The Bye-Pocalypse begins here in Week 12, before a single-week reprieve in Week 13 followed by another brutal set of bye weeks in Week 14. Those byes will likely force your hands in certain leagues but where possible we still need to take a forensic view of our fantasy football teams and make sure we’re not starting anyone solely for name brand’s sake. These are the riskiest and safest starts heading into Week 12.
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Let’s dive into some risky and safe starts for Week 12 of the fantasy football season.
Week 12 Risky Fantasy Football Starts
D’Andre Swift (RB – CHI) vs Vikings
This season has been the usual up-and-down experience with D’Andre Swift, starting out with three finishes outside the top-30 running backs, before three inside the top-6, and then the last four all being between RB11 and 32. Week 11 saw Swift see his fewest rush attempts since Week 3 with Roschon Johnson seeing 10 attempts to Swift’s 14. Matt Eberflus remarked after the game how that felt like a positive split between the running backs and given that it was Chicago’s best performance in weeks, it shouldn’t be surprising if we see that trend continue. Swift has long been reliant on volume to hit his best outcomes and if he’s lacking volume it could be bad news against a Vikings defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Minnesota also ranks first in FTN’s Run Defense DVOA metric and has allowed only three running backs to go over 51 rushing yards against them this year. Only two running backs have surpassed 28 receiving yards and they’ve surrendered a total of two running back touchdowns since Week 3. Maybe the Bears resurgence continues, but typically it’s wide receivers who’ve faired better against the Vikings than running backs.
Malik Nabers (WR – NYG) vs Buccaneers
Between Weeks 2-4 Malik Nabers looked like a true league-winner with finishes of WR3, 4 and 6, before suffering a concussion and then suffering through a down-swing in Daniel Jones‘s play. Nabers for what it’s worth has only one finish worse than WR32 all season, which for a rookie is a reasonable level of consistency and he hasn’t harmed your roster too badly. With Daniel Jones the Giants QB3 and facing the end of his time in New York we once again get half-meme, half-man Tommy DeVito back at quarterback in a matchup that should have been fantastic for Nabers. The Bucs have allowed the sixth-most WR fantasy points, rank 23rd in DVOA against the pass and have allowed six different WRs to finish with 16 or more PPR points since Week 7. Devito completed a reasonably respectful 67% of his passes in 2023 with an average depth of target (aDOT) of 7.4, his biggest barrier to success was sacks, averaging 6.0 taken per game. Perhaps a pass-heavy script with Devito having to push the ball 20 yards to the sticks can help Nabers out, but it’s a large case of the unknown.
“Tommy DeVito is gonna be playing on Thanksgiving. AJ, do you have any idea what that means? An Italian-American quarterback on the national stage like that. You oughta be proud to be Italian, if Tommy Cutlets can do what’s your excuse?” pic.twitter.com/4zayFPWDzz
— Sopranos World (@SopranosWorld) November 18, 2024
Kyren Williams (RB – LAR) vs Eagles
The Rams heavily relied upon Kyren Williams for much of the season until Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned from their respective injuries but since their returns it’s all gone quiet for Williams. Over the last three games the Rams have rushed the ball on 28.6% (per FantasyPoints) of plays inside the red zone, the joint-lowest mark in the league, and inside the 10-yard line they have the third-lowest number (23.1%). The Rams are also passing in neutral game scripts at the eleventh-highest rate and leaning into their wide receivers, resulting in Williams having zero touchdowns for three consecutive games, marking the first time in the last two years Williams has gone two or more straight games without a touchdown of any kind. The Eagles allow the fifth-fewest RB fantasy points, giving up two RB touchdowns since Week 4, with no running back finishing higher than RB12 against them and only four finishing as top-20 options all year.
Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR) vs Chiefs
The Panthers return to America on the back of a bye week following their trip to Germany and hope they can capitalize on the momentum of two consecutive wins, but sadly their Week 12 opponents, the Chiefs, are also somewhat motivated after losing their first game of the season to the Bills. Chuba Hubbard has been one of the best value plays of the season, easily better than Miles Sanders is at this point in his career and with the Panthers somewhat set on allowing Jonathon Brooks as much time as possible to recover from his 2023 torn ACL. The Chiefs however are not a fun opponent for running backs allowing the fewest RB fantasy points with only two RBs gaining more than 46 rushing yards against them and a grand total of five rushing touchdowns being allowed all year. To add to Hubbard’s woes, it sounds like Jonathon Brooks might finally make his debut and while he likely won’t see a huge role, he could eat into Hubbard’s touches just enough to harm his relevancy.
Panthers rookie RB Jonathon Brooks prepares for his NFL debut Sunday against the Chiefs as RT Taylor Moton looks on. pic.twitter.com/gbMlhOXRgA
— David Newton (@DNewtonespn) November 20, 2024
Week 9 Safe Fantasy Football Starts
Ladd McConkey (WR – LAC) vs Ravens
Are the Ravens playing this week? Yes. Do we like fantasy points? Yes. Time to start everyone who catches passes against them? Yes. It really is that simple with the Ravens woeful pass defense at the moment. Somewhat surprisingly the Ravens outside corners, Marlon Humphry and Nate Wiggins, both grade pretty well but the middle of the field has been jackpot territory for receivers this year and that bodes well for slot receiver, Ladd McConkey. The Ravens lead the league in touchdowns allowed to passes to the middle of the field, along with total yards, opponents’ QB Rating and are one of five teams to not have an interception in this area of the field. Ladd McConkey has the seventh-most receiving yards on passes to the middle of the field and boasts a 40.8 air yards share on targets to this area of the field as well as a 38% first-read target share on these throws according to FantasyPoints. The Ravens defense showed signs of life against the Steelers, but it’s too early to be afraid of them figuring it out.
Bo Nix (QB – DEN) vs Raiders
Every time the schedule seems to be turning difficult for rookie, Bo Nix, things seem to pivot back the other way with Nix surviving games against the Ravens and Chiefs to absolutely dominate the Falcons completing 80% of his passes while throwing for four touchdowns and over 300 yards. The Raiders will put up a similarly weak defense in Week 12 with them ranking 24th in defense at home and having given up eight passing touchdowns in their last two games. Nix has been a top-12 quarterback in six of his 11 games this year, more than Kyler Murray, Brock Purdy, CJ Stroud or Patrick Mahomes have managed. The Raiders have also allowed both Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson to rush for over 45 yards against them, which might help Nix who has totaled zero rushing yards in his last two games.
Bo Nix is the first rookie in NFL history to complete 80 percent of his passes while throwing for at least 4 TD and 300 yards @NFLPlus
— Dante Koplowitz-Fleming (@DanteKopFlem) November 18, 2024
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