Hello and welcome to the Week 10 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit and waiver decisions or betting picks (some of which I’ll provide myself). There can be a lot of noise in football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.
Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to target players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them.
- Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team’s average plays per game to its seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (running plays faster) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
- Team Pass Rates: Compares a team’s pass rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn’t a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
- Running Back Usage: Compares rushing expected fantasy points per game to his receiving expected fantasy points per game, with the size of the player’s point as his snap percentage. I use expected fantasy points as a measure of one’s workload in that specific area of the game, so it can help us discern which players are getting strong rushing or receiving workloads.
- Wide Receiver & Tight End Usage: Compares a player’s weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his routes run rate (as a percent of the team’s dropbacks), with the size of the player’s point as yards per route run (YPRR). WOPR weighs both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player’s opportunity with routes run as another measure of how often he’s on the field to identify which players are running routes but not getting usage. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.
Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways
Team Pace and Plays
- Two of the slowest teams, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Minnesota Vikings, face each other this Sunday. Both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the league in seconds per play as well as plays per game. You may also think that the Vikings are a pass-heavy team given their season-long PROE is positive, but they currently have the lowest expected pass rate in the league this year. The one concern is that the Vikings’ offense has been great at generating explosive plays while the Jaguars haven’t offered much resistance in limiting explosive plays. I think Minnesota having an incredible offensive day is one of the few outs for the total not going under and I make this total closer to 46 with my raw numbers.
- Action: bet under 47.5 (-110 or better)
Team Pass Rates
- The Eagles are nearly falling off of the chart above with how little they’re throwing the ball lately. It makes sense why they are leaning towards the run, though, given they lead the league in explosive rush rate and are sixth in rushing EPA per play over their last four games. They also haven’t had to run in those games, though, as they have a 55% expected pass rate, the second-lowest in the league in that span. Because of this run-heavy approach, the raw volume for key pass catchers has dwindled. Since their Week 5 bye, AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith are averaging just 6.0 and 4.8 targets per game, respectively. But, after facing the Cowboys this week, they have a stretch of games against the Commanders, Rams, and Ravens — all teams that should force the Eagles into passing the ball more. Brown and Smith have still combined for a 58% target share on the season, so if the overall pass volume goes up (as I expect it will), they’ll be major beneficiaries.
- Action: buy AJ Brown (pending health) and DeVonta Smith
Running Back Usage
- Tampa Bay officially has a two-headed monster in the backfield. Both Rachaad White and Bucky Irving are offering solid fantasy value. Though they’re both coming off of middling weeks production-wise, the usage continues to be encouraging. Over the last three weeks, both of them are averaging over 11 opportunities per game. What’s most encouraging is that they’re both averaging 5.3 high-value touches per game. With this level of workload, it’ll keep their floors at a decent level while offering a solid weekly ceiling. But why I’m slightly more encouraged by Irving is that his role in the passing game has increased. Prior to White missing Week 6, Irving ran a route on just 25% of the team’s dropbacks and averaged 2.4 targets per game. In the three games since then, his routes run rate is up marginally to 31% but he’s averaging 4.3 targets per game (he has just two fewer targets than White in that span). With the injuries Tampa Bay has suffered at wide receiver, I expect both White and Irving to continue to be involved in the passing game, which will keep the high-value touches flowing.
- Action: hold Rachaad White, buy Bucky Irving
- The Cowboys’ season has taken a turn for the worse with Dak Prescott (likely) out for several weeks. Which is a shame, because Rico Dowdle was just starting to build some momentum. On Sunday, with Ezekiel Elliott inactive, Dowdle was given 18 opportunities (2nd-most in a game this season) and had a 71% snap share, by far his highest of the season. He also ran a route on 48% of routes, his most of the season, which is especially encouraging with how often Dallas will be passing the ball. It was also great to see that Dalvin Cook (two opportunities on seven snaps) was essentially a nonfactor. While I would normally suggest this as a sell-high point for Dowdle, his value is diminished because of the Dak injury, so I would prefer to hold onto him for now.
- Action: hold Rico Dowdle
- The Cardinals’ backfield got a little bit more confusing this past week… or did it? Let’s take a look. For the first time all year, each of James Conner, Emari Demarcado, and Trey Benson all played on at least 20% of the team’s snaps. Though he did still get a healthy 21 opportunities, Conner’s 48% snap rate was a season-low mark in a game that he played full. You might be thinking that Benson and Demarcado got work because this game was a blowout win, but both of them got work in the first half when this game remained close. Benson saw the biggest jump in value as his nine opportunities were tied for the second-most he’s had in a game this year. Arizona’s -6.4% pass rate over expected also ranks 26th in the league this year, so you know that they want to run it a lot. Both Demarcado and Benson should be rostered down the stretch as great handcuff options.
- Action: add Emari Demercado and Trey Benson
Wide Receiver Usage
- After a four-week stretch that made it seem like the Bears had an above-average offense, Chicago has taken a step back in the past two games. Caleb Williams averaged just over 260 passing yards per game in those four games but has posted just 131 and 217 passing yards in the last two games, and they’ve been against defenses that typically don’t offer much resistance. As such, that downturn in production has trickled down to his receivers. The good news is that DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze are the only three wide receivers on the team consistently running routes. Both Allen and Moore profile similar with an equal 9.95-yard average depth of target (ADOT) while Odunze has become the de facto deep threat with a 15-yard ADOT. As such, Odunze’s target share has rarely matched that of the other two as he only has two games with more than six total targets. In the two games since the bye, Allen has actually led the team with a 30% target share, perhaps signaling that his injury concerns are behind him. Moore has continued to get decent work but hasn’t posted a double-digit fantasy day in his last three games. Unfortunately, these three will likely continue to cannibalize each other’s opportunities, but I’m optimistic the production for the team turns around, so I’m not selling them yet and would just wait until that day (hopefully) comes.
- Action: hold DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze
- Cedric Tillman is going to be a league winner this year. In the three games that Tillman has played without Amari Cooper, Tillman has averaged an incredible 18.7 Half-PPR points per game. Though he’s scored three touchdowns in that span, I don’t find his production unsustainable. In the last three weeks, the second-year receiver is running a route on 88% of the team’s dropbacks and leads the team in both air yards share (35%) and target share (24%). While the 10+ targets per game average may not hold, pass volume for Cleveland should remain high as their 70% pass rate on the year leads the league and Jameis Winston has attempted at least 40 throws in the two games he’s started. I’m in.
- Action: buy Cedric Tillman
- When Joe Flacco was announced as the Colts’ starter a couple of weeks ago, many expected him to lift the tides of all the Colts’ receivers. Unfortunately, that’s really only happened for Josh Downs so far. Downs has been targeted nine times in each of the past two games (he’s actually had at least nine targets in all but two of his seven games played this year). While he has yet to eclipse an 80% routes run rate, his 34% targets per route run rate ranks first among 109 qualifying wide receivers. All this to say, if he starts running more routes, there’s still untapped potential for him. Michael Pittman, on the other hand, continues to run routes at a very high clip as he leads the team with an 82% routes run rate. But, the targets haven’t come for him as he’s averaging a middling five targets per game since Week 6. Relatedly, Pittman’s ADOT has risen from 10 yards in the first five weeks to nearly 16 yards in the last four weeks. He now has an 11.9-yard ADOT this season (a career-high), and is up drastically from his 7.9-yard ADOT last year, which I think suited his skillset much better. Downs is the de facto WR1 in this offense now, with Pittman offering a more boom-or-bust profile.
- Action: buy Josh Downs, hold (but bench) Michael Pittman, and sell all other Colts wide receivers
Tight End Usage
- Would you believe me if I said that Sunday was Mike Gesicki‘s best fantasy day in his career? Well, that is indeed the case! Gesicki’s 24.5 Half-PPR points were a career-high and just the fifth time in his 107 career games in which he scored at least 20 fantasy points. That said, I wouldn’t be buying into the production when Tee Higgins returns. In games that Higgins has not played, Gesicki has a 19.6% target share. That drops down to just 5.6% in games that Higgins plays. Gesicki also still has yet to run a route on more than 60% of the team’s dropbacks in a single game, with or without Higgins. It was a fun week and congrats if you started him, but I wouldn’t trust him when Higgins returns to the lineup.
- Action: sell Mike Gesicki
- Another tight end who had the best day of his career (albeit a much shorter one so far) was Giants rookie tight end Theo Johnson. Johnson hauled in three of a season-high six targets for 51 yards and a score (his first of the year) on Sunday. The recent peripheral stats for Johnson actually look quite good. Since Week 5, Johnson has run a route on 69% of dropbacks with an 8.4-yard ADOT. But, the raw target volume isn’t enough to move the needle for me as his six targets this past week was the firs time he was over five all season and he has three games with one or zero targets total. If an injury occurs to one of the receivers then maybe he’s in play, but until then his Sunday performance can be safely ignored.
- Action: fade Theo Johnson
Quick Hops
- Chase Brown was given a season-high 32 opportunities on Sunday and is now averaging over 18 opportunities per game since Week 4. The Khalil Herbert trade should just be a replacement for Zack Moss, who is expected to miss the rest of the season. The wheels remain up for Brown.
- In Brian Robinson‘s absence, Chris Rodriguez was given more opportunities (11) than Jeremy McNichols (9). More crucially, Rodriguez was given four high-value touches, all of which were touches inside the opponent’s 10-yard line (McNichols has just five HVTs all year).
- Both Xavier Legette and David Moore ran a route on 86% of Carolina’s dropbacks on Sunday, which were season-high marks for both. Jalen Coker, one of fantasy football’s current heartthrobs, was at just 55% and has been above 70% just once this year. With Jonathan Mingo out of town now, Coker could stand to benefit from more routes.
- Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams combined for 21 targets in their Thursday Night Football matchup against the Texans while no other receiver or tight end had more than two targets. The Jets are funneling targets to the right players now. There’s a case to be made that Wilson and Adams are both top-15 wide receivers the rest of the way if this target concentration continues.