Ted Chmyz | Wed, Nov 27th 2024, 6:06am EST

Fantasy Football Points Allowed: Best & Worst Matchups (Week 13)

It’s time for Thanksgiving football. Thanks to the extra games on Thursday and Friday, not a single team is on bye this week. That means two things for this Week 13 fantasy football matchups article:

We have more options to choose from in terms of matchups to target and avoid.
No teams on bye means the bar is higher to make it into fantasy football lineups.

I will be featuring higher-caliber players in this article than I have in recent weeks. With that in mind, let’s get started with finding the best (and worst) fantasy football start sit matchups for Week 13 using the FantasyPros Fantasy Points Allowed tool.

Fantasy Points Allowed: Best & Worst Matchups (Week 13)

Week 13 Quarterback Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: C.J. Stroud (QB – HOU) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

He may have been drafted as a top-five fantasy quarterback, but C.J. Stroud has not been a QB1 for most of his sophomore season. He has finished as a top-12 weekly quarterback just three times all season. However, I like his chances of making it four this week. The Jaguars allow the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks with 23.3.

They also lead the league by a mile in expected points added (EPA) allowed per dropback at 0.33 — the Panthers are second at 0.20. The last time Stroud faced this Jaguars defense he torched them for 345 yards, two touchdowns and his only 20-point fantasy outing of the season. Especially with Nico Collins back in the Texans’ lineup, he should be due for a repeat performance.

Bad Matchup: Jared Goff (QB – DET) vs. Chicago Bears

Jared Goff is currently ranked as the QB12 in the FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR) for Week 13. That’s also exactly where he ranks in scoring so far this season — just barely squeezing into the QB1 range. However, this doesn’t set up as a week in which Goff should be trusted as your QB1. The Bears’ defense ranks as the third-toughest matchup for opposing quarterbacks, giving up just 13.2 points per game. They also rank seventh-lowest in dropback EPA per play allowed.

If we’re looking for reasons for optimism, the Bears rank closer to average with the 13th-fewest passing yards allowed per game, but they make up for it by giving up just 0.82 passing touchdowns per contest (the third-fewest in the league). To be fair, Ben Johnson could probably scheme up a productive day for Goff against just about any defense in the league. But, with the Lions 10-point favorites at home on Thanksgiving Day, he likely won’t need to. We know Detroit is happy to run up the score against outmatched opponents, but they’re more likely to do it on the ground this week, leading to a down fantasy outing from Goff.

Week 13 Running Back Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Bucky Irving/Rachaad White (RB – TB) @ Carolina Panthers

Bucky Irving and Rachaad White seem to have settled into a roughly 50/50 split in the Buccaneers’ backfield, although Sean Tucker mixed in for some short-yardage carries (including a goal-line score) in Week 12. It’s usually hard for multiple backs to have fantasy success on the same team, but there should be plenty of points to go around for Tampa’s backfield this week.

The Panthers rank first in fantasy points, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns allowed per game to opposing running backs. This isn’t just because their offense is bad — the Panthers’ defense ranks second-worst in terms of EPA per carry given up and gives up the highest rushing success rate in the league. If picking between the two backs, I give the nod to Irving, who has been much more efficient than his veteran counterpart on the ground. However, both White and Iriving are great options to have in your lineup for Week 13.

Bad Matchup: D’Andre Swift (RB – CHI) @ Detroit Lions

Through two weeks, I’ve been very impressed with how Thomas Brown has changed the Bears’ offense. However, there is one player who has been hurt by these changes: D’Andre Swift. Through two weeks, Swift is averaging a 54% snap share, a 69% running back rush share, a 32% route participation rate and a 7.6% target share with Brown calling the team’s plays.

Under Shane Waldron, those numbers were higher across the board:

58% snap share
75% running back rush share
44% route participation rate
10% target share

Swift has especially lost work near the goal line, as Roschon Johnson has handled four of the Bears’ five goal-line rushing attempts over the last two weeks. This is a terrible week for Swift’s workload to be in question, as the Lions are one of the worst possible matchups for fantasy running backs. Detroit’s defense gives up the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs and is the only team to rank in the bottom five in both rushing yards and receptions given up per game. With Swift’s declining workload and this brutal matchup, starting him is setting yourself up for a brutal holiday.

Week 13 Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI) @ Minnesota Vikings

I said in the intro that the caliber of the player I was going to feature was going to be higher … but are we so sure Marvin Harrison Jr. is a high-caliber fantasy option? He ranks just 38th in half-PPR points per game and has more weekly finishes outside the top 50 wide receivers (six) than inside the top 30 (five). For all his talent, Harrison was overdrafted as a borderline first-round fantasy option, as he has been a boom-or-bust player so far this season.

With that said, this week sets up to be a boom week. The Vikings rank second in the NFL with 33.7 fantasy points given up per game to opposing receivers. No team gives up more yards to the position. They also rank in the top five in both touchdowns and receptions allowed. Rostering Harrison has likely been a frustrating experience so far this season, but give the rookie another shot in your lineup this week when making fantasy start sit decisions.

Bad Matchup: Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS) vs. Tennessee Titans

Terry McLaurin gets a scary matchup this week with the Titans, who allow the fourth-fewest points per game to wide receivers. If this were earlier in the season, I would have said McLaurin was a must-start regardless of this tough matchup, but he (along with the rest of the Commanders’ offense) has struggled in recent weeks.

McLaurin has averaged just a 13.5% target share over the last four weeks, a far cry from his 24.1% average over the first eight games of the season. While he is coming off a big game, he was one terrible play by the Cowboys’ defense away from his second straight outing below five fantasy points. Against a Titans defense that allows the fewest yards per game to wide receivers, McLaurin may be in for another lackluster outing if he doesn’t hit on a big play.

Week 13 Tight End Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Cade Otton (TE – TB) @ Carolina Panthers

Week 12 was very discouraging for anyone relying on Cade Otton. With Mike Evans sidelined for most of Weeks 7-10, the tight end was serving as the Buccaneers’ top pass-catcher, racking up 15.6 half-PPR points per game on an elite 25% target share. Evans returned on Sunday, and Otton posted just 3.5 fantasy points on a 10% target share. However, I like Otton’s chances to bounce back this week.

With Chris Godwin out for the year, Otton should still be the Buccaneers’ second target behind Evans (who isn’t traditionally a high-volume receiver), and this is a dream matchup. The Panthers rank first in the NFL with 15.5 points per game given up to opposing tight ends — no other team is at even 13.0. They rank second to the Chiefs in both yards and receptions given up to the position but make up for it by giving up nearly a full touchdown per game (0.84) to tight ends. Expect Otton to come through with an outing more like his hot streak than his down game in Week 12, making him a top-tier TE1.

Bad Matchup: Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF) vs. San Francisco 49ers

Unsurprisingly, for a team with Fred Warner, the 49ers have been a brutal matchup for tight ends this season. They have given up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the position, but that may be underselling how bad this matchup is. San Francisco’s defense has given up just 35 yards per game to opposing tight ends, the second-lowest mark in the league.

This all sets up badly for Dalton Kincaid, who will hopefully be making his return from a knee injury to play in Week 13. For the season, he already looks like a very questionable starting option, regardless of opponent, as he ranks as the TE19 with 6.5 half-PPR points per game. In a tough matchup, with a potentially balky knee, I recommend you find someone else if you were planning on relying on the sophomore this weekend.

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.

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