With all 32 teams playing in Week 13 and the fantasy football playoffs right around the corner, your fantasy start sit decisions become even more critical. No longer is it OK to select players based on name-brand value alone. We have 12 weeks of data behind us and now is the time to listen to the facts and stats that matter and use them to make smart choices.
Below are the safest and riskiest picks for Week 13. Good luck.
With all 32 teams playing in Week 13 and the fantasy football playoffs right around the corner, your fantasy start sit decisions become even more critical. No longer is it OK to select players based on name-brand value alone. We have 12 weeks of data behind us and now is the time to listen to the facts and stats that matter and use them to make smart choices.
Below are the safest and riskiest picks for Week 13. Good luck.
Gus Edwards first started to go off the rails around this time last year, averaging 3.4 yards per carry and 1.0 missed tackles forced per game after averaging 4.6 yards per carry and 2.0 missed tackles over the first 11 weeks. Edwards also saw his big run rate drop from 5.6% to 1.3% for the last six weeks of the season. Edwards is averaging 3.3 yards per carry this year with a total of four missed tackles forced and zero big runs, with his nine carries for 11 yards against the Ravens salvaged by a touchdown. Otherwise, it’s been a miserable year for Edwards.
Thirteen of Edwards’ 63 rush attempts have gone for fewer than zero yards before contact, with 38 of the carries resulting in fewer than one yard before contact. Simply put, Edwards isn’t finding gaps or making players miss. With J.K. Dobbins missing at least one game with his MCL Sprain, the clamor to start his replacement is natural, but Edwards might be fool’s gold against a Falcons defense allowing the 10th0fewest running back fantasy points and is middle of the pack in most run defense metrics. It feels far more likely the Chargers will have to lean into the pass and get by with a committee approach at running back.
Normally, Travis Etienne starts hot and then fades dramatically down the second half of the season. This year, though, he’s just been miserable throughout the entire season. It’s not all on Etienne, of course. The coaching staff, offensive line and offensive play are all part of the puzzle, but the fact remains, Etienne was a bad draft pick this year. Etienne hasn’t finished higher than RB20 in PPR formats at any point this year and has been held below 7.1 PPR points in five of his last six games.
Etienne is touchdown-reliant but has scored his only two touchdowns from inside the 5-yard line, all the way back in Week 1 and Week 2. The Texans rank second in run defense DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), according to FTN. They have also allowed the sixth-fewest running back fantasy points, giving up only two touchdowns since Week 7. On top of all the damming indictments on Etienne, Tank Bigsby is reportedly healthy again and should play a bigger role than in recent weeks. Start Etienne at your own risk.
If you were to only look at Anthony Richardson’s box score for Week 12 then his 13 fantasy points and 39% completion rate would likely fail to impress, but there were reasons for hope. Richardson saw a touchdown pass dropped, while Ashton Dulin stepped out of bounds instead of making a sideline catch and all in all, 80 yards were nullified through penalties that weren’t Richardson’s fault.
Richardson has had 10 rush attempts in consecutive games, totaling 93 yards and two touchdowns on those 20 attempts, including a season-high 61 yards in Week 12. The Patriots play the third-most man coverage, according to Fantasy Points, and Richardson has a league-leading 26% deep throw rate against these looks. It’s not breaking any news to say Richardson is a risky player, but even with a solid rushing floor, he remains one of the players with the biggest range of outcomes each week.
Since DeAndre Hopkins departed Tennessee in Week 7, Calvin Ridley has been on an absolute tear, totaling 454 receiving yards in five games, which ranks third among all receivers. He also leads all receivers in air yards market share (49.1%).
It would have been fair to assume a fall-off could have been coming for Ridley after the way he and Will Levis seemed unable to connect early on in the year, but when Levis returned to the starting lineup, Ridley continued to thrive. There’s no reason he can’t again in Week 13. The Commanders rank 25th in pass defense DVOA and have given up six top-eight PPR performances this year.
Seeing even this resurgent version of the Carolina Panthers on the schedule is something that must come as a welcome relief for most teams as the weeks grind on. The Panthers rank 32nd in run defense DVOA and allow the most running back fantasy points this year, allowing seven top-12 performances and a league-leading 160.5 rushing yards per game.
Over the last two games, Bucky Irving has 25 rush attempts for 160 yards and two touchdowns as well as nine receptions for 82 yards. Perhaps more importantly, though, Irving out-snapped Rachaad White in Week 12 and also ran 20 routes to White’s 11. It’s not uncommon to see a rookie take a bigger workload coming out of a bye week. If that’s what we’re seeing materialize, Irving could be a league-winner.
In back-to-back weeks, Nico Collins has had large touchdown plays called back for ticky-tacky penalties that the rule of cool would have let slide. Collins’ return to the starting lineup has been slow with him seeing 46% of snaps in Week 11 before a 78% snap share in Week 12.
It feels like Collins is ready to be fully unleashed against a weak Jacksonville squad that ranks 32nd in DVOA against the pass and allows the third-most wide receiver fantasy points. In Week 4, when these teams met, Collins finished with 33.1 PPR points and was the WR1 overall that week. Now, Collins won’t even have to contend with Stefon Diggs for targets and should have a path to a monster day.
I'm a fantasy football addict, particularly in love with best ball and DFS. I can often be found scrutinising ADP and looking for edges in the best ball streets.
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