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Fantasy Football Lineup Landmines: Start/Sit Advice (Week 13)

Arguably, the most frustrating thing in fantasy football is seeing someone in your starting lineup struggle that week. Therefore, the logic behind this article is simple – identify fantasy football lineup landmines.

These are players you’re leaning towards starting this week but could end up being a landmine that blows up and destroys your starting lineup, potentially costing you your matchup.

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Brace yourself and take cover. These six players could blow up in your face in Week 13.

Fantasy Football Lineup Landmines: Week 13

Brock Purdy (QB – SF) vs. Buffalo Bills

Unfortunately, Purdy missed the Week 12 contest with a shoulder injury. However, according to head coach Kyle Shanahan, the star quarterback did some light throwing on Monday and didn’t have any issues. He was playing well before the injury, averaging 21.9 fantasy points per game over his past five contests. Yet, fantasy players should be concerned about starting Purdy this week. He doesn’t play until Sunday night, potentially leaving fantasy players scrambling for a last-minute replacement. Furthermore, the former Iowa State star has an awful matchup against the Bills.

Buffalo has held quarterbacks to 13.7 fantasy points per game, the eighth-fewest in the NFL. They have surrendered one or fewer passing touchdowns in 54.6% of their games, including in matchups against Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray, and C.J. Stroud. Furthermore, quarterbacks not named Patrick Mahomes have struggled when facing the Bills in Buffalo, averaging 1.3 passing touchdowns and 12.5 fantasy points per game in four road matchups against the AFC East division leaders. Don’t be surprised if Purdy struggles in the cold in his first game back from the injury.

James Conner (RB – ARI) vs. Minnesota Vikings

Last week, Conner struggled against the Seattle Seahawks, totaling eight yards on seven rushing attempts. The veteran running back has averaged 2.4 yards per rushing attempt and 31.3 yards per game over his past four contests outside the matchup against the Chicago Bears. While he scored 13.4 or more half-point PPR fantasy points in two of those three matchups, Conner needed a rushing touchdown to score double digits. More importantly, the veteran has struggled against top run defenses, scoring 4.7 fantasy points against the Detroit Lions earlier this year.

After struggling in Week 12, Conner faced an elite Vikings run defense this week. Minnesota has held running backs to 14.6 fantasy points per game, the second-fewest in the NFL. They have surrendered fewer than 9.3 fantasy points in three of their past four games, holding running backs to 52 or fewer rushing yards in four consecutive matchups despite facing multiple talented rushers. More importantly, the Vikings have surrendered four rushing touchdowns to running backs, the third-fewest in the NFL, allowing only one over the past five contests.

D’Andre Swift (RB – CHI) vs. Detroit Lions

Thanksgiving’s three-game slate kicks off with an NFC North matchup between the last-place Bears and first-place Lions. Furthermore, it’s Swift’s first game against the team that drafted him in 2020. The veteran is the RB18 for the year, averaging 12.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, he has been wildly inconsistent. Swift has scored 18.9 or more fantasy points in 36.4% of the games. By comparison, the former Georgia star has scored eight or fewer fantasy points in 45.5% of the games, including two of the past three.

Furthermore, Swift has been in a slump lately. He has averaged 3.6 yards per rushing attempt and 10.4 fantasy points per game over the past four weeks, totaling one touchdown. More importantly, Swift has played fewer than 58% of the snaps in both games under new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown. Meanwhile, Detroit has held running backs to 14.7 fantasy points per game, the third-fewest in the NFL. They have surrendered 9.7 or fewer fantasy points to running backs in 45.5% of their games, including 3.5 to Jonathan Taylor last week.

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Zay Flowers (WR – BAL) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

While Diontae Johnson has had no fantasy impact since joining the Ravens, Flowers’ production has severely regressed lately. The second-year star was the WR10 over the first nine weeks, averaging 7.4 targets and 12.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. He had double-digit targets in 44.4% of those games, scoring 15 or more fantasy points in all but four contests. However, Flowers has struggled lately. He is the WR29 over the past three weeks, averaging 6.7 targets and 8.3 fantasy points per game, totaling 8.7 or fewer fantasy points twice.

More importantly, the Eagles secondary has been outstanding lately. Last week, the Los Angeles Rams wide receiver core had 233 receiving yards, two touchdowns, and 46.8 fantasy points against Philadelphia, with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp each scoring 16 or more fantasy points. However, the Rams have arguably the best 1-2 punch at wide receiver in the NFL. By comparison, Philadelphia had held wide receivers to 73.3 receiving yards and 12.6 fantasy points per game over their previous six contests, surrendering single-digit fantasy points in nearly half of those matchups.

Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR – SF) vs. Buffalo Bills

Many thought Samuel would turn into a top-10 wide receiver and a plug-and-play option for fantasy players after Brandon Aiyuk suffered a season-ending knee injury. However, the star wide receiver has averaged only 6.9 half-points per game in the four contests without Aiyuk, scoring 4.1 or fewer in back-to-back weeks. Furthermore, Samuel has one touchdown since Week 1 and fewer than 72 receiving yards in all but two contests this year. More importantly, the star wide receiver is losing targets to Jauan Jennings since the Aiyuk injury.

Jennings didn’t play in the team’s first game without Aiyuk. However, he has seen 12 more targets than Samuel in the other three games (29 vs. 17), totaling 11 looks in two contests. Meanwhile, the Bills have held wide receivers to 23.6 fantasy points per game, the eighth-fewest in the NFL. More importantly, Buffalo has shut down opposing No. 1 wide receivers lately, surrendering 59.6 receiving yards and 9.7 fantasy points per game over the past five weeks, giving up 10.7 or fewer in all but one contest.

T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN) vs. Arizona Cardinals

Fantasy players who stashed Hockenson all year in their injured reserve spot couldn’t be happier with the star tight end’s performance in Week 12. He had seven receptions on nine targets for 114 receiving yards and 14.9 half-point PPR fantasy points, setting season-highs in yards and fantasy points. However, the Chicago Bears did everything to shut down Justin Jefferson, allowing everyone else to thrive. More importantly, Hockenson averaged 4.3 receptions on 5.3 targets for 37.3 receiving yards and 5.9 fantasy points per game in his other three contests this year.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals defense has quietly played well this season, surrendering the 11th-fewest points per game (21.5). They’ve given up only one offensive touchdown over their past two contests. More importantly, Arizona has held tight ends to the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game this year (7.5). Furthermore, George Kittle is the only tight end to score a touchdown against the Cardinals this season. By comparison, they’ve held tight ends 6.6 fantasy points per contest in their other 10 matchups, surrendering 7.3 or fewer in 80% of those games.

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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

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