Justin Tucker is likely going to be a Hall of Famer when his career ends. He is the most accurate kicker in NFL history (technically second now to Eddy Pineiro) and one of the most clutch special teams weapons over the past 10-plus seasons. Ravens fans have been spoiled during his time with the team, with a comfort level on kicks that not many fan bases have enjoyed.
But on shank Sunday, a day that saw ten missed field goals and four extra points, Justin Tucker was perhaps the most surprising offender. Although he did not shank chip shots like Dustin Hopkins or Joshua Karty, he uncharacteristically missed two first-half kicks in a critical divisional game against the Steelers.
Tucker now has six missed field goals on the season, just one away from matching his career-worst season in 2015. With six games to go, chances are he could tie or set a new career mark for shanks.
From a fantasy perspective, he ranks 18th in points per game despite having the second-most extra-point attempts to boost his floor. In four of his 11 games he has posted fewer than six fantasy points, yet he continues to be owned and started in 99% of Yahoo Leagues.
Sure, there is FOMO when moving on from a legend like Tucker to someone like Chris Boswell or Austin Seibert. But there is also a danger of sticking with a guy who continues to underperform when your opponents are beating you on the scoreboard and in the standings.
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Here are a few Week 11 strong performances from widely available kickers
Chris Boswell (PIT) vs. Baltimore: 66% roster percentage on Yahoo
The number one kicker on the week with 24 fantasy points is available in a third of Yahoo Leagues. He has five games of over 14 fantasy points and two over 20, and his floor is typically 8 fantasy points. I’ve been touting him for weeks on the article, yet for some reason the community continues to discount him.
Matt Gay (IND) @ NY Jets: 13% roster percentage on Yahoo
Gay posted a top-5 finish in Week 11 and is the 5th-ranked kicker over the past five weeks. He is someone to watch (Not this week against the Lions, but going forward)
Week 11 Dud Performances from heavily-owned kickers
Tyler Bass vs. Kansas City: 89% roster percentage on Yahoo
With just five fantasy points in a game in which the Bills scored 30, Bass was somewhat of a disappointment. I wanted to list Tucker here, but I figured I picked on him enough in the introduction. Bass is the 8th-ranked kicker on the season and will continue to have value. It was just a shame that he only had one field goal try and missed one of his extra points.
Kicker Rankings:
| Rank | ECR | Name | TEAM | Opponent | Over/Under | Spread | OPP RZ D | RZ EFF* | OFF RNK | K Score** | Weather |
| 1 | 2 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | vs. TEN | 41.5 | -8.5 | 27 | 13 | 14 | 45.5 | Dome |
| 2 | 1 | Jake Bates | DET | at IND | 50.5 | -7.5 | 16 | 28 | 3 | 39.5 | Dome |
| 3 | 10 | Chase McLaughlin | TB | at NYG | 41.5 | -5 | 5 | 29 | 8 | 37 | 52F, Slight Chance of Rain |
| 4 | 7 | Justin Tucker | BAL | at LAC | 47.5 | -2.5 | 2 | 31 | 1 | 31.5 | Dome |
| 5 | 3 | Chris Boswell | PIT | at CLE | 36.5 | -3.5 | 24 | 2 | 19 | 41.5 | 37F, Rain, 16 MPH Winds |
| 6 | 4 | Cameron Dicker | LAC | vs. BAL | 47.5 | 2.5 | 13 | 11 | 18 | 44.5 | Dome |
| 7 | 14 | Brandon McManus | GB | vs. SF | 48.0 | -2.5 | 23 | 5 | 4 | 29.5 | 45F, Chance of Rain |
| 8 | 5 | Jason Sanders | MIA | vs. NE | 46.0 | -7 | 17 | 12 | 22 | 44 | 74F, Light Wind |
| 9 | 12 | John Parker Romo | MIN | at CHI | 39.5 | -3.5 | 1 | 18 | 15 | 30.5 | 49F, Chance of Rain, Light Wind |
| 10 | 6 | Jake Moody | SF | at GB | 48.0 | 2.5 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 29.5 | 45F, Chance of Rain |
| 11 | 8 | Wil Lutz | DEN | at LV | 41.0 | -5.5 | 26 | 22 | 23 | 65.5 | Dome |
| 12 | 9 | Brandon Aubrey | DAL | at WAS | 45.5 | 10.5 | 27 | 1 | 20 | 58.5 | 53F, Light Wind |
| 13 | 11 | Jake Elliott | PHI | at LAR | 50.0 | -3 | 11 | 21 | 5 | 34 | Dome |
| 14 | 13 | Chad Ryland | ARI | at SEA | 47.5 | -1 | 14 | 25 | 12 | 50 | 47F, Rain Likely |
| 15 | 15 | Zane Gonzalez | WAS | vs. DAL | 45.5 | -10.5 | 32 | 19 | 6 | 46.5 | 53F, Light Wind |
| 16 | 19 | Jason Myers | SEA | vs. ARI | 47.5 | 1 | 10 | 17 | 10 | 38 | 47F, Rain Likely |
| 17 | 16 | Spencer Shrader | KC | at CAR | 41.0 | -11 | 27 | 21 | 16 | 53 | 58F, Light Wind |
| 18 | 17 | Matt Gay | IND | vs. DET | 50.5 | 7.5 | 3 | 15 | 21 | 46.5 | Dome |
| 19 | 18 | Joshua Karty | LAR | vs. PHI | 50.0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 32 | Dome |
| 20 | 20 | Joey Slye | NE | at MIA | 46.0 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 31 | 49 | 74F, Light Wind |
| 21 | 21 | Daniel Carlson | LV | vs. DEN | 41.0 | 5.5 | 3 | 17 | 30 | 55.5 | Dome |
| 22 | 22 | Dustin Hopkins | CLE | vs. PIT | 36.5 | -3.5 | 8 | 9 | 27 | 40.5 | 37F, Rain, 16 MPH Winds |
| 23 | 24 | Cairo Santos | CHI | vs. MIN | 39.5 | 3.5 | 21 | 23 | 29 | 76.5 | 49F, Chance of Rain, Light Wind |
| 24 | 25 | Graham Gano | NYG | vs. TB | 41.5 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 24 | 46 | 52F, Slight Chance of Rain |
| 25 | 26 | Nick Folk | TEN | at HOU | 41.5 | 8.5 | 27 | 4 | 25 | 64.5 | Dome |
| 26 | 27 | Eddy Pineiro | CAR | vs. KC | 41.5 | 11 | 15 | 27 | 32 | 85 | 58F, Light Wind |
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank 1st in red zone efficiency; therefore Justin Tucker has a RZ EFF score of 31. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide, but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play in Week 12.
Brandon McManus (GB) vs. San Francisco: 13% roster percentage on Yahoo
It may sound crazy going back to the well for a guy who burned me so badly last week. But I am sticking with the K Score, and McManus’ 29.5 is one of the better ones this week. The Niner’s defense is going to make it tough for the Packers to score touchdowns, although an injured Nick Bosa may make it easier to move the ball.
John Parker Romo @ Chicago 8% roster percentage on Yahoo
Look for Romo to bounce back from a 5-point game against the Titans with at least ten points on the road against the Bears. Chicago boasts the top red zone defense and the Viking’s offense has struggled lately. This could be a field goal game.
Prediction Review
Each week, I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Brandon McManus (GB) vs. Chicago: 3% roster percentage on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 13
My Rank: 2
Week 11 Finish: 30
This might be one of the season’s biggest surprises for me and my projections. Everything on paper looked great and McManus boasted one of the best K scores in history. But the game script did not play out and he did not get opportunities for field goals.
Austin Seibert @ Philadelphia: 32% roster percentage on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 26
My Rank: 4
Week 11 Finish: NA
I wrote that Seibert was an injury risk, and he ended up not playing. His replacement Zane Gonzales, had five fantasy points, as the Commander’s offense struggled to move the ball.
Waiver Wired
Jake Moody (SF) vs. Green Bay: 65% roster percentage on Yahoo
Chase McLaughlin @ NY Giants: 11% roster percentage on Yahoo
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