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Players to Buy
Bijan Robinson led the ground game, carrying the ball 19 times for 86 yards, averaging 4.5 yards per carry, with a long run of 16 yards. Tyler Allgeier had 6 carries for 18 yards and managed to find the end zone once, while Ray-Ray McCloud contributed with one 7-yard rush.
Bijan out-carried Allgeier eight to two in the first half.
Robinson: 4 red zone rush attempts, 0 rush TDs, 1 red zone target, 0 receiving TDs. 75% snap share. Allgeier: 2 red zone rush attempts, 1 rush TD, 0 red zone targets. 25% snap share.
The remaining Falcons schedule @ NO, @ DEN, BYE, vs. LAC, @ MIN, @ LV vs. NYG, and @ WAS. Great playoff schedule as well.
On the ground, Kyren Williams led the rushing attack with 22 carries for 69 yards, averaging 3.1 yards per carry, with his longest run of the day being 9 yards. Stafford had one rush attempt that netted zero yards, while Blake Corum lost a yard on his only carry.
Off extended rest, Sean McVay had no chill with Kyren. 99% snap share. The Rams head coach can’t help himself.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Rams have the No. 1 most favorable schedule for RBs. At this point, Williams is probably a better buy than anything else. Might be the best time to buy NOW after he didn’t score a TD for the first time in his last 10 games.
On the ground, Kenneth Walker III led the rushing attack with 25 carries, gaining 83 yards at an average of 3.3 yards per carry, with a long run of 10 yards. Walker had four red zone rush attempts, 0 rush TDs, 1 red zone target. I’d buy Walker without much shine on him entering a bye week. He hasn’t scored in back-to-back games but has some favorable matchups in the second half of the season.
CeeDee Lamb was heavily targeted, with 8 receptions on 12 targets for 47 yards, showing his reliability despite shorter gains. 86 air yards, 29.66% air yards share, 25.53% target share. Lamb got banged up at the end of the game with a shoulder injury and has been labeled as week-to-week. Everything in my being wants to bury the Cowboys for the rest of the season. Lamb and Dak Prescott are expected to miss multiple weeks. This team is 3-5 and could easily be 3-8 after games against the Eagles at home, Texans at home and the Commanders on the road before hosting the Giants on Thanksgiving. But Jerry Jones knows that “abandoning a season” is bad for business. If his stars are healthy, they are going to play regardless of playoff positioning.
The rest of the schedule is as follows: vs CIN, @ CAR, vs TB, @ PHI. Very juicy playoff schedule. Unless you need wins right now, I’d be holding or buying Lamb at a discount.
Lamb was more than serviceable with Cooper Rush back in 2022 when Prescott was out Weeks 2-6. Averaged 13.4 half-PPR points per game with two top 8 finishes.
Brian Thomas Jr. had just two catches for 22 yards on four targets. He had 1 red zone target, 0 red zone touchdowns. He did convert a two-point conversion. 11 air yards, 4.12% air yards share, 13.33% target share. Thomas Jr. ran a route on 91% of dropbacks. Buy low on the talented rookie who likely played through a chest injury in this game.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. led the backfield with 11 carries for 52 yards, averaging 4.7 yards per carry with a long of 17 yards. Austin Ekeler scored the only rushing touchdown for the Commanders, picking up 42 yards on 11 carries (3.8 YPC).
Rodriguez Jr. had five red zone rush attempts, 0 rush TDs, 0 red zone targets. Ekeler had three red zone rush attempts, 1 rush TD, 1 red zone target, 0 receiving TDs.
Without Brian Robinson Jr.(hamstring) the Commanders morphed into a three-headed monster with all three RBs seeing at least 20 snaps. Ekeler led the way with a 47% snap share.
I think I’d use this opportunity to buy low on B-Rob. He’s the red-zone guy for the Commanders. The playoff schedule features the Saints, Eagles and Falcons, while the Commanders will be fresh off a Week 14 bye week
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI)
Marvin Harrison Jr. also contributed 34 yards on 2 catches, averaging 17 yards per catch. 91 air yards, 70.54% air yards share, 26.32% target share.
Another bad game from Harrison, who continues to have an up-and-down rookie season. He lost a fumble in this contest as well.
But this is exactly why it’s time to strike a deal. The Jets and a bye week are next meaning managers will want to move away after another disappointing game, But the post bye-week schedule is amazing.
Buy MHJ. After their bye week, the schedule is salivating for the playoff run: @ SEA, @ MIN, vs. SEA, vs. NE, @ CAR, @ LAR, and vs. SF.
Jaylen Waddle, despite only having two catches for -4 yards, managed to score a red-zone touchdown after suffering what looked like to be a serious injury. 19 air yards, 13.57% air yards share, 7.41% target share. Waddle still ran a route on 87% of dropbacks.
Although his final box score looks miserable because he was on the wrong side of a lateral on the final play of the game that resulted in a loss of 23 yards. WOOF. He should have finished with two catches for “19 yards.”
But as a Waddle manager, I can’t quit him with the Rams up next. The Rams defense that has allowed breakout games to Jameson Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr., Jauan Jennings and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. If you are going to sell Waddle, you need to give it at least one more week. Because next three games are Rams, Raiders and Patriots. Then Miami will play @ GB, vs. NYJ, @ HOU, vs. SF, and @ CLE.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. was the lead rusher, carrying the ball 16 times for 66 yards (4.1 YPC), with a longest rush of 10 yards. 3 red zone rush attempts, 0 rush TDs, 1 red zone target, 0 receiving TDs.
Tracy Jr. ran a route on 52% of dropbacks and lead the backfield with a 72% snap rate.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Giants have the No. 1 most favorable schedule for RBs.
Devin Singletary added 33 yards on 7 carries, averaging 4.7 yards per carry on a 28% snap share.
Josh Downs was the top target, catching 6 of his 9 targets for 60 yards, averaging 10 yards per reception, with a long gain of 16 yards and a notable 28 yards after the catch. 68 air yards, 32.54% air yards share, 33.33% target share and 45% target rate.
As he continues to be hyper-targeted by Joe Flacco, you want to be a buyer of Downs. The Colts won’t face the fierce Vikings defense every single week. But Downs will have Flacco as his QB every week rest of season.
Diontae Johnson ran a route on 17% of dropbacks after being traded from the Panthers. Would expect his role to rise at the expense of Nelson Agholor.
Baltimore will face Bengals, Steelers, Chargers, and Eagles before a bye week.
The Johnson trade had no impact has he barely played. So, he’s hold as you won’t get much of anything for him in trade.
That being said, his value perception probably shouldn’t change after this game, but there’s no doubt the market will be lower on him. I think I’d buy low.
Johnson’s best ability is commanding targets. He’s a winner heading to Baltimore given the QB upgrade. I think his presence might hurt Flowers in the long run given their overlapping skill sets. Also, it won’t help Rashod Bateman see more targets as this could eat into his playing time.
I don’t think it influences the tight ends too much given that both are TD-dependent. That being said, Johnson leads all WRs in targets inside the 10-yard line this season.
Last week I thought we might see an overreaction to Johnson to panic sell Ravens. I think that gets compounded with how irrational fantasy managers can be. However, you felt about DJ before last week shouldn’t change based on him not playing.
Amari Cooper (wrist) was inactive for Sunday’s game against the Dolphins. And with that, it’s another week where his value will fall. Buy low.
What do we do after Cooper busts or disappoints? Buy low, although that comes with the caveat you want to get on the Cooper ride at all.
Note that Buffalo plays the Colts next in the dome. Buffalo went noticeably more pass-heavy in Week 7 (+10% pass rate over expectation) compared to the -3% PROE Weeks 1-6. In Week 8, it was at +1% despite them controlling the game from the start. In Week 9, it was back up to +6%.
Buy pieces of this Bills passing game that is starting to open things up through the air. The remaining schedule: @ IND, vs KC, BYE, vs SF, @ LAR, @ DET, vs NE and vs NYJ.
T.J. Hockenson added to the offense with three receptions for 27 yards on four targets, averaging 9 yards per catch. He had a red-zone target but it was picked off. He also had seven additional receiving yards wiped away because of a penalty.
In his season debut, Hockenson ran a route on 57.5% of dropbacks accompanied by 27 air yards, 10.93% air yards share, 15.15% target share. Expect his role to increase. Buy. The single best matchup for tight ends is coming up for him next against the Jaguars.
Rookie Rome Odunze was the standout in the receiving game for the second straight week, catching 5 of his 7 targets for 104 yards, averaging 20.8 yards per reception with a long of 44 yards and 29 yards after the catch. He saw one red-zone target. 108 air yards, 30.42% air yards share, 19.44% target share. The rookie is breaking out before our eyes. And in the second half of the season, that means he could be a league winner.
For the Packers’ receiving corps, Jayden Reed had an explosive day, catching 5 of 6 targets for 113 yards, averaging 22.6 yards per reception, including a long of 41 yards and gaining 25 yards after the catch. 93 air yards, 25% air yards share, 16.22% target share.
Christian Watson hauled in three of seven targets for 37 yards, with a 12.3-yard average and a long catch of 19 yards. He had one red-zone target (didn’t score) but converted a two-point conversion.
Watson’s underlying usage was strong: 145 air yards, 38.98% air yards share, 18.92% target share. In the last two games, Watson leads the Packers in targets (13) and air yards (211) but he has just seven catches for 76 yards.
Tight end Mike Gesicki was the standout receiver, catching 5 of his 6 targets for 100 yards and two touchdowns, averaging an impressive 20 yards per catch with a long reception of 47 yards, generating 48 yards after the catch. 78 air yards, 37.32% air yards share, 16.22% target share. Gesicki ran a route on 58.5% of dropbacks.
I said to sell Gesicki “high” last week under the presumption that Tee Higgins would miss. He didn’t and Gesicki smashed again. Among a lackluster waiver wire group this week, Gesicki might be the best of the bunch. Even if Higgins plays on Thursday night, the matchup against the Ravens is one of the best for the Bengals TE.
Players to Sell
Tony Pollard led the Titans’ ground game, rushing 28 times for 128 yards (4.6 YPC) with a long run of 32 yards. He had an 8-yard touchdown called back on an offensive holding call. Pollard had seven red zone rush attempts and played 86% of the snaps despite missing practice all week.
Julius Chestnut contributed 5 carries for 22 yards, averaging 4.4 yards per carry. Tyjae Spears was inactive again.
The coaching staff has talked about wanting to limit Pollard, but Spears’ inactivity has put them in a tough position. That being said, if Spears returns with tough road matchups on the horizon, the time might be now to sell high on Pollard. Spears also might be a sneaky buy-low target/stash.
In the receiving game, Cooper Kupp was Stafford’s top target, catching 11 of his 14 targets for 104 yards, averaging 9.5 yards per reception with a long of 23 yards and an impressive 50 yards after the catch. 78 air yards, 18.40% air yards share, 33.33% target share.
Like I said last week, I still think Puka Nacua is the No. 1 WR in this offense. I would sell high on Kupp after he commanded 14 targets and 100-plus yards in a game that Nacua played barely a half in.
Rhamondre Stevenson had 10 carries for 16 yards and scored one touchdown on a whopping 74% snap share. Antonio Gibson had one carry.
Stevenson continues his streak as the Amari Cooper of RBs this season. Eight games played this season. Five top-10 finishes (including three inside the top-5). Then three outside the top 40 overall. Woof.
But with four TDs over his last two games, you better believe his stock has hit peak heights. Take advantage if you can move him for a sweet deal. But if not, just be ready for an upcoming inevitable dud game. On the road in Chicago might not be great. Again, Stevenson’s production last week was completely boosted by his two TDs because he had 16 rushing yards.
Running backs are usually accompanied by a higher floor, but that’s hardly been the case with Mondre. But I think the ceiling performances are worth holding onto Stevenson if you can’t get excited about a deal, given that he can deliver week-winning upside.
In the receiving game, Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a breakout performance, catching 7 of his 13 targets for an outstanding 180 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 25.7 yards per reception, including a long of 46 yards and gaining 50 yards after the catch. Smith-Njigba had 2 red zone targets and 1 red zone touchdown. 227 air yards, 65.04% air yards share, 38.24% target share. It was a career game for JSN, who I called a “sell-high” last week. Not great. I got impatient with JSN, presuming this breakout game would never come to fruition. And although I was wrong about selling JSN last week, I still think that is the sharp move to make. After all, selling a WR after 180 yards and two touchdowns against the Rams (reminds of Marvin Harrison Jr. back in Week 2) I think is the right process. Keep in mind that both DK Metcalf and Noah Fant were inactive. LA’s defense has been terrible all season. The playoff schedule isn’t ideal for Seattle. This is something to keep in mind when potentially trading Seahawks away as the season progresses.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Seahawks are tied for the No.31-ranked schedule for quarterbacks. Post Bye Week: @ SF, vs ARI, @ NYJ, @ ARI, vs GB, vs MIN and @ CHI. You will never get MORE for Smith-Njigba after this performance. Make trades accordingly.
Tight end Sam LaPorta added 28 yards on 2 catches out of 3 targets, averaging 14 yards per catch, with a long of 19 yards. 32 air yards, 39.02% air yards share, 15% target share. This was not the outcome LaPorta managers needed given the absence of Jameson Williams. Jamo will return off his suspension this week. Still, you should try to sell LaPorta if there are managers asleep at the wheel regarding the return of the third-year WR.
In the backfield, Javonte Williams led with 12 carries for 42 yards, averaging 3.5 yards per carry. Nine carries in the first half. Audric Estime made the most of his five carries, gaining 35 yards, including a 21-yard burst toward the end of the game. Jaleel McLaughlin also chipped in, although he only managed 10 yards on five carries (all in the first half).
- Williams: 3 red zone rush attempts, 0 rush TDs, 0 red zone targets
- Estime: 2 red zone rush attempts, 0 rush TDs, 0 red zone targets
- Burton: 2 red zone rush attempts, 0 rush TDs, 0 red zone targets
- McLaughlin: 1 red zone rush attempt, 0 rush TDs, 0 red zone targets
The broadcasters talked about how much Sean Payton loves Estime, and we got a report that he is expected to see an expanded workload moving forward. Payton has said this before – as a card carrying member of the Estime fan club I follow these things closely – so don’t jump to conclusions quite yet. Although if Williams gets traded, then this would free up the runway for Estime to take on Williams’ role with McLaughlin staying in his spot. A very tough draw for the Broncos run game next week, so the time would be now to get off the Williams ride with the best matchups in the rear-view window. He’s just been too inconsistent to trust for the long haul.
Estime can only be contained for so long before Payton flips the backfield entirely. But don’t go out of your way for any Broncos RB. Per the FantasyPros Strength of Schedule tool, the Broncos have a bottom-five schedule for fantasy RBs rest of season.
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