FantasyPros publishes approximately 7.7 million pieces of weekly fantasy content to help you win your league, and eventually take home fantasy gold. It can be difficult to read such a vast amount of content, which is why we’ve rounded up a few of the most actionable, can’t-miss stat nuggets you absolutely need to know each week to aid with fantasy football start sit decisions.
We’ve broken down this weekly TL;DR (Too Long; Didn’t Read) article by each of the four main skill positions in fantasy football (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end), with at least two stats per position. (There’s a bonus IDP stat this week.) Click on each author’s byline to read the entire article. Good luck this week.
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TL;DR Fantasy Football Week 9
Must-Know Quarterback Fantasy Football Stats
The Chargers are a bottom-half NFL team in EPA/play (-0.07), but they have improved in throwing the football over the past four games. After Week 5, Los Angeles ranked 23rd in EPA/pass (-0.14) but now ranks 16th (-0.02) after beating the Saints last week.
Justin Herbert has turned in back-to-back games that opened things up for this offense. He averaged nearly nine yards per attempt in Week 7 and Week 8 with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. The Chargers are 24th in pass rate ( 51.4%), but things look to be ramping up with Herbert’s top three games in attempts (34, 39, 32) coming in the last three weeks. Herbert has thrown only one interception and the Chargers’ offense has turned the ball over only four times. If they continue to take care of the football alongside these throwing trends, an increase in production is coming for this team.
In his first game back under center, Tua Tagovailoa was the QB22 in fantasy and that was with a wonderful matchup. This definitely isn’t that. We’ve already seen this play out. In Week 2, before Tagovailoa left the game with a concussion, he had three interceptions with a 56.7 passer rating and 5.8 yards per attempt.
Tagovailoa is a must-sit this week. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he is 19th in yards per attempt, 22nd in passer rating and completion percentage over expected (CPOE) and 27th in fantasy points per dropback. He faces a Buffalo secondary that has given up the fifth-fewest yards per attempt, the ninth-lowest passer rating and the 13th-lowest success rate per dropback.
Must-Know Running Back Fantasy Football Stats
Travis Etienne Jr. has missed the past two games with a hamstring injury. However, head coach Doug Pederson told the media on Wednesday that he feels good about Etienne playing on Sunday against the Eagles. Therefore, Bigsby’s time as the starting running back could be coming to an end. More importantly, the second-year pro hasn’t been very productive this year. He took advantage of two awful run defenses, totaling 219 rushing yards, four touchdowns, and 49.2 half-point PPR fantasy points against the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots.
While he scored 23.8 or more fantasy points in both matchups, Bigsby has averaged 4.9 fantasy points per game in the other six contests this season. Last week, he had 9.6 fantasy points against the Green Bay Packers with Etienne out of the lineup. Unfortunately, Bigsby is a touchdown-or-bust running back, scoring single-digit fantasy points in every game where he doesn’t find the end zone. Meanwhile, the Eagles have held running backs to the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game (16.8) and the second-fewest rushing touchdowns (two) this season.
Chuba Hubbard is the RB19 in fantasy points per game, averaging 17.8 touches and 87.6 total yards. He ranks 10th in snap share, 15th in opportunity share and 17th in red-zone touches. Among 43 qualifying backs, he is 16th in explosive run rate and 26th in yards after contact per attempt. Hubbard should have a solid day against a Saints run defense that has allowed the 12th-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-most rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest yards per carry to zone runs and the eighth-highest success rate to zone runs (Hubbard: 66.1% zone).
D’Andre Swift is maddeningly inconsistent, and I was among the pundits throwing dirt on his fantasy football and DFS grave earlier this season. He’s proven me wrong by going on a heater. Swift has had at least 119 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in four straight games.
Among 44 running backs with at least 30 rush attempts since Week 4, Swift is ninth in yards per carry (5.36), ninth in yards before contact per attempt (2.79), 19th in yards after contact per attempt (2.57), sixth in explosive run percentage (8.3%), fifth in rushing yards per game (96.5) and tied for fourth in rushing touchdowns (four).
During that stretch, he also averaged 3.25 receptions per game and 36.75 receiving yards per game. Swift has a desirable matchup this week. The Cardinals have allowed the seventh-most DraftKings and the fifth-most FanDuel points per game to running backs this year.
Must-Know Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Stats
The Ravens rank second in the league with 37.4 points per game given up to opposing receivers. They boast the perfect combination of an elite offense (that just got even better with the addition of Diontae Johnson) and a truly terrible secondary. After all, this is a team that just gave up at least 79 yards to three separate receivers on the Browns.
For Week 9, Courtland Sutton is the obvious pick to take advantage of this matchup. He has been up and down this season, but the veteran receiver still easily leads the Broncos with a 22% target share and a 39% air yards share. In a game where Bo Nix will be dropping back early and often, Sutton is someone you can trust in your lineups.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI)
I will hold an accountability check in here and say I absolutely called it wrong on Marvin Harrison Jr. last week. Maybe he read the article and decided to teach me a lesson for doubting him. Who knows? However, while Harrison had the second-best outing of his career on Sunday, it does not mean he will replicate it this week.
According to Fantasy Points and their average separation score, Harrison has a score of 0.093 on 150 routes against zone coverage this year. Of receivers who have run a minimum of 50 routes against zone coverage, that score ranks 44th. The reason for focusing on zone is that the Chicago Bears cover in zone almost 75% of the time, which is the sixth-most in the NFL so far this season.
Then you add to the fact that Jaylon Johnson is tied for the fifth-fewest fantasy points allowed per route run against him. He has also seen the eighth-fewest percentage of targets on routes run against him among cornerbacks in the NFL. Offensive coordinators and play-callers don’t want to pass on Johnson.
This is a stay-away-from matchup. However, if fantasy managers cannot steer clear, then at the very least, lower your expectations this week with your fantasy start decisions.
Seeing 13 targets and 191 air yards, Malik Nabers is a thing of beauty and certainly what we want out of him for our fantasy football rosters. What is becoming concerning, however, is that there are too many weeks where Daniel Jones can not convert that massive volume into catchable targets for Nabers. Yes, there is an issue with double teams as well (I mean, who else are defensive backs against the Giants going to cover?), but Jones needs to deliver better balls to Nabers. According to Player Profiler, Nabers has a 102.6 quarterback rating on the targets thrown to him this year, which is 34th in the NFL.
Nabers is second to only Terry McLaurin in total air yards this season, and that is with Nabers missing two full games with a concussion. However, he is only 15th among wide receivers with 498 receiving yards. Traditionally, this much volume and usage (he has a 27.3% target share) will result in strong fantasy numbers, especially in PPR formats. The gauntlet of games against the Bengals, Eagles and Steelers is now over, and the schedule is about to really open up. His next four contests are against the Commanders, Panthers, Buccaneers and Cowboys. Those are all good matchups for wide receivers and might propel Nabers to the fantasy finishes we have been hoping for.
Must-Know Tight End Fantasy Football Stats
Zach Ertz finished Sunday with seven catches for 77 yards on 11 targets. Those 11 looks represented a season-high. Ertz now has 29 targets in the last four games. In Week 8, Ertz was tied for second among tight ends in target share (28.9%), he was eighth in route participation (73.9%) and 10th in yards per route run among tight ends with at least four targets. Ertz’s next two games are against low-scoring opponents (the Giants and Steelers), but the Eagles and Cowboys come calling after that in games that may feature a lot of offense.
With four touchdowns in three games, Mark Andrews is now the TE11 in total PPR points. The only tight ends with more touchdowns than him are George Kittle and Tucker Kraft. Andrews peaked at a season-high 75% snap share in Week 8. While this has been encouraging, it also points to his fragility. Andrews has frequently been taken off the field in 12 personnel (2-TE sets), which the Ravens like to use, with Charlie Kolar and Isaiah Likely mixing in for those plays.
The Ravens also traded for Diontae Johnson this week, which might indicate a willingness to move to more 11 personnel (3-WR looks). They currently rank 32nd in the league in these formations (29% of their plays). It’s more likely Johnson is a role player and Andrews continues to bounce back but the matchup is far from ideal this week with the Broncos allowing the 13th-fewest tight end fantasy points. Only Darnell Washington and Brock Bowers have scored touchdowns against them. Only two tight ends (Bowers and Cade Otton) have recorded more than 40 receiving yards in games against the Broncos. Andrews might not be as dead as some proclaimed him early on in the season, but making him an every-week auto-start still might be a touch too far.
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