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We’ve broken down this weekly TL;DR (Too Long; Didn’t Read) article by each of the four main skill positions in fantasy football (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end), with at least two stats per position. (There’s a bonus IDP stat this week.) Click on each author’s byline to read the entire article. Good luck this week.
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TL;DR Fantasy Football Week 12
Must-Know Quarterback Fantasy Football Stats
Geno Smith continues his volume-fueled fantasy assault as the QB12 in fantasy points per game. Smith is third in passing attempts and first in passing yards per game. His per-dropback metrics aren’t nearly as kind. Among 39 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 16th in yards per attempt, 25th in passer rating and 24th in fantasy points per dropback.
Smith faces what has become a tough Arizona pass defense. Since Week 6, Arizona has kept quarterbacks in check with the fifth-lowest yards per attempt, the sixth-lowest completion percentage over expected (CPOE) and the sixth-fewest passing touchdowns allowed. Smith will still sit somewhere around the low-end QB1 territory with his extreme passing volume but don’t expect an otherworldly or efficient performance.
This is a perfect storm of talent meets opportunity. Justin Herbert has been cooking over the last month, leading the league with an absurd 92.0 Pro Football Focus (PFF) passing grade since Week 7. The Chargers have also leaned into the passing game, with a pass rate at least 5% over expected in five of their last six games. That’s a huge change from early in the year when they were one of the most run-happy offenses in the league.
Now, they welcome the Ravens, who have been the softest team defending the pass in the entire NFL. Although they rank just third-highest in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, Baltimore easily leads the league with 304 passing yards per game given up — no other team is at even 290. They also lead the league by a mile in dropback expected points allowed (EPA) at 0.318. This is a smash spot for Herbert. He is a must-start option.
Must-Know Running Back Fantasy Football Stats
Tennessee’s passing attack has looked significantly better since Will Levis returned from a shoulder injury. Unfortunately, their rushing offense has struggled lately. Tony Pollard averaged 4.4 yards per rushing attempt and 13.2 half-PPR fantasy points per game over the first nine weeks, scoring 12.7+ in all but two contests. By comparison, the veteran has averaged 3.3 yards per rushing attempt and 6.1 fantasy points per game over the past two matchups. More importantly, his workload has significantly declined, totaling 18 rushing attempts over the past two weeks.
By comparison, Pollard averaged 17.8 rushing attempts per game over the first nine weeks, totaling 16+ in all but one contest. Meanwhile, the Texans have held running backs to 16.2 fantasy points per game, the sixth-fewest in the NFL. They have given up 10.5 or fewer fantasy points to running backs in two of their past three matchups despite facing Breece Hall and the Detroit Lions backfield in those contests. Houston has surrendered 10.8 or fewer fantasy points to running backs in over a third of their games.
The Rams heavily relied upon Kyren Williams for much of the season until Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned from their respective injuries. Since they returned, it’s all gone quiet for Williams. Over the last three games, per Fantasy Points Data, the Rams have rushed the ball on 28.6% of their plays inside the red zone, the joint-lowest mark in the league. Inside the 10-yard line, they have the third-lowest number (23.1%).
The Rams are also passing in neutral game scripts at the 11th-highest rate and leaning into their wide receivers, resulting in Williams having zero touchdowns in three consecutive games. This marks the first time in the last two years Williams has gone two or more straight games without a touchdown of any kind. The Eagles allow the fifth-fewest RB fantasy points, giving up two RB touchdowns since Week 4, with no running back finishing higher than RB12 against them and only four finishing as top-20 options all year.
D’Andre Swift (RB – CHI) & Roschon Johnson (RB – CHI)
With Khalil Herbert traded to the Bengals, that left the Bears with a two-headed committee in the backfield between D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson. A backfield once previously led by Swift may be shifting a bit as his 57% snap share was his second-lowest of the season while Johnson’s 42% share was his first game over 40%. Most notable, though, was the goal-line usage as Johnson got three of the four touches inside the 10-yard line.
Bers head coach Matt Eberflus also said after the game, “I think the distribution in the run game was good,” when referencing the workload distribution between these two backs. Johnson got 11 opportunities to Swift’s 16 and that split feels like it’ll be representative going forward. Most concerning for Swift was that his route run rate dipped below 40% for the second time in the last four games, something that didn’t happen in the first six games. With Thomas Brown calling plays for the first time this week, I consider all this usage to have a lot of signal.
Must-Know Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Stats
I expect Justin Herbert to torch the Ravens’ secondary this week. He’ll have to throw the ball to someone. I also considered Ladd McConkey for this spot, but let’s dig a little deeper, as McConkey is a top-20 wide receiver in FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR) for Week 12. Quentin Johnston, whom many wrote off as a bust after an admittedly awful rookie year, has taken a huge step forward as a sophomore.
Albeit thanks in part to a few broken plays, he ranks as the WR33 in points per game — that’s not bad at all. Meanwhile, the Ravens are giving up 189.5 yards, 1.45 touchdowns and 36 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers. All three of those numbers lead the league. Johnston is also the Chargers’ preferred deep threat, which works well as the Ravens have allowed the third-most passing plays of over 20 yards. If you’re looking for a Flex play with all the byes this week, Johnston is a very solid option.
Detroit enters Week 12 sixth in passing yardage per game (242.5). Amon-Ra St. Brown is a target machine (78) leading the team’s runner-up in the category, Jameson Williams, by 37 total targets. St. Brown has ascended to WR2 status with 685 receiving yards and nine scores. He should not be traded by fantasy managers interested in winning in 2024. St. Brown has scored in eight consecutive games and is pacing to shatter his career high in reception rate hauling in 84.4% of his targets this season.
Courtland Sutton comes into Week 12 as the WR14 in fantasy scoring. He has double-digit returns in five of his last six games. He is also 12th in terms of target share, managing 24.4% of the total targets from Bo Nix.
Sutton also has a great matchup against Decemerion Richardson of the Las Vegas Raiders. According to Fantasy Points, Richardson is allowing 0.38 fantasy points per route run against this season. This is the sixth-most of all corners in the NFL entering Week 12.
Sutton is managing 0.39 fantasy points per route run. According to Fantasy Points, Sutton has averaged 30 routes a game over the past four weeks. If the averages pan out, that is 11.7 fantasy points before you add any reception bonuses and touchdowns. With these on top, Sutton should finish as a high-end WR2 this week, with WR1 upside if he finds paydirt.
Must-Know Tight End Fantasy Football Stats
Dallas Godert has remained a steady option despite Philly’s run-heavy offense. He is the TE7 in fantasy points per game and has at least 10.5 PPR points in four of his last five games. Goedert has a 17.9% target share, has averaged 55.3 receiving yards per game, has a 2.32 yards per route run (YPRR) rate and a 21.1% first-read share. He should be a solid TE1 again this week against a Rams secondary that has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Brock Bowers set several rookie tight end records on Sunday, including 16 targets, 13 receptions and 126 receiving yards. He scored a touchdown and remained the one consistent, reliable part of the Las Vegas Raiders offense. But what he achieved compared to what he was given to work with on Sunday is nothing less than some kind of football voodoo magic that only Bowers can control.
His average depth of target (aDOT) on his 16 targets was just 4.0 yards. No other player in the top 50 for the week had an aDOT lower than 6.5 yards. He turned 64 air yards (43rd among receivers in Week 11) into 126 receiving yards (fifth-most among all pass-catchers last week). Bowers had a 42% target share and 43% air yards share, but his most impressive number of the week was his 78 yards after the catch. On the season, he now has 120 more yards after the catch than any other tight end in football.
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