A fantasy team’s fortunes can take abrupt turns, whether for good or ill.
In one of my home leagues, I was cruising along at 4-1 with what I believed to be a championship-caliber roster. Then I lost Nico Collins, Mike Evans and Stefon Diggs to injuries in the span of a few weeks. Now, that team is 5-4, and I’m hoping I can stumble into the playoffs.
In another home league, I seemingly whiffed at QB (Trevor Lawrence/Justin Herbert) and TE (Mark Andrews) in the draft, and I lost the “hero” in my hero-RB build, Isiah Pacheco, to a major leg injury. That team seemed doomed. But I landed Brock Purdy in a trade, Andrews has perked up, and Bucky Irving and Rico Dowdle have helped me stay afloat (barely) at RB. That team is somehow 6-3 and in solid playoff position.
Fantasy football is like Texas hold’em, where you start with two cards, and the strength of your hand can change dramatically based on the five community cards that follow.
You might be dealt a pair of aces — the strongest possible starting hand — and feel great about your chances. But then the next three cards (the “flop,” in hold’em parlance) can miss you completely and make a flush or a straight for an opponent with a vastly inferior starting hand.
Fantasy football and Texas hold’em are not static games. They’re dynamic games in which the circumstances are always changing and we have to continually reassess where we stand in relation to our opponents.
We have five weeks to go before the playoffs begin in most fantasy leagues. Here’s hoping the board runs out well for you down the stretch.
Feel free to use these tiered rankings as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. Beneath the tiers, I’ll offer a few brief thoughts on some of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases.
Fitz’s Week 10 Rankings & Tiers
QUARTERBACKS
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 4
Tier 5
Tier 6
Over the first four weeks of the season, Justin Herbert averaged 144.5 passing yards a game. Over his last four games, he’s nearly doubled that with 286.8 passing yards a game. Herbert averaged 22.8 pass attempts per game over those first four games; he’s averaged 33 attempts over the last four. Herbert was reportedly dealing with a plantar fascia injury early in the season, but he seems healthy now and has looked terrific. I’m ranking him as a low-end QB1 this week in a home matchup against a Titans defense that’s probably going to be without cornerback L’Jarius Sneed (quad) again.
Daniel Jones has a great matchup against the Panthers, who have the second-worst opponent passer rating in the league and are giving up 8.0 yards per pass attempt. Carolina has allowed 18 touchdown passes, tied for third-most in the league. Jones has produced more than 200 passing yards in five of his last seven games and adds value as a runner. Consider him a high-end QB2 in what looks like a nice spot.
It’s not clear if the Texans are getting Nico Collins back from his hamstring injury for their Sunday-night game against the Lions. If they don’t, C.J. Stroud will be unplayable in 1QB leagues. Stroud has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in three of the four games Collins has missed. He’s only averaging one TD pass a game over that stretch, and the Texans’ offensive line has completely fallen apart over the last month. In the Texans’ most recent game, the Jets sacked Stroud eight times. I have Stroud ranked QB23. Even if Collins plays, I’ll only have Stroud ranked as a high-end or midrange QB2.
In the three games Drake Maye has started and finished, he’s averaged 241.6 passing yards, 2.0 TD passes and 50.3 rushing yards. On paper, he has a bad matchup against the Bears, who have allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. But the Bears seem as if they might be collapsing. I have Maye ranked QB21, but that might be too conservative a ranking, and I think he’s playable if you’re in a pinch at quarterback.
RUNNING BACKS
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 4
Tier 5
Tier 6
Over his last five games, Tony Pollard is averaging 106.4 yards from scrimmage. He’s been running effectively and making contributions as a pass catcher, with at least two receptions in every game this season. Yes, Pollard has a tough matchup against a Chargers defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs, but Pollard has become a true workhorse, so I don’t think a midrange RB2 ranking is unreasonable. Unless you play in a shallow league, Pollard should probably be in your starting lineup.
Najee Harris has run for over 100 yards in three consecutive games — coinciding with Jaylen Warren‘s return from a knee injury three weeks ago. It doesn’t matter much that Najee shares work with Warren since the Steelers are running the ball at the second-highest rate in the league. Najee has had 21 and 19 carries in his last two games. This week, Najee faces a Washington defense that has given up 366 rushing yards over its last two games. The Commanders’ run defense has slipped since losing DT Jonathan Allen to a torn pec a few weeks ago. Regard Najee as a midrange RB2 this week.
Chuba Hubbard investors shouldn’t panic about the NFL debut of Jonathan Brooks. Yes, Brooks is a talented prospect, but the Panthers have no incentive to give him substantial work considering that (1) he’s returning from a major knee injury, (2) the Panthers have no playoff aspirations, and (3) Hubbard has been terrific this season. Hubbard has had at least 17 touches in seven straight games and has scored six touchdowns over that stretch. He’s averaging 5.0 yards per carry and has a superb 57.9% rushing success rate, according to Pro Football Reference. Oh, and by the way, the Panthers rewarded Hubbard with a four-year, $33.2 million contract extension on Thursday. Start him with confidence this week against the Giants.
Rhamondre Stevenson has scored four touchdowns in his last two games and has a Week 10 matchup against a Bears run defense that ranks 30th in DVOA. But Stevenson is averaging just 2.2 yards per carry over his last three games while running behind an offensive line that PFF has graded dead last in run blocking. The Patriots’ lead back is a solid play this week but perhaps not a smash play in light of New England’s blocking issues.
Rico Dowdle is an interesting case this week. With Ezekiel Elliott held out by the Cowboys last week for either missing or showing up late for team activities, Dowdle had a season-high 71% snap share last week against the Falcons. He had 17 touches and 107 yards from scrimmage, plus a juggling TD catch. You’d think the Cowboys would be ready to turn this backfield over to Dowdle, and maybe Dowdle will get 20 or more touches on Sunday if the Cowboys try to hide backup QB Cooper Rush against the Eagles. On the other hand, the Dallas offense is much less potent with Dak Prescott out of commission with a hamstring injury. I have Dowdle ranked as a high-end RB3.
The Chiefs have been a skull-and-crossbones matchup for running backs. They’re allowing 50.9 rushing yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry to RBs. Kansas City has given up three touchdowns to running backs in eight games. I would be reluctant to start Broncos RB Javonte Williams against the Chiefs. Williams has produced fewer than 50 rushing yards in three of his last four games. He catches some passes, but he’s averaging 24 receiving yards per game, which means he probably won’t be able to salvage a decent fantasy point total if he can’t get anything going on the ground against a top run defense. Fade Javonte.
This might be a good week to sit Tank Bigsby. He has a hellish matchup against a Vikings run defense that ranks No. 1 in DVOA. With three receptions all year, Bigsby doesn’t offer an alternative path to fantasy success with his pass catching. And the Jacksonville offense could be stuck in first gear if starting QB Trevor Lawrence is out with a shoulder injury and the Jaguars have to turn to backup Mac Jones. It’s also a good week to sit Travis Etienne, who returned from a hamstring injury last week and had 3-24-0 rushing and 2-6-0 receiving. Etienne is just a passing down-back now. Being a passing-down back for a bad team that’s going to be facing a lot of negative game scripts could result in some big receiving games, but we can’t count on double-digit touches for Etienne in any given week.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 4
Tier 5
Tier 6
Tier 7
Tier 8
DeAndre Hopkins may well be running a lot of his routes into the airtight coverage of Broncos CB Patrick Surtain Jr. on Sunday, but Hopkins isn’t going to be running every route against Surtain, and I don’t want to leave Hopkins on my bench now that he’s clearly Patrick Mahomes‘ top wide receiver. Hopkins had eight catches for 86 yards and two touchdowns on nine targets vs. the Buccaneers on Monday night. Sure, the Buccaneers are a much easier matchup than the Broncos. But I think Hopkins is going to have seven or eight targets in his back pocket every game from here on out, with the possibility of 10 or more targets in any given contest.
Hang in there, Jaylen Waddle stakeholders. This could be the week that your investment finally pays off. We had Jacob Gibbs of CBS as a guest on our rankings shows this week, and Jacob made some terrific points about Waddle. Jacob pointed out that since 2020, no college receiver has surpassed Waddle in yards per route run. He was the sixth overall draft pick in 2021. Waddle has begun his NFL career with three straight 1,000-yard seasons. Yes, his numbers have been bitterly disappointing. But the Miami passing game was completely broken while Tua Tagovailoa was recovering from a concussion, and Miami’s receivers have faced tricky matchups in three of the four games Tua has played. Two of those games were against the Bills, who have one of the lowest WR target rates and one of the highest RB target rates in the NFL. One of the other Tua games was against the Cardinals, whose defense has the lowest first-read target rate in the league. The Cardinals also have one of the highest low-box rates in the league. They want to take away the big play and invite you to run the ball and throw to your running backs. The other Tua game was against the Jaguars in Week 1, when Waddle had five catches for 109 yards. Get Waddle into your lineups against a Rams defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
Khalil Shakir has 22 catches for 222 yards over his last three games. A paragon of efficiency, Shakir has caught 93.3% of his targets this season and is averaging 2.53 yards per route run (a freakishly high number). The Bills could be without rookie WR Keon Coleman (wrist), which could enhance Shakir’s target outlook. I’m ranking Shakir as a high-end WR3, and that might be too conservative.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is extremely talented, but his rookie year has been a roller-coaster ride. He’s scored five touchdowns and has had two 100-yard games. But Harrison has been held under 50 receiving yards in six of his nine games. He’s averaging 6.1 targets per game, and he’s only had double-digit targets once this season. I’m not betting on Harrison to have a big game against the Jets and their dynamic CB duo of Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed.
This is difficult for me to say as a longtime D.J. Moore advocate, but I think it’s fine to leave Moore on your bench this week. He’s had fewer than 35 receiving yards in four of his last five games. Moore was a vocal advocate of former Bears QB Justin Fields and doesn’t seem to be on the same page with rookie QB Caleb Williams. Nor does Moore seem to be on the same page with Bears head coach Matt Eberflus. Moore was interviewed by a Chicago sports radio station earlier this week and was asked if Eberflus has lost the locker room. Moore’s reply: “I won’t say no.” The vibes are bad these days with Moore and with the Bears in general. Moore is a terrific receiver, but don’t feel compelled to play him.
Quentin Johnston hasn’t seen more than six targets in a game this season, and some of his biggest plays this season have come on busted coverages, so by no means is he a safe fantasy option for Week 10. On the other hand, Johnston has scored four touchdowns in six games, and it’s encouraging that his catch rate is 66.7% this year, 10 percentage points higher than it was in 2023. I’m not sure if we can call this a year-two breakout yet, but it’s been a significant improvement over QJ’s disastrous rookie season. With the Chargers’ passing volume way up over the last month, Johnston is a viable option this week against a Titans defense that has been without top CB L’Jarius Sneed due to a quad injury. I’m ranking Johnston as a high-end WR4.
With Adam Thielen unlikely to return from his hamstring injury this week against the Giants in Germany, two rookie WRs for the Panthers, Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker, are viable fantasy options. Legette, the No. 32 overall pick in this year’s draft, has scored a TD in four of his last six games. His yardage totals haven’t been exciting, but he’s had four receptions in each of his last two games and had an 83% snap share last week vs. the Saints. Coker, an undrafted free agent, should have the slot-receiver role to himself this week with Thielen apparently not ready to return and Jonathan Mingo traded to the Cowboys earlier this week. It’s worth remembering that as Young’s primary slot receiver in 2023, Thielen was WR10 in PPR fantasy scoring over the first 11 weeks of the season, averaging 9.7 targets and 7.6 catches per game. The Giants aren’t a bad matchup for Carolina’s young receivers this week, but it’s worth noting that the Giants haven’t given up a 100-yard game to a wide receiver all season, even though they’ve gone up against Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, D.K. Metcalf, George Pickens, Amari Cooper, and Terry McLaurin (twice).
Sterling Shepard‘s final receiving stats from the Buccaneers’ Week 9 loss to the Chiefs weren’t great — 4-48-0 receiving on five targets — but he got more heavily involved as the game went on, and he added two carries for 21 yards. Shepard has always been a good player; he’s just had difficulty staying healthy. With Chris Godwin and Mike Evans on the shelf, and with Jalen McMillan‘s status uncertain after being out last week with a hamstring injury, Shepard could offer a sturdy usage floor this week vs. the 49ers.
TIGHT ENDS
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 4
Tier 5
T.J. Hockenson had a training-wheels game last week in his return from a major knee injury. He played 45% of the Vikings’ offensive snaps and had 3-27-0 on four targets. Expect a bigger role for Hockenson this week against a Jaguars defense that has yielded the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends.
With WR Chris Olave out this week with a concussion, WR Rashid Shaheed out for the rest of the year with a torn meniscus, and RB Alvin Kamara coming off a game in which he had 35 touches, it’s possible the Saints use hybrid TE/QB/RB Taysom Hill liberally this week. Hill had 5-19-1 rushing and 4-41-0 receiving last week against the Panthers, and he had one pass attempt that fell incomplete. I’m ranking Hill as a midrange TE1.
Jake Ferguson had 7-71-0 on 10 targets last week against the Falcons, but I’m not eager to use Ferguson against the Eagles this week now that Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is on the shelf with a hamstring injury and backup QB Cooper Rush will be getting the start. Philadelphia has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. I’m slotting Ferguson at TE16 in this week’s rankings.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
