Summer hubris is one of the funniest things about fantasy football.
Every July and August, we fantasy managers are confident we have a handle on how things will play out in the NFL regular season. And by mid-November every year, our heads are spinning over some of the bizarre twists and turns the season has taken.
Two months ago, it would have been unfathomable that in Week 11 we’d be debating whether to start …
- Patrick Mahomes or Bo Nix
- CeeDee Lamb or Cedric Tillman
- D.J. Moore or Quentin Johnston
- Travis Etienne Jr. or Audric Estime
- Jake Ferguson or Will Dissly
Kareem Hunt was a street free agent in September. Now he’s a weekly must-start.
Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins were both unusable fantasy assets a month ago. Now they’re being ranked as top-25 receivers.
Tyreek Hill is averaging fewer fantasy points per game than Jameson Williams and Khalil Shakir. Caleb Williams is the fourth-best rookie quarterback. Justin Tucker is no longer automatic on kicks.
The fantasy football landscape is ever-changing. Most fantasy managers are guilty of summer hubris (including yours truly). Surprises are inevitable, and some are completely mind-blowing.
The lesson in all of this — to the extent that there is one — is to keep a loose hold on your priors. There’s no shame in failing to expect the unexpected. What’s important is keeping tabs on emerging trends and doing a reasonably good job of figuring out what’s real and what’s illusory.
We’re not in August anymore. Grab a jacket and come dive into Week 11 with me.
Feel free to use these tiered rankings as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. Beneath the tiers, I’ll offer a few brief thoughts on some of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases.
Fitz’s Week 11 Fantasy Football Rankings & Tiers
QUARTERBACKS
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
- Jordan Love
- Bo Nix
- Justin Herbert
- Jared Goff
- Patrick Mahomes
- Tua Tagovailoa
- Sam Darnold
- Jameis Winston
- Matthew Stafford
- Russell Wilson
- Drake Maye
Tier 4
Tier 5
The Dolphins’ offense is still a fun watch, and I personally think that since returning from a concussion, Tua Tagovailoa has looked like pretty much the same quarterback who led the NFL in passing yardage in 2023. My only concern is that Tua isn’t throwing deep as often as he used to. He’s averaging 5.8 air yards per pass attempt, according to Pro Football Reference. Tua has never averaged under 7.0 air yards per attempt in any other season. It could be part of a concerted effort to protect Tua from taking hits — get the ball out faster, dump the ball off to running backs more often. But I still feel pretty good about betting on an accurate passer who has some great weapons and a ton of speed at his disposal. I’m ranking Tua QB12 this week in a home game against the Raiders.
Other people are higher on Russell Wilson this week than I am. He has a juicy matchup against a Ravens pass defense that has allowed the most passing yardage and second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Wilson has been sharp in his three starts, averaging 8.7 yards per attempt and throwing a touchdown pass on 7.1% of his pass attempts. Those numbers seem destined to regress. Wilson’s career high in yards per attempt was 8.3 way back in 2015. I also worry about Wilson’s passing volume. The Steelers are the second run-heaviest team in the league, running the ball on 53.3% of their offensive snaps. Wilson has thrown fewer than 30 passes in all three of his starts. I see him as more of a high-end QB2 for Week 11 than a QB1.
Never mind that C.J. Stroud is probably getting WR Nico Collins back from a hamstring injury and has an appealing matchup against a Dallas defense that has yielded the fifth-most fantasy points to QBs. I still have no desire to play Stroud when his offensive line has been awful for the last month. Over his last four games, Stroud has two touchdown passes. He’s completed 53.7% of his passes over that stretch and has averaged 198.5 passing yards per game and 6.6 yards per attempt. He’s been sacked 18 times over his last four games and has constantly been under duress. I have Stroud ranked QB18, well below consensus.
RUNNING BACKS
Tier 1
- Christian McCaffrey
- Saquon Barkley
- Joe Mixon
- Bijan Robinson
- Alvin Kamara
- Derrick Henry
- Kyren Williams
- De’Von Achane
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- Jonathan Taylor
- Kenneth Walker
- Breece Hall
Tier 2
- Josh Jacobs
- Kareem Hunt
- Aaron Jones
- David Montgomery
- James Cook
- Chase Brown
- J.K. Dobbins
- D’Andre Swift
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- Nick Chubb
Tier 3
Tier 4
- Alexander Mattison
- Austin Ekeler
- Tank Bigsby
- Tyler Allgeier
- Javonte Williams
- Raheem Mostert
- Tyjae Spears
- Gus Edwards
Tier 5
- Cordarrelle Patterson
- Jerome Ford
- Justice Hill
- Roschon Johnson
- Braelon Allen
- Jordan Mason
- Cam Akers
- Zach Charbonnet
- Jaylen Wright
- Khalil Herbert
- Kenneth Gainwell
- Ezekiel Elliott
- Jaleel McLaughlin
- Samaje Perine
- Zamir White
Aaron Jones investors got a scare last week when Jones took a shot to the ribs and was carted off the field. But Jones says the only reason he was carted off was because the X-ray machine in Jacksonville was at the far end of the stadium. He’s good to go for Week 11, and I’m ranking him as a high-end RB2. He’s facing a pretty solid Titans defense, although Tennessee has given up 12 touchdowns to RBs in nine games. Jones has been a consistent performer, posting double-digit point totals (0.5 PPR) in six of his last seven games.
D’Andre Swift is the only member of the Chicago Bears you can still feel OK about starting in fantasy football. And note that I said “OK,” not “good.” The Bears’ offense has gone 23 straight possessions without scoring a touchdown. In the two games since coming out of the bye, Swift has averaged 3.4 yards per carry and has been held under 60 rushing yards in both games. Chicago’s offensive line is bad and banged up. And while the Packers have long been considered a great matchup for RBs, the reality is that the Green Bay run defense ranks a respectable 14th in DVOA and has given up the 13th fewest fantasy points to RBs. You can start D’Andre Swift this week, but if you have the luxury of considering other reasonable options, you might want to go in a different direction.
Since coming back from the gruesome leg injury he sustained early last season, Nick Chubb has averaged 2.7 yards per carry over three games. But Chubb has gotten 16 and 15 carries in his last two contests, and he has an exciting Week 11 matchup against a marshmallowy Saints run defense that’s giving up 5.2 yards per carry to RBs and has yielded 14 touchdown runs. Consider Chubb a low-end RB2.
Yes, it was only one game, but it certainly seems as if rookie Audric Estime has taken over early-down duties from Javonte Williams in Denver. Estime out-snapped Williams 26-16 and out-carried him 14-1 last week vs. the Chiefs. Williams simply hasn’t been very effective. Take away an 88-yard rushing day against a truly putrid Saints run defense, and Williams is averaging 3.37 yards per carry. He’s only topped 50 rushing yards in 3-of-10 games. Estime is a big, powerful runner who had 1,341 rushing yards and 18 TD runs in his final college season at Notre Dame. The primary drawback with Estime in fantasy is that he isn’t really a pass catcher — or at least he wasn’t asked to be one at Notre Dame. I’m ranking Estime as a high-end RB3 and will be starting him in a number of leagues this week after winning him with FAAB bids in the $10-$20 range.
Jaylen Warren is at least a viable flex option regardless of whether backfield mate Najee Harris is able to play through an ankle injury. Warren’s touch counts in his first three games back from a knee injury: 14, 11, 16. Warren faces a Baltimore defense that’s giving up only 56.8 rushing yards per game to RBs, but the Ravens have allowed the third-most receiving yards to running backs, and they probably aren’t going to do any better against pass-catching RBs if safety Kyle Hamilton misses this game with an ankle injury. Warren’s pass-catching ability gives him a cushion this week if he isn’t able to do much business on the ground.
Take another look at this week’s RB tiers. Beyond Tier 3, all bets are off. Raheem Mostert is a perfect example of an unappealing Tier 4 option. Mostert had zero carries against the Rams on Monday night and played nine snaps — one fewer than rookie Jaylen Wright. Mostert did have two catches for 34 yards, and Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel claims Mostert’s light usage was “unique to the game plan.” But De’Von Achane is clearly the lead back in Miami, and it looks as if Mostert is now splitting backup work with Wright. Mostert hasn’t been the primary goal-line back and has scored two touchdowns in six games. He isn’t a good fantasy option even in a favorable home matchup against the Raiders.
Gus Edwards raised eyebrows last week by rushing 10 times for 55 yards last week in his first action since Week 4. Just realize that Edwards played only 15 snaps — a 25% snap share. Consider Edwards more of a handcuff to J.K. Dobbins than a running back who offers stand-alone value.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 4
- Garrett Wilson
- Terry McLaurin
- Jayden Reed
- D.K. Metcalf
- Drake London
- CeeDee Lamb
- Calvin Ridley
- Davante Adams
- Zay Flowers
Tier 5
- Cedric Tillman
- Courtland Sutton
- Jauan Jennings
- Darnell Mooney
- DeAndre Hopkins
- DeVonta Smith
- Jaylen Waddle
Tier 6
- Tank Dell
- Jakobi Meyers
- Jameson Williams
- Ladd McConkey
- Khalil Shakir
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Jerry Jeudy
- Amari Cooper
- Brian Thomas Jr.
Tier 7
- D.J. Moore
- Quentin Johnston
- Jordan Addison
- Josh Downs
- Romeo Doubs
- Elijah Moore
- Ricky Pearsall
- Keenan Allen
- Rashod Bateman
- Tyler Lockett
Tier 8
- Christian Watson
- JuJu Smith-Schuster
- Diontae Johnson
- Rome Odunze
- Noah Brown
- Michael Pittman Jr.
- Alec Pierce
- Mike Williams
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling
- DeMario Douglas
- Xavier Worthy
- Dontayvion Wicks
- Joshua Palmer
- Calvin Austin III
- Ray-Ray McCloud
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
- Demarcus Robinson
Calvin Ridley has frustrated a lot of fantasy managers over the years, but it might be time to welcome him back into the circle of trust. Over the last three weeks, Ridley has had 20 catches for 300 yards and two touchdowns on 32 targets. He’s been WR5 in half-point PPR fantasy points per game over that span. It’s worth noting that two of those three games came against good defenses — the Chargers and Lions. And Ridley has been doing it without elevated team passing volume. The Titans have averaged 31.3 passing attempts over Ridley’s three-game surge. His target share over Tennessee’s last three games is a beefy 34%. Ridley is back to being an alpha receiver, and this week he has a matchup with a Minnesota defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
Zay Flowers is probably an auto-start in all but extremely shallow fantasy leagues. He’s has gone over 100 receiving yards in four of his last six games. But we’ve seen a dip in his targets lately. Flowers is never going to be an Antonio Brown-type target monster, but Flowers saw nine or more targets in four of the Ravens’ first six games. His target counts over Baltimore’s last four games: 1, 12, 6, 6. The 12-target game was immediately before the Dionte Johnson trade. Johnson has played only 22 snaps in his first two games with Baltimore, but Ravens head coach John Harbaugh says the team is going to ramp up Johnson’s usage. The Ravens have also gotten TE Mark Andrews more involved lately after his quiet start to the season. Flowers is a fine player. I just wonder if he’s about to get caught in a target squeeze.
In Jameis Winston‘s first two starts of the season for the Browns, Cedric Tillman has had 13 catches for 176 yards and three touchdowns on 20 targets. Tillman was WR4 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring over those two weeks. We could be seeing a breakout for an exciting young player, enabled by a much-needed changing of the guard at quarterback. Tillman’s matchup this week against the Saints is a good one — there’s no more Marshon Lattimore to worry about. Just one word of caution: It isn’t only Tillman who’s benefitting from the QB change. Here’s the target distribution for the Cleveland wide receivers over the first two Winston starts: Elijah Moore 21, Tillman 20, Jerry Jeudy 19. Winston has thrown 41 and 46 passes in his first two starts, so there have been plenty of targets to go around. Just don’t assume Tillman is going to see double-digit targets on a weekly basis, since Winston isn’t going to throw 40-plus passes every week.
With Brandon Aiyuk out for the year, Jauan Jennings has stepped into Aiyuk’s role as the 49ers’ primary downfield receiver, and he’s been providing the same high level of efficiency that Aiyuk normally provides. Jennings has caught 68.1% of his targets this season and is averaging 10.4 yards per target. He played 91% of the 49ers’ offensive snaps last week and finished with 7-93-0 on 11 targets. Start Jennings without hesitation.
In the time since Davante Adams played his last game for the Raiders, Jakobi Meyers has averaged 9.3 targets, 6.3 catches and 69.5 catches a game, with at least five catches in each of those four games. The Raiders’ passing game isn’t particularly attractive, whether it’s Gardner Minshew or (shudder) Desmond Ridder at quarterback. But the Raiders have only two viable pass catchers: Meyers and TE Brock Bowers. That’s it. Meyers isn’t a star, but he offers a safe fantasy floor, which might be appealing to a lot of fantasy managers in a four-team bye week with a lot of wide receivers hurt.
Perhaps no receiver has a wider range of potential outcomes for Week 11 than Detroit’s Jameson Williams. On one hand, Williams has an attractive matchup against a Jacksonville defense that’s been beaten up by receivers this season, Williams is a dangerous big-play threat who’s averaging 20.7 yards per catch. On the other hand, Williams hasn’t drawn more than five targets in any of his last five games. The Lions are 13.5-point home favorites against the Jaguars, and we know the Lions are happy to take the air out of the ball and batter opponents with the running game if they can. Lions QB Jared Goff has thrown 25 or fewer passes in six games this season, and there have been two games in which he threw fewer than 20 passes. We could see Williams have two or three huge plays on Sunday, or we could see him draw just a couple of targets and finish with 12 receiving yards.
When we last saw Jaxon Smith-Njigba before Seattle’s Week 10 bye, he was churning out 180 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Rams. But D.K. Metcalf missed that game with a knee injury and seems likely to return this week. Smith-Njigba has topped 51 receiving yards in just one of the seven games Metcalf has played this season. I’m cautiously optimistic that JSN is ready for liftoff, but until I see him consistently produce while sharing a field with Metcalf, I’ll be ranking him as a WR3.
Yes, Cedric Tillman is an enticing fantasy option for Week 11, but Browns WR Jerry Jeudy is playable, too. In Jameis Winston‘s two starts for Cleveland, Jeudy has produced 5-79-0 on eight targets and 7-73-0 on 11 targets. Jeudy faces a New Orleans defense that has allowed the third-most receiving yards to WRs.
The Colts are right to reinsert Anthony Richardson at quarterback and return sack-prone, interception prone Joe Flacco to the bench. But the QB change bodes ill for the fantasy value of the Colts’ wide receivers. In the five complete games Richardson has played this season, he’s averaged 11.2 pass completions. I’m ranking Josh Downs WR39 this week, and I consider Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell unplayable.
TIGHT ENDS
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
- Tucker Kraft
- Evan Engram
- Mike Gesicki
- Dawson Knox
- Will Dissly
- Jonnu Smith
- Hunter Henry
- Dallas Goedert
- Sam LaPorta
Tier 4
Tier 5
- Juwan Johnson
- Foster Moreau
- Josh Oliver
- Chig Okonkwo
- Noah Gray
- Davis Allen
- Austin Hooper
- Isaiah Likely
Mark Andrews still hasn’t seen more than seven targets in a game this season, but his usage is slowly inching up, and he’s starting to regularly find the end zone. After failing to score a touchdown in his first five games, Andrews has scored five TDs in his last five games. In a bleak TE landscape for Week 11, Andrews is a midrange TE1.
With Mac Jones filling in for injured Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence, Evan Engram slides into low-end TE1 territory. Jones targeted Engram eight times last week, but Engram’s six receptions netted only 40 yards. Engram also has a tough matchup against the Lions, who have allowed the second-fewest receiving yards and second-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Dalton Kincaid (knee) hasn’t been practicing this week, and if he’s unable to play, Dalton Knox is a viable fantasy options against a Chiefs defense that has given up a league-high 698 receiving yards to tight ends.
As my colleague Derek Brown notes in this week’s installment of The Primer, Will Dissly has had a 21.3% target share and 22.9% first-read share since Week 6, averaging 1.70 yards per route run over those five games. Dissly faces a Bengals defense that has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. He’s a viable streaming option.
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