Pat Fitzmaurice | Thu, Nov 28th 2024, 6:13am EST

Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (Week 13)

It’s Thanksgiving week, so let me begin by giving thanks.

This is the start of my fourth year at FantasyPros, and I’m grateful to have a job I truly love. That wasn’t always the case.

A long time ago, I worked at a weekly NFL publication called Pro Football Weekly. I loved that job, too, but it was an entry-level gig that didn’t pay enough for me to live on, so I had to leave. Maybe I could have stayed if I’d lived in, say, Missoula, Montana, or some other place with a low cost of living, but not when I was living in Chicago.

From Pro Football Weekly, I bounced between a couple of editor’s jobs before landing at a major legacy media company. I liked the job but didn’t love it. The work was fulfilling, and I got to be the editor for some pretty cool and famous writers. I didn’t hate getting up for work every day. However, the company treated its employees poorly, and I stayed longer than I should have.

To go from that company to FantasyPros was like a dog going from a shelter to a loving home with a big fenced-in yard. There were some colleagues at the old place I liked and miss seeing. But FantasyPros is truly a family, even though everyone works remotely. It’s a company full of smart, innovative, kind, funny people. Come to think of it, I have no idea why they hired me, but apparently I haven’t ruined the company culture just yet.

It isn’t lost on me that my job is all about frivolity. I’m not exactly working on a cure for cancer. I cater to people who are obsessive about a game based on a game. It’s a weird job when you think about it, but I know there are lots of people who would kill to have it.

The hours can be long during the NFL season. Just ask my wife, who often complains about the backlog of unwatched shows on our DVR this time of year. But, hey, some of the people who consume my work are cops, doctors and nurses, restaurant managers and kindergarten teachers — people with difficult, demanding jobs. So, if you ever hear me complaining about how tough my job is, please punch me in the throat.

I love that it’s my job to figure out how good Khalil Shakir could be. I love that it’s my job to determine whether the Washington Commanders’ offensive decline is a short-term slump or a long-term concern. I love that it’s my job to evaluate whether there’s a quarterback worth taking in the top half of the first round in a 2025 dynasty rookie draft. (Pssst … there isn’t.)

So, thank you for consuming my work and allowing me to have this job. I’ve met some of you in person, and it’s always been rewarding. You guys are awesome.

And thank you to my colleagues for making FantasyPros a great place to work. Can’t wait to see all of you early in 2025.

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. Now, on with the frivolity.

As always, feel free to use these tiered rankings as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. Beneath the tiers, I’ll offer a few brief thoughts on some of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases.

Fitz’s Week 13 Fantasy Football Rankings & Tiers

QUARTERBACKS

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Matthew Stafford‘s weekly fantasy finishes in the five games since Rams WRs Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp returned from injuries: QB5, QB13, QB20, QB5, QB8. All told, Stafford is QB10 in fantasy points per game over that stretch. His matchup against the Saints this week isn’t difficult, and he gets a weather-proof dome environment. I have Stafford ranked QB14, and I’m worried that I’m too low on him.

It feels as if people are starting to lose confidence in Darnold, and I’m not sure why. He’s thrown multiple TD passes in 8-of-11 starts this season, including four of the last five. Darnold ranks fifth in yards per attempt with 8.3 behind only Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy and Jalen Hurts. Darnold is QB10 in fantasy points per game this season, tied with Patrick Mahomes. And now that T.J. Hockenson is healthy again, Darnold has a pretty awesome group of pass catchers, including Hockenson, Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Darnold is a playable midrange QB2 in a home matchup against the Cardinals.

Yes, Russell Wilson has a good Week 13 matchup. The Bengals rank 27th in DVOA against the pass and have given up the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and any game involving the Bengals has shootout potential. But the Steelers want to run the ball no matter who the opponent is. They’ve run on 52.3% of their offensive snaps this season. Russ has had fewer than 30 pass attempts in four of his five starts. And even though WR George Pickens is a baller — or at least he is when he wants to be — the Steelers are probably a bottom-five team in terms of pass-catching talent. Wilson is QB24 in fantasy points per game since being inserted as the starter in Week 7. I’m just not that interested in starting him regardless of matchup.

RUNNING BACKS

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I hate being slightly below the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking on Bucky Irving, who’s in the midst of a wildly impressive rookie year. Among all running backs with at least 40 rushing attempts, Irving is second in yards after contact per attempt with 4.19. He’s ninth in breakaway run rate among RBs with at least 40 carries. Irving is averaging 5.4 yards per carry, and he adds value as a pass catcher. And, boy, is he fun to watch. Irving is a slippery ankle-breaker who strings moves together and makes a lot of would-be tacklers look foolish. But I just can’t get any higher than RB19 on Irving when he’s splitting work pretty evenly with Rachaad White (with a dash of Sean Tucker mixed in for good measure). The matchup against the Panthers is terrific, though, and I suspect that only fantasy managers in extremely shallow leagues would consider sitting Irving this week.

Tyrone Tracy looks like he could be a special player. He’s averaging 5.1 yards per carry behind an offensive line that PFF has graded 23rd in run blocking. Tracy is 10th in breakaway run percentage among RBs with at least 40 carries, right behind Bucky Irving. Now, Tracy gets a Thanksgiving Day matchup against the Cowboys, whose run defense ranks 29th in DVOA. But there’s unquestionably some risk here. Tracy has fumbled three times in his last two games, and he’s lost two of them. His overtime fumble in Week 10 handed the Panthers a win in Germany, and Tracy lost another one last week in the Giants’ blowout loss to the Buccaneers. It’s possible Tracy will see a workload reduction this week because of the fumbling issue, and another fumble would almost certainly land him on the bench. I’ve got him ranked RB20, but it’s not a comfortable ranking.

J.K. Dobbins is going to miss Week 13 — and possibly multiple weeks — with a knee injury, leaving Gus Edwards as the lead back for the Chargers. Edwards is a 29-year-old plodder who’s averaging 3.3 yards per carry and doesn’t catch passes. The profile isn’t exciting, but he’s very familiar with Chargers offensive coordinator Greg Roman and vice versa, and Edwards is likely to get at least a dozen carries this week against the Falcons, possibly close to 20. Edwards checks in at RB33 in the half-point PPR rankings. He gains a little value in standard scoring formats and loses some in full-point PPR.

Admittedly, I don’t have a good handle on how the Chiefs will deploy their running backs Friday vs. the Raiders. Isiah Pacheco appears set to return from a leg injury. I still have Kareem Hunt (RB28) ranked ahead of Pacheco (RB34), but that could be a misinterpretation. My thinking is that the Chiefs are 10-1 and have the luxury of easing Pacheco back into action rather than feeding him 15+ carries right away.

It gives me no joy to fade Nick Chubb, but he’s averaging 3.0 yards per carry in his first five games back, with a long run of 15 yards. He has three catches for seven yards. Chubb had 20 carries for 59 yards against the Steelers in the snow last week, but he bailed out his fantasy investors with a pair of 2-yard touchdown runs. On Monday night, Chubb faces a Denver run defense that ranks fourth in DVOA and has only allowed five rushing touchdowns to RBs. Chubb lands as a midrange RB3 in this week’s rankings.

The guess here is that Tank Bigsby returns from an ankle injury this week. He had returned to practice in Week 11 but was held out that week and then got an extra week of recovery time during the Jaguars’ Week 12 bye. Bigsby has been a better runner than teammate Travis Etienne this season, and it hasn’t been particularly close. Bigsby ranks No. 1 in yards after contact per carry among all RBs with at least 40 rushing attempts. Etienne hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 2 and hasn’t even been good in the passing game this year. He’s averaging 4.6 yards per catch and 3.4 yards per target. The FantasyPros ECR has Etienne ranked ahead of Bigsby. I have both ranked as low-end RB3s, but I think Bigsby is the better play for Week 13.

WIDE RECEIVERS

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Rankers are down on Garrett Wilson after a two-game stretch in which he had nine catches for 59 yards with no touchdowns. But before that, Wilson had a five-game stretch from Week 5 to Week 9 in which he had 40 catches, 472 yards and four touchdowns. Wilson was WR1 in fantasy scoring over that stretch. His matchup against the Seahawks isn’t bad. There are no sure things with the Jets these days, but I would start Wilson this week without hesitation.

I was buying the Calvin Ridley steam a couple of weeks ago when he was practically drowning in targets. Now I’m pumping the brakes a little. Ridley has only drawn six targets in each of his last two games, and it’s not like it was because the Titans were blowing anyone out in those games and didn’t have to throw. One of those games was a 10-point loss to Minnesota. The other was that wild seesaw win against the Texans last Sunday. And obviously, whatever targets Calvin Ridley gets are coming from Will Levis. I’m ranking Ridley WR21 this week, well below consensus.

Jakobi Meyers is quietly on a 100-catch pace. I initially ranked Meyers as a low-end WR3, but my confidence in Meyers increased with the news that Aidan O’Connell will start at quarterback for the Raiders this week in place of the injured Gardner Minshew. O’Connell has been out with a broken thumb, but he’s good to go. I wouldn’t have felt as good about Meyers if Desmond Ridder had started at QB for Las Vegas in Week 13. I’ve got Meyers at WR29.

Assuming Trevor Lawrence is able to return for the Jaguars this week, I’ll feel OK about starting Brian Thomas Jr. whom I have ranked WR30. I wouldn’t say the Texans are the easiest matchup, but they’ve allowed the sixth most fantasy points to WRs. I’m happy to bet on a wildly talented young receiver who’s pacing for a 1,000-yard season, has scored five touchdowns, and is averaging 10.9 yards per target in a shaky offense.

A ranking of WR33 for Jordan Addison probably feels like an overreaction to Addison’s big game last week, but really, it’s simply an endorsement of a talented and criminally underrated player. Addison has scored a touchdown in three of his last four games. He’s averaging 10.4 yards per target. He has a 64% catch rate even though his average depth of target is a hefty 14.6 yards. Addison is a baller, and last week’s eruption was no fluke.

Even with Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins missing time due to injuries, Tank Dell is tied for WR49 in half-point PPR fantasy points per game. But Dell has an attractive matchup against a Jacksonville pass defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points and fourth-most receiving yards to wide receivers. Dell only has two touchdowns this year, but he scored a touchdown in each of his two games against the Jaguars last season.

D.J. Moore was WR42 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring going into Week 12, but then he had 7-106-1 against the Vikings to finish WR4 on the week. That performance didn’t alleviate all of my concerns about Moore. Bears QB Caleb Williams threw a season-high 47 passes last week, and only seven of them went to Moore. That’s a 14.9% target share. It helps that Moore has been catching everything that comes his way lately, snagging 14-of-14 targets over the last two weeks. But this week’s matchup is worrisome. I think the Bears are going to struggle against the Lions, who have the lowest opponent passer rating in the league. Detroit doesn’t do all that well against slot receivers, but they’ve done well against perimeter receivers. I’m just not feeling it with D.J. Moore this week and have him ranked WR36, well below consensus.

TIGHT ENDS

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I’m ranking Dallas Goedert as a low-end TE1 based on the assumption that DeVonta Smith will miss another game with a hamstring injury. If indeed Smith remains out, Goedert will have an enhanced target outlook against a Ravens defense that’s given up the 11th-most fantasy points to tight ends. It didn’t work out for Goedert last week with Smith out of the lineup. Goedert had four catches for 19 yards. But the Eagles’ offense has been flying high, and Goedert should be a good bet for at least a half-dozen targets from Jalen Hurts.

Zach Ertz has had six catches and a touchdown in each of his last two games. One of the things that appeals to me about Ertz this week is that with Austin Ekeler out with a concussion, Ertz might have a monopoly on Jayden Daniels‘ short-area throws this week against the Titans. Ertz checks in at TE15 in the rankings.

I don’t hate Mark Andrews‘ Week 13 outlook as much as a TE18 ranking suggests. But two reasons why I’m not that excited, either: (1) Andrews has seen five or fewer targets in all but one game this season, and (2) Andrews has a tough matchup against a red-hot Eagles defense that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points, fourth-fewest receiving yards and fifth-fewest receptions to tight ends.

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Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (Week 13)

Fitz’s Week 13 Fantasy Football Rankings & Tiers

QUARTERBACKS

RUNNING BACKS

WIDE RECEIVERS

TIGHT ENDS

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