Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Lineup Advice: Week 13
Tagovailoa has finished as a QB1 in each of the last two games (QB11, QB3) while ranking as the QB14 in fantasy points per game since his return. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 12th in yards per attempt, fifth in passer rating, and 13th in CPOE. Miami has fundamentally changed its offensive approach, ditching deep passing for underneath passing. Tagovailoa has the lowest aDOT among all qualifying quarterbacks, and the second-highest percentage of his passing yards have come via yards after the catch (61.2%). Since Week 7, Green Bay has allowed the 11th-lowest CPOE, the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns, the 14th-lowest passer rating, and has ranked 16th in yards per attempt. Working in Tagovailoa’s favor is the fact that, since Week 7, Green Bay has also allowed the 14th-highest yards after the catch per reception. This doesn’t project as a smash matchup for him, though.
Since Tua Tagovailoa‘s return, Hill has only seen an 18.8% target share, a 34.2% air-yard share, and a 23.1% first-read share (tied for the team lead) while producing 1.90 YPRR and 55.4 receiving yards per game. Since Week 8, Hill has six red zone targets. Since Week 6, Green Bay has utilized two high at the tenth-highest rate (52.8%). Across his last five games, against two high, Hill has had only a 16.5% target share with 1.36 YPRR and an 18.8% first-read share. It hasn’t been pretty, and I don’t think it will get any better this week. Since Week 7, Green Bay has allowed the sixth-fewest PPR points per target and the fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
I’m not chasing Waddle’s explosive outing last week. I love the player and the talent, but I hate his usage this season. Since Tua Tagovailoa‘s return, Waddle has had a 15.3% target share, 2.05 YPRR, and a 15.7% first-read share. It hasn’t been pretty, as he has averaged only 55.8 receiving yards per game. Waddle has only one red zone target since Week 7. Since Week 6, Green Bay has utilized two high at the tenth-highest rate (52.8%). Across his last five games, against two high, Waddle has had only a 14.7% target share, 1.69 YPRR, and a 15% first-read share. Since Week 7, Green Bay has allowed the sixth-fewest PPR points per target and the fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
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