Predictably, the Giants pulled the plug on Daniel Jones during their Week 11 bye. However, it was somewhat surprising who they named their starting quarterback for Week 12. How will Big Blue look after the quarterback change? The Cardinals are also coming out of their bye and have a crucial NFC West battle on tap. Will a week of self-scouting result in meaningful changes? Finally, Sunday Night Football has a fun, star-studded contest. Which of the studs will shine the brightest?
Fantasy Football Storylines
Tommy Cutlets is Back
In the offseason, the Giants paid Drew Lock $5 million to be their backup quarterback. Yet, Tommy DeVito is getting the nod for a benched Danny Dimes. Tommy Cutlets didn’t have a brilliant rookie season as an undrafted free agent. Still, he used his legs and played better than anyone could have reasonably expected.
He attempted at least 20 passes in six of his starts and relief appearances last year. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), in those games, DeVito completed 66.0% of his 153 attempts for 1,033 yards (172.2 per game), eight touchdowns, three interceptions, four big-time throws, three turnover-worthy plays and a 78.0% adjusted completion percentage. DeVito also ran for 178 yards (29.7 per game) on 31 attempts in those six games.
Per RotoViz’s pace app, the G-Men had a 55% situation-neutral pass rate in the six contests DeVito chucked the pigskin 20 times. So, Brian Daboll didn’t handle him with kid’s gloves. Thus, hope isn’t lost for Malik Nabers, Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson. According to the data suite at FantasyPoints, Slayton had 7.4 expected half point per reception (half PPR) points per game, and Robinson had 7.3 in the six-game sample of DeVito attempting at least 20 passes.
Nabers is a superior receiver to both. Moreover, if DeVito is slightly better in his sophomore campaign, he could conceivably support two fantasy options in the passing attack. Additionally, Tyrone Tracy can remain a fantasy asset if the Giants are competitive. DeVito is instantly a superflex option against Tampa Bay’s pitiful pass defense.
Will the Cardinals Look Any Different Out of Their Week 11 Bye in an NFC West Battle in Week 12?
The Cardinals have a run-heavy offense. They had a 46% situation-neutral rush rate from Week 1 through Week 6. However, they dialed it up to 52% in their final four games before their bye.
James Conner benefited from Arizona’s play-calling tendencies and stellar run concepts. Conner is the RB16 in standard points per game (12.6), the RB17 in half PPR points per game (13.8) and tied for the RB19 in PPR points per game (15.0). The Cardinals have a tantalizing fantasy playoff schedule for Conner, making him an excellent starter with the upside to exceed his season-long scoring in the fantasy season’s most crucial time.
However, the Cardinals could also opt to give Trey Benson the post-bye rookie bump. Benson was effective in limited opportunities, especially just before the bye. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, from Week 7 through Week 10, Benson had 19 rush attempts for 109 yards (27.3 per game), one touchdown, a 5.3% explosive run percentage, 3.21 yards before contact per attempt, 2.53 yards after contact per attempt, 0.21 missed tackles forced per attempt, 31.6% stuff percentage and one touchdown. He’s a priority bench stash and could emerge as a flex in deep leagues if the Cardinals award him a few more opportunities per game.
Marvin Harrison is also a candidate for a post-bye rookie bump. MHJ was inconsistent before the bye. Still, he scored a touchdown in two of his last three games before the bye, tallying six, two and five receptions and 111, 34 and 54 receiving yards in those games. Harrison’s underlying data this season is quite impressive. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 110 wide receivers with at least 125 routes this year, Harrison is 10th in air-yard share (41.5%), 29th in target share (21.4%), tied for 29th in targets per route run (0.24), tied for 26th in first-read percentage (27.5%), tied for eighth in end zone targets (eight) and tied for 17th in expected half PPR points per route run (0.49). Harrison has untapped upside he could start turning into production the rest of the year.
Trey McBride is Arizona’s top passing-game weapon and one of the best tight ends in the NFL and fantasy football. Among 39 tight ends with at least 125 routes this year, McBride is first in route participation (83.8%), second in air-yard share (24.6%), tied for second in target share (24.0%), tied for third in targets per route run (0.26), first in first-read percentage (28.5%), tied for third in receptions (49), third in receiving yards per game (61.3) and tied for third in yards per route run (2.32). Unfortunately, he hasn’t had a receiving touchdown. McBride has one rushing touchdown and a fumble recovery touchdown. A bit more touchdown variance good fortune would go a long way for McBride’s fantasy value, and a slight uptick in pass rate could help him immensely, too. Regardless, he’s an upper-echelon TE1.
Which Fantasy Studs Will Shine in the NFC Battle Between the Eagles and Rams?
I expected fireworks from the Rams in primetime in Week 10, and they let me down. I’m ready to be hurt by them in primetime again. Los Angeles is a 3.0-point underdog against visiting Philadelphia, but the game’s total is a fantasy-friendly 50.5 points, tied for the highest total in Week 12.
Both teams are littered with top-shelf and middle-tier fantasy options, such as Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert from the Eagles and Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp from the Rams. It’s a true start-your-studs contest.
Hurts, Barkley and Brown are no-brainer fantasy starters from the Eagles. The Rams have struggled against wide receivers. Thus, Smith is in a bounce-back spot after tallying 14 and 29 receiving yards in the previous two games. Goedert is also in a favorable matchup and a starter for most fantasy teams.
The Rams also have no-brainer starters, namely Williams, Nacua and Kupp. Fortunately, they made the most of their rebound spot in Week 11 against the Patriots after a disappointing showing against the Dolphins on Monday Night Football in Week 10. LA’s offensive line is getting healthier, and their formula in Week 11 was exciting. Sean McVay and Stafford wisely trimmed the fat, wasting few opportunities on ancillary weapons. Instead, per the data suite at Fantasy Points, Nacua had a 37.6% air-yard share, 33.3% target share, 0.41 targets per route run and 36.0% first-read percentage, and Kupp had a 34.2% air-yard share, 37.0% target share, 0.48 targets per route run and 40.0% first-read percentage.
Philadelphia’s revamped young secondary is entering Week 12 in excellent form and will provide Nacua and Kupp with a challenge this week. Still, Nacua and Kupp are nightmare matchups for Philadelphia’s secondary, and Stafford can succeed if his healthier offensive line provides him with time.
Stafford also isn’t a stranger to facing a Vic Fangio-coached defense. Fangio has the Eagles humming on defense, but Stafford had success against Fangio’s defenses in Chicago from 2015 through 2018. In eight games against Fangio in those four years, Stafford completed 66.9% of his passes and averaged 273.1 passing yards per game with 14 touchdowns and nine interceptions.
Furthermore, Stafford has excelled with Kupp and Nacua healthy this season. In the five games when Kupp and Nacua started this year, Stafford averaged 296.4 passing yards per game and threw 11 touchdowns and four interceptions. Even though the Eagles have been a brutal matchup for quarterbacks this year, Stafford is a viable starting quarterback in 12-team leagues or larger this week.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
