Week 11 is here and it is time for another look at the riskiest and safest starts as we near the end of the regular fantasy season. Each week we dive into fantasy start sit matchups you might want to avoid along with some of the ones you can have the most confidence in.
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Let’s dive into some risky and safe starts for Week 11 of the fantasy football season.
Week 11 Risky Fantasy Football Starts
Zay Flowers (WR – BAL) @ Steelers
The Ravens’ offense is cooking and Lamar Jackson is well on his way to a third MVP. Part of the reason is that Baltimore’s offense is far more complex than it’s been at any point in the Lamar Jackson era. The days of teams being able to take away Mark Andrews and flummox Jackson are over. We’re seeing different players pop up and be featured weekly. Eight different skill position players have finished inside the top eight among their positions on different weeks with the latest being Tylan Wallace.
Zay Flowers has been very good this year and ranks 23rd in PPR points per game, but there are weeks where he goes missing for fantasy purposes. Over the last four weeks, he’s finished as the WR65, WR14, WR3 and WR42. Trying to guess where Flowers will finish this week is particularly tricky with him playing against a Pittsburgh side that’s allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to receivers.
Evan Engram (TE – JAX) @ Lions
Mac Jones targeted tight ends on an absurdly high 59% of his targets against the Vikings in Week 10, which on the surface sounds like an excellent thing for Evan Engram, but all may not be as it seems. Engram only saw eight targets, which was a drop off from the 10 he saw in the previous game when Trevor Lawrence was still healthy. The eight targets from Jones resulted in six catches for 40 yards.
Jones is simply unable to push the ball downfield as well as Lawrence, resulting in more catches in busy areas of the field, making yards after the catch opportunities tougher to come by. The Jaguars play Detroit, who allow the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends and have allowed just one top-12 performance since Week 4. They have given up just one touchdown to the tight position this year. The Lions’ defense is a clear mismatch for the Jaguars’ offense. Banking on any Jaguar is risky business.
Mac Jones targeted TEs on 59% of his passes yesterday.
Not ideal.
— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) November 11, 2024
Tank Dell (WR – HOU) @ Cowboys
2024 hasn’t paid off for Tank Dell in the way many hoped for after such a strong rookie campaign. Even with Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs missing time, Dell has managed a single top-30 weekly finish in his last four games. He has only two on the season. Dell isn’t solely to blame with C.J. Stroud and the Texans’ offense regressing across the board, but Dell has become a hindrance on fantasy rosters at this point.
Collins looks set to return in Week 11 after being a game-time decision in Week 10 and missing out. His return should give the offense a significant boost. With their Week 11 opponent, Dallas, struggling for even the remotest sense of offense under Cooper Rush, the Texans are unlikely to be pushed into a pass-heavy script, making it hard for Dell to return the number of points we’d want.
Week 11 Safe Fantasy Football Starts
Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ) vs. Colts
The Jets’ season has been spiraling the drain for several weeks and the shellacking Arizona handed them likely finished their playoff hopes, but there are jobs on the line and it’s too early to sit players. A soft Indianapolis defense might be the feel-good boost the Jets need right now. Despite all the turmoil, Garrett Wilson is the WR3 in PPR points and leads all wide receivers in total targets with 99, in part thanks to the Jets’ ranking fourth in pass rate over expected (PROE).
The addition of Davante Adams has done little to hurt Wilson’s output with him averaging a 26% target share over the last four games. The Colts’ pass defense has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards and the 12th-most fantasy points with seven different receivers scoring at least 16 points against them. The Jets might be finished, but Wilson is far from it.
Travis Kelce (TE – KC) @ Bills
Travis Kelce has been an integral and reliable part of the Chiefs’ passing attack ever since Rashee Rice got injured, seeing a target share of 20% in every game since. The Chiefs have the fifth-highest PROE, compensating for a rushing offense that lacks any form of explosivity.
Kelce has finished as a top-five tight end in all but one of his last six games, averaging 71.6 yards in that period and scoring over 20 points in each of his last three games. Buffalo hasn’t been a standout matchup for tight ends this year, allowing the 13th-fewest points to the position, but it shouldn’t matter for an elite tight end seeing such high volume.
Travis Kelce (priced as the WR18 on DraftKings):
– 18.6 XFP/G since Week 7 (4th-best among main slate WRs over the full season)
– 9.5 catchable targets per game (1st among main slate WRs)
– 29% target share (2nd among main slate WRs)Per @FantasyPtsData
— Jake Tribbey (@JakeTribbey) November 12, 2024
Russell Wilson (QB – PIT) vs. Ravens
It feels likely we’re at a point where we have to emphasize starting anyone involved in a passing game against the Ravens, whose defensive regression has been shocking, to say the least. The Ravens have allowed 308 more passing yards than the next worst defense and also lead the league in touchdowns allowed (22).
For all the offense’s brilliance, this defense could be the difference between them winning or losing a Super Bowl. Russell Wilson has been by far a better quarterback for this offense than Justin Fields was with six passing touchdowns, one rushing touchdown, an average of 245 passing yards per game and scoring over 19 fantasy points in two of his three starts. Wilson has top-eight potential this week.
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