Welcome back, everybody! NFL Week 12 is officially in the books, and there’s plenty to unpack from all the action! As we head into Week 13, my focus is shifting to rest-of-season outlooks for players, especially now that most trade deadlines have passed. This means more emphasis on stock up and stock down for players and actionable insights like PrizePicks plays, player props, start/sit decisions, and who to stash, drop, or add off the waiver wire.
My goal remains the same: to do the heavy lifting for you by analyzing the key data points so you can focus on making the moves that matter for your fantasy football team. As my college marketing professor used to say, “Keep it simple, stupid.” The KISS mantra is alive and well here.
I’ll continue to highlight critical data points from the past week – snap shares, routes run, and high-value opportunities – and help separate the noise from what’s actionable. Polarizing performances will remain a focal point, as they often create the most questions for fantasy managers.
This will also be the final edition featuring trade advice and graphics, as trade deadlines are now over. Moving forward, we’ll shift our attention to optimizing rosters and leveraging platforms like PrizePicks and other player-focused strategies.
Prizepicks has a great offer this week – use my promo code PR-REQ653D – to get $25 in funds instantly, and play it with Tyreek Hill to go MORE than 0.5 receiving yards on Turkey Day!
And don’t forget, Week 13 is Thanksgiving week, featuring a full slate of games with all 32 teams in action. So, without further ado, let’s dive into the Fantasy Forecast and prepare to crush Week 13.
And just so I can hit it up at the top, here are the top DSTs for the rest of the season based on schedules to consider: Buccaneers, Colts, Bengals, and Jaguars.
The forecast calls for a SHOCKINGLY fun slate. Let’s go!
Week 13 Fantasy Football Forecast
Jump ahead and check out my advice for each team using the table below
Cleveland Browns
Add Elijah Moore | Stock Up Jerry Jeudy | Hold David Njoku | Stock Down Cedric Tillman | Buy Nick Chubb
In the Cleveland Browns’ Week 12 matchup, quarterback Jameis Winston completed 18 of 27 passes for 219 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception.
Despite the lack of passing scores, the Browns leaned on their rushing attack, led by Nick Chubb, who carried the ball 20 times for 59 yards and two touchdowns (eight red-zone carries), averaging 3 yards per carry.
According to Next Gen Stats, Chubb also forced a season-high five missed tackles. The Browns rushing attack as a whole produced a season-high 51.9% success rate but had zero explosive runs, only the second game this season in which a team has had a success rate over 50% without a carry of 10+ yards.
Jerome Ford contributed 19 yards on four carries, and Winston added a short 7-yard rushing touchdown on three attempts.
Ford added a solid receiving play with an 8-yard catch, while Nick Chubb chipped in with a short 1-yard reception on a 66% snap share. A positive game script did wonders for Chubb’s fantasy production.
Through the air, Jerry Jeudy stood out with a flawless performance, catching all six of his targets for 85 yards, including a long reception of 26 yards. Jeudy was the clear leader in the passing game with a 22% Target share and 14.2 yards per reception, making him the go-to option for Winston. Jeudy commanded a 31% air yards share.
Tight end Jordan Akins followed with three catches on four targets for 38 yards. Another tight end, Blake Whiteheart, made a splash with a single 29-yard catch, his only target of the game.
Cedric Tillman caught two of his four targets for 28 yards, while Elijah Moore contributed three catches for 21 yards on five targets. Tillman lost a fumble and got knocked out of the game with a concussion. Given the upcoming Denver matchup (a tough schedule overall for WRs) and concussion, Tillman can be dropped in certain circumstances.
David Njoku, targeted five times (twice in the red zone), was limited to just one 9-yard catch. He dropped an easy touchdown but at least caught a two-point conversion.
The Broncos, Steelers, and Chiefs are next. The ground game and Browns offense will undoubtedly face a tougher schedule. Luckily, Winston can do enough to support the guys we care about the most for fantasy football purposes.
Since Week 8, when Winston took over, Jeudy has led the Browns in all major receiving categories. Although the usage is close between him, Moore, and Tillman, the former first-round pick has made the most of his opportunities. Revenge game on deck versus Denver. It might be a tough day for Jeudy to repeat his success if Tillman misses, given the defensive attention he will draw.
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Pittsburgh Steelers
Add Russell Wilson | Stock Down Najee Harris | Stock Up Jaylen Warren | Buy George Pickens | Sell Pat Freiermuth
Quarterback Russell Wilson delivered a strong performance, completing 21 of 28 passes for 270 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions. Wilson posted an impressive 116.7 passer rating, showcasing efficiency in the Steelers’ passing attack. Backup QB Justin Fields attempted just one pass, which was incomplete.
On the ground, Jaylen Warren led the rushing effort with 11 carries for 45 yards and a touchdown, averaging 4.1 yards per carry, with a long run of 15 yards.
Najee Harris followed with 16 carries for 41 yards, managing only 2.6 yards per carry. Fields provided a spark with 26 rushing yards on three attempts, including a 30-yard scramble, while Wilson added 10 yards on three carries. Cordarrelle Patterson had a single carry for negative two yards. All three RBs saw red-zone opportunities.
Warren is starting to look the part of the Steelers RB I drafted all preseason. He played 57% of the snaps to Harris’ 39% snap share.
His emergence is going to hurt Harris’ production.
Another Ravens matchup, Eagles and KC in the playoffs, is going to be brutal for Harris to overcome.
The Steelers play @ CIN, vs CLE, @ PHI, @ BAL and vs KC.
Through the air, Calvin Austin III made a huge impact with three receptions on three targets for 78 yards and a touchdown, including a spectacular 46-yard catch. Austin led the team in receiving yards and scored Pittsburgh’s lone passing touchdown
George Pickens contributed with four receptions on seven targets for 48 yards, highlighted by a 31-yard gain.
One red-zone reception from one red-zone target but no touchdowns. 27% Target share and 143 air yards.
Still, the best might be yet to come. Keep in mind he only had two TDs this season despite being top-10 in yards among WRs. Averaging 82-plus receiving yards per game with Wilson under center.
Tight end Pat Freiermuth hauled in all four of his targets for 59 yards, averaging 14.8 yards per catch.
Van Jefferson showcased his deep-threat ability, catching both of his targets for 39 yards, including a 35-yard play. Warren was also involved in the passing game, catching three of five targets (19% Target share) for 19 yards, while tight end Darnell Washington caught all three of his targets for 14 yards. We nailed the over on Washington’s low receiving yards prop last week.
He has 15 targets in the last five games, and there is a visible connection between him and Wilson when Washington is on the field.
Meanwhile, Freiermuth has 14 targets in the five games started by Russell Wilson. Leave him on waivers.
Harris added two receptions for 13 yards, with an efficient 6.5 yards per catch.
Mike Williams only ran a route on 35% of the dropbacks-a slight decrease from last week. He had one downfield target that fell incomplete.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Hold Cade Otton | Hold Rachaad White | Stock Up Bucky Irving | Stash Buccaneers DST | Add Jalen McMillan
Baker Mayfield showcased excellent efficiency, completing 24 of 30 passes for 294 yards, averaging 9.8 yards per attempt, with no touchdowns or interceptions. He finished with a strong 107.5 passer rating.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Buccaneers have the No.1-ranked schedule for QBs for the rest of the season—3rd-best for RBs.
Running back Bucky Irving led the ground attack with 87 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries, averaging 7.3 yards per rush, including a highlight 56-yard run.
Rachaad White contributed 37 yards and a rushing touchdown on 12 carries but struggled to gain consistent yardage, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry.
Mayfield added value with his legs, rushing for 29 yards and a touchdown on four attempts, while rookie Sean Tucker chipped in with 3 yards and a touchdown on four attempts.
Irving led with six carries in the first half to White/Tucker, who each had four.
Irving led with four red-zone touches, to two each for White/Tucker. Note that Tucker came in to score the first TD on his third carry of the first drive. After he fumbled, he had zero carries. The final snap counts were 52% for Irving, 49% for White and 8% for Tucker.
Bucky’s 18 touches and 52% snap share was the highest he has had all season in a game that White was active in. Irving has taken over at least as the 1A in the Buccaneers backfield.
Irving shined in the passing game as well, securing all 6 of his targets for 64 yards (all in the first half), demonstrating versatility with a 32-yard long catch.
White isn’t totally dead, though, as a fantasy asset. He continues to keep scoring TDs at an unsustainable rate – White has gotten by the last five games with six TDs – but he benefits from all the great matchups Tampa has coming up.
According to Next Gen Stats, Irving rushed 12 times for career highs in rushing yards (87), rushing yards over expected (+48), and yards after contact (98). His opening Prizepicks line is 59.5 rushing yards against the Panthers. Child, please.
Mike Evans was the team’s leading wide receiver, catching 5 of 8 targets (including two defensive penalties) for 68 yards, including a long catch of 26 yards. He caught his lone red-zone target but did not score to go with a 20% Target share and 31% air yards share. Evans was not back to a full-time role but was hyper-targeted at a 35% clip. The game was essentially over at halftime, so they didn’t need to push it.
Cade Otton and Rakim Jarrett each contributed explosive plays, each recording a single catch for 30 yards. Otton’s targets tanked to just three with Evans back in the lineup. Still, the Panthers matchup is divine. I’d wait at least one more week before fully abandoning the Otton ship. The Bucs have the No. 1 schedule for TEs.
Payne Durham added a 26-yard catch on his lone target, while Trey Palmer and Sterling Shepard combined for six receptions and 34 yards.
Shepard led the team with a 23% Target share but totaled just 16 yards on five catches and seven targets. He also led the team in routes run and target rate (36%).
Jalen McMillan had just one catch for 11 yards, which occurred on the first drive (third play from scrimmage). This was despite him playing the most snaps among Bucs WRs. It still feels like a sneaky buy-low.
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New York Giants
Sell Malik Nabers | Stock Down Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Tommy DeVito completed 21 of 31 passes for 189 yards, averaging 6.1 yards per attempt. He did not throw a touchdown or interception, maintaining a passer rating of 83.9.
Drew Lock contributed on a single pass attempt, completing it for three yards when DeVito was briefly sidelined. Is it time for Lock? Might be coming soon.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. led the ground game with nine carries for 42 yards, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, including a long of 16 yards. He had five carries in the first half, and three total red-zone carries but also lost a fumble. That limited him to a 41% snap share.
DeVito added 32 rushing yards on seven attempts, displaying mobility with a 17-yard long run.
Devin Singletary recorded two carries for three yards but managed to score the team’s only rushing touchdown. It was a bad run out for Tracy’s fantasy managers, as that was “his” TD had he not been punished for fumbling.
Tracy Jr. was effective out of the backfield, catching all four of his targets for 28 yards. Devin Singletary and Eric Gray each caught two passes for seven yards apiece.
The usage might be unpredictable, but the Dallas matchup is too good to pass on to keep Tracy on the bench. New York has the sixth-easiest schedule for RBs for the rest of the season.
Wan’Dale Robinson and Eric Gray contributed minimally to the run game, with Gray losing one yard on his lone attempt. Singletary and Gray each saw one red-zone carry.
Malik Nabers led the receiving corps with six catches on nine targets (30% Target share, 49% air yards share) for 64 yards (one red-zone target), averaging 10.7 yards per reception and a long of 21 yards. He didn’t see his first target until the second half and was vocally frustrated after the game.
New York, we have a Tommy DeVito problem.
Wan’Dale Robinson was efficient, catching all five of his targets for 47 yards, including a 16-yard long catch. 17% Target share.
Darius Slayton had two red-zone targets but only ran a route on half the dropbacks – the same as Jalin Hyatt.
Tight end Theo Johnson had three catches on six targets (20% Target share) for 39 yards, including a 23-yard reception, and led the team with 33 yards after the catch.
Tommy DeVito “managed” the game well, with no turnovers, but the Giants struggled to find explosive plays through the air.
Nabers and Robinson provided reliable targets, combining for 11 receptions and over 100 yards.
The Giants remaining schedule: @ DAL, vs NO, vs BAL, @ ATL and vs IND. It’s a great schedule for WRs, but it doesn’t matter with the current QB play.
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Detroit Lions
Buy Jameson Williams & David Montgomery & Jahmyr Gibbs | Sell Sam LaPorta | Drop Jared Goff
Jared Goff completed 26 of 36 passes for 269 yards, posting a passer rating of 93.4. Although he did not throw any touchdowns or interceptions, he managed the offense effectively, averaging 7.5 yards per attempt.
Jahmyr Gibbs starred in the ground game, rushing 21 times for 90 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 4.3 yards per carry. His longest run of the day was 17 yards.
Gibbs continues to shine as a dual threat, adding two rushing touchdowns and contributing to the passing game. His dynamic presence adds a significant weapon to the Lions’ offense.
David Montgomery added solid support with 37 rushing yards and a touchdown on eight carries, averaging 4.6 yards per carry.
Craig Reynolds contributed with a single carry for 6 yards, while Jameson Williams also had one rushing attempt for 4 yards.
Williams led the team in receiving yards, catching five of seven targets for 64 yards, averaging 12.8 yards per catch, with a long of 21 yards and 29 yards after the catch.
Amon-Ra St. Brown was productive, hauling in six of seven targets for 62 yards, averaging 10.3 yards per reception, with 23 yards after the catch.
Williams and St. Brown each tied with a 21% Target share and 30% or more of the team’s air yards.
Tim Patrick was a perfect four-for-four on targets, gaining 55 yards and averaging 13.8 yards per catch, with a long of 27 yards (Detroit’s biggest play on offense). He had a red-zone catch from the nine-yard line.
David Montgomery showed his versatility, catching all three of his targets for 36 yards, leading the team with 36 yards after the catch. Monty left this game with an injury, hence his snap share at 29% (season-low). He has a shoulder injury, so it is something to monitor with them playing on a short week. Monty says he will be fine, but this is what players always tend to say.
In 10 games, Sonic and Knuckles have combined for 21 out of 22 top-22 RB finishes. No backfield has been more consistent. They also have the No. 1 schedule left for RBs.
In Week 12, they combined for eight red-zone attempts. According to Next Gen Stats, this was the ninth game where both Jahmyr Gibbs (two) and David Montgomery (one) scored rushing touchdowns, which is tied for third all-time for a pair of teammates.
The Bears have allowed 10 of the last 11 RBs they have faced to go OVER their rushing yards prop. More than 71.5 rushing yards for Gibbs on Thanksgiving. Thank me later.
Tight end Brock Wright caught both of his targets for 24 yards, averaging 12 yards per reception.
Tight end Sam LaPorta had three receptions on six targets for 19 yards—18% Target share. The underwhelming season for LaPorta continues. However, he did run badly in this particular game, as he did have two red-zone targets but didn’t catch either. I could very much see a TD score on Thanksgiving.
Gibbs contributed three catches for 9 yards on three targets, adding 23 yards after the catch. His 67% snap share was a season-high.
Kalif Raymond was targeted once but did not record a reception. Raymond is going to miss the next few weeks with a foot injury. This locks Patrick into a larger WR3 role, with St. Brown taking on more punt return duties. Tom Kennedy will likely hand off kick-return duties moving forward.
Other than selling LaPorta and buying Patrick/Williams (probably too late now), there are not many takeaways from the Lions. They are a juggernaut on offense.
Detroit plays vs CHI, vs GB, vs BUF, @ CHI and @ SF to finish the season. Detroit passed their first scheduling quirk by playing outdoors for the first time all season a few weeks ago in Green Bay. Still, it could get dicey at Chicago in Week 16 if it’s cold and/or bad weather. At least the Bears’ run defense has struggled, putting Detroit in the driver’s seat even in the fantasy football playoffs.
We shall see how that run defense matches up when these teams face off on Thanksgiving.
Note that the passing game doesn’t have the same soft schedule. They have the 32nd-ranked schedule for the rest of the season for QBs. I think a sneaky “landmine” move might be to drop Goff.
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Indianapolis Colts
Hold Anthony Richardson & Jonathan Taylor | Add Adonai Mitchell
Anthony Richardson struggled through the air, completing 11 of 28 attempts for 172 yards. While he avoided turnovers, he posted a passer rating of 60.4 and averaged 6.1 yards per attempt.
Richardson was a standout on the ground, rushing 10 times for 61 yards, averaging 6.1 yards per carry, with a long run of 17 yards. He also carried the ball once in the red zone for eight yards.
According to Next Gen Stats, Richardson completed only 2-of-14 passes for 33 yards when the Lions pressured him in Week 12, compared to 9-of-14 passes for 139 yards with a clean pocket.
His 38.5% completion percentage against pressure this season is now the 7th-lowest in a season since 2018. The Lions generated pressure on 14 of 30 dropbacks for a 46.7% pressure rate that was their highest in a game this season, and Alim McNeill generated four quick pressures (under 2.5 seconds), tied for the most by any defensive tackle in a game in 2024.
Do you know what defense can’t generate pressure? The Patriots.
Take the MORE THAN on Richardson’s 177.5 passing yards number this week. Only two QBs all season have failed to hit 180 passing yards against the Patriots’ defense this season.
Jonathan Taylor added 35 yards on 11 carries, averaging 3.2 yards per carry, with a long of 14 yards. He had one carry in the entire second half. Taylor’s best rush came back on a holding call. He still played 96% of the snaps but went 0-for-2 rushing in the red zone. And this week, it’s the Patriots.
Great matchup before a Week 14 bye week. After the bye week, the schedule is: @ DEN, vs. TEN, and @ NYG. Tough sledding until the Giants.
Michael Pittman Jr. dominated the receiving game, catching 6 of 7 targets (28% Target share) for 96 yards, averaging 16 yards per reception. He was second on the team in air yards and first in yards after the catch (41)—back-to-back weeks as the Colts’ target leader.
Alec Pierce had one big catch for 39 yards on four targets, showcasing his deep-threat ability. But, like in almost every single Pierce outing, the box score does not tell the whole story. He had 123 air yards – good for a 35% air yards share.
Josh Downs hauled in 3 of nine targets for 27 yards, including an 11-yard reception with 28 yards after the catch. Downs got hurt in the 4th quarter and caught a 21-yard pass negated by holding.
He is considered week-to-week and is a long shot to play on Sunday against the Patriots.
Adonai Mitchell caught one of three targets for 10 yards (12% Target share). He only ran a route on 31% of the dropbacks, so he was once again hyper-targeted (33% target rate per route run). He should have scored last week and had another red-zone target.
Considering how bad the Patriots’ defense is, Mitchell could be set up nicely with Downs out. The rookie has a 30.5% target rate per route run this season.
Ashton Dulin, Kylen Granson, and Andrew Ogletree were each targeted but did not record any receptions. Ogletree dropped a potential red-zone TD.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, Indianapolis’s schedule for quarterbacks is average (although better than some of their most recent matchups). For running backs, it’s also average.
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Tennessee Titans
Add Will Levis | Stock Up Tony Pollard | Hold Calvin Ridley
Will Levis had a strong outing, completing 18 of 24 passes for 278 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. He averaged an impressive 11.6 yards per attempt, finishing with a 123.3 passer rating.
Tyler Boyd attempted one pass, which fell incomplete.
Tony Pollard dominated the ground game with 24 carries for 119 yards and a red-zone touchdown, averaging 5 yards per carry with a long run of 27 yards.
Without Tyjae Spears, Pollard played 94% of the snaps. Also, his toughest stretch of games seems to be over, slating him nicely for the next couple of weeks.
Julius Chestnut had one carry for three yards on just two snaps.
Pollard contributed in the passing game as well, catching three of five targets for 10 yards, boasting a 20% Target share. Chestnut added a two-yard reception on his lone target.
Will Levis chipped in 10 yards on eight rushing attempts, averaging 1.3 yards per carry.
Calvin Ridley led the receiving corps with five receptions on six targets for 93 yards, averaging 18.6 yards per catch. His longest reception was a spectacular 63-yard play. He also had a red-zone target, but he did not score.
Chigoziem Okonkwo turned his lone target into a 70-yard touchdown, showcasing his explosiveness after the catch. This is why we always bet the under on Okonkwo’s receptions props, never his receiving yards.
Tyler Boyd was reliable, catching all six of his targets for 55 yards with an average of 9.2 yards per reception and a long of 19 yards. It was a surprisingly efficient game from the Titans’ slot WR, as he led the team with a 24% Target share.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine made two catches on five targets for 48 yards and a touchdown, averaging 24 yards per reception with a long of 38 yards. This man just can’t stop scoring touchdowns. He had 116 air yards as well.
Nick Vannett was targeted once but did not record a catch.
Will Levis continues to show promise, effectively spreading the ball to key playmakers and capitalizing on deep shots. And the schedule is divine for a strong finish.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Titans have the 7th-ranked schedule for WRs for the rest of the season and are tied for the No.1-ranked quarterbacks.
The rest of the schedule: @ WAS, vs. JAC, vs. CIN, @ IND, and @ JAC.
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Houston Texans
Add C.J. Stroud | Hold Tank Dell & Joe Mixon | Stock Up Nico Collins
C.J. Stroud completed 20 of 33 pass attempts for 247 yards, throwing two touchdowns and two interceptions. He averaged 7.5 yards per attempt and finished with a 78.7 passer rating.
Joe Mixon struggled on the ground, managing only 22 yards on 14 carries for a 1.6 yards per carry average, with a long of 8 yards. The Titans run defense is no joke.
Mixon at least added value as a pass-catcher, securing five of six targets for 23 yards.
C.J. Stroud contributed 18 rushing yards on three attempts, averaging 6 yards per carry.
Nico Collins led the Texans’ receiving group, hauling in five of nine targets (29% Target share, 39% air yards share) for 92 yards and a touchdown. He averaged 18.4 yards per reception, with a long of 56 yards. Collins for the second straight game had another TD called back on a penalty.
His snaps and routes were back up, and he smashed. Collins WR1szn is full go. Jacksonville Jaguars up next. Gulp.
Tank Dell made the most of his opportunities, catching three of five targets for 72 yards, including a 39-yard reception. He left production on the table – like he seemingly has done most of this season – with 100 air yards.
Tight end Cade Stover had a solid performance with three catches on four targets for 26 yards and a touchdown, averaging 8.7 yards per catch. Dalton Schultz was efficient, catching both his targets for 20 yards, averaging 10 yards per reception. Schultz plays the majority of snaps, but he just can’t command targets in this offense.
Stover is an interesting guy to keep tabs on though, given his history with Stroud. He was targeted on 57% of his routes in Week 12. Schultz could never.
Robert Woods contributed a single reception for 8 yards.
John Metchie III caught one of three targets for 6 yards.
Xavier Hutchinson was targeted once but did not record a reception.
Collins and Dell continue to provide explosive plays, with Collins accounting for a 56-yard gain and Dell contributing a 39-yard reception.
Houston plays the Jaguars before their bye week. They open the fantasy football playoffs against the Dolphins, Chiefs, and Ravens. If you have them, you hold them.
Stroud is usable against the Jaguars, but you don’t need to hold him through the bye week with the Dolphins/Chiefs.
Note that Stroud’s best fantasy game this season came against the Jaguars back in Week 4. 345 passing yards. He has 20-plus fantasy points in three career games against the Jags.
New England Patriots
Hold/Add Drake Maye | Hold Hunter Henry | Buy Rhamondre Stevenson | Add DeMario Douglas
Drake Maye completed 22 of 37 attempts for 222 yards, throwing one touchdown and one interception, resulting in a passer rating of 74.4. His 6.0 yards per attempt showcased a modest passing day with limited explosive plays.
Kendrick Bourne also attempted a pass on a trick play, but it was unsuccessful.
Antonio Gibson led the backfield with 31 yards on six carries, averaging 5.2 yards per attempt, including a long of 14 yards.
Maye contributed with his legs, adding 26 yards on five attempts, also averaging 5.2 yards per carry.
JaMycal Hasty had one explosive carry for 15 yards.
Rhamondre Stevenson struggled to find lanes, totaling 13 yards on eight carries, with an average of 1.6 yards per rush. He led with five carries in the first half but was just ineffective. He caught another pass for 19 yards but it came back on holding.
This was one of Stevenson’s worst games of the season, but it comes with the territory of being on a 3-9 Patriots team behind a patchwork offensive line. He played a season-low 42% snap share. Don’t get carried away thinking Gibson is going to take over now after he played one more snap in a Week 12 blowout. The whole offense was terrible, not just Stevenson. They had zero offensive red-zone plays.
He’s back on his streak as the Amari Cooper of RBs this season came to an end. In his first nine games played this season. Five top 10 finishes (including three inside the top 5). Then three outside the top 40 overall.
Over the last two weeks, he has been in the RB2 range. It’s great that he has increased his floor production, which had been very shaky in previous weeks. Unfortunately, Week 12 was another shaky finish, with him finishing outside the top-40 RBs.
Like I said last week, I think I’ve reached the point with Stevenson that I only care about chasing his potential ceiling. In closer games like home versus the Colts, he should be productive.
DeMario Douglas added one rushing yard on a single attempt.
Douglas also led the team in receiving yards, catching five of eight targets (19% Target share) for 62 yards, including a long reception of 27 yards. His 49 yards after the catch were a team-high.
Tight end Austin Hooper was efficient, hauling in all four of his targets for 59 yards and a touchdown, with an impressive 38-yard long catch. He scored on a long TD off an extended play from Maye—great play by Maye, but more “right place, right time” for Hooper.
Hunter Henry was a more reliable tight end option, catching five of eight targets for 44 yards, averaging 8.8 yards per reception. 21% Target share and team-high 26% air yards share.
Kendrick Bourne had three catches for 30 yards on five targets but played ahead of the two rookies.
Gibson and Ja’Lynn Polk each caught one pass, gaining 14 and seven yards, respectively.
Kayshon Boutte had one reception for six yards on four targets, while JaMycal Hasty caught both of his targets for minimal gains. Boutte saw more air yards, to no avail. He continues to lead the team in routes, but it seems like this number might dip south sooner rather than later. He had two OPIs in this game. It’s not a ringing endorsement for more playing time.
Also, not sure if there was a demotion or punishment, but rookie Javon Baker actually started this game and had one target in the third quarter. Eleven snaps were a season-high for Baker.
The Patriots have the No. 1 schedule for fantasy WRs for the rest of the season. Late season surge for Baker? Fingers crossed.
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Miami Dolphins
Sell Jaylen Waddle | Buy De’Von Achane | Stock Up Jonnu Smith | Stock Up Raheem Mostert | Stock Down Jaylen Wright
Tua Tagovailoa had a dominant performance, completing 29 of 40 passes for 317 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions, resulting in a passer rating of 128.9. He averaged 7.9 yards per attempt, effectively distributing the ball to his playmakers.
According to Next Gen Stats, Tagovailoa has a 70-plus completion percentage in five straight games, which is good for the longest active streak in the NFL.
De’Von Achane led the backfield with 10 carries for 32 yards, averaging 3.2 yards per carry. He was the only RB with more than one touch in the first half. Achane excelled as a receiver out of the backfield, securing three of four targets for 24 yards and two receiving touchdowns.
Jaylen Wright contributed 28 yards on seven carries, highlighted by a long run of 12 yards. He fumbled on an exchange with No. 2 quarterback Skylar Thompson, which led to a Patriots fumble-six touchdown. He didn’t get another touch after the critical error.
Raheem Mostert had two carries for five yards, while Malik Washington and Tagovailoa added minimal contributions to the ground game. Mostert saw the only other red-zone carry for the Dolphins’ backfield while seeing the first carry after Achane.
The lack of consistency from the non-Achane Dolphins RBs doesn’t give me confidence in either for the rest of the season. If anything, it just means more work for Achane with every game, which is so critical for the Dolphins to keep their playoff hopes alive.
The final backfield snaps were 53% for Achane, 31% for Mostert and 19% for Wright.
Jaylen Waddle led all receivers with eight catches on nine targets (23% Target share) for 144 yards and a touchdown, including an 18-yard average per reception and a team-high 53 yards after the catch.
According to Next Gen Stats, Waddle matched up against Marcus Jones on 19 of 36 routes (52.8%), hauling in all five targets for 104 yards with Jones in coverage.
Finally! Waddle came through for us! YLTSI.
Tight end Jonnu Smith was a key weapon, catching nine of 11 targets (28% Target share) for 87 yards and a touchdown. His 61 yards after the catch underscored his ability to create after the catch.
He had NINE targets in the first half alone, in addition to four red-zone targets.
Smith has been the team’s Target share leader for the last FOUR weeks. Considering the usage, it’s not surprising that he is producing, but to this extent is the most shocking part. And as pumped as I am for Waddle hitting against the Patriots, it was the perfect storm. The matchup was fantastic. I’m not as optimistic moving forward because the reasons why Waddle wasn’t great for many previous weeks are still present, i.e., Smith and Achane. Those guys are going to get more targets in games against better defenses. If I could sell high on Waddle after this game, I would.
Keep in mind that Smith still out-targeted him in Waddle’s best game of the season.
He is very matchup-dependent. And consider me not excited to play him on the road in Green Bay on Thursday night (the forecast calls for below-freezing temperatures). Given how bad the Packers linebackers are at covering, I’d rather play the Dolphins tight end.
Take the MORE THAN Smith’s 40.5 receiving yards. All projections have him closer to 47-plus receiving yards. He’s gone MORE than in six of his last seven games, including four straight.
Per FantasyPros’ SOS tool, the Dolphins have an average schedule for fantasy WRs.
Tyreek Hill caught five of six targets for 48 yards, maintaining a strong 9.6 yards per reception. He had two red-zone targets but didn’t score. He also drew the toughest matchup against Patriots top CB, Christian Gonzalez.
Durham Smythe and Julian Hill each contributed with single catches of eight yards, while Malik Washington managed a one-yard reception.
Odell Beckham Jr. had three targets but caught zero of them. However, he was targeted in the end zone again. I liked him as a long-shot TD scorer in Week 12, so I felt justified by the process that he did at least come close to scoring.
Miami will play @ GB on Thanksgiving night, then take on NYJ at home, @ HOU, vs. SF, and @ CLE.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Dolphins have a below-average schedule for quarterbacks.
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Minnesota Vikings
Buy Justin Jefferson | Stock Up Aaron Jones | Buy T.J. Hockenson | Sell Jordan Addison | Add Cam Akers
Sam Darnold had a strong performance, completing 22 of 34 attempts for 330 yards and two touchdowns with no turnovers. He averaged 9.7 yards per attempt and posted a 116.1 passer rating.
Nick Mullens made a single pass attempt, completing it for 14 yards.
Aaron Jones was the workhorse, rushing 22 times for 106 yards and a touchdown. His day included an explosive 41-yard run. Cam Akers contributed with 19 yards on just three carries, averaging 6.3 yards per attempt.
Jones added value in the passing game, catching 3 of 4 targets for 23 yards, including a 14-yard gain. There was also a strong force trying to get Jones in the end zone. He totaled a whopping 10 red-zone opportunities to break his four-game TD drought.
I’ve voiced concerns about Jones’ workload in previous editions of the forecast, and we are starting to see it reduced. But in this game, he was not held back. 79% snap share marked his highest since Week 4. I’d imagine the workload level out moving forward between Akers and Jones.
Jones fumbled in this game but didn’t seem to alter his playing time.
Regardless, Akers needs to be rostered everywhere, given Jones’ injury history and the small injuries he’s dealt with this season.
Darnold scrambled twice but lost 1 yard.
Addison dominated, catching 8 of 9 targets for 162 yards and a red-zone touchdown, including a 69-yard play. He had two deep receptions (20+ air yards) for 114 yards, and he also led the team with 63 yards after the catch.
Your weekly reminder on the second-year WR. Addison’s hearing was originally slated for October 7th, stemming from his off-field incident earlier this offseason. However, as of that date in question, the arraignment and plea hearing for Addison, stemming from two misdemeanor charges in July for DUI, is now scheduled for Dec. 3, according to Superior Court of California online records per ESPN’s Kevin Seifert. That would be before Week 14 and the fantasy football playoffs.
If you have him, you play him in Week 13. And you hope this issue gets resolved later on.
T.J. Hockenson was a consistent target for Darnold, hauling in 7 of 9 passes for 114 yards, including a 34-yard reception. He led the Vikings with a 29% Target share, as Josh Oliver missed this game with an injury.
Hock’s routes were back up to 76%, which was excellent, as he played a season-high 68% snap share. I don’t want to accredit it all to Oliver’s injury, but something to keep in mind if Oliver returns in Week 13—28% target rate per route run.
Johnny Mundt and Cam Akers each contributed with one reception for short gains, while Jalen Nailor turned his lone catch into a 5-yard touchdown.
Minnesota at home versus ARI in Week 13. Then it’s vs ATL, vs CHI, @ SEA and vs GB.
This is a good schedule for the offense to stay on an upward trend.
Hold your Vikings tight if you don’t see any great deals. However, given that Jones is an older RB who has already had a soft-body tissue injury, among others, this season, add/hold Akers. Also, entertain the idea of “selling high” on Jones based on the injury history and the fact that he is getting an overwhelming amount of touches.
Jones is pacing for over 300 touches.
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Chicago Bears
Stock Up Caleb Williams | Buy Rome Odunze | Sell D.J. Moore & Cole Kmet| Stock Up Keenan Allen | Sell D’Andre Swift
Caleb Williams led the Bears’ offense, completing 32 of 47 attempts for 340 yards and two touchdowns. He avoided turnovers, posting a passer rating of 103.1 and averaging 7.2 yards per attempt.
D.J. Moore attempted one pass but was unsuccessful.
Williams showcased his mobility with 33 rushing yards on six attempts, including a long run of 10 yards.
According to Next Gen Stats, Williams generated +4.4 EPA, his second consecutive game of positive EPA. He made a ton of high-level throws.
The Vikings blitzed on 28.3% of Williams’ dropbacks (3rd-lowest rate this season), allowing 10 completions on 13 attempts for 156 yards and two touchdowns. Williams averaged 12.0 yards per attempt against the blitz, his most since Week 5 against the Panthers.
Williams, over the last two weeks, has 23-plus completions, 230-plus passing yards, and 31-plus pass attempts. The Lions’ defense ranks second in the NFL in completions allowed at home this season (22.2). MORE THAN 21.5 completions for the Bears’ rookie QB on Prizepicks this week. Over in his last two games and three of his last four. He has also gone over in all but one road game played this season.
D’Andre Swift managed 30 yards on 13 carries but struggled with efficiency at just 2.3 yards per carry. Notably, Swift out-carried Roschon Johnson 10 to 2 in the first half.
Swift played 55% of the snaps to Johnson’s 38%. We have a committee on our hands in Chicago’s backfield.
Swift was effective in the passing game, turning four targets into three receptions for 35 yards, including a 30-yard play.
Johnson added one reception for 10 yards.
Per the FantasyPros Strength of Schedule tool, the Bears also have the fifth-worst schedule for fantasy RBs for the rest of the season.
Do not rely on Swift, who is losing out on high-value touches to Johnson.
Moore added 13 yards on a single carry, while Johnson contributed 2 yards on two attempts and scored the lone rushing touchdown. For the second straight week, RJ scored and saw the majority of red-zone usage. 6 to 1 in red-zone touches in favor of Johnson the last two games.
D.J. Moore had a monster performance, catching all 7 of his targets for 106 yards and a red-zone touchdown. He was dynamic after the catch, accumulating 86 YAC and recording a long reception of 37 yards. I bet the under on Moore’s as the new bubble screen king, but his moves after the catch burned me to a crisp. His aDOT was 3.5 yards. He also finished fourth in targets on the day (15% Target share). There are some signs of concern moving forward if he is completely limited to this short ADOT role.
Keenan Allen was Williams’ most-targeted receiver with 15, hauling in 9 catches for 86 yards and a red-zone score on one of his two red-zone targets. He posted a long reception of 40 yards. According to Next Gen Stats, most of his production came aligned in the slot (8 catches for 84 yards, TD).
Allen caught 3 of his four tight window targets (less than 1 yard of separation) for 36 yards.
He commanded a 32% Target share and 120-plus air yards. It’s a vintage game for Allen. And he’s got a great matchup next week on Thanksgiving against the slot funnel Lions.
Tight end Cole Kmet was a reliable option, catching 7 of his 10 targets for 64 yards with a long of 20–21% Target share and 84 air yards. He also had two red-zone targets but didn’t score. Be careful chasing him off waivers, though. The Lions are the No.1-ranked defense against tight ends this season.
Rome Odunze was targeted 10 times but caught just five passes for 39 yards. He had the ideal usage you love to see – 110 air yards, multiple end-zone red-zone looks – but he fell short.
Buy him low everywhere across the board. He plays enough from the slot – at least 40% – the last two weeks to benefit from the positive matchup versus Detroit.
Williams relied on Odunze in key moments in this game. Fourth and three, Williams connected with his fellow rookie on a 14-yard dart that helped Chicago force overtime. From Weeks 13-17, the Bears play @ DET, @ SF, @ MIN, DET and SEA.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Bears are tied for the No.31-ranked schedule for quarterbacks and 30th for receivers.
The only Bear I’ll leave the light on for is Odunze. He is an uber-talented rookie and leads the Bears in air yards this season amid difficult target competition.
In the last two weeks, he trails only Allen on the team in Target share (25% versus 29%) despite 223 air yards. His explosion game is coming.
Therefore, I am going MORE than 42.5 receiving yards for Odunze on Prizepicks. He has seven straight games with at least 39 yards. And no defense has allowed more targets to No. 3 WRs than the Lions this season. #Kaboom.
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Kansas City Chiefs
Hold Xavier Worthy | Sell Kareem Hunt & Isiah Pacheco | Stock Down DeAndre Hopkins | Hold Travis Kelce
The Kansas City Chiefs delivered a dominant offensive performance in their Week 12 game, with Patrick Mahomes leading the charge. Mahomes completed 27 of 37 passes for 269 yards, throwing three touchdowns without any interceptions, resulting in a stellar 120.2 passer rating. Mahomes also added 60 rushing yards on five attempts, including a long run of 33 yards, showcasing his mobility.
According to Next Gen Stats, Mahomes completed 7 of his 10 pass attempts for 122 yards and three touchdowns on downfield passes (10+ air yards) against the Panthers, generating a season-high +12.1% completion percentage over expected on such passes.
This was Mahomes’ first game with three touchdowns over 10 air yards since 2020. Mahomes completed 14 of 19 passes for 107 yards on passes under 10 air yards (-8.6% CPOE).
On the ground, Kareem Hunt carried the ball 16 times for 68 yards, averaging 4.3 yards per carry, and provided consistent production. He totaled five red-zone opportunities, but he couldn’t find the end zone.
Samaje Perine and Mecole Hardman chipped in with 13 and 15 rushing yards, respectively, on minimal carries.
Isiah Pacheco is currently on injured reserve but is expected to return for the Chiefs’ Week 13 game. After failing to fire against the Panthers, this was likely Hunt’s last chance to help fantasy managers.
Hunt managers need to realize the dream is over. However, I am still very skeptical about how effective Pacheco will be coming off the broken leg injury, but I think his presence will hurt Hunt’s bottom line.
Per the FantasyPros Strength of Schedule tool, the Chiefs have a bottom-seven schedule for fantasy RBs for the rest of the season. Woof.
Through the air, tight end Noah Gray was the standout performer, catching all four of his targets for 66 yards and two touchdowns, including a long reception of 35 yards. Part of this was matchup-based, but Gray’s getting more involved in the offense. Last week, I cited his season-high in routes (I also said he won’t catch two TDs every week, LOL).
His routes weren’t as high here, but he took full advantage of the soft Panthers matchup for tight ends.
Travis Kelce was also heavily involved, hauling in six of his eight targets for 62 yards, with a long gain of 27 yards. Xavier Worthy contributed with four receptions on six targets for 46 yards, averaging 11.5 yards per catch. The rookie also led the team with 62 air yards.
Kelce just got unlucky with Gray scoring the two TDs. Kelce was Mahomes’ go-to option in key moments, with his six receptions accounting for a 22% Target share.
But two weeks in a row, Gray has made life hard on Kelce’s fantasy managers. I don’t think that changes for the rest of the season. But Kelce’s two TD game might not be too far away, considering he also had two red-zone targets against the Panthers.
DeAndre Hopkins made his presence felt with five receptions on seven targets (two red-zone targets) for 35 yards and a touchdown, while Hunt continued to contribute in the passing game with three catches for 19 yards. Justin Watson, Perine, and JuJu Smith-Schuster each had minor roles, combining for 32 receiving yards. JuJu had a 20-yard catch nullified on a penalty.
What’s more concerning is that Hopkins continues to play a limited role. He ran fewer routes and played fewer snaps than Smith-Schuster. Justin Watson actually played more than both of them.
Now Hopkins still posted very strong per route numbers – 32% target rate per route run – so it’s not full-blown panic. But if he doesn’t score, he would have busted this past week. Like a lot of Chiefs assets, they need to score to get there for fantasy purposes.
Gray led the team with two receiving touchdowns, continuing to thrive in red-zone opportunities.
Hunt displayed versatility, finishing with 87 scrimmage yards (68 rushing, 19 receiving) and remaining a critical component of the Chiefs’ offense. But he also played 55% of the snaps, his lowest rate since Week 4.
KC will play vs LV, vs LAC, @ CLE, vs HOU and @ PIT.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Chiefs have a top-five schedule for WRs for the rest of the season.
Buy the Chiefs passing game, and sell the backfield.
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Carolina Panthers
Stock Up Chuba Hubbard | Sell Jonathon Brooks | Add Xavier Legette | Stock Up David Moore
Bryce Young completed 21 of 35 pass attempts for 263 yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions. He posted a passer rating of 92.9 while averaging 7.5 yards per attempt.
Per Next Gen Stats, the Panthers were only the third team in the Andy Reid era (since 2013), including playoffs, to score on 75-plus percent of their drives against the Chiefs.
Chuba Hubbard led the backfield with 16 carries for 58 yards and a touchdown, averaging 3.6 yards per carry. His longest run was 13 yards. Hubbard also caught 1 of 5 targets for just 2 yards and dominated the red-zone opportunities with ten.
Young contributed with three carries for 20 yards, showing efficiency with a 6.7 yards per carry average.
Jonathon Brooks had two rushes for 7 yards, averaging 3.5 yards per carry.
Hubbard is the Panthers RB1 for the rest of the season.
The carries were just two versus one between Hubbard and Brooks, with Carolina opening the game pass-heavy. Still, Hubbard played 89% of the snaps to Brooks’ 8% (five snaps played). Brooks seems like nothing more than a speculative handcuff.
David Moore dominated the air attack, securing 6 of 10 targets for 81 yards and a touchdown. He averaged 13.5 yards per catch, with a long reception of 21 yards. He owned a 30% Target share and a 43% air yards share. He was a favorite target in the red zone, with four red-zone targets.
Consider me shocked. In the last three games, Moore leads Carolina in targets and air yards.
Adam Thielen was efficient, catching 3 of 4 targets for 57 yards, averaging 19 yards per reception with a 36-yard long operating as the primary slot WR. It spells trouble for an injured Jalen Coker, who might get squeezed to perimeter WR reps with Thielen healthy. Tampa Bay is also solid against slot wide receivers, so I think I’d rather leave Thielen on waivers.
Xavier Legette added four catches on six targets for 56 yards, including a long catch of 34 yards. He earned an 18% Target share with just under 90 air yards. The rookie was the routes leader (90%), with Moore second and Thielen third.
Tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders hauled in all 3 of his targets for 49 yards, averaging 16.3 yards per catch, with a 28-yard highlight play. However, Sanders was carted off the field after being flipped on a tackle. He did not return.
Deven Thompkins managed three receptions on three targets for 13 yards but struggled to generate significant yardage after the catch.
Every Panthers WR saw at least one red-zone target.
Tommy Tremble contributed minimally, with one reception for 5 yards on two red-zone targets. He will see the biggest playing time bump if Sanders misses extended time.
Coming out of their narrow Week 12 loss to KC bye week, Carolina will face the Buccaneers, Eagles, Cowboys, Cardinals, and Buccaneers. It’s a pretty good playoff schedule.
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Dallas Cowboys
Stock Up Rico Dowdle
Cooper Rush efficiently commanded the Cowboys’ offense, completing 24 of 32 passes for 247 yards and 2 touchdowns with no interceptions. He posted an impressive passer rating of 117.6 and averaged 7.7 yards per attempt.
Rush completed 24 of his 32 pass attempts for 247 yards and two touchdowns and recorded an average time to throw of 2.38 seconds, the quickest by a Cowboys quarterback in a game this season.
Rush excelled against man coverage, completing 8 of 11 passes when facing man for 129 yards and both of his touchdowns. Rush’s 151.1 passer rating against man coverage is the highest by a Cowboys quarterback since Dak Prescott posted a perfect 158.3 in Week 8, 2023 (min. five attempts against man).
This was an overall crazy game with a wacky finish. According to Next Gen Stats, the 31 total points in the final 3:30 of the game are the second most in the Super Bowl era (including playoffs).
Rico Dowdle carried the load on the ground, logging 19 carries for 86 yards, averaging 4.5 yards per attempt with a long run of 9 yards. He also fumbled but still played 61% of the snaps (an increase from 49% last week).
Ezekiel Elliott struggled in limited work, managing just 6 yards on three carries.
Backfield contributions came from Dowdle, who caught all 3 of his targets for 12 yards, and Hunter Luepke with a 10-yard reception. Dowdle finished with 22 touches in Week 12.
Dallas has the fifth-easiest schedule for RBs for the rest of the season.
Great matchup on deck this week against the Giants.
I will say that he might not get there as a receiver. His Prizepicks line is set at 14.5 yards, which he has been under in three straight games with Cooper Rush as the QB. He has a negative ADOT of nearly three yards over that span, making it easy for him to lose yardage on his targets.
LESS THAN 14.5 receiving yards for Dowdle in Week 13.
Cooper Rush and CeeDee Lamb each had single carries for minimal gains, while Trey Lance recorded a 3-yard loss on his lone attempt.
CeeDee Lamb led the receiving corps with 10 catches on 12 targets for 67 yards (37% Target share), averaging 6.7 yards per catch with a long of 13 yards while also contributing 28 yards after the catch—a total of 41 air yards.
Tight end Luke Schoonmaker was a standout, hauling in 3 of 4 targets (13% Target share) for 55 yards and a touchdown, averaging 18.3 yards per reception with a 24-yard long play. However, Schoonmaker didn’t play the full Jake Ferguson role. He played 65% of the snaps and ran a route on just 56% of the dropbacks.
Jalen Brooks added a big play, catching a 41-yard pass on his lone reception.
Brandon Spann-Ford provided steady contributions from the tight end spot, catching both of his targets for 24 yards. He played 50% of the offensive snaps.
We aren’t even considering Schoonmaker as an option without the 22-yard TD score in the fourth quarter. Leave him on waivers.
Jalen Tolbert added 22 yards and a touchdown on two receptions (two red-zone targets), including a 16-yard gain.
Other notable contributions came from KaVontae Turpin and Jonathan Mingo, who combined for two receptions and 16 yards. Turpin also scored on a punt return touchdown.
Dallas also went back to Jalen Brooks over Ryan Flournoy as the traditional WR3. Brooks led the team in air yards (32%).
The rest of the schedule is as follows: NYG, vs CIN, @ CAR, vs TB, @ PHI. It’s a very juicy playoff schedule, but without Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb remains a volume-dependent fantasy WR2. Not useless by any means, but limited in some capacity.
Note that all his games with Rush back in 2022 weren’t great. It’s going to be up-and-down, and I’m fearful of being on the wrong side of the Rush experience come fantasy football playoff time. He could destroy you against the Eagles’ strong defense if he duds out.
But other than at Philly, the schedule is solid for Rush. Third-best for QBs rest of the season. Although a closer look suggests that Lamb might not benefit as much.
It is the second-worst schedule for WRs for the rest of the season.
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Washington Commanders
Add Noah Brown | Hold Zach Ertz | Add Jeremy McNichols | Stock Down Terry McLaurin
Quarterback Jayden Daniels completed 25 of 38 attempts for 275 yards, throwing two touchdowns and two interceptions. He averaged 7.2 yards per attempt and posted a passer rating of 82.7.
Daniels was the team’s leading rusher, recording seven carries for 74 yards, including a 23-yard long run and a rushing touchdown.
Jeremy McNichols contributed 22 yards on three carries, averaging 7.3 yards per attempt on a 24% snap rate.
Austin Ekeler managed 22 yards on nine carries, struggling with a 2.4 yards per carry average. Ekeler got hurt on a kick-off at the end of the game. He is back in the concussion protocol – he missed games earlier this season with a concussion.
Brian Robinson got hurt early in the game but returned to action. He was injured on his first carry but finished with zero touches in the second half.
With RB injuries piling up, we could see McNichols in a featured role come Week 13. I understand the matchup is brutal against the run-stuffing Titans, but the touches and TD upside will be there for McNichols, who has had his moments this season. The team clearly trusts him.
Dyami Brown and Robinson added 14 and 13 rushing yards, respectively, on limited touches.
Terry McLaurin was a standout, catching 5 of 6 targets for 102 yards and a touchdown (80-plus air yards). His day included a massive 86-yard reception, showcasing his big-play ability with 58 yards after the catch. The majority of his production game on a touchdown in the fourth quarter. McLaurin had two targets in the first half.
Not ideal by any means. TMC is very much threading the needle of the WR trust tree by very much outperforming his usage. Eventually, things will catch up to him.
He has been third in Target share in the last three weeks (14%), tied with Austin Ekeler. The Commanders also have a bottom-five schedule for the rest of the season for WRs.
Noah Brown led the team in targets (10, 29% Target share) and caught six passes for 71 yards, averaging 11.8 yards per catch with a long of 19 yards. Brown earned a 36% air yards share with over 100 air yards.
Over the last month, Brown has led the Commanders in targets (23% Target share) and air yards (268).
Zach Ertz contributed as a reliable option, hauling in 6 of 8 targets (24% Target share) for 38 yards and a touchdown (two red-zone targets).
Dyami Brown added 22 yards on two receptions, averaging 11 yards per catch with a long of 20 yards.
Additional contributions came from John Bates, who turned his lone target into a 13-yard gain, and Brian Robinson, who gained 11 yards on his only reception.
The Commanders also lost two pieces of their OL in Week 12’s loss to the Cowboys.
And we have hit the Kliff Cliff. Kingsbury’s offenses have been notorious for sputtering out in the second half, and we are seeing that transpire in the nation’s capital.
At this point, we are just hoping to get by Week 13 against the Titans and praying for some improvement after the bye week.
The playoff schedule features the Saints, Eagles, and Falcons after Week 14. It’s a top-10 schedule for RBs for the rest of the season.
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Denver Broncos
Add Bo Nix | Stock Up Courtland Sutton | Sell Javonte Williams| Add Devaughn Vele & Marvin Mims & Troy Franklin | Cut Audric Estime & Jaleel McLaughlin
Bo Nix completed 25 of 42 passes for 273 yards and two touchdowns, achieving a passer rating of 94.6. He averaged 6.5 yards per attempt and avoided turnovers.
Jaleel McLaughlin led the rushing attack with seven carries for 44 yards, averaging 6.3 yards per carry, including an 18-yard run. He also left the game briefly with an injury but returned.
Audric Estime chipped in with three carries for 15 yards (5 yards per carry). One red-zone carry. Snaps down to 7%. Said I would go one more week with Estime to see if things would bounce back. Nope.
Cut him.
The rest of the rushing corps struggled, with Javonte Williams recording -2 yards on eight attempts and Marvin Mims Jr. losing 2 yards on two carries. Williams led with four first-half carries to go with three scoreless red-zone carries. This Williams saga is tireless.
Classic Broncos backfield usage. Unpredictable. Once we feel good about one guy, Sean Payton mixes it up. Good grief.
Per the FantasyPros Strength of Schedule tool, the Broncos have a bottom-six schedule for fantasy RBs for the rest of the season. Stock down Broncos backfield, stock up Denver passing game.
Courtland Sutton was the standout, catching 8 of 10 targets for 97 yards and two red-zone touchdowns, averaging 12.1 yards per reception. 26% Target share and over 100 air yards.
Sutton has been on an absolute heater since his zero-target game against the Saints. Averaging nearly 93 yards per game with a 46% air yards share and 29% Target share.
Devaughn Vele secured 6 of 9 targets for 80 yards, showcasing his ability to stretch the field with a 24-yard catch: 24% Target share, 305 target rate, and nearly 100 air yards. The Rookie is trending in the right direction, with plus matchups coming. Add him.
Marvin Mims Jr. contributed 44 receiving yards on three catches, including a 37-yard grab that showcased his big-play potential. Mims was targeted on 50% of his routes run (season-high five targets).
The routes still aren’t there for Mims but he has six-plus touches in three straight games with McLaughlin/Williams being phased out of the backfield as receivers.
Troy Franklin added 31 yards on two catches, including a 26-yard reception and 86 air yards as he saw more downfield shots. Franklin is going to have a big game at some point with all the downfield targets he sees every week. As a part-time player, he ranks 13th in deep targets this season. Against the Browns, who are BEGGING to give up big plays in Week 13?
Contributions also came from Michael Burton (1 catch, 8 yards) and Javonte Williams (2 catches, 6 yards on four targets).
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Broncos have a top-4-ranked schedule for quarterbacks for the rest of the season (7th for WRs).
The schedule goes vs. CLE, BYE, vs. IND, @ LAC, @ CIN, and vs. KC.
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Las Vegas Raiders
Buy Brock Bowers | Add Ameer Abdullah | Hold Jakobi Meyers | Add Aidan O’Connell
Gardner Minshew started the game, completing 25 of 42 passes for 230 yards with one touchdown and one interception. He posted a passer rating of 72.5 before leaving the game due to injury. He broke his collarbone and will miss the rest of the season.
Desmond Ridder came in as relief, completing 5 of 10 passes for 64 yards with a passer rating of 70.4. Daniel Jones…you are a RAIDER (at least that’s what I think will happen). However, it will more likely be Aidan O’Connell, who is eligible to return from IR in Week 13.
Punter AJ Cole attempted one pass, connecting for a 34-yard completion with a perfect passer rating of 118.8.
Sincere McCormick led the backfield with five carries for 33 yards, averaging 6.6 yards per carry, with a long run of 19 yards.
Ameer Abdullah contributed 28 rushing yards on eight carries, averaging 3.5 yards per carry. Abdullah led with six first-half carries and four receptions.
Abdullah played a key role in the passing game, catching all 5 of his targets for 37 yards and the team’s only receiving touchdown. He played nearly all the snaps (90%) and earned all the red-zone opportunities (three) with the Raiders down multiple starting RBs.
Continue to target RBs as receivers against the Denver Broncos’ defense.
McCormick played 10%, and rookie Dylan Laube played zero snaps on offense.
Gardner Minshew and Desmond Ridder combined for three rush attempts but only managed a total of 8 yards.
Jakobi Meyers was the standout receiver, catching 10 of 15 targets for 121 yards, averaging 12.1 yards per reception, including a long of 25 yards. 33% Target share and 52% air yards share (130 air yards). He also had four red-zone targets but didn’t score.
Tre Tucker delivered 82 receiving yards on 7 receptions, showing his explosiveness with a long of 28 yards. He had a touchdown before the game ended but it was overturned on review. Still, he earned an 18% Target share and 62 air yards.
Brock Bowers saw 10 targets but managed only four receptions for 38 yards, averaging 9.5 yards per catch. He saw two red-zone targets but failed to find the end zone. Unlike the Dolphins the week before, Denver did everything in their power to slow down Bowers. It’s an outlier performance in a very tough matchup.
Divine Deablo added a surprising contribution with a 34-yard reception on the fake punt.
Michael Mayer (lone red-zone target) and DJ Turner also chipped in with minimal yardage on limited targets.
The Raiders have a good playoff schedule for RBs after Week 13.
Las Vegas schedule is @ KC, @ TB, vs ATL, vs JAC and @ NO.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Raiders have a top-5 schedule for WRs.
You could do worse than stashing a Vegas RB like Zamir White or Alexander Mattison – although there’ s no need to do it this week.
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Arizona Cardinals
Hold Kyler Murray & James Conner & Trey McBride | Buy Marvin Harrison Jr. | Add Trey Benson
Kyler Murray completed 24 of 37 attempts for 285 yards but failed to throw a touchdown and had one interception. His passer rating stood at 77, with an average of 7.7 yards per attempt.
Trey Benson led the team with 18 rushing yards on four carries, averaging 4.5 yards per carry.
Emari Demercado broke off a single 14-yard run.
Murray added nine rushing yards on two attempts, while James Conner was held to just eight yards on seven carries. Conner had just four carries in the first half.
Conner was at least a reliable option out of the backfield, catching all five of his targets for 41 yards, including a long of 11. He saved his fantasy day (salvaged, at least) in a negative game script.
Tight end Trey McBride was the centerpiece of the offense, catching 12 of 15 targets for 133 yards, averaging 11.1 yards per reception, and leading the team with 77 yards after the catch. He had another red-zone target, but he didn’t score (again). But 44% Target share and 32% air yards share.
He can’t keep this receiving TD drought much longer.
Rookie Michael Wilson made the most of his two receptions, totaling 54 yards, including a long of 30 yards. Wilson caught a TD but it was called back on an offensive holding call. 86 air yards.
Marvin Harrison Jr. caught 3 of 6 targets for 47 yards, showcasing his big-play potential with a 22-yard reception. Also had a red-zone target but didn’t score.
Greg Dortch and Elijah Higgins contributed minimally, each with one catch for five yards.
Trey McBride continues to establish himself as Murray’s go-to target, commanding 15 targets and pacing the team in receptions and yards.
This Week 12 performance from Arizona was a gut punch. Murray throws for nearly 300 yards but the offense completely stalls out. Minnesota is up next, which is no easy feat.
But the schedule eases up: vs. SEA, vs. NE, @ CAR, @ LAR, and vs. SF.
Minnesota’s defense is great. But sometimes they can still give up big yardage totals. Murray’s inconsistent play is beyond frustrating, but the highs are worth it.
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Seattle Seahawks
Sell Kenneth Walker | Stock Up Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Geno Smith went 22-of-31 for 254 yards, throwing one touchdown and one interception. He averaged 8.2 yards per attempt with a passer rating of 92.7.
According to Next Gen Stats, Smith utilized the short passing game heavily in the Seahawks Week 12 win over the Cardinals, completing 20-of-24 passes under 10 air yards for 207 yards and his only touchdown of the day.
On passes of 10 air yards or more, he finished 2-for-4 for 47 yards and an interception. Seahawks receivers generated 7.6 yards after catch per reception in Week 12, their highest average of the season.
Geno Smith chipped in with three carries for 2 yards.
Kenneth Walker III struggled on the ground with 16 carries for 41 yards, averaging 2.6 yards per attempt, though he had a long run of 14 yards.
Zach Charbonnet added 22 yards on six carries, averaging 3.7 yards per attempt, with a long run of 12 yards. Walker played 64% of the snaps to Charbonnet’s 38%. Charbs also seized both red-zone carries but didn’t score. He got stuffed twice from the 4-yard line. I think he was in the game over Walker at this point because it was within 2 minutes remaining in the first half.
But Charbonnet’s involvement in any capacity isn’t great. Neither is Walker’s schedule for the rest of the season. The most difficult schedule ROS for RBs is based on the FantasyPros SOS tool. Walker has only averaged 3.8 yards per carry this season, with just 10 rushes of 10+ yards. (bottom-10 this season). The big explosive rushes haven’t been there for Walker.
Smith-Njigba led the passing attack with six receptions on seven targets (25% Target share) for 77 yards and a red-zone touchdown, averaging 12.8 yards per reception. He showcased his big-play ability with a 46-yard catch and 64 yards after the catch. However, it needs to be recognized that he was regulated back to his low average depth of target role, with 13 air yards (1.9 ADOT).
So, I was right about selling the idea of JSN a few weeks ago based on concerns about his lack of downfield targets. However, I am eating the L because it hasn’t mattered with his production through the roof the last few games.
DK Metcalf hauled in 4 of 5 targets for 59 yards, averaging 14.8 yards per catch, including a 29-yard reception and 94 air yards with a whopping 62% air yards share.
Kenneth Walker III contributed significantly as a receiver, catching 4 of 6 targets (22% Target share) for 52 yards, highlighted by a 21-yard play.
Tyler Lockett had two receptions for 20 yards on three targets, with a long of 17 yards.
Tight ends Pharoah Brown and AJ Barner combined for five catches and 38 yards, each contributing to short-yardage gains. Smith-Njigba continues to establish himself as a key weapon, with his touchdown and explosive play standing out.
Not sure this matters too much, but Cody White ran more routes/played more snaps than Jake Bobo.
Even after a solid performance by the Seahawks, I still have reservations for them for the rest of the season.
The playoff schedule isn’t ideal for Seattle. It’s something to keep in mind when potentially trusting the Seahawks as the season concludes.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Seahawks are tied for the bottom-ranked schedule for quarterbacks: @ NYJ, @ ARI, vs GB, vs MIN and @ CHI.
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San Francisco 49ers
Hold Jordan Mason | Drop Ricky Pearsall | Hold Jauan Jennings | Stock Down Deebo Samuel
Brandon Allen completed 17 of 29 passes for 199 yards, throwing one touchdown and one interception. His passer rating was 76.7, with an average of 6.9 yards per attempt.
Christian McCaffrey struggled on the ground, rushing 11 times for 31 yards (2.8 yards per carry) with a long of 9 yards. CMC had five touches in the first half and totaled an 82% snap share. He didn’t score despite two red-zone carries as the 49ers’ struggles in the red zone continue.
Jordan Mason managed 8 yards on three carries (2.7 yards per carry), with a notable long run of 16 yards.
Brandon Allen chipped in 2 carries for 5 yards.
George Kittle led the air attack with six receptions on six targets for 82 yards and a touchdown (24% Target share and 51 air yards). He averaged 13.7 yards per catch, highlighted by a 31-yard play and 36 yards after the catch. He caught both his red-zone targets and scored on one of them.
Jauan Jennings caught 5 of his seven targets (one red zone target) for 40 yards, averaging 8 yards per catch with a long of 20 yards (28% Target share led team, 45 air yards).
Deebo Samuel Sr. made the most of his lone catch on four targets, gaining 21 yards with a significant 26 yards after the catch. He only played 67% of the snaps, the same as Ricky Pearsall (zero targets), but was second on the team in routes run. The usage wasn’t bad for Samuel, but he’s just not being featured or making the most of his opportunities.
I thought it was interesting on the broadcast that during a critical conversion attempt, Tom Brady listed off Jennings, McCaffrey, and Kittle as the three players most likely to see the ball pre-snap. Samuel wasn’t even mentioned. WOOF.
The 49ers struggled without Brock Purdy, and it’s not guaranteed that he will be ready for Buffalo in Week 13.
It’s a tough matchup overall for WRs, putting into question whether Samuel can be trusted.
In the last three games with CMC, Samuel was second on the team with a 20% Target share, but he had just 10 receptions for 83 yards. In Week 12, he had two more drops, and one of his targets led to an interception. Samuel only has two TDs scored this season despite nine total red-zone targets/attempts.
I think if Purdy misses another week, Samuel can be easily benched. If Purdy is back, fantasy managers still need to get Samuel back in lineups even after a disastrous performance.
Samuel’s worst game this season was against Arizona, and he followed it up with a 100-yard game versus Seattle. The Bills pass defense happily gives up a ton of underneath and dump-off targets, which has been Samuel’s role in the offense. Even after his “older” age, Samuel still showed glimpses of his strong YAC self, with all his yards coming after the catch in Week 12 on well designed screen pass. He also had an impressive return on special teams.
McCaffrey contributed in the passing game with three catches for 37 yards on four targets, showing his versatility with a 23-yard catch and 32 yards after contact.
Fullback Kyle Juszczyk added a 14-yard reception, while Mason had one catch for 5 yards.
Chris Conley and Eric Saubert were targeted but did not record a catch.
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Green Bay Packers
Hold Tucker Kraft | Buy Jayden Reed & Christian Watson | Add Dontayvion Wicks
Jordan Love completed 13 of 23 passes for 163 yards and two touchdowns, posting a passer rating of 107.7. He averaged 7.1 yards per attempt.
Josh Jacobs dominated on the ground, carrying the ball 26 times for 106 yards and three touchdowns (4.1 yards per carry), with a long run of 18 yards. Hat trick.
Emmanuel Wilson added 41 yards on nine attempts (4.6 yards per carry), including a long run of 19 yards. He was second in carries and the second Packers RB to attempt a rush. He also had two red zone carries but did not score.
Chris Brooks contributed 11 yards on four carries (2.8 yards per carry), while Jordan Love and Bo Melton chipped in minimal rushing yardage. Brooks out-snapped Wilson for the fourth straight game, but this time, it was related to the blow-out game script. He also had three red-zone carries.
Romeo Doubs led the Packers in receiving yards with 54 yards on three catches (6 targets and 27% Target share), averaging 18 yards per reception, including a 29-yard grab. However, he left the game with an injury. It was confirmed to be a concussion.
Jayden Reed hauled in all 3 of his targets for 26 yards (8.7 yards per reception), with a long of 13 yards.
Tucker Kraft caught both of his targets for 26 yards and a touchdown, including a 15-yard reception. Kraft’s fantasy value is TD-dependent. He is Love’s favorite red-zone target, and he saw two more red-zone targets in this game.
Dontayvion Wicks made the most of his single catch, picking up 25 yards. Wicks’ targets both came after Doubs left the game. Given the short week, we might be looking at Wicks as the next man up for Doubs.
Note that Doubs has already missed one game this season (suspended by the team). You can read the full breakdown from Week 6’s Fantasy Forecast below. Note that Watson also missed Week 5.
“Tight end Tucker Kraft was the Packers’ leading receiver, catching four of his five targets for 88 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 22 yards per reception, with a long of 66 yards and 70 yards after the catch (YAC). Reed caught four of six targets for 78 yards, averaging 19.5 yards per catch, with a long of 53 yards and 24 YAC. The Packers’ second-year WR led the team in routes run.
Dontayvion Wicks had a team-high seven targets (28% Target share, 43% air yards share, 91 air yards), catching two passes for 20 yards, averaging 5 yards per reception, with a long of 7 yards. Malik Heath caught two of his three targets for 14 yards, and Bo Melton caught one pass for 12 yards on two targets. Wilson also had one target but finished with -9 yards receiving. Heath was a starter in 3-WR sets alongside Wicks/Reed. Melton was the WR4.
Wicks led the Target share with seven targets (28%), Reed with six targets (23.1%), Kraft with five targets (19.2%), and Jacobs with one target (3.8%).”
It’s possible that instead of Wicks taking on a full-time role, he will continue to split repetitions with Watson. Then we see Heath take on Doubs’ role.
But after re-watching GB-SF, it appeared that GB was rolling out Watson/Wicks in 2 WR sets. This team loves to rotate WRs anyway, but I’d expect those two to run the most routes. Miami tends to allow more points to perimeter WRs than slot ones.
It should be fun to see how the Packers’ WR pecking order shakes out on Thanksgiving.
Christian Watson had a long TD in his breadbasket, but he flat-out dropped it. He had three deep targets, but goose-egged with 91 total air yards, resulting in zero points. Woof.
In the last four games, Watson leads the Packers in targets (20), air yards (406), and receiving yards (226) – even after a doughnut in Week 12.
Malik Heath caught both of his targets for 15 yards and a red-zone touchdown late, averaging 7.5 yards per reception.
Melton also had a 42-yard deep target that fell incomplete.
Chris Brooks added 15 receiving yards on one catch, while John FitzPatrick chipped in with a 2-yard reception.
Jacobs was the offense’s centerpiece, accounting for all three of Green Bay’s rushing touchdowns and consistently moving the chains. Jacobs had 19 carries for 94 yards in the first half.
Remaining schedule: vs. MIA (Thanksgiving Night), @ DET, @ SEA vs. NO, and @ MIN.
It’s not ideal for Love, though. Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Packers are tied for a bottom-5-ranked schedule for quarterbacks (with the Bears) and dead last for their WRs.
According to Next Gen Stats, the 2024 Packers are the first team to have three straight wins decided by a field goal attempt (by either team), with time expiring in a single season since the 2015 Ravens.
For Week 13 specifically, I do like the over on Love’s completions. He’s 11-2 toward the over in his last 13 home games.
He is also 5-0 toward the under in total pass attempts in the last five games he has been favored in.
Love has been under 32.5 pass attempts in five of his last seven games. Doubs is likely out. Take the less than on his pass attempts. It’s the No. 4 +EV bet in the BettingPros Prizepicks Cheat Sheet for Week 13.
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Philadelphia Eagles
Stock Up Dallas Goedert
Jalen Hurts completed 15 of 22 passes for 179 yards, throwing one touchdown and no interceptions. He maintained an efficient 68.2% completion rate with a passer rating of 108.0, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt.
Saquon Barkley was unstoppable on the ground, racking up 255 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries, averaging an impressive 9.8 yards per attempt. He had a long run of 72 yards and handled eight red zone touches.
Fantasy football’s RB1. There’s no debate.
Jalen Hurts chipped in 39 rushing yards on 12 attempts, often keeping the chains moving with his legs.
Kenneth Gainwell carried five times for 22 yards and a touchdown, scoring on his lone red zone carry. He cashed the anytime TD bet. Follow me on BettingPros.
A.J. Brown dominated the passing attack, catching 6 of 7 targets for 109 yards and a touchdown. He commanded a 37% Target share and accounted for a massive 62% of the team’s air yards. His longest reception went for 28 yards.
Saquon Barkley was equally productive as a receiver, hauling in all 4 of his targets for 47 yards, including an 11.8-yard average per catch and a long of 31.
Dallas Goedert played a key role with a 26% Target share, catching 4 of 5 targets for 19 yards. He also saw two red zone targets but couldn’t find the end zone.
Goedert might see some suppressed prices across the board in Week 13, given his lack of yardage. But against the Baltimore Ravens defense, which has been horrible versus tight ends, I’d fully expect him to bounce back. No. 3 for the rest of the season schedule for TEs.
Jahan Dotson and Johnny Wilson each played small roles in the passing game. Dotson caught his lone target for 4 yards, while Wilson, stepping in for the injured DeVonta Smith, played 70% of the snaps and tied Dotson for third on the team in routes run. Wilson also saw a red zone target but failed to record a catch. He had another target wiped by penalty.
Grant Calcaterra and Johnny Wilson failed to make an impact, each going without a reception on their respective targets.
Barkley continued his stellar play, shouldering the load with eight red zone touches and dominating both the rushing and receiving games.
Brown maintained his role as the clear focal point of the Eagles’ aerial attack, leading in both target and air yard shares.
Wilson stepped up in the absence of DeVonta Smith, running a significant number of routes and earning a red zone opportunity. However, his production was limited.
The approach remains the same. Buy Eagles stock. The Eagles will face the Ravens in Week 13—shootout on deck. The Eagles’ schedule is excellent for the rest of the season.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, it’s the No-5th-ranked schedule for quarterbacks and No.1-ranked for RBs.
From Weeks 14-17, Philly plays the Panthers, Steelers, Commanders, and Cowboys.
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Los Angeles Rams
Sell Matthew Stafford & Cooper Kupp | Hold Kyren Williams | Add Blake Corum
Matthew Stafford completed 24 of 36 passes for 243 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. He posted a 66.7% completion rate with a passer rating of 104.3, averaging 6.8 yards per attempt.
Kyren Williams carried the ball 16 times for 72 yards (4.5 YPC) and a touchdown, including a long run of 27 yards. Despite fumbling twice, he maintained a heavy workload, playing 91% of the snaps and handling four red zone touches. He also broke his TD drought and finished with under 20 touches for the third straight week.
Still, the schedule is too good to fully fade him. Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Rams have a top-10 most favorable schedule for RBs.
Stafford contributed 15 rushing yards on a single scramble, while Blake Corum chipped in with a 5-yard carry. Keep Corum stashed.
Puka Nacua dominated the passing game, hauling in 9 of 13 targets for 117 yards. He commanded a massive 38% Target share and just under 100 air yards. When factoring in penalties and 2-point conversion attempts, he had a total of 17 targets. His longest reception was 29 yards, showcasing his role as a deep and reliable threat.
Cooper Kupp had a strong outing, catching 8 of 11 targets for 60 yards and a touchdown, earning a 32% Target share. His longest reception spanned 27 yards. Had it not been for the 27-yard TD catch by Kupp late in the fourth quarter, he would have been a major bust in Week 12 with just seven catches for 33 yards.
A reminder that the Eagles’ secondary is legit, especially against slot receivers. According to Next Gen Stats, Cooper DeJean aligned across from Kupp on 9 of his 37 routes (24.3%), the most of any Eagle, allowing three receptions for 11 yards across five targets.
Tutu Atwell made the most of his opportunities, catching all 3 of his targets for 30 yards, averaging 10 yards per catch.
Demarcus Robinson caught 2 of 3 targets for 15 yards, including a touchdown on his lone red zone target.
Tyler Johnson, Colby Parkinson, and Davis Allen contributed minimally, with Johnson recording an 11-yard catch, Parkinson adding 10 yards, and Allen being held without a reception despite leading the tight ends with a 48% snap share over Parkinson’s 30%.
Williams’ heavy usage remained unaffected by his two fumbles as he dominated the backfield snaps and touches.
Robinson capitalized on his red zone opportunity with a touchdown catch. Among tight ends, Davis Allen out-snapped Colby Parkinson, but neither played a significant role in the passing game.
Until Tyler Higbee returns, Allen is the TE1 for L.A. But it’s not useful for fantasy purposes.
Next week they are @ NO, vs BUF, @ SF, @ NYJ and vs ARI.
The Rams have the 31st-ranked fantasy football schedule left for QBs, likely impacting their WRs.
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Los Angeles Chargers
Stock Up Justin Herbert | Stock Down J.K. Dobbins | Buy Ladd McConkey | Sell Quentin Johnston | Hold Will Dissly | Add Gus Edwards & Josh Palmer & Hassan Haskins
Justin Herbert completed 21 of 36 passes for 218 yards without a touchdown or interception. His passer rating was 75.9, and he averaged 6.1 yards per attempt in an underwhelming outing.
J.K. Dobbins rushed 6 times for 40 yards (6.7 YPC), including a long run of 17 yards, but exited the game at the end of the first half due to injury. He managed a 30% snap share before the injury.
Hassan Haskins led the backfield in snaps (45%) but had just one carry for 3 yards.
Gus Edwards scored a touchdown on his lone red-zone carry, finishing with nine rushes for 11 yards (1.2 YPC). In the first half, the carries were split six apiece between Edwards and Dobbins.
Herbert added 29 rushing yards and a touchdown on four scrambles.
Dobbins’ injury clouds his availability moving forward, especially as he competes with Edwards and Haskins for red-zone opportunities. The Chargers’ third-worst remaining schedule for running backs adds another challenge for fantasy managers relying on their backfield.
Edwards is TD or bust, and Harbaugh seems to trust Haskins. The same can’t be said for rookie Kimani Vidal, who has been inactive since Week 9. Even though the ROS schedule is poor, Atlanta is a good spot for the Bolts’ run game.
Ladd McConkey was perfect, catching all 6 of his targets for 83 yards, averaging 13.8 yards per reception. He operated as the WR1 with solid efficiency.
Josh Palmer served as the WR2, finishing second in routes run behind McConkey. He led the team with a 22% Target share and commanded a massive 202 air yards (55% air yard share). However, his production lagged behind, as he caught just 3 of 8 targets for 38 yards.
Palmer showed deep involvement with his league-leading air yards but struggled to turn opportunities into meaningful production. He also drew three defensive pass interference calls.
His role as the WR2 behind McConkey remains secure, and the Chargers benefit from having the third-easiest remaining schedule for WRs.
Tight end Will Dissly saw a rebound in usage, playing 75% of snaps and catching all 4 of his targets for 47 yards.
Jalen Reagor caught 2 of 4 targets for 20 yards, while J.K. Dobbins contributed 19 receiving yards on three receptions on five targets.
Quentin Johnston went catch-less on five targets, dropping multiple balls and continuing his streak of inefficiency, with just two catches on his last 13 targets the last two weeks. Both Palmer and Johnston had red zone targets, but neither were able to score.
Tucker Fisk and Derius Davis provided minor contributions, with 7 and 4 receiving yards, respectively.
The remaining schedule is as follows: @ ATL, @ KC, vs. TB, vs. DEN and @ NE.
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Baltimore Ravens
Hold Mark Andrews | Drop Diontae Johnson
Lamar Jackson efficiently led the offense, completing 16 of 22 passes for 177 yards and two touchdowns. His performance was highlighted by a stellar 126.5 passer rating and an 8.0 yards-per-attempt average.
Derrick Henry was the workhorse, dominating the backfield with 24 carries for 140 yards (5.8 YPC), including a long run of 27 yards. Justice Hill contributed with explosive efficiency, rushing 4 times for 55 yards (13.8 YPC), highlighted by a 51-yard touchdown.
Jackson added 15 yards and a touchdown on eight rushes, though he was limited to 1.9 yards per carry.
Zay Flowers led the passing attack, commanding a 38% Target share and 37% air yards share (80 air yards). He caught 5 of 8 targets for 62 yards, showcasing his playmaking ability but failing to convert two red-zone opportunities into points. Buy.
Mark Andrews was highly efficient, catching all 5 of his targets for 44 yards and a touchdown. Despite playing the third-fewest snaps among Ravens tight ends (42%), Andrews ran the most routes, boasting a 33% target rate per route run and capitalizing on a red-zone opportunity.
Rashod Bateman was a deep threat, catching 2 of 3 targets for 43 yards, including a highlight-reel 40-yard touchdown.
Tylan Wallace caught his lone target for 15 yards, while Justice Hill, Charlie Kolar, and others made minor contributions in the passing game.
Flowers dominated the opportunity metrics, leading the team in Target share and air yards, but missed two red-zone chances, including a conversion attempt.
Andrews demonstrated elite efficiency as Jackson’s primary red-zone target despite limited snap counts compared to other Ravens tight ends.
Diontae Johnson ran four routes. DJ has played four games as a Raven and has barely played. At this point, he seems like just depth, which is a week away from being viable in fantasy football. We are hoping he gets the Nelson Agholor role at this point, and nobody is ever vying to start him in any capacity.
Baltimore will face the Eagles before a bye week. Then it’s the Giants, Steelers (again), and Texans in the fantasy football playoffs.
If anything, Johnson might be a sharp stash after Baltimore’s bye week.
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BYE WEEK TEAMS
Cincinnati Bengals
Drop Mike Gesicki | Buy Ja’Marr Chase | Hold Tee Higgins & Chase Brown | Add Khalil Herbert
In Week 11, Joe Burrow completed 28 of 50 passes for 356 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. He posted a 56% completion rate, a passer rating of 98.4, and averaged 7.1 yards per attempt.
Chase Brown led the ground game with 22 carries for 86 yards, averaging 3.9 yards per carry, with a long of 27 yards: five red-zone rushing attempts and one reception on two red-zone targets but no touchdowns.
Burrow: Contributed 28 yards on two carries, averaging 14 yards per attempt, with a long of 14 yards.
Drew Sample: Lost 4 yards on his lone carry.
Tee Higgins: Dominated with nine catches on 13 targets for 148 yards and a touchdown, averaging 16.4 yards per reception, with a long of 42 yards and 42 yards after the catch. Higgins ran a route on 85% of dropbacks. Secured two of three red-zone targets but did not score.
Ja’Marr Chase: Caught 7 of 13 targets for 75 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 10.7 yards per reception, with a long of 32 yards and 31 yards after the catch. Five red-zone targets resulted in four receptions and two touchdowns.
Chase and Higgins each earned a 28% Target share with nearly 150 air yards a piece.
Chase Brown: Added value in the passing game with five catches on seven targets for 57 yards, averaging 11.4 yards per reception, with a long of 34 yards and 32 yards after the catch.
Brown contributed as a dual-threat back, amassing over 140 total yards from scrimmage. 83% snap share for the former Illinois and current Bengals workhorse. If this usage continues out of the bye week, Brown needs to be viewed as a fringe top-five fantasy RB rest of the season. Given Cincy’s must-win status from here on out, I think the role will hold.
Andrei Iosivas: Perfect on three targets, gaining 46 yards, averaging 15.3 yards per catch, with a long of 27 yards. Iosivas ran a route on 55% of dropbacks.
Tanner Hudson: Caught both targets for 13 yards, averaging 6.5 yards per reception.
Drew Sample: Converted 1 of 2 targets for 9 yards.
Jermaine Burton: Managed one catch on four targets for 8 yards. He was targeted once in the red zone but did not catch the pass. His routes dipped to 25%.
Mike Gesicki: Was targeted twice but did not record a reception despite him running a route on 76% of dropbacks. He’s not a viable option with Higgins healthy.
The Bengals are coming off a much-needed bye week. Then it’s the Steelers and Cowboys.
We should see more offensive production. However, don’t be afraid to flip Bengals for equivalent elite pieces.
The playoff schedule between the Titans, Browns, and Broncos in Week 17 isn’t great. And if the 4-7 Bengals don’t start accumulating wins soon, they are going to fall out of the AFC playoff picture (if they haven’t already).
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Buffalo Bills
Buy James Cook | Add Keon Coleman | Add Ray Davis | Buy Amari Cooper
In Week 11, Josh Allen completed 27 of 40 passes for 262 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Allen posted a completion rate of 67.5%, a passer rating of 83.5, and averaged 6.6 yards per attempt.
Allen led the team with 12 carries for 55 yards and a rushing touchdown, averaging 4.6 yards per carry, with a long of 26 yards.
James Cook: Rushed 9 times for 20 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 2.2 yards per carry.
Cook had seven carries for 17 yards in the first half. Brutal matchup.
Ty Johnson: Added 18 rushing yards on five attempts, averaging 3.6 yards per carry.
Ray Davis: Carried the ball 5 times for 11 yards, averaging 2.2 yards per carry. Davis had two red-zone rushing attempts without scoring.
Cook had two red-zone rushing attempts, which resulted in two touchdowns. He also caught one red-zone target but did not score.
Johnson led Buffalo with a 45% snap rate, followed by Cook (37%, season-low) and Davis (21%).
Get access to the Bills backfield where you can. The Lions/Jets/Patriots in the fantasy playoffs.
Khalil Shakir: Recorded eight receptions on 12 targets (32% Target share) for 70 yards, averaging 8.8 yards per catch, with a long of 22 yards and 56 yards after the catch.
He remains Allen’s favorite and most efficient target.
Curtis Samuel: Caught 5 of 6 targets (16% Target share) for 58 yards and a touchdown, averaging 11.6 yards per reception, with a long of 21 yards and 30 yards after the catch. Samuel ran a route on 62% of dropbacks. Two red-zone targets turned into two receptions and one touchdown.
Samuel has been getting more involved, averaging seven targets in the last two games. This might change with guys returning after the bye week.
Amari Cooper: Secured 2 of 3 targets for 55 yards, averaging 27.5 yards per catch, with a long of 30 yards. Cooper ran a route on 49% of dropbacks and led the team in air yards on just three targets (73 air yards).
Glad to see him healthy and productive in the lineup, even on limited opportunities.
Dawson Knox: Hauled in 4 receptions on six targets for 40 yards, averaging 10 yards per reception, with a long of 24 yards. Knox ran a route on 69% of dropbacks with a 16% Target share.
Mack Hollins: Contributed 27 yards on two catches (2 targets), averaging 13.5 yards per reception, with a long of 15 yards. Hollins ran a route on 53% of dropbacks as Cooper ate into his snaps.
James Cook: Added five receptions on six targets for 7 yards, averaging 1.4 yards per reception, with a long of 3 yards and 31 yards after the catch.
Zach Davidson: Made 1 catch on one target for 5 yards.
Ty Johnson & Quintin Morris: Both targeted once but did not record any receptions.
Buffalo went noticeably more pass-heavy in Week 7 (+10% pass rate over expectation) compared to the -3% PROE Weeks 1-6. In Week 8, it was at +1% despite them controlling the game from the start. In Week 9, it was back up to +6%.
In Week 10, with all the WR injuries, the PROE was still +2%. In Week 11, it was a +4% pass rate over expectation.
Buy pieces of this Bills passing game that is starting to open things up through the air.
The remaining schedule: vs SF, @ LAR, @ DET, vs NE and vs NYJ.
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Atlanta Falcons
Add Kirk Cousins | Buy Kyle Pitts | Hold Darnell Mooney | Buy Bijan Robinson & Tyler Allgeier | Add Falcons DST
Back in Week 11, Kirk Cousins completed 18 of 27 passes for 173 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception. He posted a 66.7% completion rate, a passer rating of 68.9, and averaged 6.4 yards per attempt.
Michael Penix Jr.: Added 24 passing yards on 2 of 4 completions, with no touchdowns or interceptions, averaging 6 yards per attempt and a passer rating of 68.8.
Bijan Robinson: Led the rushing attack with 12 carries for 35 yards, averaging 2.9 yards per carry, with a long of 9 yards. One red-zone rushing attempt but did not score.
Tyler Allgeier had zero first-half carries and overall. Robinson led the backfield with a 71% snap share to Allgeier’s 7%. Bijan ranks fourth in the NFL in touches. After this bad game, this is likely you’re last chance to buy low.
Jase McClellan: Contributed 15 yards on eight carries, averaging 1.9 yards per carry. But this was all in mop-up duty.
Cousins: Added one carry for no yards.
Drake London: Hauled in 3 of 7 targets for 61 yards, averaging 20.3 yards per reception, with a long of 26 yards and 13 yards after the catch. 24% Target share and 89 air yards.
Ray-Ray McCloud: Was highly efficient, catching all six targets for 46 yards, averaging 7.7 yards per catch, with a long of 20 yards and 32 yards after the catch.
Bijan Robinson: Added 28 receiving yards on four receptions (4 targets), averaging 7 yards per catch, with a long of 15 yards and 27 yards after the catch.
Darnell Mooney: Caught 2 of 4 targets for 27 yards, averaging 13.5 yards per reception, with a long of 19 yards. Mooney ran a route on 57% of dropbacks.
Mooney suffered a hamstring injury during Sunday’s game at Denver, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons’ official site reports.
According to Next Gen Stats, Patrick Surtain II did not allow a single reception across two targets as the nearest defender in coverage against the Falcons.
Surtain primarily lined up against Drake London (13 routes, 44.8%) and Darnell Mooney (8 routes, 27.6%). This was the 2nd game this season Surtain did not allow a reception (the other was Week 6 against the Chargers), and his 147 yards allowed as the nearest defender in coverage are the fewest by any cornerback with at least 200 coverage snaps in 2024.
KhaDarel Hodge: Made two catches on two targets for 22 yards, averaging 11 yards per catch, with a long of 18 yards and 20 yards after the catch.
Kyle Pitts: Was targeted 3 times, catching 1 for 9 yards. Mooney’s hamstring injury isn’t considered serious, but Pitts would be a main benefactor if the injury is worse than anticipated.
Ross Dwelley: Contributed 5 yards on one catch (1 target).
Casey Washington: Was targeted once but recorded no receptions.
Tyler Allgeier: Lost 1 yard on his lone reception.
The remaining Falcons schedule BYE, vs. LAC, @ MIN, @ LV vs. NYG, and @ WAS.
It’s mostly the status quo with the Falcons.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Falcons have the top-6-ranked schedule for QBs. They have a great playoff schedule, as well. If Cousins was dropped over his bye week, add him.
Atlanta also has a good schedule for fantasy DSTs for the rest of the season. The first two weeks of the fantasy postseason are a chef’s kiss as they face the Raiders and Giants.
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New York Jets
Hold Breece Hall | Buy Garrett Wilson | Add Tyrod Taylor
Back in Week 11, Aaron Rodgers completed 22 of 29 passes for 184 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. He recorded a 75.9% completion rate, a passer rating of 114.7, and averaged 6.3 yards per attempt.
We got news over the bye week that Rodgers could be placed on IR, which would be a major detriment to the Jets offense. Just be sure to stash Tyrod Taylor in Superflex formats.
Breece Hall carried the ball 16 times for 78 yards and scored one touchdown, averaging 4.9 yards per carry with a long run of 18 yards.
Hall had all the touches in the first half for Gang Green’s backfield, and he totaled an 84% snap share on the day.
Hall was active in the passing game, catching all 7 of his targets for 43 yards and a receiving touchdown. He averaged 6.1 yards per reception, with a long of 29 yards and 48 yards after the catch, with a 24% Target share.
After “burying” him last week for no TDs, Hall finally found the end zone twice-hopefully a sign of things to come.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Jets have the fourth-most favorable schedule for RBs. Praying for a strong finish from Hall.
Aaron Rodgers had one carry for 7 yards. Braelon Allen added two carries for 6 yards, averaging 3 yards per carry. Tyler Conklin had one rush attempt for no gain.
Davante Adams led the receivers, catching 6 of his seven targets for 72 yards (24% Target share). He averaged 12 yards per reception, with a long of 24 yards and 56 yards after the catch.
Garrett Wilson caught 4 of his eight targets for 18 yards, averaging 4.5 yards per reception with a long of 7 yards. Back-to-back dud games for Wilson despite a 28% Target share and 54% air yards share.
Given the Jets’ remaining schedule, you must buy BOTH Jets’ WRs after this bad game. At least kick the tires on both of them. Remember, the Jets get the Rams and Jaguars in the first two weeks of the fantasy football playoffs. They play all the snaps.
The Jets are coming off a much overdue Week 12 bye week. Post-bye week, Gang Green will play vs SEA, @ MIA, @ JAC, vs LAR and @ BUF.
Xavier Gipson made a single catch for 17 yards.
Kenny Yeboah secured his lone target for an 11-yard touchdown.
Malachi Corley caught one pass for 10 yards.
Tyler Conklin caught 1 of his two targets for 7 yards.
Jeremy Ruckert caught 1 of his two targets for 6 yards.
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New Orleans Saints
Hold/Sell Alvin Kamara | Add Taysom Hill & Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Derek Carr had an efficient outing in Week 11, completing 21 of 27 passes for 248 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. He posted a 77.8% completion rate, a passer rating of 129.6, and averaged 9.2 yards per attempt.
Taysom Hill attempted two passes, completing 1 for 18 yards, but threw one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 41.7. Hill was a dominant force in the rushing game, carrying the ball 7 times for 138 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 19.7 yards per carry with a long run of 75 yards.
According to Next Gen Stats, Hill accumulated 138 rushing yards and three touchdowns on seven carries, with every one of his touchdowns coming from Wildcat alignment.
Hill’s 126 rushing yards and 3 TDs from Wildcat alignment are both the most in a game in the NGS era (since 2016). Across 32 offensive snaps, Hill lined up in the slot 10 times, at quarterback 8 times, in the backfield 6 times, and aligned tight and out wide on four plays each.
Alvin Kamara contributed 16 carries for 67 yards, averaging 4.2 yards per carry with a long of 18 yards: four red-zone rushing attempts but no touchdowns.
Kamara was effective as a pass-catcher, catching all 4 of his targets for 22 yards, averaging 5.5 yards per reception with a long of 18 yards and 39 yards after the catch.
At this point with Kamara, it’s just a matter of how long he can keep this up. And Hill’s emergence around the red zone won’t make it easier for AK41 to score touchdowns (even though that wasn’t the specific case in Week 11). It is very clear that Taysom Hill has a projectable red-zone role.
He leads the NFL with 238 touches. He’s on pace for 370 touches. He’s never had 300 in any season of his career. I’d like to get out earlier if I can.
Derek Carr added eight rushing yards on one carry.
Jordan Mims had two carries for 3 yards.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling had a huge impact, catching 2 of 4 targets for 87 yards and a touchdown, averaging an impressive 43.5 yards per reception with a long of 71 yards and 71 yards after the catch. Marquez Valdes-Scantling ran a route on 84% of dropbacks and tied Kamara for the second-most targets while leading the way with almost 100 air yards (43% air yards share).
MVS isn’t going to score a long TD every week, but it’s clear that he is the Saints WR1 for the rest of the season, assuming Chris Olave does not return.
Like I said last week, he seems to slide seamlessly into the Rashid Shaheed role. And as bad as he is at commanding targets in his career, nobody on this team can command targets.
Taysom Hill was also active as a receiver, hauling in 8 of 10 targets for 50 yards, averaging 6.3 yards per catch with a long of 14 yards and 33 yards after the catch: 36% Target share and elite 55% target rate per route run.
Hill ran a route on 58% of dropbacks. Two red-zone targets, both caught, but no touchdowns. He also lost a fumble.
Regardless, he’s a top-five tight end rest of season. The team and new interim head coach LOVE HIM.
Foster Moreau caught 3 of 4 targets for 50 yards, averaging 16.7 yards per reception with a long of 22 yards. Moreau ran a route on 74% of dropbacks. He is the TE1 in usage for the Saints.
Juwan Johnson brought in all three of his targets for 30 yards and a red-zone touchdown, averaging 10 yards per reception with a long of 20 yards. He only ran a route on 48% of the dropbacks. The broadcasters talked about how much they like Johnson, but the sure have an odd way of showing it.
Kevin Austin Jr. caught 1 of 2 targets for 18 yards. Austin Jr. ran a route on 52% of dropbacks, and he led all Saints WRs in snaps played (68%).
Mason Tipton was inactive.
Dante Pettis hauled in his lone target for 9 yards.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Saints have the No.7th-ranked schedule for quarterbacks/No.10 for RBs for the rest of the season.
They are on a Week 12 bye week. Then it’s Rams, Giants, Commanders, Packers and Raiders to round out the season.
Admittedly, the playoff schedule is very nice.
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Jacksonville Jaguars
Hold Evan Engram & Brian Thomas Jr. | Add Tank Bigsby | Hold Travis Etienne Jr.
Mac Jones struggled in Week 11, completing 17 of 29 passes for 138 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. His completion percentage of 58.6% and passer rating of 56.4 reflected a challenging day for the Jaguars’ passing offense, averaging just 4.8 yards per attempt.
On the ground, Travis Etienne led the backfield with 12 carries for 27 yards, averaging 2.3 yards per carry with a long gain of 9 yards. He played 75% of the snaps with Tank Bigsby inactive.
Mac Jones contributed seven rushing yards on two attempts, while Brian Thomas Jr. and D’Ernest Johnson combined for 7 yards on three carries.
Given the state of the dysfunctional Jaguars, you just have to sit tight with this backfield. Etienne might be a sneaky buy, given the injury to Bigsby, if anything.
It also seems likely that Trevor Lawrence will return from his shoulder injury in Week 13.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Jaguars have the fourth-worst-ranked schedule for running backs.
However, it does ease up in Weeks 14-15 against the Jets/Raiders plus Colts in Week 17 (reason to hold onto Etienne and add Tank Bigsby).
Brian Thomas Jr. was the standout performer in the passing game, catching 5 of 7 targets for 82 yards, averaging 16.4 yards per reception with a long gain of 24 yards and an impressive 49 yards after the catch. He had another 33-yard catch reversed, on which he also got injured. 25% Target share and nearly 100 air yards.
Tight end Evan Engram also contributed with five receptions on seven targets for 28 yards, averaging 5.6 yards per reception (25% Target share).
Parker Washington made a single 10-yard reception on three targets, while Etienne added three catches for 6 yards.
Among other contributors, tight ends Brenton Strange and Luke Farrell each caught their lone targets for 6 and 3 yards, respectively. Gabe Davis and Devin Duvernay were quiet, with Davis recording one catch for 3 yards on three targets and Duvernay failing to haul in either of his two targets.
Gabe Davis sustained a knee injury and did not return to Sunday’s game against the Lions. He will miss the remainder of the season with a torn meniscus.
Brian Thomas Jr. also left the game due to an unspecified injury. Should get more clarity on it this week.
The Jags passing game – for better or worse – seems to go through Engram especially if the Thomas injury is serious.
After Week 12, Jacksonville finishes the season against HOU, @ TEN, vs. NYJ, @ LV, @ TEN, and @ IND.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Jaguars are tied for the No.28th-ranked schedule for quarterbacks. Fifth-worst for WRs as well.
At this point, we are just hoping Lawrence can support Thomas/Engram, and pray the backfield can take advantage of some plus-matchups after Week 13.
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