Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Lineup Advice: Week 12
Chubb has played only 30-36% of the snaps in three of his four games this season while averaging 13.8 touches and 42.3 total yards. He looks like a player coming off a major injury, with an 11% missed tackle rate and only 2.25 yards after contact per attempt. Chubb has another nice matchup on the ground incoming this week, but I don’t know if he can take advantage of it. Since Week 6, Pittsburgh has allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the highest yards per carry to zone runs, and the second-highest rushing success rate to zone runs (Chubb 60.4% zone).
Pickens is the WR30 in fantasy points per game, ranking sixth in deep targets and fourth in red zone targets among wide receivers. He has a 26.9% target share, a 47% air-yard share, 2.69 YPRR, and a 35.9% first-read share. Since Week 6, Cleveland has utilized single-high at the 11th-highest rate (55.3%). Against single high, Pickens has seen his target share jump to 31.7%, his YPRR rise to 3.25, and his first-read share climb to 41.1%. Since Week 6, Cleveland has been eaten alive by perimeter wide receivers, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game and the third-most receiving yards per game.
With Winston under center, Tillman has been the WR8 in fantasy points per game. He has commanded a 20.1% target share and 23.8% first-read share with four end-zone targets (team-leading) and 73.7 receiving yards per game. Since Week 6, the Steelers have had the highest single-high rate in the NFL (73.5%). Since Week 8, against single-high, Tillman has ranked second on the team with a 24.6% target share, 2.46 YPRR, and a 25.5% first-read share. The question for Tillman and Jerry Jeudy this week is, “Who will Joey Porter Jr. shadow?” Porter Jr. has followed six receivers this season on at least 65.2% of their routes. In his primary coverage, only one receiver surpassed 50 receiving yards, and he allowed only one receiving touchdown. The possible shadow coverage adds some volatility to Tillman’s projection this week. Whoever avoids shadow coverage should eat this week. Since Week 6, Pittsburgh has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game and the 11th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
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