The fantasy football season is disappearing before our eyes and the playoffs are fast approaching, which makes the importance of our weekly fantasy start sit decisions even more important. These are the riskiest and safest starts for Week 10.
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Let’s dive into some risky and safe starts for Week 10 of the fantasy football season.
Week 10 Risky Fantasy Football Starts
C.J. Stroud vs. Detroit Lions
This offseason, C.J. Stroud became the latest quarterback to fall victim to pocket passer projection syndrome, a deeply sad condition that impacts many within the fantasy football space. Rocketing the average draft position (ADP) of a pocket passer to levels where they simply can’t compete with the dual-threats at the top of draft boards.
Stroud was the consensus QB5 despite only having two top-five weekly finishes in 2023 and finishing as the QB11 in points per game and QB12 in total points. Stroud had done little to earn this ADP, but the promise was insatiable. With the addition of Stefon Diggs, drafters couldn’t help themselves. Here we are, through nine weeks, with zero top-six weekly finishes from Stroud.
To deliver top-five quarterback numbers without a dual-threat floor, pocket passers need to pass for around 245 passing yards per game on average and around 1.8 touchdowns. Stroud is averaging 237.6 yards and 1.2 touchdowns per game. The Lions have allowed the 18th-most quarterback fantasy points this year, holding the likes of Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith, Jordan Love and every other signal-caller they’ve faced to a maximum of one passing touchdown per game.
The Lions have the third-best pass defense in FTN’s DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) metric and are a tough matchup for anyone, let alone a Texans team struggling to protect their quarterback. Even Nico Collins‘ potential return might not be enough for Stroud.
CJ Stroud
The last three games(including tonight) per game average:
179 passing yards
.3 TD
0 INT pic.twitter.com/1zAw12Fag5— Nick Whalen (@_NickWhalen) November 1, 2024
Sam LaPorta @ Houston Texans
Speaking of the Lions, Sam LaPorta produced a season-high 16.8 points in Week 8 and it felt like he could be turning a corner potentially, but then he dropped only 4.8 points in Week 9 — fewer than AJ Barner (TE23), Quintin Morris (TE19) and Chris Manhertz (TE18), among others, as LaPorta finished as the TE29.
LaPorta hasn’t commanded the kind of targets he did in 2023 with the emergence of Jameson Williams, who returns from suspension this week, but it’s also down to the Lions having to pass a lot less this year. In 2023, the defense ranked 16th against the pass and Jared Goff passed for 30+ attempts in 81% of games. This year he’s done that a single time (12%) because the Lions’ pass defense ranks third-best and the Lions can dictate games easier.
The Texans have allowed two top-12 finishes to tight ends all year and only three touchdowns. No tight end has crested 41 receiving yards against them either.
Michael Pittman vs. Buffalo Bills
The return of Joe Flacco to the starting lineup was supposed to help the Colts’ passing game, with Michael Pittman and Josh Downs, in particular, pass-catchers fantasy managers were hoping would succeed. Downs succeeded with six catches for 60 yards but Pittman did not, with four targets, one catch and a paltry 14 yards, ranking sixth on the Colts in receiving yards in Week 9.
Flacco completed one pass longer than 20 yards against the Vikings — a 22-yard pass when the Colts found themselves on 2nd-and-30. Perhaps things improve without the blitz-heavy Vikings coming after Flacco, but Pittman faces the Bills, who have allowed the sixth-fewest wide receiver fantasy points, with only Jets wide receivers finishing inside the top 18 against them.
Pittman has five finishes outside the top 50 of fantasy receivers and is the kind of player who often does fantasy rosters more harm than good. Perhaps his performances are being impeded by his back injury. Either way, Pittman doesn’t belong in your starting lineup if you have alternative fantasy start sit options.
.@mchappell51 asking #Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. about his back.
Does it limit him?
“I’m not gonna make excuses for it. If I’m out there, I’m out there.”
No excuses, so one catch the last two games?
“Obviously, I’d like to be more productive out there …” pic.twitter.com/MCHPZouyNQ
— James Boyd (@RomeovilleKid) November 6, 2024
Week 10 Safe Fantasy Football Starts
Darnell Mooney @ New Orleans Saints
The Drake London breakout has been as welcome as it is impressive for those who believed in him this offseason. While the Falcons’ offense as a whole deserves praise for the jump it has taken, it’s perhaps most noteworthy in Mooney. After four years with the Bears, including under 500 receiving yards in the last two seasons, Mooney needed a change of scenery. With competent coaching and quarterback play he’s thriving with the ninth-most receiving yards (588) and the 12th-most targets (65).
The Falcons have the second-best offense DVOA at home and take on a Saints team allowing the 10th-most wide receiver fantasy points. They just traded their best cornerback, Marshon Lattimore, to the Commanders and fired head coach Dennis Allen. Mooney’s ceiling will be dictated by whether London is at full strength. Either way, Mooney should have another strong performance here.
Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are a complicated defense bringing lots of different looks for quarterbacks to decipher, but it might be that these are the types of looks Trevor Lawrence wants to see. Lawrence has the second-highest deep throw rate when seeing zone coverage, according to Fantasy Points, with the Vikings allowing the third-most catches to deep areas of the field (30). Thomas is third in receptions (eight) on passes 20+ yards downfield and is tied for the most touchdowns (third). With no Christian Kirk and the Vikings allowing the second-most wide receiver fantasy points, this feels like it sets up nicely for Thomas Jr. to have a big week.
Brian Thomas imposing his will. Bullying Christian Gonzalez. pic.twitter.com/WjCHoNyEC4
— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) October 25, 2024
De’Von Achane @ Los Angeles Rams
Things haven’t played out how the Dolphins hoped in 2024 but a get-right game looms against the Rams, who have recently righted their ship. The Rams’ run defense ranks 22nd in DVOA and has allowed a middle-of-the-table 4.38 yards per carry. Where they should be worried is the receiving game, as they are giving up 25+ yards in each of the last three games to running backs.
De’Von Achane is averaging a 20% target share in games with Tua Tagovailoa and has had at least six catches and 50 receiving yards in each of Tagovailoa’s three full games, scoring two touchdowns as well. Those kinds of receiving lines would be worth over 16 PPR points per game, something many wide receivers would be envious of.
The Rams play the fifth-most single-high coverage, which Tagovailoa leads the league in catchable ball rate against, mainly because he ranks 34th in average depth of target (aDOT) against these looks. Achane has seen six targets in the last two games versus single-high coverage, according to Fantasy Points.
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