There’s never a dull week in the NFL, and Week 11 wasn’t an exception to the rule. A do-it-all player had a fantasy day of a lifetime and a quarterback fantasy gamers were once excited about had another superb showing.
On the negative side of the ledger, the MVP frontrunner entering the week was once again befuddled by a familiar foe and a division leader once again proved their fraudulence as a contender. Finally, changes could be coming, and gamers should consider what they could mean for fantasy purposes.
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Fantasy Football Week 11 Surprises
Taysom Hill Isn’t a Gadget Player
The days of jokes about Taysom Hill vulturing touchdowns from useful fantasy football options were already a thing of the past. However, Hill’s effort on Sunday was nothing short of awe-inspiring. Hill aligned everywhere.
He also did everything. Hill completed 1-of-2 pass attempts for 18 yards and one interception. He ran seven times for 138 yards and three touchdowns. It didn’t stop there. Hill had a team-high 10 targets, a team-high eight receptions, 50 receiving yards, a fumble lost and a 42-yard kick return.
Hill can’t be expected to duplicate this effort. Still, his underlying usage was sensational, vaulting him into upper-echelon TE1 territory for his absurdly high weekly ceiling and climbing floor.
The Rocket-Armed Wunderkind Version of Justin Herbert is Back
The offseason doom-and-gloom prognostications of Jim Harbaugh’s and Greg Roman’s vision for Los Angeles’s offense were misplaced. They’ve injected life into the offense, allowing Justin Herbert to cut it loose. Herbert was the toast of the town in his electrifying rookie season, and it’s time to get used to him being a QB1 again.
Since Week 8, Herbert has scored 24.1, 19.5, 19.8 and 24.4 fantasy points, finishing as the QB9, QB12 and QB8. He’s the QB8 pending Monday Night Football in Week 11. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Chargers had a 57% situation-neutral pass rate from Week 6 through Week 10. On Sunday night, L.A. attempted 36 passes and 25 rushes. They were in a positive game script for much of the game, making the pass-leaning play-calling more eye-catching.
Herbert’s also an effective runner, rumbling for 65 yards on five attempts against the Bengals. Circling back to his passing, Ladd McConkey is a talented rookie wideout and Quentin Johnston is an intriguing big-play youngster, too. Even Will Dissly is proving to be a useful pass-catching option. Herbert isn’t bereft of pass-catching talent. Finally, Herbert has some drool-inducing matchups left on the schedule, albeit with a tricky matchup against the Broncos in Week 16.
Fantasy Football Week 11 Disappointments
Lamar Jackson Hasn’t Solved the Steelers; Mark Andrews Disappeared
Lamar Jackson’s heater came to a screeching halt on Sunday against an adversary that had his number. According to Pro-Football-Reference, in four career starts against the Steelers before this season, Jackson had 858 passing yards (214.5 per game), a 58.8% completion percentage, four passing touchdowns, seven interceptions, 235 rushing yards (58.8 per game) and zero rushing touchdowns.
I thought the combination of the best weapons of his career, Derrick Henry in the backfield and offensive coordinator Todd Monken pushing the right buttons would be enough for Jackson to break through against the Mike Tomlin-led Steelers. I was wrong. Instead, Jackson completed 16-of-33 passes for 207 yards, one touchdown and one interception. He took two stacks and ran four times for 46 scoreless yards.
Unfortunately for Jackson and his pass-catching weapons, the Ravens will play the Steelers again in Week 16 — the fantasy football semi-finals in most leagues. It’s not an ideal situation for fantasy gamers.
Jackson wasn’t the only player to have a disappointing effort on Sunday. In seven games since Week 5, Andrews has scored at least one touchdown in four games, cleared 40 receiving yards four times and had at least four receptions four times. He had three targets, two receptions and 22 scoreless yards against the Steelers.
More alarmingly, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Andrews played 37 snaps and ran 21 routes in Week 11. Isaiah Likely played 30 snaps and ran 20 routes. Zay Flowers paced the pass-catchers with 51 snaps and 32 routes. Likely had a better fantasy effort than Andrews against the Steelers and is a thorn in Andrews’ side. Andrews is a low-end to middle-tier TE1 when Likely is healthy.
The Falcons are Frauds
There is no shame in losing against the Broncos in Denver. Their defense is legitimate and Bo Nix is settling into a groove. Still, the Falcons were beaten 38-6, which is an uncompetitive showing after losing to the Saints in Week 10. Atlanta has scored 23 points in their last two games.
However, Atlanta’s fraudulence starts with their defense. According to Pro-Football-Reference, entering Week 11, the Falcons were tied for the 11th-most yards per play allowed (5.5), tied for the 12th-fewest turnovers forced (10), were last in sacks (nine) and fourth-worst in pressure rate (17.4%).
According to ESPN, the Broncos had 6.7 yards per play, allowed one sack and scored 38 points against the Falcons on Sunday. The Falcons have an unserious defense. Fantasy gamers should excitedly use their players against Atlanta’s pitiful defense in fantasy start sit scenarios.
Kirk Cousins is also an underwhelming signal-caller. Denver’s stifling pass defense held Cousins to 173 scoreless passing yards and picked him off once. The statue quarterback had 306 scoreless passing yards and an interception against the Saints in Week 10.
Cousins’ full-season stats were inflated by lighting up Tampa Bay’s lousy pass defense twice. Entering Week 11, Cousins had 782 of his 2,634 passing yards (29.7%) and eight of his 17 passing touchdowns (47.1%) this year against the Buccaneers. He’s thrown multiple touchdowns in only two out of seven games against non-Bucs opponents.
Bijan Robinson is Cousins-proof but has a lower ceiling if Atlanta can’t score touchdowns. Sadly, Drake London isn’t Cousins-proof. Atlanta’s No. 1 wide receiver has had fewer than 10.0 half-PPR fantasy points in four of his previous five games. London is an unquestionably talented wide receiver with stellar underlying data. While his full-season scoring average is that of a high-end WR2, London should probably be viewed as a middle-tier to low-end WR2.
Darnell Mooney left the game early with a hamstring injury but said he’ll “be fine.” Mooney is having a career year and is a rock-solid WR3/Flex option. Finally, Kyle Pitts is an inconsistent, low-end TE1.
Miscellaneous Note
Coaching Changes Could Be on the Horizon
The Jets fired Robert Saleh earlier this season. The Saints fired Dennis Allen after Week 9. The Bears fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron after Week 10. The Raiders fired offensive coordinator Luke Getsy after their Week 9 loss. These coaching changes have led to different roles and usage for players under new coaches.
I don’t have a crystal ball to predict which coaches will get axed next. Yet, fantasy gamers should learn from the previous firings and not cling to player usage tendencies to date this year after the coaching changes, if there are any more this season.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.