Ted Chmyz | Wed, Nov 20th 2024, 6:02am EST

Fantasy Football Points Allowed: Best & Worst Matchups (Week 12)

Welcome to Week 12’s breakdown of fantasy football matchups to target and avoid at each position. We are somehow already 11 weeks into the fantasy football season. For those of you with strong records, it’s already time to start looking at matchups for the fantasy football playoffs.

For the rest of us, it’s more important than ever to put yourself in the best position to succeed every single week. With that in mind, we can find the best (and worst) fantasy football start sit matchups for Week 12 using the FantasyPros Fantasy Points Allowed tool. Let’s get started.

Fantasy Points Allowed: Best & Worst Matchups (Week 12)

Week 12 Quarterback Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Justin Herbert (QB – LAC) vs. Baltimore Ravens

This is a perfect storm of talent meets opportunity. Justin Herbert has been cooking over the last month, leading the league with an absurd 92.0 Pro Football Focus (PFF) passing grade since Week 7. The Chargers have also leaned into the passing game, with a pass rate at least 5% over expected in five of their last six games. That’s a huge change from early in the year when they were one of the most run-happy offenses in the league.

Now, they welcome the Ravens, who have been the softest team defending the pass in the entire NFL. Although they rank just third-highest in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, Baltimore easily leads the league with 304 passing yards per game given up — no other team is at even 290. They also lead the league by a mile in dropback expected points allowed (EPA) at 0.318. This is a smash spot for Herbert. He is a must-start option.

Bad Matchup: Sam Darnold (QB – MIN) @ Chicago Bears

Believe it or not, Sam Darnold is the fantasy QB10 on the season. That isn’t just a result of him staying healthy, either — he is the QB13 in points per game and has finished as a top-10 weekly option in five of his 10 outings. Having a great play-caller in Kevin O’Connell and an elite wide receiver in Justin Jefferson has done wonders for the third overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft. However, this is not the week to put your faith in Darnold.

The Bears’ defense ranks dead last in the league with just 12.3 points per game given up to opposing signal-callers. With a bad rush defense and a struggling offense, they don’t give up much volume, facing the sixth-fewest passing attempts per game. And when teams do look to pass, Chicago’s defense makes their life difficult, allowing the second-lowest EPA per dropback. Darnold has been solid, but he’s certainly not matchup-proof. Leave him on your bench for this week.

Week 12 Running Back Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Bucky Irving (RB – TB) @ New York Giants

This one needs a bit of explanation, as the Giants rank as a thoroughly average matchup in terms of points per game allowed to opposing running backs — 15th in the NFL. However, that number obscures how much they have struggled against the run. The Giants give up the most yards per carry to opposing backs at 5.15 yards per pop, as well as the fourth-most yards per game. They are also one of just six teams to allow a positive EPA per carry to opposing offenses.

A combination of not allowing many touchdowns to opposing running backs and being relatively good against the pass is the only reason they don’t rank higher as a fantasy matchup. Luckily, Bucky Irving isn’t the Buccaneers’ pass-catching back, anyway, as that role is mostly handled by Rachaad White. Irving’s job is to handle the load when the Buccaneers are rolling, which they should be against a Giants team starting Tommy DeVito. Role him out with confidence as an RB2 this week.

Bad Matchup: Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Chuba Hubbard has been excellent so far this season, ranking as the RB10 in half-PPR leagues. Since Week 3, he has been the RB6, behind only Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Joe Mixon, Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson. With that said, I don’t think you can trust Hubbard in your lineups this week.

The Chiefs have been brutal against opposing backs so far this season, allowing just 12.8 points per game (no other team is below 14.5). They allow the fewest carries per game and the fewest yards per carry to opposing backs. They even defend running backs well in the receiving game, giving up the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game to the position. Especially with rookie Jonathon Brooks set to be active and potentially cutting into his workload. I recommend leaving Hubbard on your bench this week when making fantasy start sit decisions.

Week 12 Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Quentin Johnston (WR – LAC) vs. Baltimore Ravens

As mentioned above, I expect Justin Herbert to torch the Ravens’ secondary this week. He’ll have to throw the ball to someone. I also considered Ladd McConkey for this spot, but let’s dig a little deeper, as McConkey is a top-20 wide receiver in FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR) for Week 12. Quentin Johnston, whom many wrote off as a bust after an admittedly awful rookie year, has taken a huge step forward as a sophomore.

Albeit thanks in part to a few broken plays, he ranks as the WR33 in points per game — that’s not bad at all. Meanwhile, the Ravens are giving up 189.5 yards, 1.45 touchdowns and 36 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers. All three of those numbers lead the league. Johnston is also the Chargers’ preferred deep threat, which works well as the Ravens have allowed the third-most passing plays of over 20 yards. If you’re looking for a Flex play with all the byes this week, Johnston is a very solid option.

Bad Matchup: Jakobi Meyers (WR – LV) vs. Denver Broncos

A week ago, I would have considered Jakobi Meyers a must-start regardless of matchup, as he was seeing elite target shares every week. However, he saw just an 11.6% target share last week, by far his lowest mark in a game without Davante Adams. Without the safe floor of a guaranteed 20%+ target share, Meyers is in a bad spot heading into a tough matchup with the Broncos. Denver allows the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing receivers (21.1).

They are a particularly tough matchup for opposing No. 1 WRs, as Patrick Surtain has made a habit of shutting down top receivers. Only one receiver (Zay Flowers) has managed over 80 receiving yards against Denver. I don’t think Gardner Minshew will put the same stress on this defense as Lamar Jackson did. Outside of Flowers, the best any team’s No. 1 WR has done against Denver was Meyers himself, catching six out of nine targets for 72 yards in a Week 5 loss. That’s not a terrible outing, but it’s not exactly thrilling. Meyers isn’t a must-bench option, but it’s worth thinking twice before putting him in your lineup.

Week 12 Tight End Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Ja’Tavion Sanders (TE – CAR) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs’ defense is one of the best in the league, but if they have one weakness, it is the tight end position. They allow the fourth-most points to opposing tight ends, but that doesn’t tell the full story. Kansas City ranks first in both yards and receptions per game given up to opposing tight ends, and neither number is particularly close.

Meanwhile, the last time the Panthers were on the field, Ja’Tavion Sanders set by far his season-high in route participation rate with an excellent 86% mark. The rookie tight end is a great athlete and has a decent 18% target per route run rate (TPRR) for the season. Assuming he maintains his increased usage coming out of the Panthers’ bye, he is an excellent streaming option against a beatable Chiefs defense.

Bad Matchup: Cade Otton (TE – TB) @ New York Giants

The Buccaneers lost both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans in Week 7, and Cade Otton stepped up. Between Week 7 and Week 10 (Tampa was on a bye in Week 11), he trailed only Travis Kelce among tight ends with 38 targets (9.5 per game). He beat even Kelce in fantasy points over that span, racking up 15.6 points per game thanks to three touchdowns and nearly 300 yards. Based just on his recent numbers, Otton belongs in the must-start tier at the tight end position.

However, I’m worried that this week will be a letdown for the third-year tight end. For one, Evans will likely return this week, potentially cutting into Otton’s elite target share. More importantly, the Giants have been a surprisingly brutal matchup for tight ends so far this season. They rank dead last in points per game, third-lowest in receptions per game and second-lowest in yards per game allowed to the position.

To be fair, they haven’t exactly faced a who’s who of elite options at the position. Zach Ertz (twice) is the best fantasy option they’ve had to defend. But they’ve beaten the players across from them, allowing just Ertz (one out of two times) above 50 receiving yards and no tight end to reach double-digit half-PPR points. If Evans returns, Otton won’t necessarily be a priority in Tampa’s offense, and the Giants’ defense is capable of shutting down tight ends who aren’t priorities. If you picked up Otton recently and he isn’t the only solid tight end on your roster, I’d lean toward sitting him for Week 12.

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.

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