For the second consecutive week, I was repeatedly asked the same direct start-sit question, pitting two quarterbacks against one another. Funny enough, this week’s question involved one of the quarterbacks from last week’s question. A rookie running back was part of many start-or-sit questions versus other running backs and wideouts. Finally, many Discord users had questions about a burgeoning sophomore wideout.
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Kyler Murray or Dak Prescott in Week 9?
Kyler Murray is the QB11 in points per game (18.6) and was the QB11 last week. Conversely, Dak Prescott is the QB18 and cleared 20 fantasy points only once this year, a mark Murray has exceeded four times, including three times in the previous four weeks.
Nevertheless, I prefer Prescott this week, and they’re back to back in the expert consensus rankings (ECR), with Murray as the QB9 and Prescott as the QB10. Obviously, Murray’s legs give him a leg up — bad pun intended — on Prescott in an equal playing field. Yet, the playing field isn’t equal.
The Bears have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (12.0), and the Falcons have coughed up the ninth-most fantasy points per game (18.2). Dallas’s implied total (24.5 points) is also higher than Arizona’s (22.75). The margin between Murray and Prescott is razor-thin, but I’ll take Prescott and lean into the probable shootout environment in Atlanta this week.
What is Tyrone Tracy‘s Outlook This Week?
Tyrone Tracy has cleared the NFL’s concussion protocol. Since the NFL’s concussion protocol is binary, meaning he’s either healthy or not, it doesn’t make sense for the Giants to reduce the rookie’s workload.
Speaking of Tracy’s workload, he’s emerged as a workhorse. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), in Big Blue’s previous two games, Tracy handled 26 of the backfield’s 34 rush attempts (76.5%), played 50 passing snaps and ran 41 routes versus 31 passing snaps and 21 routes for Devin Singletary and eight and seven for Eric Gray.
Tracy parlayed his sweet gig into eye-catching production. Since Week 7, he’s had 26 rush attempts, 168 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, six targets, five receptions and 14 receiving yards. Tracy has a tasty matchup as a runner, too. According to Pro Football Reference, the Commanders have coughed up 117.0 rushing yards per game, 5.35 yards per carry and eight rushing touchdowns to running backs this season. Tracy’s a superb fantasy option this week, and I advised starting him over Nick Chubb, Bucky Irving, Kareem Hunt, J.K. Dobbins, Tank Bigsby, Jaylen Waddle, Jakobi Meyers, Darnell Mooney, Amari Cooper, Diontae Johnson, Rome Odunze and Cade Otton in various start-or-sit questions.
Is Cedric Tillman Trustworthy?
Cedric Tillman has exploded without Cooper. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, in the previous two weeks, Tillman had a 36.8% air-yard share, 13.2-yard average depth of target, 22.6% target share, 0.26 targets per route run, 27.3% first-read percentage, three end zone targets, 15 receptions (7.5 per game), 180 receiving yards (90.0 per game), 2.22 yards per route run and two touchdowns.
It’s a small but impressive sample. To add perspective, among 102 wideouts with at least 100 routes this year, Tillman’s air-yard percentage (36.8%), target share (22.6%), targets per route run (0.26) and first-read percentage (27.3%) in the previous two games would rank 17th, 19th, tied for 15th and 24th, respectively, for the full season.
In addition, his rate stats are more impressive within a pass-first offense. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Browns are third in situation-neutral pass rate (61%) this year, and that ticked up to 64% against the pass-funnel Ravens last week.
The second-year pro had a forgettable rookie campaign. However, Tillman had an excellent penultimate college season. According to PFF, Tillman had 86 targets, 64 receptions, 1,081 receiving yards, 2.46 yards per route run, 16.9 yards per reception and 12 touchdowns on 440 routes in 2021. So, Tillman has some prospect pedigree.
His underlying data is WR2 quality, but it’s reasonable to temper expectations and view him as a WR3 since the sample is only two games. Regardless, Tillman is a legitimate fantasy asset, and gamers shouldn’t give him away in trades. He’s a valuable starter and more than a throw-in piece for gamers putting him on the trade block. Tillman is also an enticing option to buy for wideout-needy teams, namely if Tillman’s manager isn’t entirely sold on his production the previous two games.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
