Abandon hope, all ye who enter here. The bye-pocalypse is upon us.
Well, strike that. This is where you come for hope in hard times — your hope repository, if you will.
But, yes, we are entering hard times. Week 12 will be the first six-team bye week of the season. (We get another in Week 14.)
The Falcons, Bills, Bengals, Saints, Jets and Jaguars will be idle this week. That’s a lot of missing firepower. Having Cincinnati, Buffalo and Atlanta on bye simultaneously takes a lot of studs out of play in Week 12.
You need replacements. Let’s see what’s out there.
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Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Advice: Week 12
Week 12 Waiver Grade: D
Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Rankings: Week 12
Note: Players chosen based upon having early-week consensus roster percent below 50%.
Rostership percentages are based on Yahoo leagues, Recommended FAAB bids are based on a $100 budget.
RUNNING BACKS
Written by Bo McBrayer
Tank Bigsby (JAX): 47% rostered
- Next Opponents: BYE, HOU, @TEN
- True value: $11
- Desperate Need: $19
- Budget-minded: $6
Analysis: By the time the Jaguars return from their Week 12 bye, Doug Pederson will be on the golf course playing with his buyout. Tank Bigsby sat with a sore ankle in Week 11 but ended up gaining value with how putrid Travis Etienne played. Take the discount you’ll get on Bigsby during his bye week and prepare for another post-firing boost from an offense that has been coached into the ground this season. The Jaguars face a run of mediocre teams from Week 14 to Week 17 that could present Bigsby with some run-friendly game scripts.
Gus Edwards (LAC): 28% rostered
- Next Opponents: BAL, @ATL, @KC
- True value: $6
- Desperate Need: $10
- Budget-minded: $3
Analysis: The Chargers are a playoff-caliber team, combining stellar pass defense with an offense that lives in front of the chains. Jim Harbaugh had to feed J.K. Dobbins while Gus Edwards was on the mend from an ankle injury. Now that the Gus Bus is back on the field, the division of labor is more or less an even split. Dobbins is the “lead back,” but it’s anyone’s guess whose personnel grouping will see the field at the goal line. Edwards is just as likely to score touchdowns and break off big runs.
Tyjae Spears (TEN): 48% rostered
- Next Opponents: @HOU, @WAS, JAX
- True value: $5
- Desperate Need: $9
- Budget-minded: $2
Analysis: Be careful if you see Spears on waivers in your league. Not only was he evaluated for a concussion at the end of Tennessee’s loss to Minnesota, but the Titans’ upcoming schedule looks pretty tough on running backs. Spears only handled three rushing attempts and caught two passes, amassing exactly eight scrimmage yards. It was his second game back from an ankle injury, and the Titans were stifled by the swarming Vikings defense. Road tests in Houston and Washington await Spears if he’s healthy. He might be worth the stash for Week 14, when the Titans have a date with the Jaguars.
Roschon Johnson (CHI): 7% rostered
- Next Opponents: MIN, @DET, @SF
- True value: $4
- Desperate Need: $7
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: If you were looking for Roschon Johnson the last few weeks, he could have been found languishing at the end of my bench. In Week 11, Johnson nearly matched his touches from his previous last four games. He and D’Andre Swift each scored a touchdown in a heartbreaking loss to Green Bay, but to lean into the Bears offense will undeniably leave all of us wanting. Chicago also has a dastardly schedule for running backs leading into the fantasy playoffs, so add Roschon as a depth piece only.
Cam Akers (MIN): 17% rostered
- Next Opponents: @CHI, ARI, ATL
- True value: $3
- Desperate Need: $5
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: The unprecedented health among running backs this season has us dragging the ocean floor on waivers. Cam Akers bailed us out with a touchdown reception on Sunday to crack double digits in PPR scoring. Minnesota has gone more pass-heavy than earlier in the season, making it difficult to justify starting Akers or even Aaron Jones. Since Sam Darnold has also seen a spike in turnover-worthy plays during this stretch, expect Kevin O’Connell to push for a course correction. Akers might be the only available running back who isn’t going to face elite run defenses over the next three games.
Jaylen Wright (MIA): 6% rostered
- Next Opponents: NE, @GB, NYJ
- True value: $2
- Desperate Need: $4
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: It’s beginning to look a lot like stash season. While I hoard running backs year-round, it’s especially important to fill your bench with guys who are the next man up in their backfield. Bonus points if they are already seeing the field with any frequency. Jaylen Wright is the tertiary option in the Cerberus of speed backfield in Miami. DeVon Achane and Raheem Mostert have been the primary point scorers, but that could become Wright in the blink of an eye. It’s worth noting that Mostert left the Dolphins’ game on Sunday with a hip injury.
Ameer Abdullah (LV): 0% rostered
- Next Opponents: DEN, @KC, @TB
- True value: $2
- Desperate Need: $4
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Sometimes dredging the depths of waiver wire yields a surprising winner. It seems utterly disgusting to roster any Raiders running back, but here I am about to suggest their third-stringer. Ameer Abdullah has a special place in my heart this time of year. That one Thanksgiving breakout game for the Lions paid for my daughter’s Christmas gifts on DFS winnings. Abdullah is the next one up in Las Vegas. Zamir White (quad) and Alexander Mattison (ankle) are both banged up and haven’t been very good when healthy. The Raiders play the nasty Broncos defense in Week 12. The hope is that a negative game script will favor a litany of garbage time receptions for Abdullah, who is a PPR machine about three times a year. He might also cede some work to rookie Dylan Laube, but don’t hold your breath. Laube is nearly as old as Velus Jones and still hasn’t worked his way up an uninspiring depth chart.
Running Back Stash Candidates
Earlier in his rookie season, Trey Benson did not look sharp. He has turned the corner and flashed a few times despite living in James Conner‘s shadow. Conner is having a career year for the Cardinals, but his injury history is extensive. Benson would be a huge priority on waivers if Conner were to go down.
It’s still baffling how Sean McVay keeps shoving the ball to Kyren Williams like he’s Eric Dickerson. Williams is a fine player but has no big-play upside. His fantasy relevance hinges entirely on the inexplicable volume he logs in every game, while Blake Corum rusts on the bench. Corum is simply more explosive, and I really can’t believe Williams has lasted this long with his irresponsible snap share. I hope Williams can stay healthy, but I’m keeping Corum just in case.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Written by Derek Brown
Quentin Johnston (LAC): 41% rostered
- Next Opponents: BAL, @ATL, @KC
- True value: $4
- Desperate Need: $8
- Budget-minded: $3
Analysis: Johnston finished with a familiar stat line against the Bengals in Week 11. He had only two receptions and 48 receiving yards, but the difference this week was that he saw a 22.2% target share with a season-high eight targets. Johnston has been a boom-or-bust player this season. He could boom again in Week 12. Baltimore will take away the Bolts’ ability to run the rock, so we should see Justin Herbert light it up, which is good news for Johnston. Baltimore has been a wonderful matchup all season, allowing the most receiving yards and fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers (per Fantasy Points Data).
Christian Watson (GB): 44% rostered
- Next Opponents: SF, MIA, @DET
- True value: $3
- Desperate Need: $6
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Jordan Love only threw the ball 17 times against the talented Bears secondary, but that didn’t stop Watson from exploding for 150 receiving yards. He had one of the nastiest fiving catches of the year, with Bears corners flanking him in every direction. It was an awesome performance. Watson led the Packers’ receivers with a 23.5% target share. We all know the volatility of the Green Bay receiver room and how the Packers will feature receivers depending on the coverage that they face, so I understand why his rostership is below 50% right now. That needs to change. Watson’s upcoming matchups aren’t great, but if we can finally get healthy versions of Watson and Love on the field together for an extended stretch, Watson could step up as the No. 1 option in this passing attack. I know I’m wishcasting to an extent, but we can’t rule it out.
Elijah Moore (CLE): 8% rostered
- Next Opponents: PIT, @DEN, @PIT
- True value: $3
- Desperate Need: $6
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: In Jameis Winston‘s first two games as the Browns’ starting quarterback, Moore had a 23% target share, a 23.9% first-read share and 1.49 yards per route run, with one top-24 wide receiver finish (per Fantasy Points Data). Against the Saints, Moore handled a 17.3% target share, finishing with six receptions, 66 receiving yards and a score. We had seen recent glimpses of Moore’s talent that had us all swooning over him entering his sophomore season. Moore will remain a strong flex play with two dates against the Steelers in his next three games. Since Week 5, Pittsburgh has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers (per Fantasy Points Data).
Jalen Coker (CAR): 5% rostered
- Next Opponents: KC, TB, @PHI
- True value: $3
- Desperate Need: $5
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: In his most recent game before Carolina’s Week 11 bye, Coker led the team with a whopping 32% target share, a 49.4% air-yard share and a 36.4% first-read share (per Fantasy Points Data). Sadly, only 62.5% of that target volume was deemed catchable. If Coker is going to see this type of volume over the next two weeks, it might not matter. He should be considered a strong flex play against the Chiefs and Bucs, who have respectively allowed the second-most and third-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers this season (per Fantasy Points Data).
Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG): 48% rostered
- Next Opponents: TB, @DAL, NO
- True value: $2
- Desperate Need: $4
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Robinson entered Week 11 as the WR40 in fantasy points per game, with six games this season as a top-36 receiver in weekly fantasy scoring. Among WRs, he ranks seventh in red-zone targets. Robinson has commanded a 22.2% target share and 25.2% first-read share while producing 1.29 yards per route run and 39.8 receiving yards per game (per Fantasy Points Data). He is a strong flex play this week despite the Giants’ shaky quarterback play. Since Week 5, Tampa Bay has allowed the most fantasy points per game to slot receivers.
Jalen McMillan (TB): 13% rostered
- Next Opponents: @NYG, @CAR, LV
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: McMillan has been dealing with a hamstring injury. He was inactive in Week 9 and a ghost active in Week 10. (He didn’t play a single snap.) Hopefully, after the Bucs’ bye in Week 11, McMillan can return to the starting lineup, because the Bucs need receiving weapons.The last time he played a major role (Week 8), McMillan had a 14% target share, only 0.83 yards per route run and a 21.2% first-read share (second on the team). McMillan had one end-zone target (per Fantasy Points Data). This week, assuming he’s fully healthy, McMillan reenters the flex conversation against a Giants secondary that has allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter receivers.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (NO): 25% rostered
- Next Opponents: BYE, LAR, @NYG
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: Valdes-Scantling has been threading the needle over the last two games. He has only seen an 11.8% target share with five total receptions, but he has averaged 98 receiving yards per game and had three scores. Is this sustainable? No. Could he continue the hot streak after the Saints’ Week 12 bye? Possibly. Valdes-Scantling comes out of the bye with matchups against the Rams and Giants, who have allowed the fifth-most and sixth-most deep passing yards per game, respectively (per Fantasy Points Data). MVS will be a dice-roll flex play in those two matchups.
Xavier Legette (CAR): 28% rostered
- Next Opponents: KC, TB, @PHI
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: I’ll lead off with this. I wouldn’t flex Legette in Week 12 against a Chiefs secondary that has limited perimeter wide receivers with the third-fewest fantasy points per game allowed to the position (per Fantasy Points Data). I would pick up Legette with an eye toward playing him against the Buccaneers in Week 13. Since Week 6, Legette has had a 16.6% target share, 1.08 yards per route run, three end-zone targets and a 20% first-read share. The Bucs have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to perimeter receivers.
DeMario Douglas (NE): 28% rostered
- Next Opponents: @MIA, IND, BYE
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: Douglas has been a PPR merchant with Drake Maye under center. In their four full games together, Douglas has had a 21.5% target share and has finished with at least four receptions and 50 receiving yards three times. He’s a volume-based flex play in his next two games before his bye. Since Week 5, Miami has allowed the 12th-fewest receiving yards per game to slot receivers, while Indy has given up the 10th-fewest receiving yards per game to the slot (per Fantasy Points Data).
Noah Brown (WAS): 10% rostered
- Next Opponents: DAL, TEN, BYE
- True value: $0
- Desperate Need: $1
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: Since Week 3, Brown has had a 15.9% target share, 1.57 yards per route run and a 19.6% first-read share (per Fantasy Points Data). Over that span, he has surpassed 50 receiving yards in only three games, but he makes this week’s waiver wire article because he has a juicy matchup in Week 12 against an exploitable Dallas secondary. With all of the teams on bye, you might be in a tough spot in deeper leagues as you look for a flex play. Dallas has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter receivers.
Wide Receiver Stash Candidate
You might be surprised to see Pearsall’s name here after his Week 11 goose egg, but he still has immense contingent upside. Yes, I know we saw him only manage two targets and zero fantasy points against the Seahawks with George Kittle out of the lineup, but if Kittle were to miss extended time, or if any of the 49ers’ other heavy hitters were to be out for multiple weeks, I doubt we’d see Pearsall on the outside looking in. Pearsall is worth stashing at the end of your bench, because we have seen this 49ers depth chart struggle to stay healthy all year.
QUARTERBACKS
Written by Bo McBrayer
Bo Nix (DEN): 48% rostered
- Next Opponents: @LV, CLE, BYE
- True value: $7
- Desperate Need: $13
- Budget-minded: $4
Analysis: Great news, weary travelers. There remains another week in the Bo Nix QB1 streaming saga. His 30.8 points in Week 11 were exactly the performance we banked on in last week’s column. Denver rolls into Vegas next week, and it’s safe to say the Raiders stink. Nix is worth the boosted FAAB bid because, like last week, he can propel your fantasy team to victory nearly on his own. Nix has produced no fewer than 17.7 fantasy points in each of his last five games.
Drake Maye (NE): 14% rostered
- Next Opponents: @MIA, IND, BYE
- True value: $3
- Desperate Need: $5
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Maye has been surprisingly consistent for New England. The Patriots are in a full rebuild around their standout rookie quarterback, but he has been a calming presence and an elevator to those around him. I’m more likely to stream Maye in Week 13 against the Colts, since the Dolphins are such a tough matchup. Then again, Maye has a really safe floor with his rushing ability alone. Maye has averaged 41.3 rushing yards per game over his six starts.
Anthony Richardson (IND): 47% rostered
- Next Opponents: DET, @NE, BYE
- True value: $2
- Desperate Need: $4
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: The Colts remain rudderless, but at least they righted one of their wrongs in Week 11. Richardson is the future of the franchise. His ho-hum 28 fantasy points straight off the bench against the Jets are exactly why we held him up as a top fantasy quarterback this offseason. Richardson is a viable streaming option for Week 12, but I probably won’t hold onto him after this week’s game against Detroit since he hasn’t been consistent.
Jameis Winston (CLE): 12% rostered
- Next Opponents: PIT, @DEN, @PIT
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: Why wouldn’t I bid more on a guy who just put up 28.6 fantasy points in Week 11? First of all, it’s the Browns. They have struggled to piece together consecutive good weeks. Most importantly, Cleveland’s next three games are a murderer’s row of opposing defenses. The Steelers appear twice in the next three weeks, with the nasty Broncos sandwiched in between. It’s slim picking for streaming quarterbacks this week. Hopefully you don’t have to reach your hand into this cookie jar full of scorpions to grab Winston. It’s still baffling that it took an injury for Kevin Stefanski to turn to Jameis over Deshaun Watson, who was having a historically terrible season against a very soft schedule before tearing his Achilles.
TIGHT ENDS
Written by Derek Brown
Will Dissly (LAC): 23% rostered
- Next Opponents: BAL, @ATL, @KC
- True value: $6
- Desperate Need: $9
- Budget-minded: $4
Analysis: Dissly was a godsend for TE-needy teams in Week 11, with a 16.7% target, 80 receiving yards and a score. He has become a trusted weapon for Justin Herbert over the last few weeks. I expect Herbert to lean on Dissly again in Week 12 against a Baltimore secondary that has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Dissly isn’t just a one-week streamer, either. After he tangles with Baltimore, he faces the Falcons and Chiefs, who have allowed the ninth-most and second-most fantasy points per game, respectively, to tight ends.
Hunter Henry (NE): 45% rostered
- Next Opponents: @MIA, IND, BYE
- True value: $2
- Desperate Need: $4
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: With Drake Maye under center full-time, Henry has had a 19.8% target share and finished with at least 41 receiving yards in four of five games. He has been about as consistent as they come as a fringe TE1 weekly. I wouldn’t look to stream Henry against Miami despite the steady stream of volume he has seen. Miami has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. But I would consider plugging Henry into a lineup against Indy in Week 13. The Colts have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Ja’Tavion Sanders (CAR): 2% rostered
- Next Opponents: KC, TB, @PHI
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: Since Week 5, Sanders has had a 14.4% target share, 1.76 yards per route run and a 12.8% first-read share (per Fantasy Points Data). During those six games, he has one end-zone target and two TE1 finishes in weekly scoring (TE12, TE8). This week, Sanders has a wonderful matchup against the Chiefs, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Zach Ertz (WAS): 33% rostered
- Next Opponents: DAL, TEN, BYE
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: Ertz has been a fringe TE1 for most of the season, as he has gobbled up an 18.8% target share with 1.54 yards per route run and an 18.2% first-read share (per Fantasy Points Data). Ertz has five end-zone targets this season. He’s a strong streaming option again this week against a Dallas defense that has allowed the third-most receiving touchdowns (tied) and the most yards per reception to tight ends.
Theo Johnson (NYG): 1% rostered
- Next Opponents: TB, @DAL, NO
- True value: $0
- Desperate Need: $1
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: Since Week 5, Johnson has had a 10.5% target share, 1.08 yards per route run and a 13.3% first-read share (per Fantasy Points Data). During this six-game stretch, he had one TE1 weekly finish and averaged 30.6 receiving yards per game. Johnson checks in as a low-end streaming option this week against a Bucs defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
DEFENSES
Written by Pat Fitzmaurice
Washington Commanders: 20% rostered
- Next Opponents: DAL, TEN, BYE
- True value: $2
- Desperate Need: $5
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: The Washington defense has become a respectable unit after being a laughingstock a year ago. In 2023, the Commanders gave up 272.2 passing yards per game and 39 TD passes — both league highs. They had the worst opponent passer rating in the league. So far this year, the Commanders are giving up 200.6 passing yards per game. It would be a stretch to say Washington has one of the better pass defenses in the league, and the run defense still needs work, but the Commanders’ defense is no longer a pushover. Washington has a favorable two-week stretch ahead with games against Dallas and Tennessee. The improved Washington D should be able to collect a few sacks and interceptions against Cowboys QB Cooper Rush and Titans QB Will Levis. Spend an extra buck on the Commanders and ride them through Week 13.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 11% rostered
- Next Opponents: @NYG, @CAR, LV
- True value: $2
- Desperate Need: $4
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: The Buccaneers have given up an average of 31.3 points over their last six games. Tampa Bay’s pass defense has been a sieve this year. And yet, the Bucs are attractive as a streaming defense because of their upcoming schedule. Their next three games are against the Giants, Panthers and Raiders. Entering Week 11, the Giants had given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, the Panthers had given up the 12th-most, and the Raiders had given up the most. The defensive streaming options are thoroughly unappealing this week, so hold your nose and bid a dollar or two on the Bucs.
Arizona Cardinals: 4% rostered
- Next Opponents: @SEA, @MIN, SEA
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $1
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: The Cardinals have quietly been a solid fantasy defense this season. They’re averaging 7.4 fantasy points per game and have scored 12 fantasy points in each of their last two contests. Arizona has a Week 12 matchup against Seattle, which entered Week 11 having allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to defenses. Seahawks QB Geno Smith has thrown 11 interceptions and taken 32 sacks this year.
Tennessee Titans: 7% rostered
- Next Opponents: @HOU, @WSH, JAX
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $1
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: The Tennessee defense has been a much more effective unit in real life than in fantasy. The Titans entered Week 11 tied for 27th in fantasy points per game but were ranked 11th in defensive DVOA. The Titans have a Week 12 matchup against the Texans, whose offensive line has collapsed over the last month. Texans QB C.J. Stroud was sacked 18 times over a four-game stretch from Week 7 to Week 10.
DEF Stash Candidate:
- Atlanta Falcons
Fantasy managers with deep rosters looking to get in early on a favorable playoff matchup might want to consider the Falcons, who play the Raiders in Week 15 and the Giants in Week 16.
KICKERS
Written by Pat Fitzmaurice
Spencer Shrader (KC): 5% rostered
- Next Opponents: @CAR, LV, LAC
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: Shrader has played three games this season for three different teams — the Colts, Jets and Chiefs. He’s 2-of-2 on field goals and 6-of-6 on extra points. It’s hard to say whether the rookie is actually a good kicker. Perhaps he isn’t, since he made only 68.3% of his FG tries over four college seasons at South Florida and one at Notre Dame. But Shrader is tied to a good offense, and Kansas City has favorable matchups against Carolina and Las Vegas over the next two weeks. The Panthers and Raiders are both among the five most generous teams to opposing kickers in fantasy scoring.
Chase McLaughlin (TB): 11% rostered
- Next Opponents: @NYG, @CAR, LV
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $1
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: McLaughlin went into his Week 11 bye averaging 9.0 fantasy points per game, which left him just outside the top 10 in kicker scoring. He’s made 16-of-17 field goals this year and 29-of-30 extra points. McLaughlin gets a solid matchup against the Giants this week, and the Buccaneers’ offense could get a boost if WR Mike Evans is able to return from a hamstring injury.
Will Lutz (DEN): 12% rostered
- Next Opponents: @LV, CLE, BYE
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $1
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: After missing two FG attempts against the Chiefs in Week 10, Lutz rebounded by making his only FG try against the Falcons on Sunday (a 45-yarder) and going 5-for-5 on extra points. The Broncos are one of the NFL’s most-improved teams, and Lutz gets a favorable Week 12 matchup against the Raiders, who have been among the most generous teams to opposing kickers.
John Parker Romo (MIN): 8% rostered
- Next Opponents: @CHI, ARI, ATL
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $1
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: Romo missed an extra point on Sunday — his first errant kick in his two games with the Vikings — but he’s a perfect 5-of-5 on field goals with Minnesota. The Vikings are a strong team with a favorable Week 12 matchup against the struggling Bears, so JPR looks like a solid streaming option.
Brandon McManus (GB): 14% rostered
- Next Opponents: SF, MIA, @DET
- True value: $0
- Desperate Need: $1
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: McManus is a reliable kicker tied to a good offense, so he’s a reasonable option if you’re looking to add a kicker for a zero-dollar bid. As we’ve noted before, however, one drawback with McManus is that Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is aggressive about going for it on fourth down — as when he eschewed a field goal Sunday against the Bears when the Packers had a 4th-and-goal from the Bears’ 8-yard line. McManus is 6-of-7 on field goals and 8-of-8 on extra points since joining the Packers in Week 7.
FOOL’S GOLD
TE Noah Gray had two TD catches for the Chiefs in their loss to the Bills on Sunday. They were Gray’s first two touchdowns of the season, and he’s topped 40 receiving yards only once in 10 games. Gray spends most of his time dwelling in Travis Kelce‘s shadow, so don’t expect an encore.
Alec Pierce had three catches for 74 yards Sunday in the Colts’ win over the Jets. QB Anthony Richardson looked good in his return to Indy’s starting lineup, but passing volume is often limited for the Colts in Richardson’s starts, and Pierce is third in the target pecking order behind Josh Downs and Michael Pittman. Sure, Pierce is a dangerous big-play threat who’s averaging 22.7 yards per catch, but he’s only averaging 2.4 catches per game.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine scored his fifth touchdown of the season In Week 11, making a 98-yard house call for the longest TD from scrimmage of the NFL season thus far. Westbrook-Ikhine has scored a touchdown on one-third of his receptions this season. That’s right: five touchdowns on 15 catches. Obviously, that’s not the sort of volume we can count on in the fantasy sphere.
DROP RECOMMENDATIONS
Droppable:
Tight ends are usually heavily involved in Arthur Smith’s offenses, but the Steelers’ offensive coordinator hasn’t exactly carved out a big role for Pat Freiermuth this season. Freiermuth has 31-295-3 in 10 games. He has fewer than 25 receiving yards in five of his last six games. Perhaps most alarming is that Freiermuth hasn’t seen more than three targets in a game since Sept. 29. If you’re still holding Freiermuth, it’s time to bid him adieu.
Aaron Rodgers has a Week 12 bye, and he certainly hasn’t done enough for you to hold him through a bye week in a 1QB league.
Mike Williams failed to draw a single target Sunday in his second game with the Steelers even though Steelers QB Russell Wilson threw a season-high 36 passes. Pittsburgh is one of the run-heaviest teams in the league, and George Pickens has become the Steelers’ clear alpha receiver. Williams simply isn’t playable right now, and there’s a good chance he won’t be for the remainder of the fantasy season.
Droppable with a chance of regret:
The Ravens’ onboarding of Diontae Johnson is moving at a glacially slow pace. Johnson played a total of 22 snaps in his first two games with Baltimore. Sunday, in his third game with his new teams, Johnson played 11 snaps and drew two targets in a revenge-game spot against his old team, the Steelers. He finished with zero catches. You can’t play Johnson this week against the Chargers when he’s been so uninvolved. Even if he shows a pulse this week, Johnson would be hard to play in a tough Week 13 matchup against the Eagles, and then he has a Week 14 bye. It’s possible Johnson pops at some point, but it’s hard to see him becoming startable at any point over the next six weeks.
Tyler Lockett has drawn four or fewer targets in each of his last three games. D.K. Metcalf returned from a knee injury on Sunday, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba seems to be in the midst of a second-year breakout. That leaves the 32-year-old Lockett as a third wheel. The savvy veteran might have a good game here or there, but Lockett can’t be comfortably started even in deep leagues.
Raheem Mostert‘s role had already been reduced to the point that he was sharing backup duties with rookie Jaylen Wright behind Miami lead back De’Von Achane, and then Mostert left Sunday’s game against the Raiders with a hip injury. Even if the injury turns out to be minor, Mostert simply doesn’t have the fantasy appeal he had a year ago as a prolific TD scorer.
Don’t drop yet:
Romeo Doubs and Tucker Kraft investors were no doubt aghast at how little those two Green Bay pass catchers did on Sunday. Doubs had a single 17-yard catch on two targets. Kraft had zero catches on one target. It was a strange game for the Packers, who ran only 46 offensive plays in their 21-20 win over the Bears. Packers QB Jordan Love attempted only 17 passes. Consider it a low-volume anomaly. Don’t panic-drop Doubs or Kraft.
It certainly looked as if rookie Audric Estime had leapfrogged Javonte Williams to become Denver’s primary early-down back. Estime out-carried Williams 14-1 in the Broncos’ narrow Week 10 loss to the Chiefs. But Williams out-carried Estime 9-6 and out-snapped him 32-14 Sunday in the Broncos’ blowout win over the Falcons. If you spent FAAB money to acquire Estime last week, hold onto him for now. The tectonic plates in the Denver backfield might not have stopped shifting. It’s still possible Estime could become a useful asset down the stretch.
