Hello and welcome to the Week 12 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit and waiver decisions or betting picks (some of which I’ll provide myself). There can be a lot of noise in football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.

Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to target players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them.

• Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team’s average plays per game to its seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (running plays faster) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
• Team Pass Rates: Compares a team’s pass rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn’t a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
• Running Back Usage: Compares rushing expected fantasy points per game to his receiving expected fantasy points per game, with the size of the player’s point as his snap percentage. I use expected fantasy points as a measure of one’s workload in that specific area of the game, so it can help us discern which players are getting strong rushing or receiving workloads.
• Wide Receiver & Tight End Usage: Compares a player’s weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his routes run rate (as a percent of the team’s dropbacks), with the size of the player’s point as yards per route run (YPRR). WOPR weighs both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player’s opportunity with routes run as another measure of how often he’s on the field to identify which players are running routes but not getting usage. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.

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Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways

Team Pace and Plays

• The Commanders face the Cowboys in what could have been a fun late-season matchup but is now being billed as a lopsided affair. That said, there’s plenty of reason to believe that the Commanders will be able to pull their weight in the scoring column. First, they’ve played with a ton of pace all year, ranking 4th in neutral-script seconds per play and first in no-huddle rate. While we have seen their offense take a slight step back, they still rank 5th in early down success rate, so they should have no issues sustaining drives against a Cowboys defense that ranks 26th in early down success rate allowed this year. Another reason why Washington should have plenty of opportunities to score is that Dallas continues to play quickly as well. And when you have an offense that plays fast but can’t move the ball because they’re led by Cooper Rush, that should lead to an extra possession or two with solid field position. With the Commanders coming off of extra rest and the Cowboys on a short week, I feel good about Washington laying on the points against their division rival.
  • Action: bet Commanders over 27.5 points (-115 or better)

Team Pass Rates

• The Seattle Seahawks started as one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league with a PROE of at least +8% in four of their first five games. They’ve since changed course and have had a negative PROE in four of their last five games. This decrease in passing has come primarily at the expense of Tyler Lockett, who has seen a drop of nearly two targets per game between the two samples I mentioned above. That even includes two games that DK Metcalf missed. Oddly enough, Jaxon Smith-Njigba‘s target volume has been more sustainable in this recent stretch with at least six targets in each of his last seven games. In any case, Lockett’s 80% routes run rate is certainly enough for you to keep him rostered, but Seattle will need to revert back to their pass-happy ways for him to find his way into any lineup, even as a flex option.
  • Action: bench Tyler Lockett, hold Jaxon Smith-Njigba and DK Metcalf

Running Back Usage

• After a two-game absence, Brian Robinson returned to the Commanders’ starting lineup on Thursday Night Football. He handled a 53% snap share, which was his highest in a game since Week 4. Robinson also got a healthy 17 total opportunities, but his high-value touch (HVT) volume is lacking as he hasn’t had more than three such touches in a game since Week 4. It’s Austin Ekeler who has been commanding the high-value work, averaging nearly five HVTs per game in his last six games. In fact, his eight HVTs on Thursday were the most for a Commanders running back in a game this season. They were all receptions, but with the lack of depth at receiver for Washington, it makes sense that Ekeler would continue to remain heavily involved as a pass-catching threat. Ultimately, I think both of these backs will continue to be worth starting in fantasy with Ekeler getting the receiving work and Robinson getting the red zone work. Furthermore, the Commanders are tied for having the fourth-easiest running back schedule for the rest of the season according to the FantasyPros Strength of Schedule tool.
  • Action: buy Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson
• With Khalil Herbert traded to the Bengals, that left the Bears with a two-headed committee in the backfield between D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson. A backfield once previously led by Swift may be shifting a bit as his 57% snap share was his second-lowest of the season while Johnson’s 42% share was his first game over 40%. Most notable, though, was the goal-line usage as Johnson got three of the four touches inside the 10-yard line. Head coach Matt Eberflus also said after the game, “I think the distribution in the run game was good,” when referencing the workload distribution between these two backs. Johnson got 11 opportunities to Swift’s 16 and that split feels like it’ll be representative going forward. Most concerning for Swift was that his routes run rate dipped below 40% for the second time in the last four games, something that didn’t happen in the first six games. With Thomas Brown calling plays for the first time this week, I consider all this usage to have a lot of signal.
  • Action: buy Roschon Johnson, sell D’Andre Swift

Wide Receiver Usage

• The Patriots starting Drake Maye has given new life to the New England offense. Unfortunately, that hasn’t translated to success for the Patriots’ receivers from a fantasy football perspective. Just three times since Week 6 (Maye’s first start) has a Patriots wide receiver recorded double-digit Half-PPR points in a game. The only two players running a route on more than 60% of the team’s dropbacks in that six-game span are Kayshon Boutte and tight end Hunter Henry. DeMario Douglas, however, is averaging a decent 6.6 targets per game in the five games that Maye has played fully while Boutte is down at 4.6 per game. That said, Boutte profiles as New England’s deep threat with an average depth of target over 16 yards in all but one game since Week 5, so his production will be much more variable. These two are the only Patriots receivers worth holding, and they have some slight stash value to be worth rostering through the playoffs.
  • Action: add Kayshon Boutte, hold Demario Douglas
• Another team led by a rookie quarterback, the Denver Broncos, have seen a bit more success from their wide receivers. Following his zero-catch game in Week 7, Courtland Sutton has been on a scorching hot run. Sutton has at least 100 receiving yards or a touchdown in all but one game (Week 11) and is averaging 9.5 targets per game. If the Broncos continue to pass more (they have a 0.8% PROE in their last four games) then Sutton could be considered a low-end WR2 as his route participation is also elite. As for the other receivers, there hasn’t been much separation in the target tree with Devaughn Vele, Troy Franklin, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, and Marvin Mims all rotating snaps. The one I would have the most interest in rostering in deep leagues is Vele, who has back-to-back games with a routes run rate of over 70%. He’ll definitely need targets to become more concentrated or Denver to pass more because his 4.5 targets per game aren’t enough to have me consider starting him.
  • Action: hold Courtland Sutton, add Devaughn Vele

Tight End Usage

• Where were you for the Will Dissly legacy game? Okay, maybe that wasn’t the main headline of Sunday Night Football, but it’s an important one nevertheless as he finished as the TE5 on the week. Dissly now has at least six targets in four of his last five games despite his routes run rate dipping in two consecutive weeks. In that stretch, he’s the TE13 in Half-PPR points per game. The Chargers also continue to lean more into the pass with a positive PROE in four of their last five games, so the volume should continue. If you’re looking for a capable tight end through the latter half of the season, look no further than Big Montana himself.
  • Action: buy Will Dissly
• Tucker Kraft returned from the bye with a dud, recording just one target that sailed over his head for a Jordan Love interception. This level of usage isn’t out of the norm, though. Just three times all year has Kraft seen more than four targets in a game as he’s relied on explosive plays to maintain fantasy value. Part of this has to do with Green Bay leaning more run-heavy with a -10.3% PROE in their last four games, the second-lowest rate in the league. Kraft’s routes run rate is still at a healthy 77% this season, which ranks fourth among tight ends, but his targets per route run rate ranks at a lowly 16%.
  • Action: sell Tucker Kraft

Quick Hops

• Josh Jacobs had a season-high eight HVTs in the win over Chicago. He got much more involved in the passing game with a 65% routes run rate (second game over 60%). He could be setting up for a league-winning stretch if this usage continues.
• According to JJ Zachariason, Michael Pittman led the Colts with a 29% target share. He’s averaged a target share per game rate of 21% over his last four, and he’s failed to score 10 PPR points in each of those games. This is the type of volatility you’re going to see with Pittman, especially if Anthony Richardson remains the quarterback.
• Though he ran a route on a season-high 76% of dropbacks, Mike Gesicki totaled just two targets in the first game back with Tee Higgins. The on-off splits for Gesicki with Higgins continue to hold true and I have no reason to believe it’ll change in the future.

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