Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (Week 9)

Amazing how fast the fantasy season moves isn’t it? By the time we have enough data to get a decent read on some of these players, we’re into the second half of the regular season and getting ready to make a final push for the playoffs.

The calendar has flipped to November. It’s time to start polishing that playoff resume. Ready to put your best foot forward and get your team(s) into the postseason?

Let’s go!

Feel free to use these tiered rankings as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. Beneath the tiers, I’ll offer a few brief thoughts on some of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases.

The calendar has flipped to November. It’s time to start polishing that playoff resume. Ready to put your best foot forward and get your team(s) into the postseason?

Let’s go!

Fitz’s Week 9 Rankings & Tiers

Quarterbacks

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Tier 6

As of this writing, it was unclear whether Packers QB Jordan Love would play against the Lions in Week 9 after sustaining a groin injury last Sunday against the Jaguars. I’m tentatively leaving Love out of my rankings. The Packers are generally conservative about bringing players back from injury, and they have a Week 10 bye, so sitting Love would effectively give him three weeks of recovery time. But if Love does play, I’ll have him ranked QB6 against a pass-funnel Lions defense. I have the Packers’ backup, Malik Willis, ranked QB24. He’s a dangerous runner, but he attempted fewer than 20 passes in each of his two previous starts for Green Bay.

If Kirk Cousins could play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers every week, he might break a bunch of single-season passing records. Cousins has 14 TD passes this season, and eight of them have come against the Buccaneers. Predictably, Cousins is getting a rankings bump after throwing for 276 yards and four touchdowns last week. But let’s not forget that in five of Cousins’ eight games this season, he’s finished QB22 or worse in weekly fantasy scoring. Cousins has a good matchup against the Cowboys this week, but I don’t want to lose sight of his inconsistency and feel like I have to account for the floor when we assess him for fantasy. I’m ranking him QB11.

The FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) for Jameis Winston is QB18. I’m way above consensus on him at QB9. Ever the hyper-aggressive passer, Winston had 41 pass attempts last week in his first start for the Browns, and he challenged the Ravens’ defense downfield. His average depth of target last week was 10 yards. My friend Jacob Gibbs of CBS noted that Winston had 275 catchable air yards against the Ravens last week. The previous high in catchable air yards for any quarterback this season was Brock Purdy with 213. Only two other QBs have produced 200 or more catchable air yards in a game this season: Jordan Love and Dak Prescott. The matchup with the Chargers isn’t great, and there’s always a chance Winston’s aggression will lead to interceptions. I don’t care. I want this dude in my lineup.

I’m well below consensus on Caleb Williams. His ECR is QB12. I have him at QB15. It felt as if the rookie was starting to turn a corner right before the Bears’ Week 7 bye. Williams scored 23.6 and 29.6 fantasy points in Weeks 5-6, good for weekly fantasy finishes of QB6 and QB1. But in his first game post-bye, Williams completed 10-of-24 passes for 131 yards and zero touchdowns against the Commanders. Williams simply doesn’t offer a stable floor. He’s failed to throw a touchdown pass in three of his seven starts, and he’s thrown for 174 or fewer yards in four of those games.

Bo Nix was QB4 in fantasy points per game over the month of October. He’s shown improvement as a passer and has been providing serious value with his legs (259 rushing yards, four TD runs). Nix and the Broncos travel to Baltimore for a matchup that looks good on paper. The Ravens have given up the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. But I find it hard to believe that we’re going to get a smash game out of a rookie QB playing a road game in Baltimore. I’m ranking Nix as a midrange QB2 and would be disinclined to use him this week if I had other viable options at the position.

Running Backs

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Tier 6

J.K. Dobbins has been losing steam. After opening the season with a pair of 100-yard rushing games against the Raiders and Panthers, Dobbins has topped 57 rushing yards just once in his last five games. He’s averaged 3.2 yards per carry over that span. The first two games of that five-game stretch were against the Steelers and Chiefs, who have tough run defenses. But Dobbins had 14 carries for 40 yards against the Cardinals two weeks ago, and last week, he had 17 carries for 57 yards against a Saints run defense that has been getting trampled on a weekly basis. I have Dobbins ranked as a low-end RB2 this week against the Browns, so you’re probably starting him if you’re rostering him. But Dobbins’s stakeholders have to be getting nervous. It might not be long before the Chargers give rookie RB Kimani Vidal a serious audition.

Nick Chubb‘s usage ticked up in his second game back from a major knee injury. Chubb made his 2024 debut in Week 7, playing 36% of the Browns’ offensive snaps and rushing 11 times for 22 yards and a touchdown vs. the Bengals. Last week, Chubb’s snap share jumped to 59%, and he had 16 carries for 52 yards against the Ravens, becoming the first RB to run for more than 50 yards against Baltimore this season. Chubb’s matchup against the Chargers isn’t easy — the Bolts have given up the second-fewest fantasy points to RBs — but Chubb is back to getting lead-RB usage, and you know he’s getting the ball whenever the Browns get inside the 5-yard line. Consider him a high-end RB3.

Over his last four games, Alexander Mattison has averaged 16.5 carries, 3.8 catches and 20.3 touches a game. Despite that heavy usage, Mattison is RB32 in fantasy points per game over that stretch — although with just one more point per game, he would have landed at RB24. A lead-back role means less on the Raiders than it does on other teams, but Mattison is still a playable high-end RB3 against a Bengals run defense that ranks 25th in DVOA.

Javonte Williams has a tough matchup against the Ravens, whose run defense ranks fifth in DVOA. But the Ravens have given up the fourth-most receiving yards to RBs, and Javonte is heavily involved as a pass catcher, with 27 receptions. I’m ranking Javonte as a high-end RB3.

Starting Raheem Mostert against the Bills in Week 9 feels like a case of chasing last week’s touchdowns. Mostert scored two of them last week vs. the Cardinals, but he had only nine carries for 19 yards. De’Von Achane is the main man in the Miami backfield now. The only time Mostert has had more than 11 touches in a game was against the Patriots in Week 5 when Achane sustained a concussion early in the game. Mostert doesn’t catch many passes, and it’s possible the game script could go sideways on the Dolphins in a road game against the Bills. I have Mostert ranked as a low-end RB3.

Tyler Allgeier generally doesn’t have much stand-alone value, but he might be able to provide some this week against the Cowboys, whose run defense ranks 30th in DVOA. Allgeier’s two best games this season have come against teams with bad run defenses: the Panthers and Saints. Allgeier had 105 rushing yards and a touchdown vs. the Panthers, and he had 80 yards from scrimmage against the Saints. Allgeier certainly isn’t a desirable fantasy play, but I think you could start him this week if you’re really in a pinch at running back.

Wide Receivers

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Tier 7

We probably shouldn’t assume that Tank Dell is a good fantasy play this week simply because Texans WRs Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs are on the shelf. But Dell hasn’t produced more than 62 receiving yards in any game this season, the Texans’ offensive line has struggled to protect C.J. Stroud the last couple of weeks, and this week’s matchup against the Jets is a tough one. Although the Jets’ defense hasn’t been as good as anticipated, it has still given up the fourth-fewest fantasy points and fifth-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers. I’m ranking Dell as a low-end WR2.

Maybe I’m being gullible, but I’m endorsing Calvin Ridley as a fantasy starter this week. Titans QB Mason Rudolph peppered Ridley with 15 targets last week, and Ridley finished with 10 catches for 143 yards. With the Titans having traded away DeAndre Hopkins, I’m optimistic that Rudolph will continue to lean heavily on Ridley. Who else is he going to lean on? Tyler Boyd? Chig Okonkwo? Puh-lease. Ridley has been a frustrating player for fantasy managers to deal with, but perhaps he’ll finally be the high-quality receiver we’ve been impatiently waiting for him to be.

Everyone likes Josh Downs more than I do this week. It’s not that I don’t like the player. Downs is a smooth-moving slot receiver with reliable hands and a bright future. But an ECR of WR18 is a bridge too far for me. Yes, the QB change from Anthony Richardson to Joe Flacco is undeniably good for Downs. But Downs’ 109-yard game last week against the Texans was just the second 100-yard game of his career, and he’s scored five touchdowns in 23 career games. And do we really think Downs has that much better a Week 9 outlook than teammate Michael Pittman Jr., who has an ECR of WR32? I have Downs ranked WR28, so I’m certainly not telling you to bench him. I just think we should pump the brakes a bit.

I have Xavier Worthy ranked WR33 against the Buccaneers this week, which puts me three spots below consensus. Obviously, Worthy has the sort of blazing speed that could give you a long touchdown in any given week, but the floor has been shaky. Worthy has only topped 50 receiving yards once in seven games, and he’s averaging an anemic 6.4 yards per target. The arrival of DeAndre Hopkins makes it unlikely that Worthy will grow his target share in the weeks to come.

Keon Coleman is probably going to be involved in a lot of start/sit decisions. The rookie’s playmaking ability has been on display the last two weeks, with 4-125-0 against the Titans and 5-70-1 against the Seahawks. However, Coleman has a wide range of possible outcomes this week in his matchup against the Dolphins. Coleman has drawn seven targets in each of the last two weeks — his high-water mark for the season. We can’t count on satisfactory usage when he’s sharing targets with Amari Cooper, Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid and James Cook. Plus, Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady loves to run the ball. Coleman has freaky ball skills and is capable of making his fantasy quote with one big play, but I think he’s more of a risky boom/bust flex option than a must-start.

Wan’Dale Robinson has 11 catches over his last two games, and the longest of those receptions went for 8 yards. Robinson has recorded at least five receptions in six consecutive games, but he hasn’t topped 50 receiving yards in a game since Week 4. Robinson is playable in full-point PPR formats, but I have him ranked WR40 for half-point PPR and have little interest in using him this week even in a good matchup against Washington.

Tight Ends

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Tier 4

Tier 5

Over the last two weeks, Cade Otton has 20 targets, 17 catches, 281 yards and two touchdowns. Injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have necessitated a bigger role for Otton, and he has risen to the challenge. Now, he gets a Week 9 matchup against a Chiefs defense that has given up the second-most fantasy points to tight ends. I know that some savvy managers grabbed Otton even though they already had a top tight end. In such cases, Otton has been so wildly productive and has such a good matchup that I think he’s flex-worthy this week — even though it’s generally a bad idea to flex a tight end.

After scoring five touchdowns last season and leading all tight ends in red-zone targets, Jake Ferguson hasn’t scored a touchdown this season and currently ranks TE21 in fantasy scoring. But Ferguson is still second in targets and receptions for the Cowboys, averaging 7.0 targets and 5.2 catches a game. Ignore the results to date and follow the usage. I have Ferguson ranked TE8 against a Falcons defense that has yielded the 11th-most fantasy points to TEs.

The Texans are without injured WRs Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, so it stands to reason that Dalton Schultz is going to be involved for Houston this week — especially against the Jets, who have a good group of cornerbacks. The Jets might make it tough on WRs Tank Dell, Xavier Hutchison and John Metchie. I’m ranking Schultz as a low-end TE1.