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Fantasy Football Trade Advice: Week 11
Players to Buy
On the ground in Week 9, Kenneth Walker III led the rushing attack with 25 carries, gaining 83 yards at an average of 3.3 yards per carry, with a long run of 10 yards. Walker had four red zone rush attempts, 0 rush TDs, 1 red zone target. I’d buy Walker without much shine on him coming off a bye week. He hasn’t scored in back-to-back games but has some favorable matchups in the second half of the season.
Deebo Samuel Sr. had 5 catches on 6 targets for 62 yards, averaging 12.4 yards per reception, with a long catch of 32 yards and 40 YAC. Samuel Sr. ran a route on 76% of dropbacks. Registered an 18% target share, contributing 32 air yards or 13% of air yards. All in all, if possible, you want to acquire the remaining (healthy) 49ers. Playoff schedule: vs LAR, @ MIA and vs DET.
In the receiving game, Garrett Wilson was the most productive, catching 5 of his 6 targets for 41 yards, averaging 8.2 yards per reception with a long of 12 yards. Registered an 18% target share, adding 41 air yards or 20% of air yards. Two red-zone targets, one reception, zero touchdowns. Davante Adams was targeted heavily with 13 passes but managed only 6 catches for 31 yards, averaging 5.2 yards per catch, as the Jets struggled to get him into open space. Dominated with a 39% target share, totaling 77 air yards, which accounted for 38% of the team’s air yards. Four red-zone targets, one reception, zero touchdowns. Adams had a back-breaking drop in the end zone.
Given the Jets remaining schedule, you need to be buying BOTH Jets WRs, after this bad game. At least kick the tires on both of them. Remember, the Jets get the Rams and Jaguars in the first two weeks of the fantasy football playoffs. They play all the snaps. Each ran a route on 100% of the dropbacks in Week 10. Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Jets have the sixth-ranked schedule for WRs for the rest of the season (6th for QBs).
Among receivers, George Pickens led with 5 receptions on 7 targets, totaling 91 yards and a touchdown, averaging 18.2 yards per catch, with a long of 34 yards and 31 yards after the catch (YAC). One red-zone target, one reception.
Led with a 28% target share, gaining 124 air yards, which accounted for 39% of the team’s air yards.
Dude has been absolutely balling with Wilson under center, with a 27% target share, 42% air yards share averaging 92 receiving yards per game. Buy HIM aggressively.
Because the best might be yet to come. Keep in mind he only had two TDs this season despite being top-10 in yards among WRs.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI)
Marvin Harrison Jr. had a strong showing as well, catching all five of his targets for 54 yards and one red-zone touchdown, averaging 10.8 yards per catch. Held a 21% target share, totaling 35 air yards for a 32% air yards share. Like last week, buy MHJ.
The Cardinals are on their bye week in Week 11. After their bye week, the schedule is salivating for the playoff run: @ SEA, @ MIN, vs. SEA, vs. NE, @ CAR, @ LAR, and vs. SF.
Without Brian Robinson Jr.(hamstring for second straight week), the Commanders morphed back into a two-headed monster, with just two RBs seeing significant snaps. Ekeler led the way with a 70% snap share.
Again I think I’d use this opportunity to buy low on B-Rob. He going to reclaim his role as the red-zone guy for the Commanders upon his return. The playoff schedule features the Saints, Eagles, and Falcons fresh off a Week 14 bye week.
In the rushing game, Tyrone Tracy Jr. led with 18 carries for 103 yards and 1 touchdown, averaging 5.7 yards per carry with a long run of 32 yards. Devin Singletary added 40 rushing yards on 8 attempts, averaging 5.0 yards per carry, with a long of 14 yards.
First-half carries were 8 for Tracy and three for Singletary. The rookie had three red-zone rushing attempts as well.
- Tyrone Tracy: 60 snaps, 80% snap share
- Devin Singletary: 17 snaps, 23% snap share
- Eric Gray: 2 snaps, 3% snap share
It was a near perfect day for Tracy, had it not been for a back-breaking lost fumble in overtime.
I expect the rookie to finish the season strong. Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Giants have the No. 5 most favorable schedule for RBs. Buy.
Josh Downs led the team in targets with 10, catching 7 for 72 yards, with a long reception of 21 yards. Held a 29% target share and 36% target rate, amassing 75 air yards, which accounted for 27% of air yards. He also had three red-zone targets and one reception. Downs also had a walk-in touchdown but dropped it. Continue to target Downs in trades.
On the ground, Bucky Irving led the rushing attack with 13 carries for 73 yards, averaging 5.6 yards per carry, including a 14-yard run and a touchdown. Bucky led with six first-half carries to White’s two. The rookie had three red-zone rushing attempts and one rushing touchdown.
Per Next Gen Stats, Irving generated +18 rushing yards over expected and forced 5 missed tackles on rushing attempts, both of which were his 2nd-most in a game this season. Irving has forced a total of 40 missed tackles on rushing attempts this season.
Rachaad White added 10 carries for 31 yards, averaging 3.1 yards per carry, with a long of 8 yards.
White had two red-zone rushing attempts, zero rushing touchdowns, one reception, one red-zone target, one receiving touchdown.
- Rachaad White: 37 snaps, 61% snap share
- Bucky Irving: 28 snaps, 46% snap share
In the passing game, Rachaad White led in receptions with 6 catches on 7 targets (24% target share) for 39 yards, averaging 6.5 yards per catch, with a long of 10 yards and 38 yards after the catch (YAC), including a touchdown reception.
Bucky Irving contributed to the receiving game as well, with 3 catches on 3 targets for 14 yards, averaging 4.7 yards per catch, with a 12-yard long and 24 YAC.
White has gotten by the last four games with five TDs.
Irving is the best running back on the Buccaneers. Not White. After White scored yet again, you best be selling high. But if you can’t sell high on White – hold him. Great schedule for RBs rest of the season. Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, it’s No. 1 for RBs rest of season.
On the ground, Chuba Hubbard dominated with 28 carries for 153 yards and one touchdown, averaging 5.5 yards per carry with a long run of 26 yards. Five red-zone rushing attempts, one rushing touchdown. Hubbard got hurt toward the end of the game but he returned.
Young contributed with 2 rushes for 30 yards, including a 24-yard scramble. Miles Sanders added 5 yards on 2 carries, averaging 2.5 yards per rush. He was carted off the field at the start of the second quarter. Jonathon Brooks was a healthy scratch.
- Chuba Hubbard: 53 snaps, 88% snap share
- Miles Sanders: 6 snaps, 10% snap share
- Raheem Blackshear: 2 snaps, 3% snap share
Been suggesting Hubbard as a “sell-high” the last few weeks, but the opportunity seems like it’s long gone at this point. And my stance has changed given his new extension signed last week. He is the Panthers RB1 rest of season.
Brooks will make his debut in Week 12 for the Panthers, especially if the Sanders injury is serious.
He’s the future for the Panthers at running back, but now so is Hubbard. If Brooks just takes on the Sanders role – five to six touches per game – that won’t impact Hubbard in any way. Might actually make Hubbard a sneaky buy. Because Carolina has shown zero reason to believe they are ready to give Brooks a sizeable workload after drafting him in the second round of this year’s draft.
In the ground game, Rhamondre Stevenson led with 20 carries for 74 yards, averaging 3.7 yards per carry with a long of 11 yards. He had seven red-zone rushing attempts but fell short of the end zone.
Antonio Gibson contributed 5 carries for 26 yards (all in the second half with two carries in the red zone), averaging 5.2 yards per carry with a long of 10 yards, while Maye added 24 rushing yards on 4 attempts. JaMycal Hasty got more usage early on, seeing five carries in the first half for 17 yards.
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 45 snaps, 70% snap share
- JaMycal Hasty: 12 snaps, 19% snap share
- Antonio Gibson: 7 snaps, 11% snap share
Stevenson had an uncharacteristic finish in Week 10. His streak as the Amari Cooper of RBs this season came to end. Nine games played this season. Five top-10 finishes (including three inside the top-5). Then three outside the top 40 overall.
Week 10 (MNF pending), he is RB25.
Still selling off the recent TD streak was correct. But an RB25 finish is hardly a dud based on a tough matchup on the road versus the Bears (although their run defense did not have Andrew Billings).
I think I’ve reached the point with Stevenson that all I care about is chasing his potential ceiling. So unless you are trading him for a sweet return (probably not) I think he’s now a buy candidate.
In the receiving corps, Mack Hollins was highly efficient, catching all four of his targets for 86 yards, including a long catch of 44 yards. Hollins ran a route on 85% of dropbacks with both Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman inactive.
Cooper (wrist) was inactive again for Sunday’s game against the Colts. And with that, it’s another week where his value will fall. Buy low. Coleman looks like he is going to miss more games than Cooper. The rookie has already been ruled out against the Chiefs in Week 11. Won’t see him until after the bye.
What do we do always do after Cooper busts or disappoints? Buy low, although that comes with the caveat you want to get on the Cooper ride at all.
In the rushing game, Travis Etienne led with 11 carries for 44 yards, including a long run of 18 yards and an average of 4 yards per carry. He scored, but it was overturned upon review. He was not involved as a receiver, with just one target.
Mac Jones contributed on the ground as well, rushing 5 times for 8 yards, including a rushing touchdown after Etienne didn’t punch it in. Tank Bigsby added 4 yards on two attempts before getting hurt in the first quarter. He returned but was not involved.
- Travis Etienne: 30 snaps, 68% snap share
- Tank Bigsby: 10 snaps, 23% snap share
- D’Ernest Johnson: 4 snaps, 9% snap share
Given the state of the dysfunctional Jaguars, you just have to sit tight with this backfield. Etienne might be a sneaky buy given the injury to Bigsby if anything.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Jaguars have the second-worst-ranked schedule for running backs. Although it does ease up in Weeks 14-15 against the Jets/Raiders plus Colts in Week 17 (reason to hold onto Etienne and Bigsby).
In the rushing attack, Audric Estime led the team with 14 carries for 53 yards, averaging 3.8 yards per carry with a long run of 10 yards. Marvin Mims Jr. added 17 yards on three carries, while Jaleel McLaughlin contributed 12 yards on two attempts, averaging 6 yards per carry. Mims seemed noticeably more involved with seven touches across the board and a red-zone reception. A lot of schemed touches for the second-year WR. He was the first Broncos player to have multiple carries. Also targeted on 57% of his routes.
McLaughlin started, but Estime led the backfield with four carries in the first half. The rookie also had another 17-yard gain wiped out on a penalty. The Notre Dame product had two red zone rushing attempts to Javonte Williams‘ one.
Javonte Williams ran a route on 26% of dropbacks but finished with just three touches. After an up-and-down season, the clock has struck midnight on Williams. It’s over folks.
- Audric Estime: 26 snaps, 45% snap share
- Javonte Williams: 17 snaps, 29% snap share
- Michael Burton: 10 snaps, 17% snap share
- Jaleel McLaughlin: 7 snaps, 12% snap share
McLaughlin ran a route on just 6% of dropbacks. As of right now, McLaughlin is a clear drop, with Williams’ taking over the pass-catching role “full-time.” IN shallower formats, both Williams/McLaughlin can be cut.
Because it’s FINALLY time for Estime. We have had signals that this change was coming, but finally we saw it happen in real time. Hopefully you were able to stash Estime ahead of the move, but if not he becomes the top waiver target this week.
That being said, per the FantasyPros Strength of Schedule tool, the Broncos have a bottom-five schedule for fantasy RBs for the rest of the season.
Diontae Johnson and Charlie Kolar each contributed with a reception, while Henry and Justice Hill had limited contributions in the passing game. Keaton Mitchell played two offensive snaps.
Johnson ran a route on 8% of dropbacks (less than last week). Earned a 6% target share, totaling 35 air yards and making up 14% of air yards.
Ideally, we would like to see DJ supplant Agholor, but that still might be another week away.
Had this not been a short week, maybe we would have seen more of Johnson. I can say confidently that given it’s Steelers-Ravens this week, I’d bet Johnson starts to get really ramped up. Still, you can’t start him confidently. And if you need the roster spot with byes, he is first on the chopping block. Still he is going to get dropped in the leagues and I’d happily scoop him up as a roster stash.
But if I can keep that upside on my roster I want to. Every game the Ravens play turns into a shootout. Eventually Johnson will benefit. Also, if there’s an injury…his value would skyrocket.
In the backfield, Trey Benson led the Cardinals’ rushing efforts with 10 carries for 62 yards, averaging an impressive 6.2 yards per carry, with a long of 14 yards.
James Conner had a balanced game, rushing 12 times for 33 yards and a touchdown, though his 2.8 YPC was more modest. Benson had four carries in the first half for 28 yards, with one reception. Conner finished with a 54% snap share to Benson’s 27%. The rookie tied a season-high 12 touches in Week 10 after seeing nine in Week 9. Again, a friendly reminder to make sure that Benson is not available in any league formats for the upside he could deliver if there’s a Conner injury. Conner is sixth in touches this season and has been banged up here and there. We know about his long injury history.
Christian Watson hauled in three of seven targets for 37 yards back in Week9, with a 12.3-yard average and a long catch of 19 yards. He had one red-zone target (didn’t score) but converted a two-point conversion.
Watson’s underlying usage was strong: 145 air yards, 38.98% air yards share, 18.92% target share. In the last two games, Watson leads the Packers in targets (13) and air yards (211) but he has just seven catches for 76 yards.
Players to Sell
In the rushing game, Alvin Kamara led with 17 carries for 55 yards, averaging 3.2 yards per carry, with his longest run at 11 yards. Derek Carr added 17 yards on 4 carries, averaging 4.3 yards per rush, while Taysom Hill contributed 14 yards on 4 carries with a 3.5-yard average. Jordan Mims added 10 yards on 2 attempts. Kamara followed with 5 receptions on 6 targets for 54 yards, averaging 10.8 yards per reception, with a long catch of 31 yards. Kamara ran a route on 63% of dropbacks, leading the team in routes run while boasting a 28% target share. He also had another long pass completion that he flat out dropped late in the game.
- Alvin Kamara: 43 snaps, 81% snap share
- Adam Prentice: 18 snaps, 34% snap share
- Jordan Mims: 8 snaps, 15% snap share
At this point with Kamara, it’s just a matter of how long he can keep this up. He leads the NFL with 218 touches. He’s on pace for 370 touches. He’s never had 300 in any season of his career. I’d like to get out earlier if I can.
On the ground, Aaron Jones led the rushing attack with 17 carries for 88 yards, averaging 5.2 yards per carry with a long of 13 yards. Cam Akers contributed with 13 carries for 38 yards, and Darnold himself added 28 rushing yards on seven attempts. Akers was working the first half (four carries for seven yards) before Jones got hurt in the second half. Jones did return in the fourth quarter.
Both Vikings RBs saw three red-zone carries, but neither was able to score.
- Aaron Jones: 44 snaps, 52% snap share
- Cam Akers: 26 snaps, 31% snap share
- CJ Ham: 19 snaps, 23% snap share
- Ty Chandler: 12 snaps, 14% snap share
Akers needs to be rostered everywhere given Jones’ injury history and small injuries he’s dealt with this season.
Minnesota plays @ TEN, @ CHI and vs ARI. Then it’s vs ATL, vs CHI, @ SEA and vs GB.
This is a GREAT schedule for the offense to stay on an upward trend. Hold your Vikings tight if you don’t see any great deals. However, given that Jones is an older RB who has already had a soft-body tissue injury among other this season, add/hold Akers. Also, entertain the idea of “selling high” on Jones based on the injury history and the fact that he is getting an overwhelming amount of touches. He’s pacing for over 300 touches.
CeeDee Lamb was targeted 10 times, but managed only 6 receptions for 21 yards, averaging 3.5 yards per catch. Led with a 34% target share and 55 air yards, equaling 28% of air yards. Two red-zone targets, one reception, zero touchdowns – considering he lost one in the sun. Woof. Lamb had seven targets in the first half. I entertained the idea of buying low on Lamb last week, but that was before we got more information regarding Dak Prescott as gone for the entire season. Dallas is spiraling right now and I’d don’t have hope this will get changed anytime soon. After being hesitant to bury Dallas completely last week, I now have my shovel ready to go. This team is 3-6 and could easily be 3-8 after games against the Texans at home and Commanders on the road before hosting the Giants on Thanksgiving.
The rest of the schedule is as follows: vs CIN, @ CAR, vs TB, @ PHI. Very juicy playoff schedule but if there’s no Prescott, Lamb is just a volume-dependent WR. Note that all his games with Rush back in 2022 weren’t great – and fantasy managers would be complaining less had he just caught the touchdown. Whether you have him or not, you need to check the price of his value in your league. If you can get him dirt cheap, take it. WR with a double-digit target with a favorable playoff schedule. But if you can get something solid in return (ideally you package Lamb so he’s not the focal point of the deal) I don’t think you’ll regret moving away from the Dallas Cowboys WR1. Again, I don’t know the price of Lamb in your league, but if I had to just flat-out buy/sell in a vacuum, I’d likely be happy just wiping my hands clean of any and all players from Dallas.
Tyjae Spears led the backfield, rushing 7 times for 47 yards (6.7 YPC), while Tony Pollard also had 9 carries for 44 yards.
Spears led the Titans with five carries in the first half, although Pollard was getting some medical attention throughout the contest.
- Tony Pollard: 29 snaps, 54% snap share
- Tyjae Spears: 25 snaps, 46% snap share
The Titans coaching staff talked about wanting to limit Pollard and that reared its ugly head in Week 10. Per the FantasyPros Strength of Schedule tool, the Titans have a bottom-five schedule for fantasy RBs for the rest of the season. Pollard is currently 8th in the NFL in touches.
On the ground, Gus Edwards led the Chargers with 10 carries for 55 yards, averaging a solid 5.5 yards per carry and managing a long run of 11 yards. Edwards stepped in and had four red-zone rushing attempts but scored zero rushing touchdowns.
J.K. Dobbins handled 15 carries for 50 yards, at 3.3 yards per carry, and his longest run went for 12 yards. Dobbins had two red-zone rushing attempts, zero rushing touchdowns, one reception, one and red-zone target.
Dobbins added 5 receiving yards on 3 catches. Edwards had six first half carries to Dobbins’ eight.
Hassan Haskins had two red-zone rushing attempts and scored the one rushing touchdown. Absolute killer for Dobbins’ managers for Haskins to get the vulture touchdown.
Kimani Vidal (coach’s decision) is inactive against the Titans on Sunday, Kris Rhim of ESPN.com reports.
- JK Dobbins: 39 snaps, 66% snap share
- Scott Matlock: 24 snaps, 41% snap share
- Gus Edwards: 15 snaps, 25% snap share
- Hassan Haskins: 5 snaps, 8% snap share
If Dobbins can stay healthy, he will be a force in the fantasy football playoffs against the Patriots. However, it’s tough sledding up to that point and adding Edwards into the fold as a red-zone headache is another layer of complexity.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, they also have the second-worst-ranked schedule for running backs. Might be time to sell high on Dobbins before the stretch run.
In the ground game, Jaylen Warren led the team with 14 carries for 66 yards, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, with a long of 12 yards. Najee Harris carried the ball 21 times for 53 yards and scored a touchdown, averaging 2.5 yards per carry with a long of 11 yards. Harris did get banged up in this contest but returned in the fourth quarter. Five red-zone rushing attempts, one rushing touchdown.
Cordarrelle Patterson contributed 14 yards on three carries, also averaging 4.7 yards per carry.
Warren had five carries in the first half to Harris’ eight. Warren also had three red-zone rushing attempts, but fumbled at the goal line. Not a ringing endorsement for him to see more red-zone touches. Warren didn’t touch the ball again after the fumble.
- Najee Harris: 37 snaps, 47% snap share
- Jaylen Warren: 35 snaps, 45% snap share
- Cordarrelle Patterson: 8 snaps, 10% snap share
I talked through several versions of the fantasy football forecast how slow Najee has been traditionally, so I’d like to think this is a sign of things to come. His last four games have been great. But the matchups against the Commanders, Raiders, Jets and Giants have been extremely soft spots. I have probably been too aggressive trying to be “early” on selling Harris, but the time is now.
I’d use another great game as the exact opportunity to sell high on Harris (11th in the NFL in touches). The schedule gets much tougher in the second half of the season with all six AFC North matchups. Warren is getting healthier and looking good, which could create problems for Harris in the second half of the season. Again, Warren led the Steelers in rushing with a 50% success rate in Week 10 compared to Harris’ 29% success rate and 2.5 yards per carry. The two Ravens matchup and KC in the playoffs is brutal for Harris.
In the rushing game, D’Andre Swift led with 16 carries for 59 yards, averaging 3.7 yards per carry with a long run of 9 yards. Two red-zone rushing attempts but zero TDs. I wanted to give the Bears one more week before selling them, but even they couldn’t produce against the Patriots. No team has a more difficult schedule this season than the Bears. They will play the Packers at home in Week 11. From Weeks 12-17 it’s MIN, @ DET, @ SF, @ MIN, DET and SEA. The Patriots defense was the last great matchup they have aside from Seattle in Week 17. Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Bears are tied for the No.32-ranked schedule for quarterbacks. Per the FantasyPros Strength of Schedule tool, the Bears also have a bottom-five schedule for fantasy RBs for the rest of the season. Sell Swift who probably has the most value left. The Bears OL has been decimated by injuries.
In the rushing department, Kareem Hunt led the Chiefs with 14 carries for 35 yards, averaging 2.5 yards per carry with a long run of 10 yards. Four red-zone rushing attempts, zero rushing touchdowns, three receptions and four red-zone targets. The receiving corps was led by Kareem Hunt, who caught seven of his 10 targets (25% target share) for 65 yards, averaging 9.3 yards per reception with a long gain of 26 yards. Ten targets for Kareem Hunt. Wild.
The usage for Hunt is virtually off-the-chart. And if he wasn’t past his prime, he’d be pushing for top 5 weekly RB status. Makes you wonder the type of season Isiah Pacheco was set up to have before his injury. Regardless expect more fantasy RB1 production from Hunt against Buffalo, especially in the passing game.
Still Hunt managers need to realize this might not end well come fantasy playoff time.
Pacheco’s eventual return creates some ambiguity about how useful Hunt will be in crunch time during the fantasy football playoffs. Don’t hold onto Hunt too tight before he loses value. The latest from head coach Andy Reid is that Pacheco is close to returning. Now I am very skeptical about how effective Pacheco will be coming off the broken leg injury, but I think his presence will definitely hurt Hunt.
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