I was reeling after a 0-3 showing in Week 7, dropping my season line to 6-15. However, I rebounded in a big way in Week 8, nailing two of my three bold predictions, bringing my overall line to 7-16 (.304). I’m coming in at approximately where I’d like to for my season total, indicating my predictions aren’t too soft or tilting into the hot takes range. I’m feeling spicier this week, reflected in the following bold predictions.
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Fantasy Football Week 8 Bold Predictions
Bo Nix Outscores Lamar Jackson in Week 9
The Ravens are 8.0-point favorites against the cross-country-traveling Broncos. The betting info is a rule of thumb for projecting fantasy performances for quarterbacks. Additionally, Lamar Jackson is authoring an MVP-caliber season after winning his second MVP Award last season. Understandably, Jackson is the QB3 in expert consensus rankings (ECR) this week.
Meanwhile, rookie Bo Nix is the QB14. Frankly, the rankings make sense on the surface. Since Week 5, Jackson has been the QB1. However, Nix hasn’t been far behind as the QB4. Nix has also outscored Jackson in two of those contests.
It’s not outrageous to think Nix can outscore Jackson this week. First, if the game goes according to the betting info, the Ravens can force-feed Derrick Henry the ball, and Nix will need to drop back to play catch-up, providing opportunities for passing yards and scrambling yardage against a vulnerable defense.
Second, Baltimore has a pass-funnel defense incapable of stopping the pass. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Ravens are tied for the second-highest situation-neutral pass rate (63%) against them this year. They’ve also faced a 63% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 5, so teams aren’t slowing down with taking to the air against the team in purple and black.
The Ravens haven’t had answers for passing attacks. Baltimore has allowed enemy signal-callers the third-most fantasy points per game (21.9). According to Pro Football Reference, the Ravens permitted the most passing yards per game (311.6) and tied for the most passing touchdowns (2.13) yielded to quarterbacks this season. Nix should stay hot, and he can outscore Jackson if things break right.
Khalil Shakir is a Top-16 Wide Receiver in Half PPR and PPR in Week 9
Khalil Shakir is tied for the WR30 in half PPR and the WR23 in PPR in points per game this year, and his ECR is similar to both, ranking as the WR28 in half PPR and the WR27 in PPR this week. However, Shakir is coming off a WR15 finish in half PPR and a WR10 finish in PPR in Week 8 and can stay hot against the Dolphins.
Amari Cooper hasn’t lit the world on fire since joining the Bills. Yet, his addition has coincided with Buffalo opening up their offense. The Bills had a 52% situation-neutral pass rate through Week 6. Yet, they’ve upped that to a 61% situation-neutral pass rate in the past two weeks.
Shakir is an ideal matchup-fit against the Dolphins. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Shakir has a 73.5% slot rate this year, and Miami has faced the fourth-highest slot target rate (36.3%) since Week 5. Finally, Buffalo’s implied total (27.5 points) is tied for the highest this week, enhancing the touchdown outlook for all of Buffalo’s critical skill-position players, including Shakir. As a result, I expect him to be a mid to high-end WR2 this week in half PPR and PPR leagues and crack the top 16 at the position.
Mike Gesicki is a Top-12 Tight End in Half PPR and PPR in Week 9
Tee Higgins hasn’t practiced this week, so the stage for another absence is set. Mike Gesicki has thrived in games Higgins has missed this season. In three games (Week 1, Week 2 and Week 8) without Higgins, Gesicki was third on the Bengals in route participation (52.6%), first in air-yard share (21.9%), second in target share (20.6%), first in targets per route run (0.34), second in first-read percentage (25.3%), tied for second in end zone targets (two), second in receptions (17), first in receiving yards (182) and second in yards per route run (2.98).
So, Gesicki has averaged 5.7 receptions and 60.7 receiving yards per game without Higgins this season. His receptions and receiving yards averages in games without Higgins have resulted in 8.92 half PPR and 11.77 PPR points per game, and he would have ranked as the TE8 (Cade Otton is the TE8 with 8.5 half PPR points per game) and the TE5 (three players are tied for fifth with 11.1 in PPR) in half PPR and PPR points per game, respectively, for the entire season.
Gesicki is the TE23 in ECR in half PPR and PPR in Week 9. I’m much more bullish about his outlook in anticipation of Higgins sitting out and expect Gesicki to finish as a top-12 tight end in half PPR and PPR formats this week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.