Week 12 was filled with kicker drama, with Austin Seibert missing an extra point following an improbable late touchdown pass from Jayden Daniels to Terry McLaurin. That heartbreaking turn of events was followed by a missed chip shot field goal try by Ka’imi Fairbairn, which would likely secure a win for the Texans over the Titans.
With the proliferation of 50-plus field goals this season, it is important to remember that kicking is hard, and even the best, like Fairbairn, can miss clutch kicks.
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Here are a few Week 12 strong performances from widely available kickers
Wil Lutz (K – DEN) vs. Las Vegas: 21% roster percentage on Yahoo
Lutz was pure money on Sunday, with five made field goals and two extra points against the Raiders. His is likely going to be the top waiver kicker ad this week.
Nick Folk (K – TEN) @ Houston: 1% roster percentage on Yahoo
The old man of the kicking world posted his second-best game of the season with 18 fantasy points against Houston. Outside of this game and his 24-point showing against the Dolphins, Folk has been someone to avoid in fantasy. Of the two, I would rather add Lutz.
Week 12 Dud Performances from heavily-owned kickers
Jake Moody (K – SF) vs. Green Bay: 70% roster percentage on Yahoo
The 49ers are a shell of their former self, and all of their players should be downgraded with Allen under center. In addition, this week against the Bills in the blizzard is not a great start for Moody.
Kicker Rankings:
| Rank | ECR | Name | TEAM | Opponent | Over/Under | Spread | OPP RZ D | RZ EFF* | OFF RNK | K Score** | Weather |
| 1 | 2 | Jake Bates | DET | vs. CHI | 48.5 | -10 | 3 | 28 | 2 | 23 | Dome |
| 2 | 6 | Brandon Aubrey | DAL | vs. NYG | 37.0 | -3.5 | 11 | 1 | 20 | 28.5 | Dome |
| 3 | 11 | Younghoe Koo | ATL | vs. LAC | 48.0 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 24 | Dome |
| 4 | 13 | Brandon McManus | GB | vs. MIA | 47.0 | -3.5 | 7 | 12 | 5 | 20.5 | 28F, 8% chance of snow. Light Wind |
| 5 | 10 | John Parker Romo | MIN | vs. ARI | 45.0 | 3.5 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 32.5 | Dome |
| 6 | 7 | Justin Tucker | BAL | vs. PHI | 51.5 | -3 | 5 | 31 | 1 | 34 | 37F, Light Wind |
| 7 | 12 | Jake Elliott | PHI | at BAL | 51.5 | 3 | 15 | 16 | 3 | 37 | 37F, Light Wind |
| 8 | 1 | Cameron Dicker | LAC | at ATL | 48.0 | -2 | 21 | 19 | 21 | 59 | Dome |
| 9 | 3 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | at JAC | 43.0 | -5 | 26 | 13 | 16 | 50 | 61F, Light Wind |
| 10 | 4 | Chris Boswell | PIT | at CIN | 48.0 | 3 | 31 | 2 | 18 | 54 | 27F, 16% chance of snow |
| 11 | 5 | Chase McLaughlin | TB | at CAR | 46.5 | -6 | 23 | 30 | 7 | 54 | 46F, Light Wind |
| 12 | 8 | Tyler Bass | BUF | vs. SF | 44.5 | -7 | 29 | 26 | 13 | 61 | 29F and Blizzard Conditions |
| 13 | 9 | Wil Lutz | DEN | vs. CLE | 42.0 | -5.5 | 22 | 20 | 23 | 59.5 | 40F, Light Wind |
| 14 | 14 | Spencer Shrader | KC | vs. LV | 42.5 | -10 | 24 | 16 | 14 | 44 | 34F, Light Wind |
| 15 | 16 | Evan McPherson | CIN | vs. PIT | 48.5 | -3 | 11 | 29 | 9 | 46 | 27F, 16% chance of snow |
| 16 | 17 | Joshua Karty | LAR | at NO | 48.5 | -3 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 27 | Dome |
| 17 | 15 | Jason Sanders | MIA | at GB | 47.0 | 3.5 | 20 | 21 | 19 | 63.5 | 28F, 8% chance of snow. Light Wind |
| 18 | 18 | Matt Gay | IND | at NE | 42.5 | -2.5 | 19 | 8 | 22 | 46.5 | 37F, Light Wind |
| 19 | 19 | Chad Ryland | ARI | at MIN | 45.0 | -3.5 | 27 | 24 | 15 | 62.5 | Dome |
| 20 | 20 | Zane Gonzalez | WAS | vs. TEN | 44.5 | -5.5 | 25 | 23 | 6 | 48.5 | 37F, Light Wind |
| 21 | 25 | Jake Moody | SF | at BUF | 44.5 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 28 | 29F and Blizzard Conditions |
| 22 | 21 | Jason Myers | SEA | at NYJ | 41.5 | -2 | 17 | 14 | 12 | 41 | 37F, Light Wind |
| 23 | 22 | Blake Grupe | NO | vs. LAR | 48.5 | 3 | 9 | 25 | 11 | 48 | Dome |
| 24 | 23 | Joey Slye | NE | vs. IND | 42.5 | 2.5 | 18 | 3 | 32 | 55.5 | 37F, Light Wind |
| 25 | 24 | Nick Folk | TEN | at WAS | 44.5 | 5.5 | 28 | 3 | 25 | 61.5 | 37F, Light Wind |
| 26 | 27 | Eddy Pineiro | CAR | vs. TB | 46.5 | 6 | 16 | 22 | 31 | 75 | 46F, Light Wind |
| 27 | 29 | Cairo Santos | CHI | at DET | 48.5 | 10 | 2 | 27 | 26 | 65 | Dome |
| 28 | 30 | Dustin Hopkins | CLE | at DEN | 42.0 | 5.5 | 1 | 19 | 29 | 54.5 | 40F, Light Wind |
| 29 | 31 | Anders Carlson | NYJ | vs. SEA | 41.5 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 27 | 51 | 37F, Light Wind |
| 30 | 32 | Graham Gano | NYG | at DAL | 37.0 | 3.5 | 32 | 0 | 24 | 59.5 | Dome |
| 31 | 28 | Cam Little | JAC | vs. HOU | 43.0 | 5 | 30 | 17 | 30 | 82 | 61F, Light Wind |
| 32 | 33 | Daniel Carlson | LV | at KC | 42.5 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 28 | 59 | 34F, Light Wind |
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank 1st in red zone efficiency; therefore, Justin Tucker has a RZ EFF score of 31. The lower the number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent’s red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play in Week 13.
Brandon McManus (K – GB) vs. Miami 13% roster percentage on Yahoo
I am staying in the flames here with McManus. The weather against the Dolphins on Thursday looks solid for kicking, and I anticipate there will be a positive game script here for some points. Look for another 10-plus performance from McManus.
Younghoe Koo (K – ATL) vs. LA Chargers 50% roster percentage on Yahoo
It has been a rough year for Koo, but I like him more than consensus this week. He is going to outperform his ECR of 11. Assuming this game does not go sideways, I have him as a top-5 player. Looking at you, Kirk Cousins.
Prediction Review
Each week, I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Brandon McManus (K – GB) vs. San Francisco: 13% roster percentage on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 14
My Rank: 7
Week 12 Finish: 10
McManus came through with a nice 10-point performance against the visiting 49ers. I anticipated even more production based on the 49ers red zone defense, but the Pack were too efficient and steamrolled a once-solid defense.
Parker Romo (K – MIN) @ Chicago 8% roster percentage on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 12
My Rank: 9
Week 12 Finish: T5
After a rough week in which Austin Seibert did not suit up in week 11, it was nice to have a pair of top-10 finishes, including Parker Romo‘s 13 points against the Bears. I like him again this week against the Cardinals.
Waiver Wired
Wil Lutz (K – DEN) vs. Cleveland: 21% roster percentage on Yahoo
Younghoe Koo (K – ATL) vs. LA Chargers 50% roster percentage on Yahoo
Parker Romo (K – MIN) vs. Arizona 8% roster percentage on Yahoo
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