12 | Bijan Robinson | RB | 8.3 | 99% | -0.11 |
| 11 | Lamar Jackson | QB | 15.9 | 96% | -0.11 |
| 10 | DeVonta Smith | WR | 4.9 | 74% | -0.12 |
| 9 | Kyle Pitts | TE | 1.4 | 70% | -0.12 |
| 8 | Kareem Hunt | RB | 6.0 | 79% | -0.13 |
| 7 | C.J. Stroud | QB | 10.9 | 65% | -0.14 |
| 6 | Jonathan Taylor | RB | 6.5 | 96% | -0.14 |
| 5 | Aaron Jones | RB | 4.8 | 84% | -0.16 |
| 4 | Travis Kelce | TE | 1.8 | 100% | -0.16 |
| 3 | Deebo Samuel | WR | 4.1 | 93% | -0.16 |
| 2 | Garrett Wilson | WR | 3.8 | 95% | -0.17 |
| 1 | Terry McLaurin | WR | 1.5 | 84% | -0.19 |
- This has been the worst two-game stretch in Kyren Williams‘ fantasy career, with two -0.10 FGW weeks in a row. Honestly, though, if back-to-back eight-point games is your worst two-game split, you’re doing pretty well. Finish what you started, Ky-lo-ren Williams.
- Fun Fact: If Tucker Kraft had scored -4 points in Week 11 instead of 0, he would have only been the third-most harmful fantasy tight end by FGW metrics That’s how bad all the other tight ends were.
- Let me gratuitously hammer the point home on the tight ends: Three of the top six ranked tight ends from the preseason and the preseason top three from 2022 averaged 83% started and 2.1 fantasy points in the same week. I don’t feel remorseful for throwing salt on the wounds of fantasy managers that started Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts and Travis Kelce because I was a Sam LaPorta guy this year.
- Focusing on tight ends is also a welcome distraction from the Garrett Wilson and Terry McLaurin games. Look the other way, kids.
Week 11 Junior Varsity All-Stars
| # | Player | Pos | Pts | %St | bFGW |
| 1 | Taysom Hill | TE | 37.5 | 27% | 0.33 |
| 2 | Matthew Stafford | QB | 31.8 | 11% | 0.20 |
| 3 | Jonnu Smith | TE | 25.1 | 41% | 0.19 |
| 4 | Jared Goff | QB | 38.6 | 46% | 0.18 |
| 5 | Jerry Jeudy | WR | 23.2 | 23% | 0.18 |
| 6 | Bo Nix | QB | 32.8 | 29% | 0.17 |
| 7 | Noah Gray | TE | 16.3 | 0% | 0.16 |
| 8 | Anthony Richardson | QB | 29.1 | 8% | 0.16 |
| 9 | Jameis Winston | QB | 28.6 | 6% | 0.15 |
| 10 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | WR | 18.7 | 0% | 0.15 |
| 11 | Zach Ertz | TE | 15.7 | 14% | 0.13 |
| 12 | Jameson Williams | WR | 20.6 | 32% | 0.13 |
| 13 | Tee Higgins | WR | 25.3 | 54% | 0.13 |
| 14 | Will Dissly | TE | 16.0 | 20% | 0.12 |
| 15 | Christian Watson | WR | 17.0 | 8% | 0.10 |
- Not only was Joe Douglas fired this week, but I was fired from my consulting role for my wife’s fantasy team. I recommended she start Dawson Knox over Taysom Hill. I started cleaning out my desk after the second touchdown.
- Jonnu Smith is well on his way to being the new Jared Cook. He has the quasi-random big games down pat. He just needs a slightly deeper voice and a funnier Google search thumbnail.
- Don’t look now, but Anthony Richardson is back. On second thought, no, definitely look now. Look at your waiver wire free agent list right now.
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is a fun player to have on the fantasy radar. He’s the “serious fantasy manager” litmus test. If you think one of your league-mates doesn’t watch football, try and get them to say Ikhine and you’ll know for sure.
The Sound of Week 12 Can be Heard on a 2000 Sony Walkman
Week 12 has a double dose of Bye, Bye, Bye. Everyone’s eyes are on the byes. Not you. You’re looking down the road to Week 14, where we have… six teams on bye again. May as well leave Total Request Live on in the background.
Be ready to scoop up all those playoff assets that wouldn’t normally be dropped. If you’re the unfortunate one doing the dropping, just remember we’re all going down in this fantasy football ship together. Good luck in Week 12.
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