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Fantasy Football Trade Advice: Week 12
Players to Buy
Bijan Robinson: Led the rushing attack with 12 carries for 35 yards, averaging 2.9 yards per carry, with a long of 9 yards. One red-zone rushing attempt but did not score.
Tyler Allgeier had zero first-half carries and overall. Robinson led the backfield with a 71% snap share to Allgeier’s 7%. Bijan ranks fourth in the NFL in touches. After this bad game, this is likely you’re last chance to buy low.
George Pickens led the passing attack with 8 receptions on 12 targets for 89 yards, averaging 11.1 yards per catch, with a long of 37 yards and 28 yards after the catch.
One red-zone reception from two targets but no touchdowns. 38% target share and 89 air yards. Still, the best might be yet to come. Keep in mind he only had two TDs this season despite being top-10 in yards among WRs. Dude has been absolutely balling with Wilson under center, with a 30% target share, 48% air yards share averaging 91 receiving yards per game. Buy HIM aggressively.
Davante Adams led the receivers, catching 6 of his 7 targets for 72 yards (24% target share). He averaged 12 yards per reception, with a long of 24 yards and 56 yards after the catch.
Garrett Wilson caught 4 of his 8 targets for 18 yards, averaging 4.5 yards per reception with a long of 7 yards. Back-to-back dud games for Wilson despite a 28% target share and 54% air yards share.
Given the Jets’ remaining schedule, you need to be buying BOTH Jets’ WRs after this bad game. At least kick the tires on both of them. Remember, the Jets get the Rams and Jaguars in the first two weeks of the fantasy football playoffs. They play all the snaps.
The Jets are on a much overdue Week 12 bye week. Post-bye week, Gang Green will play vs SEA, @ MIA, @ JAC, vs LAR and @ BUF.
Deebo Samuel Sr.: Hauled in 4 of 7 targets (27% target share) for 22 yards, averaging 5.5 yards per catch, with a long reception of 11 yards. Samuel Sr. ran a route on 77% of dropbacks. Caught one of two red-zone targets without scoring.
I think I’d still like to be a buyer of Deebo. Even with the emergence of Jauan Jennings as Purdy’s go-to guy, Samuel should have some big games left in him down the stretch.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI)
Marvin Harrison Jr. had a strong showing in Week 10, catching all five of his targets for 54 yards and one red-zone touchdown, averaging 10.8 yards per catch. Held a 21% target share, totaling 35 air yards for a 32% air yards share. Like the last two weeks, buy MHJ. The Cardinals are coming off their bye week in Week 11. After their bye week, the schedule is salivating for the playoff run: @ SEA, @ MIN, vs. SEA, vs. NE, @ CAR, @ LAR, and vs. SF.
In Week 10, Tyrone Tracy Jr. led with 18 carries for 103 yards and 1 touchdown, averaging 5.7 yards per carry with a long run of 32 yards. Devin Singletary added 40 rushing yards on 8 attempts, averaging 5.0 yards per carry, with a long of 14 yards. First-half carries were 8 for Tracy and three for Singletary. The rookie had three red-zone rushing attempts as well.
Tyrone Tracy: 60 snaps, 80% snap share. Devin Singletary: 17 snaps, 23% snap share. Eric Gray: 2 snaps, 3% snap share
It was a near-perfect day for Tracy, had it not been for a back-breaking lost fumble in overtime. I expect the rookie to finish the season strong. Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Giants have the No. 5 most favorable schedule for RBs. Buy.
On the ground in Week 10, Bucky Irving led the rushing attack with 13 carries for 73 yards, averaging 5.6 yards per carry, including a 14-yard run and a touchdown. Bucky led with six first-half carries to White’s two. The rookie had three red-zone rushing attempts and one rushing touchdown.
Per Next Gen Stats, Irving generated +18 rushing yards over expected and forced 5 missed tackles on rushing attempts, both of which were his 2nd-most in a game this season. Irving has forced a total of 40 missed tackles on rushing attempts this season.
Rachaad White added 10 carries for 31 yards, averaging 3.1 yards per carry, with a long of 8 yards. White had two red-zone rushing attempts, zero rushing touchdowns, one reception, one red-zone target, one receiving touchdown.
Rachaad White: 37 snaps, 61% snap share. Bucky Irving: 28 snaps, 46% snap share
In the passing game, Rachaad White led in receptions with 6 catches on 7 targets (24% target share) for 39 yards, averaging 6.5 yards per catch, with a long of 10 yards and 38 yards after the catch (YAC), including a touchdown reception.
Bucky Irving contributed to the receiving game as well, with 3 catches on 3 targets for 14 yards, averaging 4.7 yards per catch, with a 12-yard long and 24 YAC.
White has gotten by the last four games with five TDs.
Irving is the best running back on the Buccaneers. Not White. After White scored yet again in Week 10, you best be selling high. But if you can’t sell high on White – hold him. Great schedule for RBs rest of the season. Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, it’s No. 1 for RBs rest of season.
Rhamondre Stevenson led the backfield with 20 carries for 73 yards, averaging 3.7 yards per carry with a long run of 12 yards. Five red-zone rushing attempts but no touchdowns. He also caught both of his two red-zone targets but did not score.
Stevenson contributed in the passing game, catching all 4 targets for 16 yards, including 26 yards after the catch. 76% snap share. He also fumbled but the offense recovered.
Stevenson had another uncharacteristic finish in Week 11. His streak as the Amari Cooper of RBs this season came to an end. In his first nine games played this season. Five top 10 finishes (including three inside the top 5). Then three outside the top 40 overall.
Over the last two weeks, he has been in the RB2 range. It’s great that he has increased his floor production, that had been very shaky in previous weeks.
Like I said last week, I think I’ve reached the point with Stevenson that I only care about chasing his potential ceiling. So unless you are trading him for a sweet return (probably not), I think he’s now a buy candidate.
On the ground in Week 10, Chuba Hubbard dominated with 28 carries for 153 yards and one touchdown, averaging 5.5 yards per carry with a long run of 26 yards. Five red-zone rushing attempts, one rushing touchdown. Hubbard got hurt toward the end of the game but he returned.
Miles Sanders added 5 yards on 2 carries, averaging 2.5 yards per rush. He was carted off the field at the start of the second quarter against the Giants. Jonathon Brooks was a healthy scratch. Chuba Hubbard: 53 snaps, 88% snap share. Miles Sanders: 6 snaps, 10% snap share.
Raheem Blackshear: 2 snaps, 3% snap share
Been suggesting Hubbard as a “sell-high” the last few weeks, but the opportunity seems like it’s long gone at this point. And my stance has changed given his new extension. He is the Panthers RB1 rest of the season.
Brooks will make his debut in Week 12 for the Panthers. He’s the future for the Panthers at running back, but now so is Hubbard. If Brooks just takes on the Sanders role – five to six touches per game – that won’t impact Hubbard in any way. Might actually make Hubbard a sneaky buy. Carolina has shown zero reason to believe they are ready to give Brooks a sizeable workload after drafting him in the second round of this year’s draft.
Jaylen Waddle had two receptions on three targets for 37 yards, averaging an impressive 18.5 yards per reception with a long of 24 yards.
If you were to tell me at the beginning of the season that Smith would be the reason why Waddle is a bust in 2024, I would have laughed in your face. Entering Week 12, I still can’t believe it.
But Waddle just isn’t a focal point in the offense. Fourth in target share since Week 8 (14%).
You can’t trade Waddle because you won’t get anything for him. I think that he’s just a bench guy because we know the talent is there, but he can’t be trusted unless there’s a usage change.
But please do not just tilt-drop him. If there’s a strong waiver wire option that you like more than Waddle sure to make the move. But don’t try a high-upside player because you are frustrated. Good matchup next week against the Patriots. Christian Gonzalez shadowed Hill the last time the Patriots played Miami. Waddle saw a season-high 8 targets versus the Patriots.
So, you’re telling me there’s a chance…
In the backfield back in Week 10, Trey Benson led the Cardinals’ rushing efforts with 10 carries for 62 yards, averaging an impressive 6.2 yards per carry, with a long of 14 yards.
James Conner had a balanced game, rushing 12 times for 33 yards and a touchdown, though his 2.8 YPC was more modest. Benson had four carries in the first half for 28 yards, with one reception. Conner finished with a 54% snap share to Benson’s 27%. The rookie tied a season-high 12 touches in Week 10 after seeing nine in Week 9. Again, a friendly reminder to make sure that Benson is not available in any league formats for the upside he could deliver if there’s a Conner injury. Conner is 12th in touches this season and has been banged up here and there. We know about his long injury history.
Players to Sell
Malik Nabers led the team in targets with 10, catching six passes for 50 yards, averaging 8.3 yards per reception with a long of 19 yards. He had a 41-yard catch overturned. Still dominated with a 31% target share, gaining 111 air yards, representing 42% of air yards.
Nabers was being evaluated for a concussion in the fourth quarter. Not good. Given he missed two games with his first concussion earlier this season, he could be slated for more missed games down the road. We won’t get as much information on him with him on bye as well. If you have Nabers and can withstand him missing any games, hold him. But be sure to have a backup plan, such as Darius Slayton waiting in the wings. However, the latest news we got from Sunday is that Nabers did not sustain a concussion and should be good to go.
Per FantasyPros’ SOS tool, it’s the No. 1 most favorable schedule for fantasy WRs. However, I am terrified of relying on Tommy DeVito for fear he nukes this offense. Put Nabers on the block.
Aaron Jones managed 39 yards on 15 carries, averaging 2.6 yards per attempt, with a long run of 5 yards. One red-zone rushing attempt without scoring.
Cam Akers contributed 25 yards on 10 carries, averaging 2.5 yards per attempt, with a long run of 12 yards. One red-zone rushing attempt and one red-zone reception, resulting in a receiving touchdown.
Akers caught both of his targets for 11 yards and a receiving touchdown, averaging 5.5 yards per catch, with a long of 8 yards and 9 yards after the catch.
Jones caught his only target for 4 yards, with 6 yards after the catch.
Jones split carries six versus three in the first half with Akers.
I’ve voiced concerns about Jones’ workload in previous editions of the forecast, and we are starting to see it reduced. 53% snap marked his lowest in a game this season without any injury.
Akers needs to be rostered everywhere, given Jones’ injury history and the small injuries he’s dealt with this season.
Minnesota plays @ CHI and vs ARI. Then it’s vs ATL, vs CHI, @ SEA and vs GB.
This is a good schedule for the offense to stay on an upward trend. Hold your Vikings tight if you don’t see any great deals. However, given that Jones is an older RB who has already had a soft-body tissue injury, among others, this season, add/hold Akers. Also, entertain the idea of “selling high” on Jones based on the injury history and the fact that he is getting an overwhelming amount of touches. He’s pacing for over 300 touches coming off by far his worst game to date where he averaged 2.6 yards per carry and an abysmal 6.7% success rate. A friendly reminder that the Titans have an elite run-stuffing defense.
J.K. Dobbins: Led the backfield with 11 carries for 56 yards and 2 touchdowns, averaging 5.1 yards per carry, with a long of 29 yards. Dobbins: Added 1 catch for 3 yards finishing the game with a 735 snap share.
I had the under on Dobbins’ rushing yards prop and it looked like it was going to cash until he scored that last touchdown on the final drive to win the game.
Before the last 29-yard rushing touchdown, Dobbins was sitting on 10 carries for 27 yards. Woof.
Gus Edwards: Rushed 6 times for 27 yards, averaging 4.5 yards per carry, with a long of 9 yards. Two red-zone rushing attempts but no touchdowns.
The duo split carries five apiece in the first half, with Dobbins averaging just 1.8 yards per carry.
Hassan Haskins: Carried the ball twice for 1 yard. Two red-zone rushing attempts without a score.
If Dobbins can stay healthy, he will be a force in the fantasy football playoffs against the Patriots. However, it’s tough sledding up to that point, and adding Edwards/Haskins into the fold as red-zone headaches is another layer of complexity.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Chargers also have the second-worst-ranked schedule for running backs.
Said it last week and I’ll say it again. It’s time to sell high on Dobbins before the stretch run.
D’Andre Swift was a key contributor in the run game, leading with 14 carries for 71 yards and a touchdown, averaging 5.1 yards per carry with a long gain of 39 yards. Roschon Johnson chipped in with 33 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries, averaging 3.3 yards per attempt. D.J. Moore also added 5 rushing yards on a single attempt.
Swift out-carried RJ eight to two in the first half. But Swift also only played 57% of the snaps to Johnson’s 42%. That was a season-high snap rate for Johnson and the lowest for Swift since Week 3.
Johnson also had four red-zone rushing attempts resulted in one touchdown. Swift only had one red-zone attempt.
Use this dead-cat bounce performance by the Bears offense to SELL. No team has a more difficult schedule this season than the Bears.
From Weeks 12-17, it’s MIN, @ DET, @ SF, @ MIN, DET and SEA.
Per the FantasyPros Strength of Schedule tool, the Bears also have a bottom schedule for fantasy RBs for the rest of the season.
Sell Swift, who probably has the most value left. Injuries have decimated the Bears OL and he is losing out on high-value touches to Johnson.
Kareem Hunt: Carried the ball 14 times for 60 yards, averaging 4.3 yards per attempt, with a long of 17 yards. Three red-zone rushing attempts but no touchdowns despite a 69% snap share.
Isiah Pacheco is currently on injured reserve with an ankle injury but is expected to return for the Chiefs’ Week 12 game against the Panthers.
The usage for Hunt is virtually off-the-chart. And if he wasn’t past his prime, he’d be pushing for top 5 weekly RB status. It makes you wonder about the type of season Isiah Pacheco was set up to have before his injury.
Still, Hunt managers need to realize the dream is about to end.
Pacheco’s return creates major ambiguity about how useful Hunt will be in crunch time during the fantasy football playoffs. Don’t hold onto Hunt too tight before he totally loses value.
I am still very skeptical about how effective Pacheco will be coming off the broken leg injury, but I think his presence will hurt Hunt’s bottom line.
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