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We’ve broken down this weekly TL;DR (Too Long; Didn’t Read) article by each of the four main skill positions in fantasy football (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end), with at least two stats per position. Click on each author’s byline to read the entire article. Good luck this week.
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TL;DR Fantasy Football Week 13
Must-Know Quarterback Fantasy Football Stats
It feels as if people are starting to lose confidence in Sam Darnold, and I’m not sure why. He’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in 8-of-11 starts this season, including four of the last five. Darnold ranks fifth in yards per attempt with 8.3 behind only Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy and Jalen Hurts. Darnold is the QB10 in fantasy points per game this season, tied with Patrick Mahomes. And now that T.J. Hockenson is healthy again, Darnold has a pretty awesome group of pass-catchers, including Hockenson, Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Darnold is a playable mid-range QB2 in a home matchup against the Cardinals.
The Buccaneers are a top-five scoring (28.1) team despite playing without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans from Weeks 8 through 11. Evans returned to the lineup for their 30-7 rout of the Giants on Sunday.
Tampa Bay has thrown the ball well this season. The Bucs are fourth in EPA/pass (0.1) on a pass rate of 58.3%. Baker Mayfield is a top-five fantasy quarterback and is currently third at the position in touchdown throws (24) and completion percentage (71.4%).
With the Bucs allowing quarterback pressure at the lowest rate (24.6%) in the league, Mayfield has logged the best passer rating of his career (104.1). This is impressive considering the injuries this team has seen on the outside. Mayfield has thrown six touchdowns over the last four games and will have a chance to build on his fantasy position facing the Panthers and Raiders over the next two weeks.
Must-Know Running Back Fantasy Football Stats
Gus Edwards first started to go off the rails around this time last year, averaging 3.4 yards per carry and 1.0 missed tackles forced per game after averaging 4.6 yards per carry and 2.0 missed tackles over the first 11 weeks. Edwards also saw his big run rate drop from 5.6% to 1.3% for the last six weeks of the season. Edwards is averaging 3.3 yards per carry this year with a total of four missed tackles forced and zero big runs, with his nine carries for 11 yards against the Ravens salvaged by a touchdown. Otherwise, it’s been a miserable year for Edwards.
Thirteen of Edwards’ 63 rush attempts have gone for fewer than zero yards before contact, with 38 of the carries resulting in fewer than one yard before contact. Simply put, Edwards isn’t finding gaps or making players miss. With J.K. Dobbins missing at least one game with his MCL Sprain, the clamor to start his replacement is natural, but Edwards might be fool’s gold against a Falcons defense allowing the 10th0fewest running back fantasy points and is middle of the pack in most run defense metrics. It feels far more likely the Chargers will have to lean into the pass and get by with a committee approach at running back.
Tony Pollard stepped up in the continued absence of Tyjae Spears (concussion) by handling the workload in the Titans’ upset win over the Houston Texans in Week 12. Pollard had 24 rush attempts for 119 yards and a touchdown. Pollard has surpassed 85 rushing yards in five of his last eight games. He has totaled at least 20 carries in three of his previous five games.
Pollard has a juicy matchup this week versus the 29th-ranked run defense of the Washington Commanders. The Commanders have allowed at least 90 scrimmage yards to a running back in four of their last five games. Fantasy managers will enjoy a similar outing to the previous week and ride Pollard’s smash production to a Week 13 win.
Kenneth Walker has scored eight total touchdowns but is the RB17. With such little volume, it will be hard for Walker to climb into the top 10 at his position this season. Seattle is 28th in total running plays (249) and Walker ranks 36th among qualified players in yards per carry (3.8).
Must-Know Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Stats
In back-to-back weeks, Nico Collins has had large touchdown plays called back for ticky-tacky penalties that the rule of cool would have let slide. Collins’ return to the starting lineup has been slow with him seeing 46% of snaps in Week 11 before a 78% snap share in Week 12.
It feels like Collins is ready to be fully unleashed against a weak Jacksonville squad that ranks 32nd in DVOA against the pass and allows the third-most wide receiver fantasy points. In Week 4, when these teams met, Collins finished with 33.1 PPR points and was the WR1 overall that week. Now, Collins won’t even have to contend with Stefon Diggs for targets and should have a path to a monster day.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (WR – TEN)
Calvin Ridley has to be wondering what a guy has to do to get a touchdown pass from Will Levis. Ridley has a touchdown in just two of Tennessee’s games despite having more than double the number of targets of any receiver or tight end on the roster. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, on the other hand, now has a touchdown in six of the Titans’ last seven games despite having more than three catches just once in that span. Five targets and 116 air yards represent a tiny uptick in usage for Westbrook-Ikhine, so it might be worth monitoring if the balance of opportunity between Ridley and Westbrook-Ikhine is starting to even out.
The most striking number of Westbrook-Ikhine’s week was the fact he finished Week 12 with the third-highest air yards share of any player (55%). For comparison, the league leader among wide receivers for 2024 is A.J. Brown at 49.6%, so Westbrook-Ikhine’s week was truly elite. The touchdowns are probably fluky and could regress at any moment, but if the usage keeps ticking up and the air yards remain high, Westbrook-Ikhine could continue to serve as a borderline WR2/WR3 all season.
Terry McLaurin gets a scary matchup this week with the Titans, who allow the fourth-fewest points per game to wide receivers. If this were earlier in the season, I would have said McLaurin was a must-start regardless of this tough matchup, but he (along with the rest of the Commanders’ offense) has struggled in recent weeks.
McLaurin has averaged just a 13.5% target share over the last four weeks, a far cry from his 24.1% average over the first eight games of the season. While he is coming off a big game, he was one terrible play by the Cowboys’ defense away from his second straight outing below five fantasy points. Against a Titans defense that allows the fewest yards per game to wide receivers, McLaurin may be in for another lackluster outing if he doesn’t hit on a big play.
Must-Know Tight End Fantasy Football Stats
While many put George Kittle on their do-not-draft list this year because of his age, the veteran tight end has been outstanding. He is the TE1 for the season, averaging 15.2 half-PPR fantasy points per game, a career-high. Furthermore, Kittle’s 15.2 fantasy points per game average is 11.8% higher than his previous best mark during the 2018 season (13.4). The star tight end is on pace for a career-high 13 receiving touchdowns, scoring in all but one game since Week 1.
Among 56 tight ends with at least 75 routes since Week 3, Cade Otton is:
- eighth in route participation (74.1%)
- eighth in air yards share (19.9%)
- sixth in target share (20.3%)
- tied for ninth in targets per route run (0.25)
- eighth in first-read percentage (20.8%)
- fourth in receptions (49)
- seventh in receiving yards per game (53.4)
- tied for third in end-zone targets (five)
- tied for fourth in receiving touchdowns (four)
- sixth in expected DraftKings and FanDuel points per game (12.4)
Otton should bounce back in the literal best matchup this week. The Panthers have allowed the most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to tight ends this season.
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