Ja’Marr Chase exploded for 49.9 half-PPR points in Week 10. That was good for 0.48 Fantasy Games Won (FGW), which means his fantasy managers had a win expectation of 98% for the week (0.48 above 50%). He vaulted up from 12th to third on the Fantasy Games Won MVP Leaderboard.
Whenever a player has a week like this, it’s a great chance to see how FGW is better at measuring fantasy value than points, so let’s do that here.
- Waiver Wire Advice
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Chase was the best fantasy asset in Week 10. To make it interesting, let’s zoom out and focus on the last two weeks. He leads all non-quarterbacks over Weeks 9 and 10 combined with 57.7 half-PPR points.
If you could pick any skill player to have over that window and maximize your fantasy wins, you’d pick Chase, right?
False. The correct choice would be Bijan Robinson.
Fantasy Games Won (FGW)
Fantasy Games Won (FGW) is a statistic that converts fantasy points into fantasy wins. Players get positive FGW points for outscoring average fantasy starters and negative points for below-average scores.
A player can score up to +0.5 FGW for increasing your chances of winning from 50% to 100% or down to -0.5 for dropping your chances from 50% to 0%. Percent started matters — 0% started throttles your FGW down to zero.
For a longer explanation, check out the 2023 FGW launch on my blog. The stat hasn’t changed since its inception.
Who Won Week 10?
| # | Player | Pos | Pts | %St | FGW |
| 1 | Ja’Marr Chase | WR | 49.9 | 100% | 0.48 |
| 2 | Lamar Jackson | QB | 36.9 | 100% | 0.31 |
| 3 | Bijan Robinson | RB | 27.9 | 99% | 0.29 |
| 4 | Joe Burrow | QB | 37.7 | 83% | 0.27 |
| 5 | Philadelphia D/ST | DEF | 20.0 | 89% | 0.23 |
| 6 | Jalen Hurts | QB | 31.7 | 96% | 0.22 |
| 7 | Buffalo/DST | DEF | 19.0 | 69% | 0.17 |
| 8 | Travis Kelce | TE | 16.4 | 97% | 0.16 |
| 9 | Chuba Hubbard | RB | 22.9 | 68% | 0.14 |
| 10 | Kyler Murray | QB | 29.7 | 65% | 0.12 |
| 11 | Mark Andrews | TE | 15.8 | 78% | 0.12 |
| 12 | James Conner | RB | 19.8 | 80% | 0.12 |
| 13 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | K | 13.0 | 92% | 0.10 |
| 14 | Calvin Ridley | WR | 22.9 | 42% | 0.10 |
| 15 | George Kittle | TE | 13.2 | 100% | 0.10 |
- Over Weeks 9 and 10, Chase has put up 7.8 and 49.9 points, respectively. That has been good for -0.09 and +0.48 FGW, respectively. Meanwhile, Bijan Robinson has gone for 18.0 and 27.9 points, or +0.10 and +0.29 FGW. Robinson outscored Chase over this window by 0.40 FGW to 0.39 FGW.
- If it’s not intuitive that Robinson has been a better fantasy asset over the last two weeks, let me put it this way: Chase gave his managers a 98% chance of winning this past week. If he had scored only 40 points, he still would have given his managers a 94% chance of winning. The 10 points to get from 40 to 50 only get you 4% better chances of a win.
- On the flip side, the difference between scoring four points below the average for his position (Chase in Week 9) and five points above the average (Robinson in Week 9) is huge. Because most fantasy football teams score around the average points scored in a week, that nine-point swing brings you from a 41% chance of winning up to a 60% chance of winning. Nine points at this level get you about 19% better chances of a win.
- Don’t let all this math distract you from the fact that the Undertaker threw Mankind off Hell in a Cell in 1998, and plummeted 16 feet through an announcer’s table while 12-year-old future champion Joe Burrow watched from the stands. Or, wait, maybe that was Cody Rhodes watching. Tough to tell.
Who Lost Week 10?
| # | Player | Pos | Pts | %St | FGW |
| 15 | Justin Jefferson | WR | 7.3 | 100% | -0.11 |
| 14 | Brian Thomas | WR | 2.2 | 52% | -0.11 |
| 13 | Saquon Barkley | RB | 8.3 | 100% | -0.11 |
| 12 | D’Andre Swift | RB | 7.0 | 82% | -0.11 |
| 11 | Justin Tucker | K | 3.0 | 100% | -0.12 |
| 10 | Garrett Wilson | WR | 6.6 | 97% | -0.12 |
| 9 | De’Von Achane | RB | 7.7 | 95% | -0.12 |
| 8 | DJ Moore | WR | 4.2 | 69% | -0.12 |
| 7 | Davante Adams | WR | 6.1 | 91% | -0.12 |
| 6 | Zay Flowers | WR | 5.4 | 84% | -0.12 |
| 5 | C.J. Stroud | QB | 10.8 | 58% | -0.13 |
| 4 | CeeDee Lamb | WR | 5.4 | 93% | -0.14 |
| 3 | Sam Darnold | QB | 6.4 | 55% | -0.16 |
| 2 | DeVonta Smith | WR | 2.4 | 82% | -0.17 |
| 1 | Jayden Daniels | QB | 8.6 | 66% | -0.17 |
- Whenever I review the weekly losers list I sometimes find myself double-checking whether certain players got hurt. I don’t remember Jayden Daniels leaving the game, right? That’s a fantasy score he usually puts up in less than a half.
- It has not been a great year for 2023 star wide receivers. Tyreek Hill is nowhere to be seen, we sent a search party after Keenan Allen five weeks ago and CeeDee Lamb‘s prognosis for the rest of the season is about as great as Dak Prescott‘s hamstring.
- We were all excited to start Zay Flowers again. His 84% start was his highest since Week 7, when he only had 3.5 points. There seems to be a magic number here: When Flowers is started in 1%-73% of fantasy leagues, he’s averaging 16.9 half-PPR points. When he’s started in 74%-100% of leagues, he’s averaging 6.4.
- I finally double-checked and, yeah, Brian Thomas Jr. is the son of underwhelming Jets EDGE rusher Bryan Thomas. No, that’s not a typo, it appears Brian is using the Jr. tag despite his father being named Bryan. Is anyone else seeing this? I feel like I’m hallucinating a spelling change. Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit taking Prilosec.
Week 10 Junior Varsity All-Stars
| # | Player | Pos | Pts | %St | bFGW |
| 1 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | 24.4 | 0% | 0.26 |
| 2 | Tylan Wallace | WR | 19.0 | 0% | 0.15 |
| 3 | Calvin Ridley | WR | 22.9 | 42% | 0.13 |
| 4 | Tanner Hudson | TE | 13.3 | 0% | 0.10 |
| 5 | Alec Pierce | WR | 16.1 | 4% | 0.09 |
| 6 | John Metchie | WR | 15.9 | 0% | 0.09 |
| 7 | Chuba Hubbard | RB | 22.9 | 68% | 0.07 |
| 8 | Kyler Murray | QB | 29.7 | 65% | 0.07 |
| 9 | Ricky Pearsall | WR | 15.3 | 16% | 0.06 |
| 10 | Austin Ekeler | RB | 17.6 | 39% | 0.06 |
| 11 | Joe Burrow | QB | 37.7 | 83% | 0.06 |
| 12 | Bucky Irving | RB | 16.2 | 23% | 0.05 |
| 13 | Rashod Bateman | WR | 14.4 | 9% | 0.05 |
| 14 | Courtland Sutton | WR | 16.0 | 48% | 0.05 |
| 15 | Brock Purdy | QB | 25.8 | 57% | 0.05 |
- Not sure I can keep making sense of things after discovering the Brian/Bryan Thomas spelling discrepancy. I’m going to lose sleep tonight.
- In case you were wondering if this was the first time you’ve heard from Tylan Wallace, the answer is yes, this was the first time. He had 13.7 total half-PPR points from 2022-2024 before this past week.
- It took 19 instances of Tanner Hudson scoring fantasy points until he finally broke 10 points in a week.
- While we’re doing funky math, check this one out: Since the start of 2022, Alec Pierce has scored between one and eight fantasy points 25 times. He has also scored more than 12 points nine times. He has scored between eight and 12 points only once, back in Week 4 of 2022.
One Big Game in the Hand is Worth Less than Two in the Bush
While Ja’Marr Chase wasn’t the top fantasy asset for Weeks 9 and 10 put together, he could be the best fantasy asset for Weeks 10 and 11 put together. Any more games like he just had and it could be a sign Joe Burrow can finally finish his story. After all, on the surface, he looks calm and ready to do just that.
Before you go dying your hair platinum blonde as a last-place punishment, remember that we’re all going down in this fantasy football ship together. Good luck in Week 11; if you need to find me, I’ll be searching for the Thomas family birth certificates.
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