Hello and welcome to the Week 11 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit and waiver decisions or betting picks (some of which I’ll provide myself). There can be a lot of noise in football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.
Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to target players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them.
- Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team’s average plays per game to its seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (running plays faster) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
- Team Pass Rates: Compares a team’s pass rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn’t a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
- Running Back Usage: Compares rushing expected fantasy points per game to his receiving expected fantasy points per game, with the size of the player’s point as his snap percentage. I use expected fantasy points as a measure of one’s workload in that specific area of the game, so it can help us discern which players are getting strong rushing or receiving workloads.
- Wide Receiver & Tight End Usage: Compares a player’s weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his routes run rate (as a percent of the team’s dropbacks), with the size of the player’s point as yards per route run (YPRR). WOPR weighs both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player’s opportunity with routes run as another measure of how often he’s on the field to identify which players are running routes but not getting usage. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.
Hello and welcome to the Week 11 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit and waiver decisions or betting picks (some of which I’ll provide myself). There can be a lot of noise in football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.
Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to target players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them.
- Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team’s average plays per game to its seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (running plays faster) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
- Team Pass Rates: Compares a team’s pass rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn’t a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
- Running Back Usage: Compares rushing expected fantasy points per game to his receiving expected fantasy points per game, with the size of the player’s point as his snap percentage. I use expected fantasy points as a measure of one’s workload in that specific area of the game, so it can help us discern which players are getting strong rushing or receiving workloads.
- Wide Receiver & Tight End Usage: Compares a player’s weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his routes run rate (as a percent of the team’s dropbacks), with the size of the player’s point as yards per route run (YPRR). WOPR weighs both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player’s opportunity with routes run as another measure of how often he’s on the field to identify which players are running routes but not getting usage. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.
Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways
Team Pace and Plays
- Previously, the Colts were one of the fastest-paced teams in the league. With the quarterback change, Indianapolis has slowed it down ever so slightly to where they have been middle-of-the-pack in terms of pace the last four weeks. Subsequently, their offense has struggled mightily as they rank dead last in early-down success rate and 31st in overall success rate over the past four weeks. They’ll be facing a Jets team that, in addition to playing slow on offense, ranks sixth in early-down success rate allowed this season. The Jets are one of the most pass-heavy teams, but have a -2.1% completion percentage over expected this season and are all-around a middling offense. For all these reasons, I really like the under in this game. Now we just need to pray that Flacco doesn’t kill us with another pick-six.
- Action: bet under 44 (-110 or better)
Team Pass Rates
- Aside from a short span in the middle of the season, the Steelers have been one of the most run-heavy teams of the season. Still, the Steelers’ passing attack has thrived lately because Russell Wilson boasts an absurd 7.1% touchdown rate in the three games he’s started for the Steelers. George Pickens has still thrived because of this as he’s averaged 18 PPR points per game with Wilson under center, running a route on over 80% of the team’s dropbacks in each. Van Jefferson (73% routes rate, 3.3 targets per game), Pat Freiermuth (69%, 2.7), and Calvin Austin (62%, 4.7) are the only other pass catchers remotely involved. Mike Williams ran just six routes but hauled in a sick touchdown catch on his lone target. Austin’s usage is worth monitoring, especially if his route share increases, but nobody else besides he and Pickens is worth rostering.
Running Back Usage
- The Chargers welcomed back Gus Edwards after he missed the last four weeks on Injured Reserve. Edwards played on just 25% of the snaps, which is tied for his lowest rate of the season, but he did have 10 carries, which were his most since Week 2. That said, in the three games that Edwards has been given double-digit carries, the Chargers have won by at least 10 points. JK Dobbins still maintained a solid workload with 18 total opportunities and five of the team’s eight high-value touches (HVTs). He also didn’t cede any work in the passing game as he ran a route on a season-high 54% of the team’s dropbacks. Finally, it should also be noted that Kimani Vidal was a healthy scratch in this game, so he can be safely dropped. Ultimately, Dobbins remains the clear RB1 in Los Angeles, but Edwards is a great handcuff option as we near the fantasy playoffs.
- It is officially Audric Estime szn. The rookie running back played on a season-high 45% of snaps while previous starter Javonte Williams plummeted to a season-low 29%, his first game below 50%. Estime’s 14 total opportunities are almost as many as he’s had on the season up until their Week 10 game (15). Meanwhile, Williams got just one carry (and two targets) and is an afterthought at this point. This shouldn’t be a major shock since Sean Payton mentioned getting Estime more work prior to the game and backed it up after the game saying, “I thought he ran well…He’ll continue to get more reps.” I certainly didn’t expect Williams to get shoved aside this much, but at this point, I find it extremely unlikely that he will return to the level of workload he had prior to this game.
Wide Receiver Usage
- There’s a Chris Olave sized hole in the Saints’ passing offense and it’s being filled by a combination of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mason Tipton, and Kevin Austin. In the first game without Olave, no player on the team ran a route on more than 60% of the team’s dropbacks. Both Valdes-Scantling and Juwan Johnson were tied for a team-high three (3) targets in the game, but MVS had himself a day hauling in all three for 109 yards and two touchdowns. He essentially played the Rashid Shaheed role with a 28.7-yard average depth of target (ADOT), but I can’t see myself trusting a less reliable version of Shaheed at this point in the season. With the Saints continuing to lean more run-heavy, an approach I think they’ll take as they burn the clock on this season, I don’t have any interest in even using a roster spot on a Saints pass catcher (except Taysom Hill, but he doesn’t play a traditional role).
- Action: fade all Saints pass catchers
- The Ravens continue to boast the league’s best passing offense thanks to current MVP favorite Lamar Jackson. Zay Flowers continues to be Baltimore’s top receiver, running a route on 80% of dropbacks and earning a 26% target share. Tylan Wallace had a flashy game against the Bengals, but he has run more than five routes in a game just once, so he’s not worth adding. Meanwhile, Diontae Johnson has barely seen the field since being traded for, running a total of seven routes in two games with the Ravens. He’s probably fine as a bench stash if you have the space, but could also be dropped if you need immediate production at other spots. Finally, you have Rashod Bateman, who has really come on this season. Bateman has scored double-digit points in Half PPR in four of ten games, so he definitely comes with higher variance. But, he is certainly worth flexing when you need it given he’s still running a route on 77% of the team’s dropbacks and leads the team with a 13.3-yard ADOT.
Tight End Usage
- TJ Hockenson has been back for two games now and is looking like his old self. This past week, he turned his nine targets (tied for a team-high) into eight receptions for 72 yards, 24 of those coming after the catch. Additionally, his route participation rose from 58% in Week 9 to 67% in Week 10. Though the Vikings couldn’t find the end zone, Hockenson did also get two of the team’s six red zone targets this past Sunday. Since Hockenson primarily works in the intermediate part of the field while Jordan Addison is the team’s main deep threat, I could see Hockenson staying as the team’s number two target from a pure volume standpoint. He’ll be a top-8 tight end the rest of the way.
- Pat Freiermuth is going to finish this week as a top-10 tight end this week simply because he found the end zone for the third time this year. But, let me be clear, this is no reason to add and start him. He’s still running a route at a solid 69% clip, but since Week 5 hasn’t been targeted more than three times in a single game. For a team in Pittsburgh that throws at one of the lowest rates (their -8.6% PROE ranks 31st), there’s no way that Freiermuth falls into more volume. This is as easy as a fade as you’ll see.
Quick Hops
- In his last two games, Chase Brown has a combined 56 total opportunities and 21 high-value touches while playing on over 80% of the team’s snaps. Being on a top-5 offense with that big of a workload makes him a top-12 running back the rest of the way.
- Ricky Pearsall has run a route on more than 60% of dropbacks in every game this season, notably hitting 64% in the first game that both he and Jauan Jennings have played together. He’s averaging just five targets per game, but as the 49ers figure out what this new version of the offense looks like with Christian McCaffrey back and Brandon Aiyuk out, Pearsall figures to be one of the key cogs in the machine. He’s most certainly worth an add if he’s still out there in your league.
- Taysom Hill is a viable streamer at tight end this week. He ran a route on a season-high 63% of routes this past week, topping his previous high of 48% in Week 9. He’s also had at least six touches in the three games he’s played since returning from injury.
