Most leagues have a mere two weeks left before the fantasy football playoffs begin in earnest. Don’t burn the roux. You might be thinking conservative thoughts, endeavoring to coast into December on Heely’s. It’s about this juncture that I dig the deepest. That final, furious push to daylight requires a pioneering spirit. Be the only philosopher in your league. What if there’s a rookie on your bench with a lower projected score, but he’s coming off a bye? Start him. It’s not getting cute. The reason we do this is to raise the ceiling of our potential score.

I nearly always put an upside player with volatility in my flex spot(s). I’ve asked you to endure my risk tolerance when I imagine the wildest dream performances from all sorts of players. Now I’m commanding you to dive into the pepper pot behind the brambles with me. There are patterns to follow and usage predictability is never going to be higher than it is now. There are contenders and rebuilders. Each of them has more or less shown their cards on the direction they will go with personnel decisions, and a good many injured players have returned to play recently. Week 13 predates Friday the 13th so I believe we come up aces.

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Fantasy Football Hot Takes: Week 13

Chargers Bounce Back With Resounding Road Win in Atlanta; Ladd McConkey Racks up 25 PPR Points to Crack WR1 Territory

It was surprising to see the Chargers have such a letdown in the passing game against a vulnerable Ravens pass defense. Dropped passes and penalties chopped Justin Herbert and the Bolts down at their knees. Atlanta has shared similar struggles on the back end in recent weeks. Teams have attacked the boundaries to stay away from Jessie Bates III and it has been working. Look for reliable rookie Ladd McConkey to continue his rolling boil and rack up a ton of volume as Herbert’s only sure-handed weapon. Go ahead and take a chance on Quentin Johnston again; he will bounce back and have more big-play potential. The backfield is a mess without JK Dobbins. I’d avoid it if possible.

Los Angeles is flaunting a vicious defense, only bested by the effervescent Lamar Jackson himself. Kirk Cousins needs a rebound performance after an embarrassing trundle into their bye week. Drake London and Kyle Pitts are very risky, but not in the fade conversation. Bijan Robinson needs to get a steady drip to keep this one close.

Bucky Irving Explodes for 150 Scrimmage Yards and Two Touchdowns; Buccaneers Take Damage But Beat Panthers By Double Digits

Here’s another spicy prediction involving a rookie. Bucky Irving has ushered Rachaad White from the steady volume of yesteryear. White has looked fantastic in short bursts, a clear case of healthy competition among teammates. Irving has simply been even better. He was a glove fit for Liam Cohen’s scheme and has earned the role he is in. Carolina is easy to pick on with running backs. The low-hanging fruit strategy has worked since fantasy football results were carved into payphone chrome. There’s no worry about starting White this week, but Bucky’s upside is tantalizing. Mike Evans‘ return has opened up the offense a great deal. Baker Mayfield should be receiving more MVP murmurs than he is at present.

Don’t sleep on Bryce Young against a really shaky Tampa Bay defense. He thoroughly diced up a nasty Steve Spagnuolo Chiefs unit last week, tossing dime after dime into Trevi Fountain. Adam Thielen is dusty, but the man has paid my bills since I was hitting the 2:00 am slice shop at Chico State. Chuba Hubbard isn’t my favorite player, but his performance this season has softened my hatred for him considerably. His floor and ceiling are much higher than where the consensus is hovering.

Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara Combine for 200 Rushing Yards and Each Score Touchdowns; Saints Win 60-Point Shootout Over Rams

Last year, I loaded up on a lot of Rams players in dynasty. Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp form the most concentrated target dispersion for two WRs west of the Mississippi. For how dull Kyren Williams‘ game is, Sean McVay’s blood oath to give him every single freaking snap has proven useful to us. The Saints have yielded gaudy numbers to opposing running backs, so Kyren is an elite play in all formats. Matthew Stafford is a safe floor, but still needs a huge game to score the kind of fantasy points we need to improve our position.

The Saints have been a fever dream. From more than 90 points in their first two games, to limping along without star players and ousting their horrendous head coach, New Orleans is at least interesting. Derek Carr is back from injury, but former quarterback Taysom Hill has been everything else. The Mormon Missile broke the slate in Week 12. He is a top five lock at tight end. Alvin Kamara is still great, especially with Carr back under center.

Sunday Night Features an Epic Fantasy Bonanza; Jalen Hurts is the QB1 on the Week as Eagles Edge Out Lamar’s Ravens on Late Miss by Justin Tucker

While the Ravens shouldn’t have surprised me on Monday night, they did. Lamar Jackson is in the running for his third MVP, so why wouldn’t he carve up one of the league’s best defenses and drop 30 points in primetime? Baltimore is more than that. Derrick Henry is always ominously hulking in the backfield, ready to break loose like a one-man wildebeest stampede (RIP, Mustafa). They haven’t even needed recently-acquired Diontae Johnson, because Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman have been so impressive. Mark Andrews is heating up nicely, while it’s likely Isaiah Likely is a touchdown-dependent flyer going forward.

Philadelphia is right there with Detroit for who is best in the NFC. Saquon Barkley has rightly garnered the praise for the Eagles’ success. Jalen Hurts and AJ Brown are still here and possess an inhuman ceiling against this Ravens pass defense. Baltimore is a tough run defense and can limit Saquon’s ability to hit those home run plays. It’s the perfect funnel for an under-appreciated Philly air attack. If DeVonta Smith can’t go again with his hamstring, Brown might see 12 targets or more. I can see Hurts having one of those five combined touchdown games for the ages. The Tucker thing isn’t even that spicy this year, but it stings to see such a legend of the game get stuck in such a rut.