With less than a month left of the fantasy regular season, we are finally entering the home stretch. If you can still make your playoffs, this column becomes more important than ever to find a hidden edge.
There are some significant matchups this week. Therefore, let’s dive in and look at six fantasy football WR/CB matchups to know for Week 11.
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WR/CB Matchups: Week 11
Advantageous Wide Receiver Matchups
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR – NO) vs. Martin Emerson (CB – CLE)
This is going to feel weird given how unreliable New Orleans has been this season. However, the WR2 from Week 10 is in line for another plus-matchup in Week 11. The Cleveland Browns are allowing the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers so far this season, allowing 32.3 fantasy points per game.
On top of that, Martin Emerson is allowing 0.34 fantasy points per route run against him on average so far this season. Add to that the lack of targets in New Orleans, and the very few plays Marquez Valdes-Scantling needs to score big points, and fantasy managers have a potential recipe for success.
Valdes-Scantling has WR2 upside with a very low floor. He is a gamble this week. However, it is a calculated gamble given the matchup.
Jameson Williams (WR – DET) vs. Ronald Darby (CB – JAX)
Jameson Williams has had an eventful season. However, since Week 7, his season has stalled. He missed two games due to suspension. While he did return a handful of points in Week 10, he was a disappointment for fantasy managers searching for the Williams of the first half of the season.
However, this week appears to be a potential bounce-back week. Williams has Jacksonville in his sights, who are allowing 30 fantasy points per game to wide receivers. This is the sixth-most allowed in the NFL. Williams also has Ronald Darby covering him this week.
Darby, according to Fantasy Points, is allowing 0.38 fantasy points per route run against him, which is the sixth-worst in the NFL.
Starting Williams might be a risk for fantasy managers since he has only produced one start-worthy game since Week 5. However, he is worth putting in there if you are struggling with byes or injuries.
Rome Odunze (WR – CHI) vs. Eric Stokes (CB – GB)
Rome Odunze is fast becoming the main passing option in the Chicago Bears offense. That isn’t saying much currently, given the low passing volume. However, with the firing of Shane Waldron this week, there is hope the Bears will try and pass a bit more in the coming week.
They have a decent matchup to open the taps up this week as Odunze is up against Eric Stokes. Stokes is giving up 0.35 fantasy points per route run on average this season, which puts him in the top 10 in most allowed as an average. Add to that the feeling this team is playing for their season this week. They cannot afford another loss.
Odunze should be considered a reasonable Flex-worthy fantasy start sit play with upside this week.
Other Notable Advantageous Matchups
- Tank Dell (WR – HOU) vs. Caelen Carson (CB – DAL)
- Elijah Moore (WR – CLE) vs. Ugo Amadi (CB – NO)
- A.J. Brown (WR – PHI) vs. Mike Sainristil (CB – WAS)
- Puka Nacua (WR – LAR) vs. Christian Gonzalez (CB – NE)
- Devaughn Vele (WR – DEN) vs. Dee Alford (CB – ATL)
Challenging Wide Receiver Matchups
Ladd McConkey (WR – LAC) vs. Mike Hilton (CB – CIN)
Ladd McConkey comes into Week 11 as the WR19 in fantasy football. However, this week he is likely to see a dip in production. On the surface, many will tout this matchup as a good one. The Cincinnati Bengals are 18th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
However, the coverage from Mike Hilton means McConkey is not likely to be favored this week. According to Fantasy Points, Hilton is only allowing 0.11 fantasy points per route run on him. This is the second-lowest of any cornerback in the NFL. He is also only being targeted on 9% of routes run against him, which is the third-lowest of any cornerback this season.
It appears that while the Chargers have upped their dropback rate and passing attempts rate in recent weeks, and the game script might be there for them to increase it again this week, fantasy managers should err on the side of caution this week. McConkey will be a low-end WR3/WR4 play this week. If fantasy managers have a better fantasy start sit option, then they should explore it.
Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN) vs. Tarheeb Still (CB – LAC)
It is unusual for me to highlight two matchups from the same game. However, with fantasy managers who banked a huge week off of Ja’Marr Chase last week feeling confident coming into Week 11, this matchup needs highlighting.
Chase has had some huge weeks this season. In Week 3, he put up 26.8 fantasy points. In Week 5, he put up 36.3 fantasy points. However, in Week 4, after a huge Week 3, his total dropped to 16 points. In addition, in Week 6, his point total dropped to just 9.7 points.
Then there is his separation score and win rate in zone coverage. The Chargers play the second-most zone coverage in the NFL. According to Fantasy Points, the Chargers cover in zone 81.2% of the time, just trailing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 0.3%.
Chase has an average separation score of 0.103, which ranks just 22nd among all receivers who have run a minimum of 75 routes against zone coverage. His win rate, which is the percentage of routes with a positive separation score, is just 10.3% against zone coverage. This ranks 36th against all receivers who again, have run 75+ routes against zone coverage.
Add to this that none of the Chargers corners are allowing more than 0.25 fantasy points per route run against them on average and you have a tough assignment for Chase this week. He is certainly not a sit for fantasy managers. However, temper expectations that he is likely to be more of a WR2 play this week.
Josh Downs (WR – IND) vs. Michael Carter (CB – NYJ)
Josh Downs fantasy managers have been dealt with a double blow for Week 11. The first is Anthony Richardson is back in at quarterback this week. Richardson is only completing 44.4% of his passes. In five starts this season, Richardson has only completed more than 10 passes on one occasion, against the Green Bay Packers in Week 2.
For Context, according to StatMuse this is the lowest mark of any quarterback who has thrown over 100 passes in the last 20 years. The previous lowest was Mike McMahon at 47.3% when playing for the Eagles and the Lions, followed by Tim Tebow.
Secondly, Downs has to face Michael Carter this week. Carter is tied for eighth in fantasy points allowed on routes run against him, giving up an average of 0.16 fantasy points per route run this season.
With the lowered passing volume and touches, it is unlikely Downs — currently the WR22 — will remain as a WR2 overall for the season after this week. Fantasy managers should consider sitting Downs if they have better options on their bench.
Other Notable Challenging Matchups
- Drake London (WR – ATL) vs. Pat Surtain (CB – DEN)
- Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS) vs. Quinyon Mitchell (CB – PHI)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA) vs. Deommodore Lenoir (CB – SF)
- DeAndre Hopkins (WR – KC) vs. Rasul Douglas (CB – BUF)
- Deebo Samuel (WR – SF) vs. Devon Witherspoon (CB – SEA)
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Adam Murfet is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Murf, check out his archive and follow him @5yardrush.