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We’ve broken down this weekly TL;DR (Too Long; Didn’t Read) article by each of the four main skill positions in fantasy football (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end), with at least two stats per position. Click on each author’s byline to read the entire article. Good luck this week.
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TL;DR Fantasy Football Week 11
Must-Know Quarterback Fantasy Football Stats
Fantasy players had no interest in starting Justin Herbert in Superflex leagues earlier this season. The Chargers have been one of the top run-heavy offenses in the NFL, with a lack of weapons. The superstar quarterback averaged 22.8 pass attempts and 10.4 fantasy points per game before the team’s Week 5 bye, totaling 11.2 or fewer fantasy points in every contest. However, Los Angeles has become a more balanced offense lately. Herbert has averaged 30 pass attempts and 18.4 fantasy points per game since the team’s bye.
More importantly, the superstar has averaged 21.1 fantasy points per game over the past three weeks, totaling 19.5+ points in every contest. Furthermore, Herbert is using his legs, totaling 32+ rushing yards in two of the past three games. Meanwhile, the Bengals’ pass defense has struggled, giving up 230 passing yards, 1.7 touchdowns and 20.4 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. They have surrendered two or more passing touchdowns in 55.6% of their games since Week 1, allowing four scores twice, including last week.
The Cardinals extended their win streak on Sunday by dismantling the Jets 31-6. Arizona leads the NFC West and enters week 11, tied for the eighth-best EPA/play (0.03) in the league.
Arizona runs and throws the football at nearly the same rate. Kyler Murray is being asked to throw on 50.5% of this team’s plays, and its’ EPA/pass (0.04) is in the top 10 in the NFL. Murray is pacing for a career-high in completion percentage (69.2%) and carries a four-to-one touchdown to interception ratio (12/3).
While the throwing touchdown total does not jump out, Murray has added four scores on the ground along with 371 rushing yards. He is the fantasy QB7 and will have an opportunity to improve his position with the protection he is receiving. The Cardinals have allowed the fourth fewest sacks (15) in the league this season, boosting Murray’s adjusted net yards per attempt to eighth overall (7.13).
Must-Know Running Back Fantasy Football Stats
Unfortunately, a costly overtime fumble ruined what was otherwise another outstanding performance from Tyrone Tracy Jr. He was the lone bright spot for the Giants’ offense, surpassing 100 rushing yards and scoring a touchdown in the team’s devastating loss to the Panthers. Tracy has scored an average of 14.8 half-PPR fantasy points over the past three weeks and should now be considered a mainstay in all fantasy football lineups.
The Giants have made a clear commitment to Tracy as the team’s starting running back. Despite investing a fairly lucrative three-year, $16.5 million contract in Devin Singletary over the offseason, Brian Daboll quickly grew impatient with the veteran’s inefficiencies. He instead opted for the younger, more explosive back in Tracy and has since reaped the benefits of consistent rushing production. Tracy has seen a minimum of 21 carries in four of the past five games.
The rookie’s efficiency metrics would suggest he can make the most of this heavy workload. According to PFF, he ranks 14th in yards after contact per carry, 12th in breakaway runs and sixth in yards per carry among backs with at least 60 attempts. It’s also important to note Tracy was formerly a wide receiver during his collegiate days. Therefore, it would not be surprising if the Giants made use of this pass-catching prowess. I’d expect a slight uptick in his receiving output in the coming weeks as well.
We’ve seen rookie running backs become incredible assets in the second half of their inaugural season time and time again. Based on his intriguing blend of talent and volume, Tracy may very well be headed toward fantasy superstardom. He should be penciled in as a rock-solid RB2 for the foreseeable future.
It can’t be overstated how tough of a matchup the Chiefs are for opposing running backs. They allow just 12 points per game to the position, while no other team is below even 14. Thanks to having Patrick Mahomes on the other side, they allow the fewest carries per game at just 16.6, and they allow the fewest yards per carry at 3.17. For those not doing the math at home, that means Kansas City allows just 52.6 yards per game to opposing backs.
The Chiefs haven’t allowed a single individual running back to crack 13 half-PPR points. Only three backs (Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, Rachaad White) have even reached double digits against them… and all three of them relied on a rushing score to get there. James Cook has performed like a borderline RB1 so far this season, so he isn’t a must-bench. But if you have other options, I would strongly consider leaving him out of your lineup this week.
Last week, Audric Estime led the way for the Denver rushing attack, playing 45% of the snaps with 14 carries and 53 rushing yards. He didn’t see a target in the passing game. Estime handled two of the three backfield red-zone rushing attempts last week. He posted a forgettable 2.21 yards after contact per attempt and didn’t force a missed tackle, but it’s a small sample.
Overall this season, his 3.07 yards after contact per attempt has been impressive (29 carries). Atlanta is a perfect matchup for Estime to pop off with a big game if Denver can keep the score close because I do worry about Estime’s ability to get game scripted out. Atlanta has allowed the 11th-highest explosive run rate, the 12th-most rushing yards per game and the sixth-highest success rate to gap runs (Estime – 55.2% gap).
Must-Know Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Stats
The Jets’ season has been spiraling the drain for several weeks and the shellacking Arizona handed them likely finished their playoff hopes, but there are jobs on the line and it’s too early to sit players. A soft Indianapolis defense might be the feel-good boost the Jets need right now. Despite all the turmoil, Garrett Wilson is the WR3 in PPR points and leads all wide receivers in total targets with 99, in part thanks to the Jets’ ranking fourth in pass rate over expected (PROE).
The addition of Davante Adams has done little to hurt Wilson’s output with him averaging a 26% target share over the last four games. The Colts’ pass defense has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards and the 12th-most fantasy points with seven different receivers scoring at least 16 points against them. The Jets might be finished, but Wilson is far from it.
Ladd McConkey comes into Week 11 as the WR19 in fantasy football. However, this week he is likely to see a dip in production. On the surface, many will tout this matchup as a good one. The Cincinnati Bengals are 18th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
However, the coverage from Mike Hilton means McConkey is not likely to be favored this week. According to Fantasy Points, Hilton is only allowing 0.11 fantasy points per route run on him. This is the second-lowest of any cornerback in the NFL. He is also only being targeted on 9% of routes run against him, which is the third-lowest of any cornerback this season.
It appears that while the Chargers have upped their dropback rate and passing attempts rate in recent weeks, and the game script might be there for them to increase it again this week, fantasy managers should err on the side of caution this week. McConkey will be a low-end WR3/WR4 play this week. If fantasy managers have a better fantasy start sit option, then they should explore it.
At the beginning of the season if I asked you to tell me who the top five players in overall air yards would be after 10 weeks, how many guesses would it have taken for you to say Darnell Mooney‘s name? Two hundred? Four hundred? After 167 more in Week 10, Mooney is now fifth in the entire NFL with 954 air yards. With a 24% target share and a 38% air yards share on the season, Mooney might be the best late-round wide receiver taken in 2024 fantasy football drafts.
After Drake London has been banged up the last two weeks (and still played), Mooney has stepped right into the No. 1 WR role. His 40% air yards share number this past week is an absolute elite rate. Combine that with his 10 targets and Mooney has a path to a starting wide receiver role in our lineups every week for the rest of the year. He and Drake London are now both in the top six in overall targets this year. Atlanta’s pass-friendly offense is putting them in a position to smash each week.
Must-Know Tight End Fantasy Football Stats
Evan Engram is the TE22 for the year, averaging eight half-PPR fantasy points per game. The veteran tight end has struggled despite averaging 7.6 targets per game since returning from a hamstring injury in Week 6, averaging 9.4 fantasy points per contest. He has scored single-digit fantasy points in three of the past four weeks. Unfortunately, Engram will be without Trevor Lawrence for the second consecutive game because of a shoulder injury. Given the Jaguars’ record, the team might shut down the franchise quarterback for the rest of the season.
More importantly, Engram couldn’t ask for a worse fantasy matchup on Sunday. The Lions’ defense has played well this year, bending but not breaking. They have surrendered 19 points per game, the eighth-fewest in the league. Detroit has shut down tight ends, giving up 5.7 fantasy points per game, the second-fewest in the NFL. The Lions have allowed tight ends to score only one touchdown, coming in Week 4. Furthermore, tight ends have scored 8.8 or fewer fantasy points against Detroit in all but one game.
T.J. Hockenson has been back for two games now and is looking like his old self. This past week, he turned his nine targets (tied for a team-high) into eight receptions for 72 yards, 24 of those coming after the catch. Additionally, his route participation rose from 58% in Week 9 to 67% in Week 10. Though the Vikings couldn’t find the end zone, Hockenson did get two of the team’s six red-zone targets this past Sunday.
Since Hockenson primarily works in the intermediate part of the field while Jordan Addison is the team’s main deep threat, I could see Hockenson staying as the team’s number two target from a pure volume standpoint. He’ll be a top-eight tight end the rest of the way.
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