Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (Week 12)

These six-team bye weeks are rough, as you’re well aware. And, uh, I hate to complain as someone who loves the NFL product and whose job is NFL-adjacent, but would it be possible to have these by weeks earlier in the season, Mr. Goodell?

Fantasy football is great for the NFL. And even though it took a while, the NFL has embraced fantasy football. (Do any of you fellow oldsters remember how the NFL used to pointedly ignore fantasy football back in the 1990s? Ah, the good ol’ days.)

Since fantasy is good for business, maybe the NFL could throw us a bone and move up the bye weeks next year. Not only do we have a six-team bye week now, in Week 12, a critical week for fantasy managers jockeying for playoff position, but we also get a six-team bye week in Week 14, the final week of the regular season in most fantasy leagues.

That stinks.

Obviously, the league isn’t going to shake up its schedule for the benefit of us fantasy nerds. But wouldn’t it be more fair to the NFL teams themselves to bunch bye weeks together in the middle of the season?

The Lions and the Chargers had the first byes way back in Week 5. I’m guessing those teams weren’t eager to get a break so early. Seems like it would be more advantageous for a playoff-bound team to have a Week 14 bye to give banged-up players a physical and metal respite right before the stretch run.

I’m told by a reliable source that this article is the first thing Roger Goodell reads every Friday during the season, so when we no longer have to experience bye-mageddon in Weeks 12 and 14 next year … you’re welcome.

As always, feel free to use these tiered rankings as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. Beneath the tiers, I’ll offer a few brief thoughts on some of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases.

Fitz’s Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings & Tiers

QUARTERBACKS

Tier 1

Jalen Hurts
Lamar Jackson
Justin Herbert

Tier 2

Jayden Daniels
Brock Purdy
Bo Nix
Jared Goff
Kyler Murray
Patrick Mahomes
Tua Tagovailoa

Tier 3

Baker Mayfield
Jordan Love
Geno Smith
Matthew Stafford
Anthony Richardson
Drake Maye
C.J. Stroud

Tier 4

Sam Darnold
Caleb Williams
Tommy DeVito
Russell Wilson
Jameis Winston

Tier 5

Will Levis
Gardner Minshew
Cooper Rush
Bryce Young

Rookie Bo Nix is close to being a slam-dunk, every-week starter. And with six teams on bye this week, he’s undoubtedly starting for a lot of fantasy teams this week. Nix is averaging 6.4 yards per pass attempt, which isn’t that good. But let’s look at how that has evolved. Over his first four games, Nix averaged 4.8 yards per attempt. Over his last seven games, Nix has averaged 7.4 yards per attempt. Nix had four interceptions in his first two games. He’s thrown only two interceptions in his last nine games. He’s completing 65.5% of his throws this season. He has 295 rushing yards and four TD runs. And don’t look now, but Nix is only six points behind Jayden Daniels in fantasy scoring for the season, and they’ve played the same amount of games. Start Nix with confidence in Week 12.

Since getting WRs Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back from injury, Matthew Stafford has thrown 10 TD passes in his last four games. His yardage totals in those contests: 279, 298, 293 and 295. Two of those games were tough matchups against Miami and Minnesota. Stafford didn’t have any TD passes against Miami, although he threw for 293 yards. Stafford torched Minnesota for 279 yards and four touchdowns. I don’t particularly fear Stafford’s difficult matchup against the Eagles this week as long as he has his two stud receivers at his disposal.

It was nice to see Anthony Richardson play so well last week after his short-lived benching. He completed 20-of-30 passes for 272 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions, and he delivered the goods as a runner with a pair of TD runs. I loved the plan of attack that Colts head coach Shane Steichen devised for last week’s game against the Jets. There were a lot of shorter, quicker throws for Richardson and not so many deep balls into heavy coverage. The Colts used a lot of run-pass options to capitalize on Richardson’s mobility. (Where was this approach earlier in the season?) As bullish as I am on Richardson overall, I can’t get him higher than QB15 in this week’s rankings. The Lions are a tough matchup. They’ve allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to QBs and have the lowest opponent passer rating in the league. Detroit has 14 interceptions and has allowed only seven TD passes.

RUNNING BACKS

Tier 1

Saquon Barkley
Christian McCaffrey
De’Von Achane
Joe Mixon
Derrick Henry

Tier 2

Jahmyr Gibbs
Kenneth Walker
James Conner
Kyren Williams
Jonathan Taylor
David Montgomery
Josh Jacobs

Tier 3

Tyrone Tracy
Brian Robinson Jr.
Aaron Jones
Rhamondre Stevenson
D’Andre Swift
Najee Harris
Tony Pollard

Tier 4

Kareem Hunt
Chuba Hubbard
J.K. Dobbins
Bucky Irving
Rachaad White

Tier 5

Austin Ekeler
Javonte Williams
Rico Dowdle
Nick Chubb
Jaylen Warren
Isiah Pacheco

Tier 6

Audric Estime
Raheem Mostert
Ameer Abdullah
Trey Benson
Cam Akers
Jerome Ford
Roschon Johnson
Justice Hill
Gus Edwards
Jaylen Wright

Tier 7

Zach Charbonnet
Jaleel McLaughlin
Dylan Laube
Kenneth Gainwell
Devin Singletary
Jordan Mason
Ezekiel Elliott
Blake Corum
Jonathon Brooks
Samaje Perine

Tony Pollard investors can’t be pleased that after getting workhorse usage for much of the season, Pollard had just nine carries in each of his last two games and shared snaps with Tyjae Spears. With Spears likely to be out with a concussion, Pollard could be in line for workhorse usage once again in Week 12, but he has a tough matchup against a Texans run defense that ranks second in DVOA and has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. Consider Pollard a midrange to low-end RB2.

My best guess is that the Chiefs use Isiah Pacheco lightly in his return from a major leg injury. But he’s going against a Carolina defense that’s so bad, Pacheco might be able to put up good numbers even if he only gets six or seven carries. The Panthers’ run defense ranks dead last in DVOA, has given up 17 touchdowns runs this season, and has yielded a league-high 133.9 rushing yards per game to RBs. I have Pacheco ranked RB29 and Kareem Hunt ranked RB20. I think most observers are expecting Hunt to have the bigger role for Kansas City in Pacheco’s first game back. But let’s not completely discount the possibility that the Chiefs slide Pacheco right back into the feature role he had pre-injury. He’s been wildly productive in his two seasons in Kansas City, and if the team is convinced he’s full go … well, Pacheco could pleasantly surprise us.

I’m not that worried about rookie Jonathan Brooks putting a significant dent in the workload of Chuba Hubbard, who’s been terrific this season. But I am worried about Hubbard’s skull-and-crossbones matchup with a Chiefs run defense that ranks No. 1 in DVOA and is giving up only 52.2 rushing yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry to RBs. Hubbard is a low-end RB2 this week.

Austin Ekeler has flex appeal this week despite unreliable touch volume. He’s had seven or fewer carries in six of his 10 games. And while he had eight receptions last week, that was the first time he’s had more than four catches in a game this season. But Ekeler’s matchup against the beleaguered Cowboys is a good one. Washington is a double-digit favorite, so the game script should be RB-friendly. Ekeler is obviously a pass-catching threat, and the Cowboys have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to RBs.

It seemed as if Javonte Williams had lost his status as the ranking member of the Broncos’ backfield after rookie Audric Estime out-carried him 14-1 in Week 10. But Williams out-snapped Estime 32-14 in Week 11 and led Denver with nine carries. Williams gets a friendly matchup against a Las Vegas defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to RBs. When Williams faced the Raiders back in Week 5, he had 111 yards from scrimmage, including a season-high 50 receiving yards.

It’s hard to make a compelling case that you should start Rico Dowdle, but in a six-team bye week, sometimes we’ll settle for any port in a storm. Dowdle doesn’t get heavy rushing volume. He’s only had one game this season in which he’s had more than 12 carries. Dowdle doesn’t have a TD run this season, nor does he have a run of 20 yards or longer. But Dowdle is averaging 4.3 yards per carry, and he’s a productive pass catcher who’s averaging just under three receptions a game and has three TD catches. Dowdle also has a favorable matchup against a Washington run defense that ranks 29th in DVOA. But with Dowdle playing in a sickly offense that’s scored 16 points in QB Cooper Rush’s two starts, I have Dowdle ranked outside of RB2 range at RB27.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Tier 1

Justin Jefferson
Amon-Ra St. Brown
A.J. Brown

Tier 2

Tyreek Hill
Puka Nacua
Cooper Kupp
Terry McLaurin
Nico Collins
D.K. Metcalf
Mike Evans

Tier 3

CeeDee Lamb
Ladd McConkey
Zay Flowers
Deebo Samuel Sr.
Courtland Sutton
Jauan Jennings
Malik Nabers
George Pickens
Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Tier 4

Jameson Williams
Jayden Reed
Calvin Ridley
Marvin Harrison Jr.
DeVonta Smith

Tier 5

DeAndre Hopkins
Jaylen Waddle
Quentin Johnston
Tank Dell
Josh Downs
D.J. Moore
Jakobi Meyers
Jerry Jeudy
Cedric Tillman

Tier 6

Christian Watson
Rome Odunze
Jordan Addison
Wan’Dale Robinson
Romeo Doubs
Xavier Worthy
Keenan Allen

Tier 7

Michael Pittman Jr.
DeMario Douglas
Elijah Moore
Tyler Lockett
Rashod Bateman
Ricky Pearsall
Joshua Palmer
Noah Brown
Jalen Coker
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

Tier 8

Jalen McMillan
Michael Wilson
Xavier Legette
Demarcus Robinson
Alec Pierce
Darius Slayton
Devaughn Vele
Adam Thielen
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Kayshon Boutte
Kendrick Bourne
Dontayvion Wicks
Tre Tucker
Adonai Mitchell

Chargers rookie Ladd McConkey has entered auto-start territory. McConkey is averaging 87.5 receiving yards over his last four games, and he’s averaging 18.4 yards per catch over that stretch. The shifty McConkey could feast on the Ravens’ leaky pass defense on Monday night.

The 49ers’ Jauan Jennings has averaged 111.8 receiving yards in his four starts this season, with no fewer than 88 yards in any of those games. He’s a must-start this week vs. the Packers.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba investors were excited when JSN had seven catches for 180 yards and two touchdowns against the Rams in Week 10, but that was with D.K. Metcalf out with a minor knee injury. Could Smith-Njigba produce once Metcalf came back? JSN had turned in lackluster performances in all but one of the games he’d played with Metcalf this season — the exception being a 12-117-0 performance back in Week 2. Well, mission accomplished. Smith-Njigba caught 10-of-11 targets for 110 yards last week against the 49ers. The recent surge is what we’ve been hoping to get from a guy who had 95 catches and 1,600 yards as a 19-year-old sophomore at Ohio State while sharing targets with Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. I’m buying what looks like a Year 2 breakout for JSN and have him ranked WR19 this week vs. Arizona.

It seemed inevitable that Marvin Harrison Jr. would become the Cardinals’ go-to receiver after they selected him fourth overall in this year’s NFL Draft. But Harrison is averaging six targets a game and hasn’t drawn more than seven targets in any game since Week 3. Cardinals TE Trey McBride has more targets than Harrison this year and has played one fewer game. Harrison has been used as more of a designated lid-lifter. His average depth of target is 14 yards, and he’s averaging 15.1 yards per catch. The big-play potential is nice, but you tend to get a wide range of outcomes with receivers who have such a high average depth of target and modest target counts. Maybe we’ll see a late-season surge for the talented Harrison, but I can’t get him any higher than WR23 in my rankings this week even in a potential shootout with the Seahawks.

D.J. Moore had seven catches for 62 yards last week in Thomas Brown’s first game as the Bears’ interim offensive coordinator. The problem is that the Bears’ passing game was seriously nerfed, with Caleb Williams making quick throws within a few yards of the line of scrimmage and not throwing downfield. I worry that Moore doesn’t have much of a ceiling if we continue to see an alarming lack of verticality in the Bears’ passing game. Moore should be regarded as no more than a midrange WR3.

If a wide receiver who specializes in big plays goes against a pass defense that gives up big plays by the truckload, we have to play him, right? The Chargers’ Quentin Johnston is averaging 16.1 yards per catch and 9.6 yards per target, and he’s going up against a Ravens defense that’s been getting clobbered by wide receivers all year. Baltimore has given up a league-high 2,084 receiving yards to wide receivers, and they’re tied with the Texans for most TD catches allowed to wide receivers with 16. The Ravens have yielded 50 receptions of 20 or more yards. Johnston profiles as a high-end WR3 this week. Get him into your lineup.

Let’s not get carried away with enthusiasm for Xavier Worthy after he had four catches for 61 yards and a touchdown last week against the Bills. Before last week, Worthy had topped 40 receiving yards twice in nine games. He’s averaging 4.8 targets a game, and his target competition has gotten stiffer with the Chiefs’ acquisition of DeAndre Hopkins and the recent return of JuJu Smith-Schuster from injury. I have Worthy ranked WR39.

TIGHT ENDS

Tier 1

Brock Bowers
Travis Kelce
George Kittle
Trey McBride

Tier 2

Cade Otton
David Njoku
Will Dissly
Hunter Henry
Jonnu Smith
Sam LaPorta

Tier 3

T.J. Hockenson
Dallas Goedert
Mark Andrews
Tucker Kraft
Zach Ertz

Tier 4

Ja’Tavion Sanders
Cole Kmet
Dalton Schultz
Theo Johnson
Pat Freiermuth

Tier 5

Noah Gray
Luke Schoonmaker
A.J. Barner
Isaiah Likely
Austin Hooper
Josh Oliver
Chig Okonkwo

It seems to be Will Dissly Appreciation Week in the fantasy community. The enthusiasm is palpable. Since the Chargers emerged from their Week 5 bye, Dissly has racked up 26 catches for 267 yards, and he scored his first touchdown of the season last week. I don’t want to overhype a slow tight end who’s averaging 9.5 yards per catch, but Dissly draws targets when he’s on the field, and he has a favorable schedule down the stretch. That includes this week’s matchup with the Ravens, who have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to TEs. In a six-team bye week, Dissly qualifies as a midrange TE1.

While everyone is quietly celebrating Will Dissly, Jonnu Smith has quietly averaged six catches and 79 receiving yards a game since Week 5 — and that includes games that QB Tua Tagovailoa missed with a concussion. Jonnu checks in at TE8 in this week’s rankings, and there’s a case to be made that he’s a better Week 12 bet than Dissly.

T.J. Hockenson’s snap share has been between 45% and 48% in his first three games back from his knee injury. Fellow Vikings TE Josh Oliver has played more snaps than Hockenson over that stretch. In fact, over the last three weeks, Josh Oliver is TE14 in fantasy scoring, and Hockenson is TE23. Hockenson’s matchup with the Bears this week is average at best. I’m slotting him at TE11, which puts me a few spots below consensus.

Dallas Goedert has averaged 9.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game in his first two games back from injury, but he’s done it on only eight targets. He has a promising matchup this Sunday against a Rams defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends. But the Eagles aren’t throwing very much — QB Jalen Hurts is averaging 21.8 pass attempts per game since the start of October — and Goedert has to share targets with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Consider Goedert a back-end TE1.