Welcome to Week 12’s breakdown of wide receivers and tight ends to stash on your fantasy football rosters. Week 11 was an exciting week for this article, as quite a few players who have made appearances on this list had huge games: Taysom Hill, Josh Downs, Jonnu Smith and even Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Hopefully, we can keep that mojo going with some good picks this week. Here we go.
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Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Stashes: WR & TE (Week 12)
Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Stashes: Week 12
Elijah Moore (WR – CLE): 12.1% Rostered
The case for Elijah Moore is simple: Jameis Winston is chucking the ball right now. He has averaged 44.3 attempts per start and 10.3 yards per attempt so far this season. Moore is the Browns’ clear No. 3 WR in terms of route participation and has a good-but-not-great 20% target share since Winston took over… he still ranks sixth in the entire NFL with 126 air yards per game over that span.
Here is a list of the receivers averaging 126 air yards per game for the entire season: DK Metcalf. That’s it. That is why Moore is worth adding. We do have to take that number with a huge grain of salt, as it’s from just a three-game sample. Even Winston can’t continue to average 44 pass attempts per game. On the other hand, Joe Flacco averaged nearly 41 attempts per game in his five starts as a Brown last season. With anyone but Deshaun Watson under center, this Cleveland passing offense puts up absurd numbers.
There is also an additional untapped upside for Moore, which is why he makes sense as a waiver wire stash. As mentioned, he is Cleveland’s clear No. 3 WR in terms of usage, with just a 74% route participation rate for the season (76% for the Winston era). He also ranks behind both Cedric Tillman and Jerry Jeudy in first-read target share — he’s not a priority in this offense. But he leads that trio — and the entire Browns’ offense — in targets per route run since Winston took over at 25%.
I’m not saying it’s particularly likely, but there are realistic scenarios where Moore sees a full complement of routes: Injury, coaching decision or just a switch to more 11 personnel. If that happens, he could take off as the potential top target for the air yards machine known as Jameis Winston.
Adonai Mitchell (WR – IND): 10.3% Rostered
While Moore is someone you could plug into your lineup for Week 12 in a pinch, Adonai Mitchell is a pure stash. He is currently the clear odd man out in the Colts’ receiver room, having run just six routes (a 19% participation rate) in Week 11. However, Mitchell has consistently earned targets when he is on the field, with an elite 30% target per route run rate.
These metrics often fall back to Earth when a player moves from a part-time role (in which they are often schemed touches when they do see the field) to playing full-time snaps, but that’s still a very encouraging number.
Even though he hardly saw the field, Mitchell’s hypothetical value got a huge boost on Sunday, as Anthony Richardson looked like a vaguely competent NFL passer. In theory, Mitchell’s speed makes him a perfect fit for Richardson’s deep-ball-centric approach. Even a partially realized Richardson would be a better setup for his fantasy value than playing with Joe Flacco.
Of course, the final key to Mitchell being a fantasy hit is getting on the field. Luckily, he has a couple of outs to see real run down the stretch. The first, and most obvious, is injury. We have now seen him fill in for both Josh Downs in the slot and Michael Pittman Jr. out wide this season. While he played in Week 11, Pittman’s lingering back issue does seem like the kind of injury that could see the veteran shut down early if the Colts are eliminated from the playoff picture.
There’s also a chance Mitchell, a 22-year-old rookie with second-round draft capital, gets a shot over Alec Pierce, who has improved this year but doesn’t exactly ooze with upside. In deeper formats, it’s worth holding onto Mitchell in case he gets his chance over the last few weeks of the fantasy season.
Kayshon Boutte (WR – NE): 1.8% Rostered
Everything about Kayshon Boutte’s situation just screams impending breakout. He has led the Patriots in routes run for the last month, including elite participation rates of 93% and 89% over the last two weeks. Drake Maye is improving weekly and showing real flashes of being a quality NFL quarterback. This team is desperate for playmakers on the outside.
Of course, the issue may simply be that Boutte isn’t good. He has mediocre numbers in both targets per route run (14%) and yards per route run (1.16) for the season and has yet to make a mark in his two years in the NFL despite playing in the league’s worst wide receiver room. But he has earned six targets in each of the last four weeks — that’s not nothing. When we’re looking for upside waiver wire stashes available in over 95% of leagues, we take what we can get; a young receiver running tons of routes for an exciting young quarterback is the kind of player worth chasing.
Fantasy Football Tight End Stashes: Week 12
Ja’Tavion Sanders (TE – CAR): 3.9% Rostered
I featured Ja’Tavion Sanders last week, and the Panthers were on bye in Week 11, so nothing has changed in his situation since then. With that in mind, I’ll keep this one brief. The elevator pitch for Sanders is simple: He’s an athletic rookie who has earned targets at times this season and ran a ton of routes the last time we saw Carolina’s offense.
With Bryce Young joining Richardson in the “maybe he’s not offense-killingly-terrible anymore” category, that’s enough to make Sanders a very intriguing stash option.
Theo Johnson (TE – NYG): 2.9% Rostered
Another rookie tight end, Theo Johnson has never struggled for routes. He has been above a 70% route participation rate in five of the last six games, a solid mark for a tight end. Where he has struggled is earning targets, as his 10% target per route run rate is the sixth-worst out of 163 players with at least 100 routes run.
However, the winds of change are blowing in New York. Daniel Jones is out as the Giants’ starter, to be replaced by Tommy DeVito. In his nine games last season, DeVito targeted tight ends on 15.5% of his attempts. That may not sound like much, but the Giants rank the lowest in the league this season with just 11.4% of their targets having gone to the tight end position.
DeVito’s tiny 6.6-yard average depth of target (aDOT) also might indicate he will be looking for check-downs or that coaches will have to scheme up short targets for him — both of those could benefit Johnson. If DeVito (or Drew Lock, who will likely get his shot eventually) looks to Johnson more often than Danny Dimes did, the rookie could emerge as a potential fantasy option.
AJ Barner (TE – SEA): 2.5% Rostered
Since Week 9, AJ Barner ranks third among all tight ends in route participation rate. With Noah Fant out with a groin injury, he has stepped in as Seattle’s preferred receiving tight end. That is a valuable role, as the Seahawks are the second pass-happiest team in the league with a pass rate 5.8% above expected for the season.
Of course, Barner hasn’t exactly been racking up the stats just yet, as he has just one touchdown all season (back in Week 4) and has yet to record five catches or 40 yards in a game. But the fourth-rookie does have 11 targets over the last two games.
Fant is reportedly unlikely to go on injured reserve (IR), but he also hasn’t managed even a limited practice yet, either. Fant’s eventual return does make this more of a short-term play than my usual stash recommendations, but Barner is an intriguing option as a young player thrust into a potentially profitable role.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.