Fantasy Football Storylines: Tua Tagovailoa, C.J. Stroud, Bucky Irving (Week 13)

Week 13 is unusual because it includes Thanksgiving. The action starts with a tripleheader on Thursday. There’s also a Black Friday contest. Don’t forget to set your lineups amidst the holiday hustle and bustle. One of the most intriguing storylines for Week 13 is on Thursday night. A struggling club with Super Bowl aspirations and seeming fantasy firepower entering the season is in a precarious spot but has a bounce-back matchup. Finally, an NFC South battle might be a fun source of fantasy scoring.

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Fantasy Football Storylines

Can the Dolphins Maintain Their Momentum Against a Quality Opponent on Thanksgiving?

The Dolphins have found their footing since Tua Tagovailoa returned from the Injured Reserve (IR) in Week 8. On a related note, they’ve enjoyed some fantasy football success. Since Week 8, Tagovailoa is the QB14 in points per game (18.7), and in half point per reception (half PPR) formats, De’Von Achane is the RB3 in points per game (19.4), Tyreek Hill is tied for the WR31 (10.7), Jaylen Waddle is tied for the WR38 (9.9) and Jonnu Smith is the TE7 (12.3).

Obviously, gamers would like more from Hill and Waddle, even considering Waddle’s outburst in Week 12. Additionally, Tua was only a fringe QB1 during his heater and outside the top-12 quarterbacks in points per game. Still, Achane has been a stud, and Smith has ascended into mid-tier TE1 territory. Unfortunately, the story is the same as it was last season. The Dolphins have feasted on inferior opponents and stumbled against quality teams.

A trip to Lambeau Field to face the Packers on Thanksgiving will be a measuring stick for the Dolphins and an interesting data point for their fantasy outlook for the rest of the season. Achane and Smith are slam-dunk starters. However, Hill, Waddle and Tagovailoa are alternative-dependent options. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, since Week 8, Hill was the WR35 in expected half PPR points per game (12.6) and Waddle was tied for the WR69 (9.8). Even after accounting for Waddle’s explosive performance in Week 12, he’s only a flex option, and Hill is a WR3. Finally, the Packers are tied for the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, and Miami is a 3.0-point underdog with an implied total of 22.25 points, rendering Tagovailoa as a stellar superflex option but a below-average fantasy starter in 12-team single-QB leagues or shallower.

Can the Texans Turn Things Around in a Get-Right Matchup Against the Jaguars?

The Texans were a popular Super Bowl sleeper pick in the preseason after C.J. Stroud‘s excellent rookie campaign. They opened the year with five wins in their first six games, and Nico Collins was a world-beater before hurting his hamstring in Week 5.

However, they’ve hit the skids in a way reminiscent of the 2023 Jaguars. The Texans have lost four of their previous six games and exceeded 25 points only twice in that period. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik isn’t pushing the right buttons this year, and Stroud’s enduring a sophomore slump.

According to Pro Football Reference, among qualified quarterbacks this year, Stroud is 14th in passing yards per game (239.6), 13th in passing touchdowns (13), tied for the sixth-most interceptions (nine) and has the eighth-highest sack rate (8.97%). Furthermore, among 39 quarterbacks with at least 125 dropbacks this year, Stroud is Pro Football Focus’s (PFF’s) 18th-ranked passer, tied for 10th in big-time-throw percentage (4.7% BTT%) and tied for the 21st-highest turnover-worthy-play percentage (2.8 TWP%).

Sadly, Tank Dell hasn’t resembled the electrifying wideout he was before fracturing his fibula last year, albeit he’s had flashes in his second professional season. Stefon Diggs suffered a season-ending torn ACL in Week 8, removing one of their top wideouts from the equation.

Fortunately, Collins is a stud, and Joe Mixon is having a stellar season as a workhorse. So, it hasn’t all been doom and gloom for Houston’s fantasy options. Houston’s offense has mouthwatering matchups across the board this week. The Jaguars have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game (21.4) to quarterbacks, the third-most half PPR points per game (23.9) to running backs, the fourth-most half PPR points per game (30.1) to wide receivers and the 10th-most half PPR points per game (10.6) to tight ends this season. Nevertheless, Mixon and Collins are the only must-use players. Dell is a viable WR3 or flex, but Stroud is probably best kept on the bench or left in the free agent pool during a week without byes. It will be time to sound the alarms if the Texans don’t have an impressive showing against Jacksonville’s pathetic defense this week.

Do the Buccaneers and Panthers Have Sneaky Week 13 Shootout Potential?

The Buccaneers and Panthers fired on all cylinders after their Week 11 byes. Mike Evans was back from his hamstring injury, and the Buccaneers hung 30 points on the Giants in New Jersey. Adam Thielen was back for the Panthers, and Bryce Young had arguably his most impressive game as a pro, leading Carolina to 27 points at home against the visiting Chiefs.

According to Pro Football Reference, the Panthers are tied for the fourth-most yards allowed per play (5.8) this season, and the Buccaneers are tied for the seventh-most (5.7). Baker Mayfield should have a field day against a defense yielding the fourth-most fantasy points per game (20.0) to quarterbacks, and Young can build on his performance in Week 12 against a defense coughing up the most points per game (22.4) to quarterbacks this season.

The running backs also have mouthwatering matchups. The Panthers have yielded the most half PPR points per game (27.1) to running backs, and the Bucs have allowed the eighth-most (22.0). Bucky Irving and Chuba Hubbard are the running backs most likely to thrive. As I noted in the Fantasy Football Week 12 Takeaways: Surprises & Disappointments, Irving got a post-bye rookie bump against the Giants. Irving played 34 snaps, ran 20 routes and toted the rock 12 times versus 32, 11 and 12 for Rachaad White and five, one and four for Sean Tucker. Irving parlayed his enhanced role into a season-high 151 scrimmage yards, six receptions and one touchdown. Irving might settle in as an RB1 this week but will at least be a high-end to middle-tier RB2.

The game’s total is 46.5 points, and the Buccaneers are 6.0-point road favorites against the Panthers. However, I think these NFC South foes will exceed the game’s total in a fantasy-friendly affair. Cade Otton joins Mayfield, Evans, Irving, and Hubbard as excellent options from this game, but Xavier Legette, Thielen, David Moore and White could be deep-league options.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.