Fantasy Football Points Allowed: Best & Worst Matchups (Week 10)

Welcome back to this weekly breakdown of fantasy football matchups to target and avoid at each position. Last week, matchup analysis served us incredibly well… with one huge exception in the form of Zay Flowers running rampant through the Broncos’ secondary. Outside of Flowers, however, every single pick was a massive success.

Hopefully, we can keep rolling this week as we take a look at the best and worst fantasy start sit matchups for Week 10 using the FantasyPros Fantasy Points Allowed tool. Let’s get started.

Fantasy Points Allowed: Best & Worst Matchups (Week 10)

Week 10 Quarterback Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Sam Darnold (QB – MIN) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Sam Darnold has been the definition of a borderline QB1 so far this season. The former Jet has posted two top-five finishes and four top-10 finishes, but he finished outside the top 12 QBs in each of his other four outings. Put it together, and he ranks as exactly the QB12 in points per game. However, this is a week where we should see the good side of Darnold.

The Jaguars rank second in the league with 23.4 fantasy points per game given up to opposing QBs. The only week they haven’t allowed a top-12 QB finish was Week 8, a game where Jordan Love was replaced halfway through by Malik Willis. They have also given up five top-five QB performances in nine weeks, including to Joe Flacco and Caleb Williams. In this matchup, Darnold is a must-start unless you roster a truly elite fantasy QB (in which case, why do you also have Darnold?).

Bad Matchup: Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC) vs. Denver Broncos

Last week, I predicted Patrick Mahomes would have his first QB1 finish of the season against a woeful Buccaneers secondary. He came through with 24.5 points on Monday night, but I don’t expect him to repeat that success this week. After all, that was his first week above 20 fantasy points or in the top 12 weekly QBs, and this week he has a brutal matchup with the Broncos.

Even after getting absolutely shredded by Lamar Jackson last week, the Broncos’ defense ranks fifth-best with just 14.3 points per game given up to opposing QBs. So far this season, Mahomes has done exactly enough to get the job done, nothing more. Against an offensively challenged Denver team, that won’t be much.

Week 10 Running Back Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Tyrone Tracy (RB – NYG) @ Carolina Panthers (Germany Game)

The Panthers give up 29.3 points per game to opposing RBs; no other team gives up even 27. They allow both the most rushing yards and rushing touchdowns per game, as their inept offense combines with a terrible defense to make things very easy on opposing backs.

This sets up perfectly for Tyrone Tracy, who has firmly cemented himself as the Giants’ No. 1 RB. He out-carried Devin Singletary 16 to seven on Sunday, and that split was even more extreme in Week 8 before he exited early with a concussion. If you are lucky enough to have the rookie on your roster, this is the week to lock him into your lineup.

Bad Matchup: Javonte Williams (RB – DEN) @ Kansas City Chiefs

While Tracy has an excellent role heading into a dream matchup, Javonte Williams has an ugly role heading his way and is facing a nightmare opponent. Despite not having missed any time so far this season, he has just a 42% attempt share on a 59% snap rate in Denver’s offense.

That usage won’t be enough in a matchup with a Chiefs team that has shut down opposing RBs to the tune of a league-low 12.5 points per game. Kansas City allows just 50.9 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs, while only one other team (the Ravens) is even below 70. Williams is a must-bench this week if you have any other options.

Week 10 Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Jordan Addison (WR – MIN) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Unsurprisingly, being terrible at stopping quarterbacks tends to correspond with being terrible at stopping wide receivers. The Jaguars rank as the fifth-softest fantasy matchup for opposing WRs, and even that is probably underselling it given they haven’t exactly faced a murder’s row of elite options.

This sets up well for Justin Jefferson, but there should be enough points to go around in the Vikings’ passing game this week for Jordan Addison to eat as well. The sophomore WR has been hit-or-miss this season, but he is coming off a solid outing in which he set a season-high with five receptions for 42 yards and a touchdown. He’s not a must-start, but he’s a very valid fantasy start sit Flex play in this juicy matchup.

Bad Matchup: Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI) vs. New York Jets

Let me start by getting one thing clear: I’m not saying to go crazy and bench Marvin Harrison Jr. for just anyone this week. He’s still an immensely talented receiver playing a large role on a good offense, and we know he can put up top-five numbers in any given week. With that said, we also need to acknowledge that Harrison Jr. has more weeks outside the top 50 receivers (five) than inside the top 24 (three).

His traditional X-receiver role means the rookie is more prone to boom-or-bust scoring than most No. 1 WRs. That’s not a good sign for him heading into a matchup with the Jets, who rank as the second-worst matchup for WRs so far this season. Sauce Gardner gets all the headlines and has taken a step back so far this season, but New York still has a top-tier secondary. Their offense is also one of the slowest in the leagues, further reducing the chance for opposing teams to rack up points. If you have other good options, benching Harrison Jr. this week isn’t as crazy as it might sound.

Week 10 Tight End Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Theo Johnson (TE – NYG) @ Carolina Panthers (Germany Game)

An athletic fourth-round rookie out of Penn State, Theo Johnson has been decently involved in the Giants’ offense all season, with a 68% route participation rate for the year. However, he hasn’t seen many targets, never reaching even a 15% target share in this very concentrated offense… until last week, in which he posted a 23% target share, catching three of his six looks for 51 yards and his first career touchdown.

Now, he gets a good chance to follow up that breakout performance with another solid week as he faces off against a Panthers defense that has been shredded by TEs so far this season. Carolina has given up 15.0 points per game to opposing TEs, easily the most of any team in the league. A solid chunk of that production has indeed been touchdowns, but sometimes a lucky TD is all you can hope for with a streaming TE. If you are looking for a punt play at TE this week, Johnson is probably the best choice available in most leagues.

Bad Matchup: Sam LaPorta (TE – DET) @ Houston Texans

It’s almost impossible to overstate how disappointing Sam LaPorta has been so far this season. The consensus TE1 in drafts, he has averaged just 6.6 fantasy points per game on a miserable 11% target share. Those numbers get even worse if we look at games with Jameson Williams (who missed Weeks 8 and 9 with a suspension but returns this week) active: 5.9 points per game on an 8.4% target share.

Meanwhile, the Texans rank as the worst fantasy matchup for tight ends, with just 5.1 points per game given up to the position. While no other team gives up fewer than 30 yards per game to tight ends, they have allowed just 20.1. I recommend finding another option for this week in any leagues where you roster LaPorta.

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.